Salomon Torres to MIL, Kevin Roberts & Marino Salas to PIT / Latest: Torres WILL report.

[Ennder]

Yep, I'm not a slave to the stats. Situational things like teams played for, injuries etc make me deviate from the pure statistical model and in my experience that has been a good thing. I also don't buy into slumps/hot streaks as much as most, sort of my own internal regression to the mean. As an example I expect 2006 ARod this year and not 2007 ARod which I consider more of a fluke from the hot april.

[LouisEly]

Wise at $1.2 millon>>>>Aquino or McClung at $450k

 

Wise has not given the Brewers as much as 20 IP post-all star break each/any of the last three seasons. Just a total of 48 innings combined post all-star break the last three years. 4.66 ERA post all-star break average over the last three years also. I just don't see that as being a significant upgrade over McClung. Wise can't go on consecutive days (so you almost can't have a 12-man staff with him) and hasn't proven that he can find the plate post-beaning, so to me that does not scream "worth $800K more than McClung", or worth $800K more than McClung's potential after working with Maddux for a while. All things being equal, I'll take the younger guy with more upside who can go on consecutive days if need be.

 

Given that Gagne was given Wise's number, I think that is a pretty good predictor of future events...

[Fear The Chorizo]

selective sabermetrics....sorta like scrapping everything and just going with your gut, isn't it?

[Hammer]

I'm with Ennder here. There is no doubt in my mind that the team that you are playing for makes a huge difference. The whole feeling of "do I really give a damn?" has to come in to play when you know that your franchise doesn't really care about winning...

[Ennder]

selective sabermetrics....sorta like scrapping everything and just going with your gut, isn't it?

There are no perfect stats and yes being selective is important, that doesn't mean going with your gut, it means looking at things in context. The example I assume rluzinski meant originally is Estrada who I defended when we traded for him. I wasnt' too worried about Estrada's 2005 because he played hurt the whole season. To me that makes that sample of data somewhat tainted. As it turns out he played hurt for at least half of 2007 too and I think his game outside of his offense is horrible so I'm glad we got rid of him.

 

McClung showed enough in the minors and for the Brewers that I think he is worth keeping and putting in the minors. I just think his minor league stats give a better picture than trying to pitch in the miserable situation that was TB the last few years. Greg Maddux was pretty terrible his first 180 IP in the majors too and look at how his career turned out, I just don't think McClung should just be thrown away just yet.

[Fatter than Joey]

rluzinski meant originally is Estrada who I defended when we traded for him.

 

Or perhaps Dave Bush.

 

McClung showed enough in the minors and for the Brewers that I think he is worth keeping and putting in the minors.

 

I agree McClung should be in Nashville -- put I wouldn't clear out Wise to make a spot for McClung

[Ennder]

Dave Bush was unlucky last year, that isn't going with my gut or being selective, it is simple truth. .680 DER did him in and anyone who watched the games should have been able to see it early in the season. So many blown plays leading to runs against him it wasn't even funny.

 

Bush and Capuano both got killed by the defense last year but part of the problem is all the extra base hits they give up, when the defense blows a play on them it is pretty easy for it to cause a big inning compared to a guy like Suppan who puts a lot of guys on but limits the dmg more via ISO. I was actually expecting Suppan to be hurt by our defense a lot more than he was.

[strawbossisevil]

I doubt that a guy like McClung would have tried any less while he was at TB, than he would while in Milwaukee. The truth of the matter is, he'd be working hard to play in the Major Leagues and earn a big paycheck. So, I really don't buy the difference, or a change in attitude.

[rluzinski]

There are no perfect stats and yes being selective is important, that doesn't mean going with your gut, it means looking at things in context.

 

I agree that performance shouldn't be looked at in a vacuum. I have no problem making adjustments to data based on its context, provided it can be justified with sound logic and statistical evidence (like it is with adjustments for league, division, park, player age, era, etc…). But if you can justify completely ignoring McClung's performance in Tampa bay without having any real evidence (beyond anecdotal, at least), you can justify anything.

 

If you want to claim that your player analysis of players is based on sound sabermetric principles, you can't just cherry pick a sample and offer up the resulting data as statistical proof. 95% of the time, you adhere to the rules just fine and if I don't agree with your opinion, I at least agree with your methodology. Once in awhile, though, you just start making up your own theories, without bothering to provide evidence supporting them except, "I have a good fantasy baseball team."

 

I agreed with you regarding Bush and Cappy. Estrada is a good example of you throwing out a (huge) sample but at least tried to justify it. With Kendall, you called his numbers with Oakland in 2007 "flukish" and suggested they should be just ignored. You can't do that, no matter how out of line they were with his career stats, at least if you want to adhere to the rules of sabermetrics.

[Ennder]

There is a pretty big difference between saying I like the signing and his odds of a rebound because the Oakland numbers are flukish and 'adhering to the rules of sabermetrics'. Not like I was running a sabermetric study and throwing out his stats.

[JJHardy7]

I've met McClung a few times and I can say with confidence he's not a guy that simply doesn't try. So that's out of the question.

 

One thing from talking to him is that he's been bounced from relief to starter during the minor leagues and majors. He doesn't use this as an excuse, but I got the feeling he'd like to know where he stands and if he's out of the bullpen I honestly believe he could be a solid guy out of the pen. I'm not saying McClung will be a legit closer in the bigs some day, but I don't think it's out of the question that he could be a set up guy for a team. The Brewers love his stuff -- the Nashville coaches were quite impressed with it and the Brewers made a point to start him in Nashville to get some more innings under his belt. I'm not saying he will get his control issues under his belt, but he's not an old guy at this stage and almost any pitcher that has the velocity he does will get every chance to be in the bigs.

 

I can roll with he wasn't used the best in Tampa, but eventually Seth is going to have to perform. I don't know if anyone here has had a chance to see him warm up in the pen in person, but I highly suggest it. This is a guy that if (and it's a big if) gets his control issues out of the way could be darn good. I think the Brewers should take some caution on the fact that a similar player (Sarfate) had some success with Houston (small sample). It would be nice to have Sarfate and McClung on the 40 man and not Aquino. I really believe one of the two (Sarfate or McClung) will be pitching in the bigs for the rest of their career.