Alfred E. Neuman School of Managing

[cwolf2012]

"option B should be Dave Bush IMO"

 

------------

 

Agreed. I'd really like to see just how good he can be as a reliever, when he doesn't have 6 innings to blow up eventually. The guy had a 1.14 WHIP in 2006, and showed that same skill for 5/6 innings he pitched. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bush led the team in scoreless innings pitched this year, right?

[Thurston Fluff]

Just pull him if he lets one man get on base is a great idea. That means you have to have someone else up and warm every time Turnbow comes in. That should do wonders preventing the bullpen form getting overworked. It's a good idea in hteory but I'd be willing to bet Ted Simmons would be wondering what Yost is smoking if he did that everytime. I also find it hard to believe Turnbow never got out of an inning unscored upon after a leadoff walk. In fact I know he's done it at least once since I watched it on the last nationally broadcast game last year.

 

He doesn't need a crystal ball, just to take a look at a usage chart of TBow. It's really not that hard.

I've read this before and don't necessarily disagree. I would like to see someone actually post these usage charts though before I just accept it truthfullness. Not trying to be a butthead or anything it's just sometimes things get repeated enough they become conventional wisdom so I'm usually skeptical without evidence. This may be true or it may be similar to Yost abused his relievers by putting them in too many games or too many innings which turned out to be false.

[cwolf2012]

How many times do you see only one pitcher warming up at a time? It's absolutely feasible and should be a non-issue.

[Thurston Fluff]

How many times do you see only one pitcher warming up at a time? It's absolutely feasible and should be a non-issue.

 

Pretty much every time a closer goes into the game. It happens more times late in the game than in the middle. Most of the times you see two relievers up at the same time it's a lefty and righty for possible matchups. I'd be willing to bet it's way over 50% of the time where only one man is up late in the game. Add in that extra 50% to the bullpen usage and see what happens. Add in the fact that the 9th with a man on means you are not going to be trotting any other pitcher in but the best one available. Does that mean you warm up Riske everytime Turnbow gets up? Or since he was probably used in the setup role do you always use the third best reliever. It just isn't feasable to work a pen that way. If Yost is given Turnbow he has to hope Turnbow can do the job every other closer does...come in shut the door without a safety net. I'm sure Yost will get blamed if it doesn't work. He should have done this or that or had some sort of exotic plan to only put pitchers in perfect situations for them to succeed. Never mind the fact that there will be situations virtually every game that doesn't fit the ideal situation. The real truth would be Melvin failed to give Yost someone he can actually use the way normal relievers get used.

[sweepscc]

Do we want a guy with a 1.40 WHIP to be our safety valve(Dave Bush)? I think if we're really going to go into this season with T-bow closing we need at least one more quality bp arm.

[Thurston Fluff]

Do we want a guy with a 1.40 WHIP to be our safety valve(Dave Bush)? I think if we're really going to go into this season with T-bow closing we need at least one more quality bp arm.

 

and about ten guys with potnetial who have yet to put it all together waiting in AAA. When it comes to relief the more the merrier.

[cwolf2012]

I edited this into my last post, but I doubt anyone will see it. As such, I'm going to repeat it.

 

Am I correct in saying Dave Bush led the team in scoreless innings pitched last year? He may have been 2nd behind Sheets, but I doubt it. If so, then I'd love to see how he could do in a relief position, where he doesn't have 5 innings in one game in which to blow up.

[Ennder]

Option B is the guy who has pitched the best until that point most likely.

[Tbadder]

I'll tell you what. I'll be disappointed if Luis Pena doesn't break with the team next April.

Backupcatchers: You're not alone. Whenever anyone agrees with me more than a few times, they begin to feel slightly vomitty. Sorry dude. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

It's been past "We're a year away" for almost two years with the Brewers. Time to go for it.

 

I thought the 2007 club was the first legitimate shot the Brewers had at even being over .500, so I guess my perspective is way different than yours. That 2005 club over achieved and still only won 81 games. I think the 2008 team has a chance at being special but I also think the 2009 and 10 team does as well. It's not necessary to put all their eggs in one basket yet.

[danzig6767]

I'm not quite sure Brewer fans are thinking when they boo Turnbow. I don't think anyone, himself included, is happy with his progress. But having said that, Derrick has to be given a chance again. He needs all the support he can get.

There are a couple of reasons i don't want Turnbow at closer and this is one of them.

I was disgusted at the way our home fans would boo Turnbow almost anytime he had a bad outing. He seems like such a nice guy that was trying his hardest to get outs and help the team win, he simply struggles with command at times. Turnbow also seems emotional and to have his fans not only boo him, but viciously boo him, you could see it affect him on the mound.

