Joe Dillon at 3B

[Milltownhooker]

Is he to brittle to be able to handle a starting 3B job or not enough range?

 

Could he give 120 games or more there?

[trwi7]

Does anybody want him there for 120 games? I sure don't.

[pogokat]

Joe's probably got some value...but he's really not any different from kevin orie...he's a 30+ year old minor leaguer who had a good year at AAA...i don't think we should count him him for anything at all...

 

which is not to say he won't be valuable...but if the team enters the year with him starting anywhere, i'll question melvin's sanity (and i'm fine with tad iguchi, for caomparisons sake)

[Milltownhooker]

OK thank you. I figured there was a good reason, but couldn't think of it. Probably similar to a Keith Ginter as well.

[twobrewers]

See "The Future of Joe Dillon" for related discussion...

 

This was basically the point I was making in that thread a month or so ago. Everyone seemed to agree that Joe Dillon has a realistic shot of putting up a .750 OPS. With a chance to even hit .800 OPS. (Warning: I am Pro-Dillon)

 

The funny thing is, every shot down the idea of Dillon as more than a back-up. Instead everyone suggest picking up a different player who will likely put up a .750 OPS.

 

ZIPS projections of Dillon for 2008 is .787

ZIPS projections of Rolen for 2008 is .728

 

I'm just saying...

[pogokat]

I understand where you are coming from twobrewers...i'd love for Joe to be the next Melvin Mora...i just think it's crazy to expect that to happen...if he his better than our starter, it will turn into more playing time...Ned is good at getting the bat that deserves to be in the lineup, in the lineup (eventually)...if Joe's carries an .800 OPS all year i bet he'll get 250 ab's...which is probably his best case scenario (realistically)

[logan82]

twobrewers wrote:

ZIPS projections of Dillon for 2008 is .787

ZIPS projections of Rolen for 2008 is .728

How accurate is a projection being made from Dillon's limited time in professional baseball? Yeah he has a higher projection, but Rolen has a large number of years and would be a safer bet to put up better numbers despite projections.

[danzig6767]

If we had traded for a guy like Blaylock and let him hit only vs righties, i'm fairly confident that Dillion could hit lefties well enough that we'd have a very effective platoon at third. Something similar to what we had with Koskie and Cirillo.

[twobrewers]

I just want to point out that I am not saying Joe Dillon should be the starting 3B.

 

I am just pointing out that I think Joe Dillon could end up being our best 3B next year. (Of course, that is assuming Braun moves to LF)

 

The truth is, Dillon might actually be more valuable off the bench. He can play OF, 1B, 2B and 3B.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the bench is his greatest value to us, and that's no knock on Joe. I'd look at it as him being a great fallback option at 3B should Rolen get hurt/need day(s) off. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

I think he'll probably take Graffy's role and I'd assume he puts up better numbers than graffy did last year.

[PlayerHader]

I don't know if I'd say he can play OF. Both he and the team are willing to have him out there, I would say.

[1992casey]

How accurate is a projection being made from Dillon's limited time in professional baseball?

I believe all the major projection systems except for Tangotiger's account for all recent professional playing time. Joe's AAA numbers have been phenomenal. The caveat in the ZIPS projection is that I'd bet on it not accounting for his year in Japan in 2006.

 

As pogo says, I wouldn't bet on him becoming the next Melvin Mora. But he shouldn't be overlooked either. He could be in line for significant playing time, but time spent as a starter should likely be as an injury replacement.

[hauser42]

I think he'll probably take Graffy's role and I'd assume he puts up better numbers than graffy did last year.

 

Agree with this the only thing Brewers would loose is the best guy at turning two from 2B on the team. Graffy was slightly better on the D but Dillions stick his a big upgrade.

[Thurston Fluff]

The only senario I'd like to see him as the starter is if he just flat out took it away from an as of yet unknown established veteran. If for instance we sign Blaylock and he puts up the numbers expected of him and Dillon is still better then it sould be one of those unexpected boosts that could really propell the team.

[dadofandrew]

I was very impressed with him, he has a short quick swing and it's good to see a 30+ guy succeed. I think he'll be handed a utility spot and I hope he does great. He can play 1B/2B/3B/LF/RF and in a pinch, could play SS/CF for a few games.

[TooLiveBrew]

He's a bad good choice, and a great bad choice. His bat & glove will play well off our bench. We're one OBP-heavy batter away from me feeling really great about 2008.

[TheCrew07]

Joe's probably got some value...but he's really not any different from kevin orie...he's a 30+ year old minor leaguer who had a good year at AAA...i don't think we should count him him for anything at all...

