Pitching staff xFIP

[mothershipconnection]

The issue is that defense can't be broken down cleanly into "error" and "non-error". There are so many other plays that don't show up, as we can't categorize phenomenal play, pretty darn good, solid, fair, weak, pretty crappy, and error. Ozzie Smith made a lot of plays that other guys never would, but it didn't really show up in their numbers since Ozzie didn't get extra credit and the other player didn't get an error for not making a play only a freak could make.

[Patrick425]

Yea, except that many (a majority?) of misplays by fielders aren't registered as errors.

I think this is way overused excuse for Fip. In reality, what percentage of misplayed balls are not classified as errors? People make it sound like fielders should make plays on any ball hit within 30 feet of them. 99.9% of the time the routine plays outnumber the bad and spectacular plays in a game and Fip ignores all of them.

 

Pitcher A: 7 IP, 10K, 5 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB

Pitcher B: 7 IP, 3K, 1 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB

 

Maybe I'm understanding Fip wrong, but I get the impression that Fip would say pitcher A is better than pitcher B. I don't get that.

 

Baseball is played with 9 players, not 1. I think it's reasonable that pitchers should be expected to be able to rely on his fielders and not be expected to K everyone. If a pitcher makes a good pitch on a hitter in a tough situation and gets him to ground into a DP, he should definitly get some credit for that. Sounds like Fip would just ignore that. Sounds like people are trying to reinvent the wheel with this stat.

[Patrick425]

Yea, except that many (a majority?) of misplays by fielders aren't registered as errors.

I think this is way overused excuse for Fip. In reality, what percentage of misplayed balls are not classified as errors? People make it sound like fielders should make plays on any ball hit within 30 feet of them. 99.9% of the time the routine plays outnumber the bad and spectacular plays in a game and Fip ignores all of them.

 

Pitcher A: 7 IP, 10K, 5 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB

Pitcher B: 7 IP, 3K, 1 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB

 

Maybe I'm understanding Fip wrong, but I get the impression that Fip would say pitcher A is better than pitcher B. I don't get that.

 

Baseball is played with 9 players, not 1. I think it's reasonable that pitchers should be expected to be able to rely on his fielders and not be expected to K everyone. If a pitcher makes a good pitch on a hitter in a tough situation and gets him to ground into a DP, he should definitly get some credit for that. Sounds like Fip would just ignore that. Sounds like people are trying to reinvent the wheel with this stat.

[Patrick425]

Yea, except that many (a majority?) of misplays by fielders aren't registered as errors.

I think this is way overused excuse for Fip. In reality, what percentage of misplayed balls are not classified as errors? People make it sound like fielders should make plays on any ball hit within 30 feet of them. 99.9% of the time the routine plays outnumber the bad and spectacular plays in a game and Fip ignores all of them.

 

Pitcher A: 7 IP, 10K, 5 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB

Pitcher B: 7 IP, 3K, 1 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB

 

Maybe I'm understanding Fip wrong, but I get the impression that Fip would say pitcher A is better than pitcher B. I don't get that.

 

Baseball is played with 9 players, not 1. I think it's reasonable that pitchers should be expected to be able to rely on his fielders and not be expected to K everyone. If a pitcher makes a good pitch on a hitter in a tough situation and gets him to ground into a DP, he should definitly get some credit for that. Sounds like Fip would just ignore that. Sounds like people are trying to reinvent the wheel with this stat.

[Ennder]

ERA just has way too much luck involved. How many balls fall for a hit, how many guys are on base when you give up a hit, how many runners your bullpen let in, mistakes made by your fielder that don't go as an error, which field you are playing in etc. ERA shows a very weak correlation from year to year so it is not a predictive stat. FIP and xFIP show stronger year to year correlations so they are more predictive. As I said in the original post though, they are flawed in their own ways and you pointed out one of them, GB%. Another flaw is that some pitchers have a sustained ability to strand more runners than normal and that doesn't show up in FIP.

 

With 1 year of data I find ERA almost meaningless, especially for a RP.

[Ennder]

ERA just has way too much luck involved. How many balls fall for a hit, how many guys are on base when you give up a hit, how many runners your bullpen let in, mistakes made by your fielder that don't go as an error, which field you are playing in etc. ERA shows a very weak correlation from year to year so it is not a predictive stat. FIP and xFIP show stronger year to year correlations so they are more predictive. As I said in the original post though, they are flawed in their own ways and you pointed out one of them, GB%. Another flaw is that some pitchers have a sustained ability to strand more runners than normal and that doesn't show up in FIP.

 

With 1 year of data I find ERA almost meaningless, especially for a RP.

[Ennder]

ERA just has way too much luck involved. How many balls fall for a hit, how many guys are on base when you give up a hit, how many runners your bullpen let in, mistakes made by your fielder that don't go as an error, which field you are playing in etc. ERA shows a very weak correlation from year to year so it is not a predictive stat. FIP and xFIP show stronger year to year correlations so they are more predictive. As I said in the original post though, they are flawed in their own ways and you pointed out one of them, GB%. Another flaw is that some pitchers have a sustained ability to strand more runners than normal and that doesn't show up in FIP.

 

With 1 year of data I find ERA almost meaningless, especially for a RP.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think it's reasonable that pitchers should be expected to be able to rely on his fielders and not be expected to K everyone.

 

Right, but patrick, why are you desiring - essentially - to punish the pitcher when his fielders aren't reliable? That doesn't make sense. In a vaccuum, ERA is the perfect stat. But since baseball isn't played in one, it has serious drawbacks.