It is what it is though, Turnbow is a lightning rod to Milwaukee fans and unfortunately i don't see the booing coming to an end unless he's lights out nearly every game. Say we have a 8 game homestand and he blows a save and the next night walks the leadoff hitter on four pitches, the crowd will almost surely start raining boos on him. If he blows that save to, it will get flat out ugly in Miller Park and i could see that sending Turnbow into a tailspin given how emotional he is.

 

I'm not saying we need to trade for a veteran closer, but i'd rather Turnbow not be given the role from the start because i think it would likely be only a matter of when he would need to be replaced in the closer role, not if.

[logan82]

I have given it a little thought and this is how I would set up a bulpen.

1. Rank all your relievers

2. Split them up into 3 categories. LOOGYs, 1 inning guys, multiple inning guys

3. Your closer is the best 1 inning reliever who is not the top reliever.

So if in 1 you had Turnbow as the top reliever then the 2nd best 1 inning reliever becomes the closer. The closer gets set as the guy who comes into the game in the final half inning of the game when the lead is 3 or less.

 

This leaves you flexability with your best reliever. To me the most imprtant of the bulpen is having 2 guys who can go multiple innings form the 5th inning on. That way if they are pitching well they can finish out the game without going to another reliever. Having 2 guys means you don't have to blow out on guy using him day after day. This is not all thought out yet, but just a rough idea.

[TooLiveBrew]

I like that system, logan. Too bad there's just no chance it'll be employed. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"His numbers with runners on base were particularly alarming. Opponents hit .241 off Turnbow with men on base, and .345 with runners in scoring position. That has to change if Turnbow is to be an effective closer.

 

"I think that was an anomaly,"Yost said. "If he ends up winning the closer's job, there are going to be times he is asked to come in in the eighth inning with two outs. That can't be a limitation on him."

 

Why would Yost choose to marginalize and dismiss this? It's a definitive symptom of Turnbow's problems the last 1 1/2 seasons.

 

OK, now we all know Ned's not going to seek out a microphone, and start peeing himself in fright. But I would hope he'd honestly say "That IS a concern, and it's something we'll be working on with Derrick." Or even, "Well, that was last year. We expect him to be more focused and confident next season."

 

But no, Ned calls it an anomaly, as if it was a rare circumstance, an arbitrary occurence which just happened to befall Turnbow, as if our "lightning rod" was actually struck by lightning on the mound.

 

Ned's response tells me that he'll ride Turnbow like a mule next year, maybe 75 games, in 100% of the save situations "because Derrick has a plus fastball, and closer's stuff."

 

I'm convinced Ned will cost us a playoff spot next year.

 

"He seems like such a nice guy that was trying his hardest to get outs and help the team win, he simply struggles with command at times. Turnbow also seems emotional and to have his fans not only boo him, but viciously boo him, you could see it affect him on the mound."

 

And that's sad, danzig, I admit.

 

But shouldn't a closer have the proverbial "ice water in his veins"; the ability to tune out distractions? Closers should be able to harden up and just shrug off that last bad outing. Turnbow's outer shell is apparently about as thick as a cobweb.

 

 

 

"For God sakes dont jump off of a ledge people, there is 3 months of offseason left, we have an incredibly group of young talent that is only going to get better, and we play in the NL Central. Please explain to me why I am suppose to jump off of a ledge?"

 

Fondy, I challenge you to be completely truthful with an answer here:

 

Weren't you also among the crowd who scolded us who worried when the Brewers' lead began to slip in August? "We're still in first place, people!"

[rluzinski]

Ned's response tells me that he'll ride Turnbow like a mule next year, maybe 75 games, in 100% of the save situations "because Derrick has a plus fastball, and closer's stuff."

 

I think Ned and Melvin just say whatever they think will calm the masses. I don't think their public comments about particular players say much at all.

[valpocrewsader]

I will never get over Turnbow walking a guy with a pitcher's hitting numbers, with the bases loaded, in the heat of a late season "pennant race", in his home park this past season. I didn't care for him much before, but after that, I'm done. He can go pound sand. Him being our 2008 closer wouldn't surprise me in the least, though -- I pretty much expect such embarassment from the Brewers. Hall in CF, Braun in LF, Turnbow closing, Weeks still flailing around out there, Prince stone-handing it up, Kendall letting every starting pitcher we face grab their first career stolen base ... maybe they'll move the games from FSN to Comedy Central.

[don1481]

I think Ned and Melvin just say whatever they think will calm the masses. I don't think their public comments about particular players say much at all.

 

Russ, you actually think that Ned's believes that his comments calm the masses...? I think Ned shoots from the hip and doesn't care at all if anyone dares disagree with him. Check that - he does care... look at how he runs his press conferences.

