Tejada close to going to the Stros?

[fondybrewfan]

I am calling this crap but anyways:

 

Astros Get:

 

Tejada

 

Orioles get:

 

Chris Burke

Adam Everett

a Pitcher?

 

Unless that pitcher is Roy Oswalt that is an absolute joke of a trade

 

mlbtraderumors.com

[trwi7]

Ha! The O's would get royally screwed if this trade went down. That pitcher better be Oswalt, or at least Troy Patton.

[SoCalBrewfan]

If that's what it takes, I hope Mr. Melvin has talked to the O's...we could top that and slide Tejada to 3b...some risk, to be sure, but less than Rolen I'd think. Tejada's owed 2/$26M plus some deferred money from his signing bonus.

[TCSM]

thats like us throwing in dillion and gross plus a prospect.

[TURBO]

If that's what it takes, I hope Mr. Melvin has talked to the O's...we could top that and slide Tejada to 3b...some risk, to be sure, but less than Rolen I'd think. Tejada's owed 2/$26M plus some deferred money from his signing bonus.

or, since we are sliding players all over the place, we can slide Hardy to 3B and keep Tejada at SS? Not that I'd want to do that, but it is a thought none the less. MT at 13 million a year for 2 years is better than Rolen imo.

[cooprules]

I'm listening to the Houston station right now. They're already guessing their lineup but also admitting it's just a rumor. And they have no idea what they'd be giving up. They're just guessing.

[fondybrewfan]

Frankly I see no way they could get him unless they gave up Pence, Wandy, or Patton. THeir pitching is going to be dreadful next year if they giv eup Wandy or Patten. Who would they even through out their besides Oswalt?

[crewcrazy]

There's probably a good chance that the pitching prospect is Patton, in which case it wouldn't be a horrible trade for the Orioles. Tejada's really gone downhill in recent years, though, so it wouldn't surprise me if that's all it took to get him, especially with the contract he's carrying and the potential Mitchell Report stuff.

[hauser42]

There's probably a good chance that the pitching prospect is Patton, in which case it wouldn't be a horrible trade for the Orioles. Tejada's really gone downhill in recent years, though, so it wouldn't surprise me if that's all it took to get him, especially with the contract he's carrying and the potential Mitchell Report stuff.

If it is Patton this is a fair trade. Burke could replace Roberts if the O's are serious about moving him. Everett becomes the starting SS and the defense goes up for Baltimore.

Baltimore is has been trying to move Tejada for a while and he is made comments about leaving so they might not take equal value to move him and his contract. Soon he will be a 3B and who knows how he will do or like it.

[dpapo]

This appears to be another false rumor according to Ken Rosenthal. However, if you want to know why the Orioles have struggled the way they have, check out the deal that owner Peter Angelos vetoed in July of 2006. He also vetoed a trade last winter that would have sent Brian Roberts to Pittsburgh for Adam LaRoche and Marcus Giles.

 

"The Astros have had significant discussions with the Orioles about shortstop Miguel Tejada, but the two sides are not close to a deal, according to major-league sources.

The Astros apparently believed a trade was possible Wednesday night, telling at least two other clubs that they were on the verge of a major deal. It is not clear whether their focus was Tejada.

Astros officials said Thursday morning that nothing was imminent, suggesting perhaps that the talks had faded. Other sources also indicated that the discussions were not in an advanced phase.

A Houston radio station reported Thursday that the Astros were close to acquiring Tejada for shortstop Adam Everett, second baseman Chris Burke and a pitcher.

Such a return would not be nearly enough for the Orioles, according to one source. Andy MacPhail, the team's president of baseball operations, would need to be "overwhelmed" for Tejada, the source said.

The Astros' interest in Tejada dates to July 2006, when they tried to acquire him for Roy Oswalt, only to have the deal quashed by Orioles owner Peter Angelos.

Everett was one reason Angelos vetoed the deal; the Astros included him in their offer for Tejada, and Angelos did not want him. "

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7532262?MSNHPHMA

[Ennder]

If the pitcher is Oswalt it is a complete steal for the Orioles though. Tejada is declining and Everett is the best defensive SS in the game even if he cannot hit a lick.

[TheCouga23]

I would pass on Tejada if I were the Brewers. He has really declined the last few years, and is nothing more than a league average 3B right now. I've heard bad stuff about his attitude, as well. And his OBP is kind of bad as well. Rolen, at this point, actually has more upside.

