Andre Ethier

[Fatter than Joey]

I have high confidence that Braun will improve a great deal at 3rd. This year, he'll be an average 3rd baseman, next year he'll be slightly above average to good.

 

Players do not make this sort of improvements at Braun's age. This would be like saying -- TGJ will hit 20 HRs this coming year and next year he will hit 40.

 

Also, as it's been said before, he was historically bad last year. He's have to improve his defense 100% just to be bad at 3rd base instead of awful.

 

Do you know who this guy is? -- This is the last guy to play 3b as bad as Braun. You have to go back to freakin' tobacco cards.

 

http://www.ageslibrary.com/temp/worsethanBraun.jpeg

[paulmolitor4]

Comparing improvement on defense to improvement in offensive power numbers is like comparing apples to oranges. Players can work to improve their defensive skill set significantly. Arm strength is much harder to improve, but Braun obviously does not have that problem. It is much more difficult to improve your offensive power without the help of steroids. Nothing personal against anyone in particular, but I get really tired of hearing people say Braun cannot become a serviceable defensive third basemen. I have seen high school players go from being atrocious defensively to outstanding. I'm not saying Braun will be able to do this, but it is definitely possible. He's young, so he can learn and work to improve. Also you must consider how long he has been playing the position.

[theavrock]

Ever since he was drafted to play third, experts said that he does not project to play third. They said yes he does have the tools but he is not a natural thrid baseman and will struggle playing there. They said he should play in the OF where he would be much better suited. I have not read a single projection except for posters on this site saying that he will EVER be a good third baseman. Well what happens? Braun struggles in the minors and then comes to the major leagues and has the worst defensive season in 100 years or something ridiculous. I guess the experts don't know anything though and we should just hope and pray that he gets better.

 

Braun's defense is one of the reasons we did not make the playoffs last year. If he would have been simply average he would have been an asset and his bat would have been a huge advantage. Instead his porous defense negated that and basically provided the same thing Craig Counsell did. Great defense poor bat. You guys are simply being blinded by the amazing offensive numbers that he put up. He had a historically amazing offensive campaign and historically horrid defensive campaign. That makes him (and by most statistical metrics as well) average.

 

We are in a win now mode and can't sit around and wait for him to improve (if he ever does). He projects to be a good outfielder. Put him there and lets have him be the asset to this club we know he can be.

[TooLiveBrew]

Great post, avrock.

 

Players can work to improve their defensive skill set significantly.

 

Yes, but it doesn't guarantee any kind of improvement. I can work to improve my leaping significantly - but that doesn't mean I'll ever be able to dunk a basketball.

 

At best, you can hope for a marginal improvement by 2008. Plus, just on pure progression/regression, there's almost no way he's that bad again. But offensively he's likely to move toward the mean as well. He hit almost literally as well as possible in 2007, and negated appx. 75% of that with his horrid glovework. I want his phenomenal hitting to have as big an impact as possible next year, since it's one in which the division can really be ours to lose - and that means moving him to LF.

[Oldcity]

Thavrock pretty much sums it up perfectly.

[monty57]

I hope that Melvin makes a move soon. Whether Braun is going to play 3B or LF, he's going to need to spend every waking hour of the offseason practicing his defense. Every day that goes by without a move is one more day that Braun doesn't know where he's playing. If he's out shagging fly balls in LF right now, that's not going to help him increase his 3B defense if he ends up playing there, and vice versa. Bill Hall, who had played OF in the past, was named the starting CF the day after the season ended so he could practice all offseason, and he still didn't look like he knew what he was doing for half of last season.

[paulmolitor4]

Once again, people attempt to compare apples and oranges when debating Braun's potential for improvement defensively. Hitting for power and leaping ability are entirely different realms skill-wise when compared to fielding ability (outside of throwing strength). And as I mentioned before, Braun does not have a problem with throwing strength. It's his fielding and throwing accuracy. You need to have a basic understanding of gross motor skill development and biomechanics in order to understand the difference in skills and potential for improvement. There are skills that are heavily reliant on muscle power or strength such as hitting homeruns, or dunking a basketball, and there are skills that are more reliant on mechanics and motor memory such as fielding and throwing a baseball, or dribbling a basketball. Because the latter type of skill relies on mechanics and motor memory, this area can be developed and improved more effectively and efficiently than can throwing strength. Mechanical issues and motor memory issues can be practiced and you will see results much faster than lifting weights to improve muscle power or strength. Of course, athletic ability is a factor in motor skills, but can you question Braun's athletic ability? Think about it. Players take steroids to improve their strength for hitting homeruns, not to improve their defense. Power is difficult to improve significantly through practice and repititions, so players look for that extra edge. I'm not saying Braun will ever be a great third sacker, but he could develop into a solid one. Also I'm not against the idea of moving him to left field, but any scout who looks at Braun and says he does not have potential to be a solid third basemen needs to rethink their choice of occupation.