[TooLiveBrew]

Him being our 2008 closer wouldn't surprise me in the least, though -- I pretty much expect such embarassment from the Brewers. Hall in CF, Braun in LF, Turnbow closing, Weeks still flailing around out there, Prince stone-handing it up, Kendall letting every starting pitcher we face grab their first career stolen base ... maybe they'll move the games from FSN to Comedy Central.

Vent thread or Cubs' fan board, please. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif Sheesh. Is it possible to be more negative?

[rluzinski]

Russ, you actually think that Ned's believes that his comments calm the masses...? I think Ned shoots from the hip and doesn't care at all if anyone dares disagree with him. Check that - he does care... look at how he runs his press conferences.

 

No, you are right. Melvin lies to calm the masses. Yost just says whatever falls out of his mouth at the time. Neither gives us insight.

[1992casey]

Why would Yost choose to marginalize and dismiss this? It's a definitive symptom of Turnbow's problems the last 1 1/2 seasons.

The runners on / runners in scoring position comment doesn't make sense to me, either, Geno. The reason Derrick's RISP against numbers were so bad is that he had already melted down in the process of putting those runners into scoring position.

 

Two rules:

1. The only time Derrick should be allowed to continue after allowing the first two runners to reach is if they reach on "god-given" singles.
2. Derrick shouldn't appear in games two days in a row.

Follow those rules and you have a guy who can help the team... not enough to be a closer, but enough to be useful and even good under the right circumstances.

[TooLiveBrew]

The TBow rules. If only it could be true... *sigh*

[Tbadder]

No, you're right. There should be TBow rules. Every manager should utilize his talent to the best of his ability. In other words their should be 25 managers not one. Peter Gammons was saying the same thing about Terry Francona's success. He's deft enough to change his style given the particular situation, and the particular human beings.

[Fatter than Joey]

OK, now we all know Ned's not going to seek out a microphone, and start peeing himself in fright. But I would hope he'd honestly say "That IS a concern, and it's something we'll be working on with Derrick." Or even, "Well, that was last year. We expect him to be more focused and confident next season."

 

Yeah -- I found this and posted it on my blog:

 

Brewers manager Ned Yost is convinced that Derrick Turnbow can succeed in a return to the closer's role if two things happen:

Turnbow must cut down his walks.

And fans need to give him a break.

"I wish everybody would just leave the kid alone," Yost said on Wednesday at the Winter Meetings, where he gave an impassioned defense of the criticism that has been aimed at Turnbow.

 

Of course once again -- it's the fans' fault. I hate that Turnbow gets booed -- but I don't think Yost talking about it at the Winter Meetings, is going to do anything to alleviate that.

 

Then Yost went on to say this.

 

"You break it down, how many bad outings did he have? Eight or 10? There's not many perfect people left in the world. For me to look for one in a closer, I'm not going to find him."

 

Of course the idea of there being two options, Turnbow & Perfection is just a silly thing to say.

 

Out of interest I went through Turnbow's gamelog for 2007. I focused mainly on how many outs Turnbow recorded and how many batters he faced. I didn't pay any attention to BS, Holds or saves. I roughly estimate that 17 outings of Turnbow's outings were "not good/bad" in 2007. I realize that this isn't the most subjective way of looking at it, but I think that number of "bad outings" is closer to 20 than to 10.

[Ennder]

Turnbow's stats are almost exactly the same with RISP as without anyone on for his career. I think Yost is correct in saying that it probably is just a fluke myself. Sure his stats were ugly last year but that is a 66 PA sample which is almost meaningless.

 

In 64 PA's Turnbow absolutely destroyed the league with a runner on 1st and the other bases empty. Does that somehow mean he's amazing in that situation or is it more likely that 64 PA's just don't tell you much.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think Yost is correct in saying that it probably is just a fluke myself.

 

You are sort of vague here -- Are you talking about 66PA with RISP? -- I am not sure what the fluke is/was. Turnbow is averaging 6BBs/9IP over the last 2 seasons -- a lot of the RISP that he faced were of his own doing. Turnbow's biggest problem is BBs, and I tend to think generally that BBs are less fluke driven.

 

Sure his stats were ugly last year but that is a 66 PA sample which is almost meaningless.

 

Well -- that is why the game log needs to be examined IMO. I don't think that there is a magical solution like "bring Turnbow in with 0 runners on", or "never pitch Turnbow back to back" -- I think those things are situational coincidences -- Turnbow got into plenty of jams with no runners on/starting an inning off.

 

I think Turnbow is what he is -- a pitcher that has a lot of problems locating his breaking pitches, he can't locate his fastball and then gives up walks/hits.

 

I think that Turnbow pitched in 2007 much like he did in 2006. I think the big difference was, in 2007, he always had CoCo backing him up.