[danzig6767]

There's probably a good chance that the pitching prospect is Patton, in which case it wouldn't be a horrible trade for the Orioles. Tejada's really gone downhill in recent years, though, so it wouldn't surprise me if that's all it took to get him, especially with the contract he's carrying and the potential Mitchell Report stuff.

Tejada has really gone downhill?

 

Last year he posted a .800 OPS and the two years prior were .878/.865, how is that going really downhill? His contract also isn't some big anchor that the Orioles should be desperate to move, 2yr/26 is hardly a horrible deal given the explosion in salaries. My guess is if he was a free agent, Tejada would get at least the same money or even more. Plus, he's only 31 years old, not 37 to where you would need to fear he's nearly shot as a player.

 

He hit .296 last year with a .357 OBP, it was really just his slugging to went down some. In fact, when Melvin mentioned he wanted a professional hitter, Tejada fits alot of what Melvin said he wanted. High batting average hitter that gets on base and doesn't K to much. Unless Tejada was involved with PED's, i'd love to see him in a Brewers uniform next year depending on what the O's wanted in return.

 

As for the Astro's, i see almost zero chance Oswalt would be included. I do hope Doug at least checks into Tejada.

[TooLiveBrew]

He hit .296 last year with a .357 OBP, it was really just his slugging to went down some.

 

But as the SLG slips, the OBP follows. What's more troubling is that his ISO took a huge dip ('05 - .224, '06 - .211, '07 - .168), much greater than the dip in his SLG%. Tejada's on the wrong side of 30, and I for one don't believe that he's only going to be 32 in 2008 - conspiracy theorist though I may be. Given that idea, the fact that his SLG slipped significantly from '06 to '07 really worries me. I think he can likely still be north of .800 OPS in 2008, but by how much I'm not sure, and that worries me for 2009 as well.

 

I'll admit I'm being picky, but all in all he'd probably be a solid addition at 3B - as long as his trade cost isn't too high, obviously. One thing that is a roadblock in assessing Tejada's 2007 is that he was injured. I expect Hall to bounce back from his injury-altered season, and even though Bill's younger, I think I'd expect a boucne-back from Miguel, too. But if that ISO stays low/dropping, watch out.

[danzig6767]

I would pass on Tejada if I were the Brewers. He has really declined the last few years, and is nothing more than a league average 3B right now. I've heard bad stuff about his attitude, as well. And his OBP is kind of bad as well. Rolen, at this point, actually has more upside.

Two of the last three years his OPS was above .860 and 05/06 were the two highest OPS years of his career outside of 2004, where is the he has really declined the last few years? In my book, if you have two of your best years ever, those seasons shouldn't be used for showing signs of decline.

 

As for his OBP being bad, since when is .349/.379/.357 being "bad" at getting on base?

 

Finally, you say Rolen has more upside. He is coming off his third shoulder operation while Tejada has been healthy and two of the last three years Rolen has put up OPS numbers of .706/.729, while the worst one for Tejada is .800 and he's a year younger than Rolen. Anyone who says Rolen has the ability to bounce back and have a good year/years has to say the same for Tejada given he's only 31 and prior to him only having a solid season last year, had two very good seasons prior to that.

 

If i had to put money on which guy has better years in 2007/2008, i'd have to bet on the younger one who isn't coming off his third shoulder operation. The only caveat to that would be if it's shown Tejada was taking PED's.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yea, except that in all likelihood Rolen and the vast, vast majority of MLB guys have used PEDs too.

[ILuvDaBush]

Tejada was at one time, the closest player in terms of being an Iron Man. To compare Miggy to Rolen is like comparing Donnie Mac to Peyton Manning.

[TheCouga23]

Two of the last three years his OPS was above .860 and 05/06 were the two highest OPS years of his career outside of 2004, where is the he has really declined the last few years? In my book, if you have two of your best years ever, those seasons shouldn't be used for showing signs of decline.

 

As for his OBP being bad, since when is .349/.379/.357 being "bad" at getting on base?

Tejada's OPS+ the last four years in succession: 131, 128, 126, 109. It's a steady decline. His career OBP is .344. It's not terrible, but it's not good, either. It's certainly not $13MM per year good. Even .357 is stretching it. Rolen's career OBP is 30 points higher and his career slugging average is about 30 points higher as well. That's what I mean by Rolen has more upside. I wouldn't be terribly upset if we ended up with Tejada, but if his OBP drops any farther than .357, that's not going to be good.