 

which is not to say he won't be valuable...but if the team enters the year with him starting anywhere, i'll question melvin's sanity (and i'm fine with tad iguchi, for caomparisons sake)

Pogo... come now.

 

He's hardly Kevin Orie. I viewed him pretty much the same way that you did all year, until I really started digging into his career. Most of the year the discussions about him took place on the Minor League forum in various link reports that I'm too lazy to go dig up, but I don't view him as a career minor leaguer at all. I openly admit I was fairly negative about him most of the first half.... That being said he had chronic back issues and was up and down year to year till he retired. He shut it down and then he had surgery and since he's come back he's been lights out at every stop. That's a pretty unique career path, I'd be hard pressed to find a similar career. Orie was great in small samples for his entire minor league career but in 13 seasons he only hit more than 10 HRs 4 times... the only full year (not including A- where he only played 19 games) Dillon didn't hit more than 10 HRs was 2002 right before he retired. He's hit 39, 24, and 20 HRs since returning to pro ball, and while his HR has declined significantly from 39 to 20, so have the SOs from 114 to 34, but I should mention his ABs did decline as well. In my opinion Dillon changed his game and has reinvented himself while Orie was the same player every year for the most part, his stats just fluctuated with his ABs... now you can say that his HR totals would have been higher had he played more in certain years, but in Orie's highest AB season at 509 ABs, he only hit 13 HR. Dillon hit 39 HRs in 520 ABs in the season with the most ABs (2004). I just view them as completely dissimilar players.

 

I'm fine with Dillon on the roster and it doesn't matter to me where he plays, I'm comfortable predicting that he'd give us a .750+ OPS regardless where he plays or how much he plays. If he ends up starting, that's fine by me, unlike many others I do not want the Crew to aquire Rolen. I'd trade some decent prospects like a Gamel/Parra/Vargas/others combo for young prospect 3B with upside, but that's a tall order. Corner prospects are hard to come by, just the like Crew trading away Braun or Fielder was nuts... In a perfect world he's a very solid bench player, if he ends up in LF or 3B... I'm alright. In my opinion the season hinges on the pitching, and while you can never have too many bats, our offense should be pretty good as it stands. Adding another bat would be huge, and might inspire me to buy another 4 pack of tickets, but I won't get bent out of shape if Doug has trouble turning surpless arms into a quality bat.

[TooLiveBrew]

If we had traded for a guy like Blaylock and let him hit only vs righties, i'm fairly confident that Dillion could hit lefties well enough that we'd have a very effective platoon at third. Something similar to what we had with Koskie and Cirillo.

 

I've been thinking... with the buzz on Blalock right now, I really think that Doug might be settled that the best option short of Rolen for 3B is a Blalock/Dillon platoon. It really might be nice - it'd keep Joe D. available off the bench for the vast majority of games. Then again, any platoon has the Ned factor, so that's obviously an obstacle. While it'd be preferrable to have a 3B that can hit LHP & RHP *cough - Rolen - cough*, if the only realistic solution is a platoon, this would likely be a strong one.

[brettac1]

I'd like to see them sign Ensberg to platoon with Blalock.

[TooLiveBrew]

Good idea, but what's the health status on Ensberg? Iirc his shoulder WOAHs were bad.

[logan82]

I am sure Blalock/Dillon 3B>Braun 3B defensivley, but would a Blalock/Dillon 3B platoon outhit a Gross/Dillon LF paltoon by enough to justify giving up a SP that we control for several years plus prospects in trade?

[TooLiveBrew]

The SP to offer in a Blalock deal would be Vargas, wouldn't it? For me, logan, the question isn't about the offensive production, but that we'd save Braun from himself at 3B - not letting him negate so much of his beautiful, beautiful offense. I really don't think it'd take much more than Vargas + TGJ to net Blalock.

[logan82]

Vargas and TGJ I could live with. I really don't like the idea of trading SP for a platoon player. I would prefer to keep as much SP as possible for next year when we lose Sheets and most of the relievers we picked up this year. Put all we can in AAA outside of Villanueva and Gallardo. Plus you can count me as one of the "give Braun one more year at 3B" guys.

[pogokat]

I think we need a defensive minded 3b...this team has plenty of offense...a defensive minded left side of the infield will do more for this team than getting am .800 OPS from blalock/dillon..

 

if we could get a .730 ops and above average defense at 3b, i think it would improve the team as much or more as having a slighlty better stick..

 

there are no difference makers available at 3b... or in LF for what we have to give up/spend...however, we can greatly improve the defense, which will help bring the runs allowed down, and improve the run differential, which will make the team better...

 

is joe a good defensive 3b? maybe, but that's definitely not been something we've heard much about if he is...