 

Your stat line example is too unspecific to determine whose FIP would be better, iirc. You just have some random ER, but it's a good way to understand how ERA punished Cappy or Soup - if all those runs are earned, there's the chance (and with the 2007 Brewers, a very very good one) that some of the hits were plays that should have been converted into outs, but weren't, and weren't scored as errors.

99.9% of the time the routine plays outnumber the bad and spectacular plays in a game and Fip ignores all of them.

 

You have to ask yourself which is preferred though - punishing pitchers for easy plays that weren't turned into outs & weren't scored as errors (which is highly subjective anyway), or ignoring the impact of defense entirely and only focusing on what a pitcher can control...

Fielding Independent Pitching.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think it's reasonable that pitchers should be expected to be able to rely on his fielders and not be expected to K everyone.

 

Right, but patrick, why are you desiring - essentially - to punish the pitcher when his fielders aren't reliable? That doesn't make sense. In a vaccuum, ERA is the perfect stat. But since baseball isn't played in one, it has serious drawbacks.

 

Your stat line example is too unspecific to determine whose FIP would be better, iirc. You just have some random ER, but it's a good way to understand how ERA punished Cappy or Soup - if all those runs are earned, there's the chance (and with the 2007 Brewers, a very very good one) that some of the hits were plays that should have been converted into outs, but weren't, and weren't scored as errors.

99.9% of the time the routine plays outnumber the bad and spectacular plays in a game and Fip ignores all of them.

 

You have to ask yourself which is preferred though - punishing pitchers for easy plays that weren't turned into outs & weren't scored as errors (which is highly subjective anyway), or ignoring the impact of defense entirely and only focusing on what a pitcher can control...

Fielding Independent Pitching.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think it's reasonable that pitchers should be expected to be able to rely on his fielders and not be expected to K everyone.

 

Right, but patrick, why are you desiring - essentially - to punish the pitcher when his fielders aren't reliable? That doesn't make sense. In a vaccuum, ERA is the perfect stat. But since baseball isn't played in one, it has serious drawbacks.

 

Your stat line example is too unspecific to determine whose FIP would be better, iirc. You just have some random ER, but it's a good way to understand how ERA punished Cappy or Soup - if all those runs are earned, there's the chance (and with the 2007 Brewers, a very very good one) that some of the hits were plays that should have been converted into outs, but weren't, and weren't scored as errors.

99.9% of the time the routine plays outnumber the bad and spectacular plays in a game and Fip ignores all of them.

 

You have to ask yourself which is preferred though - punishing pitchers for easy plays that weren't turned into outs & weren't scored as errors (which is highly subjective anyway), or ignoring the impact of defense entirely and only focusing on what a pitcher can control...

Fielding Independent Pitching.

[Ennder]

Ok here is another look at the bullpen from a different angle... ZiPS projections!

 

Gagne - 3.60 ERA

Gallardo - 3.60 ERA

Sheets - 3.72 ERA

Riske - 3.80 ERA

Torres - 3.94 ERA (pirates projection)

Wise - 4.00 ERA

Turnbow - 4.08 ERA

---- League Average RP ---- 4.15 ERA

Shouse - 4.21 ERA

Parra - 4.31 ERA

Villanueva - 4.46 ERA

Capuano - 4.48 ERA

---- League Average SP --- 4.55 ERA

Bush - 4.64 ERA

Suppan - 4.76 ERA

McClung - 4.97 ERA

Vargas - 4.99 ERA

Mota - 5.06 ERA

 

ZiPS likes us to have 4 above average SP and 5 above average RP's. That would be a pretty big improvement over last season and in general ZiPS is generally harsh on pitching.

[Ennder]

Ok here is another look at the bullpen from a different angle... ZiPS projections!

 

Gagne - 3.60 ERA

Gallardo - 3.60 ERA

Sheets - 3.72 ERA

Riske - 3.80 ERA

Torres - 3.94 ERA (pirates projection)

Wise - 4.00 ERA

Turnbow - 4.08 ERA

---- League Average RP ---- 4.15 ERA

Shouse - 4.21 ERA

Parra - 4.31 ERA

Villanueva - 4.46 ERA

Capuano - 4.48 ERA

---- League Average SP --- 4.55 ERA

Bush - 4.64 ERA

Suppan - 4.76 ERA

McClung - 4.97 ERA

Vargas - 4.99 ERA

Mota - 5.06 ERA

 

ZiPS likes us to have 4 above average SP and 5 above average RP's. That would be a pretty big improvement over last season and in general ZiPS is generally harsh on pitching.

[Ennder]

Ok here is another look at the bullpen from a different angle... ZiPS projections!

 

Gagne - 3.60 ERA

Gallardo - 3.60 ERA

Sheets - 3.72 ERA

Riske - 3.80 ERA

Torres - 3.94 ERA (pirates projection)

Wise - 4.00 ERA

Turnbow - 4.08 ERA

---- League Average RP ---- 4.15 ERA

Shouse - 4.21 ERA

Parra - 4.31 ERA

Villanueva - 4.46 ERA

Capuano - 4.48 ERA

---- League Average SP --- 4.55 ERA

Bush - 4.64 ERA

Suppan - 4.76 ERA

McClung - 4.97 ERA

Vargas - 4.99 ERA

Mota - 5.06 ERA

 

ZiPS likes us to have 4 above average SP and 5 above average RP's. That would be a pretty big improvement over last season and in general ZiPS is generally harsh on pitching.