As far as contract and money, I'm assuming that if we get Rolen, it will only be if St. Louis covers some of his contract, and we get him for about $10MM per year. That's like 3 years, 30 million. I would still take that risk over Tejada. I doubt Angelos would agree to any deal where he has to eat salary, though.

 

But I guess it's just a matter of who you think will rebound. Either one wouldn't be terrible, but my preference is definitely Rolen.

 

Edit: Furthermore, Rolen is better on defense. I would have a lot more confidence in a 7-time gold glove winner than an aging guy who is trying to learn a new position.

[danzig6767]

Two of the last three years his OPS was above .860 and 05/06 were the two highest OPS years of his career outside of 2004, where is the he has really declined the last few years? In my book, if you have two of your best years ever, those seasons shouldn't be used for showing signs of decline.

 

As for his OBP being bad, since when is .349/.379/.357 being "bad" at getting on base?

Tejada's OPS+ the last four years in succession: 131, 128, 126, 109. It's a steady decline. His career OBP is .344. It's not terrible, but it's not good, either. It's certainly not $13MM per year good. Even .357 is stretching it. Rolen's career OBP is 30 points higher and his career slugging average is about 30 points higher as well. That's what I mean by Rolen has more upside. I wouldn't be terribly upset if we ended up with Tejada, but if his OBP drops any farther than .357, that's not going to be good.

As far as contract and money, I'm assuming that if we get Rolen, it will only be if St. Louis covers some of his contract, and we get him for about $10MM per year. That's like 3 years, 30 million. I would still take that risk over Tejada. I doubt Angelos would agree to any deal where he has to eat salary, though.

 

But I guess it's just a matter of who you think will rebound. Either one wouldn't be terrible, but my preference is definitely Rolen.

 

Edit: Furthermore, Rolen is better on defense. I would have a lot more confidence in a 7-time gold glove winner than an aging guy who is trying to learn a new position.

 

 

What does Tejada's career OBP have to do with anything? I've never understood why so many people use the career numbers of a fairly long term vet when evaluating a player in the present, like what a player did a 6-7-8 years ago even relates at all to what kind of player he is now, for the better or worse. If i'm talking about signing say Greg Maddux and trying to gauge his worth right now, i wouldn't say lets get him, he has a career 3.11 ERA.

You say Rolen has a career OBP that's 30 points higher than Tejada like that should be more relevant than what's happened lately, the last three years or so.The last three years OBP

Rolen---.323/.369/.331

Tejada--.349/.379/.357

 

In each of the last three years, Tejada had a better OBP and in two of them by a sizable margin. On top of that, regardless of the fact Tejada has a career .344 OBP, the last four seasons he's been above that by quite a bit except for one at .349. This is very common where a players numbers earlier in their career are lesser and thus drag down their career stats or higher and inflate their career stats, but those earlier numbers aren't that telling on who that player is now, thus i'm not sure what the reason is for using the career stats over say the last three years. Same goes for Rolen. He has a career .372 OBP, but hasn't been that high in three years and two of the years 40 and 50 points short.

 

As for Tejada being in a steady decline, prior to an injury hampered season last year, in 2006 he posted an .878 OPS, the second highest of his career. Sorry if posting an .878 OPS doesn't reek of a guy in big decline to me.

 

Contract wise, obviously Baltimore won't eat any salary on Tejada and they would have no reason to. He isn't coming off a third shoulder surgery and two of three poor seasons. In todays market, Tejada would easily get a 2yr/26 million dollar contract if he was a free agent. Rolen given his health concerns, likely couldn't fetch the 3yr/36 million we'd have to pay him.

 

I'd gladly take either because of need, but don't agree with you that Tejada would be more risky, not with Rolen's health concerns. Rolen possibly could play better, but coming off those surgeries, he's also a much bigger risk to be a complete bust than Tejada. Rolen very well could repeat those sub- .730 OPS years or even worse, miss a ton of games.

[dpapo]

I believe Haudricourt mentioned that Melvin did look into Tejada, but that the Orioloes were asking for too much. I've seen other teams possible interested in Tejada say the same thing.

The Oswalt reference dates back to a deal the Orioles and Astros had agreed to in July of 2006, not at these winter meetings. The Orioles and Astros had a trade agreement that would have sent Oswalt, Everett and a third player to Baltimore for Tejada, however the trade was vetoed by Peter Angelos. Of course, the Orioles plan was to then trade Oswalt to Texas.

From what I have been able to read, the Orioles are looking for young, major league ready players.