[theavrock]

Once again, people attempt to compare apples and oranges when debating Braun's potential for improvement defensively.I'm not saying Braun will ever be a great third sacker, but he could develop into a solid one. Also I'm not against the idea of moving him to left field, but any scout who looks at Braun and says he does not have potential to be a solid third basemen needs to rethink their choice of occupation.

 

Well I guess we should trust the biomechanics majors and not the scouts who do this for a living. Also when you listed qualities Braun currently you forgot, lack of range, natural instincts and footwork. Let me guess you think Rickie Weeks is a good defensive second baseman because he didn't make as many errors last year as before right? You yourself said you don't know if Braun will ever become a decent thrid basemen. We don't have time to wait and find out. We have a window to win and it is now. This isn't 2002 where we can afford to wait and see. I guess every scout who has written a report on Braun should find a new occupation because I have yet to see one saying he will be a good defensive third baseman.

[paulmolitor4]

My only quarrel is with those individuals (including scouts) who repeatedly say he CANNOT be a good third basemen. Even the best scouts have a low success rate in projecting players. It's an inexact science. That's why so many late round draft picks have successful careers. That said, I am in favor of acquiring somebody like Rolen, because such a move will probably make the Brewers a better team overall. I would also like to see us acquire Ethier and potentially a prospect from the Dodgers for Hall (just to stay on topic here). http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[And That]

My only quarrel is with those individuals (including scouts) who repeatedly say he CANNOT be a good third basemen. Even the best scouts have a low success rate in projecting players. It's an inexact science.

It's not that one scout said Braun didn't project as an MLB third baseman, it's that multiple scouts and others who have seen him play have said this. One scouting report, you sure can debunk. Two scouting reports that say similar things, maybe. However, when independent opinions start saying the same thing, you have to look at it as having some degree of likelihood.

 

[paulmolitor4]

To me, the opinions of the mob carry no more weight than one or two individuals' opinions. I think somebody famous once said something to the effect that "if you find yourself in the majority, you need to rethink your position". To use a football analogy: Not many scouts (if any) projected Tom Brady as a starting QB in the NFL. He was viewed as a serviceable back-up QB. Even the Patriots didn't think all that much of him, as they drafted him in the fifth round I believe. There is a great tendency to oversimplify an issue and jump to conclusions. We like easy answers and people to agree with us. On another note: Let's pick up Ethier!

[Tbadder]

The only thing I find in this whole debate as suspect is the idea that the Brewers have a window of opportunity. Opportunity to do what? Have a winning record? (Maybe, I guess if push came to shove I'd say it's better than 50% they win more than 81 times) Win a division? (Doubtful. Not without the cooperation of the other teams in the division via injuries, clubhouse problems, unexpected slides in production, etc.) Win a pennant? (Look. The Cards ruined it for us when the won the world series. It'll be another 50 years before a team that bad repeats that feat) Win a world series? (Impossible. How many times has a team with this poor of a combination of defense and pitching and situational offense won the whole taco?) I can't think of even one, but there are much smarter people here who might point that out.

 

Otherwise, both sides here seem to have really good points, and it'll probably come down to human ebb and flow, competitive balance theories, etc.) Interesting.

[Fatter than Joey]

There are skills that are heavily reliant on muscle power or strength such as hitting homeruns

 

Hitting for power is largely dependent on wrist speed and the ability to make solid contact.

 

My only quarrel is with those individuals (including scouts) who repeatedly say he CANNOT be a good third basemen.

 

I think when scouts make these reports they are doing so with an implied risk/reward weight.

 

if you find yourself in the majority, you need to rethink your position

 

Rethink certainly, adopt a bad idea, no.

 

To me, the opinions of the mob carry no more weight than one or two individuals' opinions.

 

When people over time and space draw the same conclusions it is hardly a mob mentality.

 

There is a great tendency to oversimplify an issue and jump to conclusions.

 

For what it's worth -- the first word that came to my mind when reading your first post was "oversimplified"