"The Book" Blog's Take on off Season Transactions

[rluzinski]

A mega thread of all the transactions so far. MGL and Tangotiger are two of the three authors of "The Book" and they are very active in this thread:

Sabermetric Moves of the 2008 Pre-Season

Did Tango like the Riske signing?

"Giving him 8 "complete games" and that puts him at +4 runs above replacement, which is 0.4 WAR. At that level, he is fantastically overpaid. Over the next 3 years, he'd be like a 0.7 WAR pitcher total, meaning a 3yr/5MM pitcher."

 

Ouch. Nothing on the Torres trade yet.

[Fatter than Joey]

I see they hated Gagne as well

 

I tend to agree with your comments though Russ, we had no internal options, and once we lost Cordero, I prefer the one year deal.

 

Melvin had to sign someone... Their analysis will be rendered meaningless if they crap on every single FA RP signing.

[rluzinski]

I had no problem with the analysis saying that Gagne was terribly overpaid for his likely 2008 production. It's impossible to argue against it. It's taking that next step and calling a Melvin stupid for signing the guy that I think is a diferent story. There are so many other factors to consider, especially when it's a one year deal. I am more or less indifferent on the signing. Gagne probably isn't going to much better than some other options Melvin had but there's a small chance he recaptures his past glory and even if he doesn't, it was a $7 mil mistake, anyway. Peanuts, these days.

 

Now, if you sign a guy to a 5 year, $100 mil deal, money vs. production becomes the most important aspect, far and away. You can't just say, "We'll have extra money in the budget in 2012 that we'll have no better use for."

[Fatter than Joey]

It's taking that next step and calling a Melvin stupid for signing the guy that I think is a different story.

 

That's what I primarily agreed with you on. The Brewers have no internal options, and I assume a trade just wasn't going to happen. I think DM knows he isn't in the most enviable BP situation, but he certainly isn't stupid for trying to make Lemonade with the best lemons he can find.

 

I'd rather that the Brewers sign Gagne, than force another Linebrink type of trade where we give up 3 prospects -- for perhaps a guy like Joe Nathan.

 

I liked the Gagne signing and the Riske signing made sense -- the Mota one is the one I don't get -- but there again -- one and done.

 

Well -- I read through that whole thread (albeit not entirely) and I didn't see one RP FA signing that they liked -- and at some point that will make their analysis useless.

 

It's almost as if they need to calibrate their analysis for reliever dollars.