Alfred E. Neuman School of Managing

[bork]

Stating the obvious here, but Turnbow really can't pitch on back-to-back days, can't throw more then one inning and doesn't go well inherited runners.

I think we all see those shortcomings, but how many times would Yost insist on using him in those situations?

 

From Brewers.com:

His numbers with runners on base were particularly alarming. Opponents hit .241 off Turnbow with men on base, and .345 with runners in scoring position. That has to change if Turnbow is to be an effective closer.

"I think that was an anomaly,"Yost said. "If he ends up winning the closer's job, there are going to be times he is asked to come in in the eighth inning with two outs. That can't be a limitation on him."

[Fatter than Joey]

I do find it somewhat amusing that many on this board will write essays on why closers are extremely overrated and will then rant about our lack of a proven closer and how it's going to cost us our season.

 

I don't think this is the case. I think there are those that think that "closers are overrated" -- and I think there are those that want to see a trade for a Nathan/Cordero/Street -- I think the two camps are independent..

 

All I know is that it can't be Turnbow.

[Patrick425]

I will bet that Riske ends up costing us closer to $20M than $13M

Well, if he ends up costing the Brewers $20M, then that would mean he's a closer. That's pretty reasonable for a closer.

 

I am not so concerned about Fielder's extension at this point -- when we really don't have a clue if we will be given the opportunity to extend him or will want to extend him.

Well, I'll go "out on a limb" and guess that at some point they are going to want to extend his contract. Why wouldn't they be given the opportunity? I'm not talking about doing it the year before he becomes a free agent.

[Tbadder]

I think Yost and Melvin have got it exactly right. Sports are too volatile to cry over spilt milk. So it didn't work out. Sometimes the best way to improve is the players you don't sign or don't trade for. Closers are made, not born. They're high risk, and only a very few are consistent. And besides a team like the Brewers, who are not really in a position to contend just yet, probably won't need a lock down closer for a year or two, when they make their real push for the pennant.

[jlau20]

Maybe Simmons can knock some sense into Ned and use Turnbow in situations where he's more likely to succeed, for example, starting the 9th inning instead of coming in with guys on 1st and 2nd. I'm not really nervous about Turnbow going back to being the closer, I just hope that when he's out there for the first time at home and gives up one hit that the crowd doesn't go nuts booing him. It's clear he's a guy who is affected by that sort of reaction from the crowd. Sure, when he was bad last year, he was really bad, but it was here or there. He never really had a stretch of several outings in a row where he was terrible, it would be 3 runs one time, then 0 the next five times out. If Ned uses him wisely, I don't see any reason he can't put up the same save conversion % that Cordero did last year.

[Fatter than Joey]

And besides a team like the Brewers, who are not really in a position to contend just yet, probably won't need a lock down closer for a year or two, when they make their real push for the pennant.

 

Wow -- If DM and NY think we are 1 to 2 years away from contending -- then I entirely agree on your assessment -- however that being so stated I think DM should be fired if we are in fact 1-2 years away.

[TooLiveBrew]

"I think that was an anomaly,"Yost said. "If he ends up winning the closer's job, there are going to be times he is asked to come in in the eighth inning with two outs. That can't be a limitation on him."

AARGGHHH! Pre-determined roles, HUZZAH! Let there be no need for managers to think on the fly...

 

Yes, it absolutely can and should (!) be a limitation on him. Unless you don't want to be the manager for very long in 2008. When you're pre-setting what will and won't happen strategy-wise in DECEMBER, you can't do any more to cement the notion that you are locked into pre-determined roles & rules, Ned.

 

Each situation in a ballgame is unique, and has to be addressed as such. Like the infamous non-PH for Mench at Wrigley. I think I just have to stop myself there. But this is making me crazy! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif

[sweepscc]

2007 was the "one year away" year in my book. DM may just have to get bold and use his imagination but we have the resources to make our club better than last year. (without betting the farm)

[Invader3K]

It's been past "We're a year away" for almost two years with the Brewers. Time to go for it.

[monty57]

I think Yost and Melvin have got it exactly right. Sports are too volatile to cry over spilt milk. So it didn't work out. Sometimes the best way to improve is the players you don't sign or don't trade for. Closers are made, not born. They're high risk, and only a very few are consistent. And besides a team like the Brewers, who are not really in a position to content just yet, probably won't need a lock down closer for a year or two, when they make their real push for the pennant.

I agree with the first part. We can't go back and make a different offer to Cordero, undo the Linebrink trade, etc., as that's now in the past. As far as closers are made, not born, I feel that some players (quite possibly including Turnbow) do not have the mental makeup to succeed for an extended period as a closer. This is an arguement that some in the national press have made against Riske, and probably the biggest reason he's a Brewer. It didn't sound like any other team was going to give him any kind of a shot at closing.

 

Regarding not being in position to contend, I'd say the Brewers are deifinitely amongst the best teams in the National League. They may not stack up well against the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, or some other AL teams, but they definitely have a shot at the World Series in the depleted National League. The NL Central is probably the worst division in baseball. In two years, that may change, so we definitely need to make every effort to win now. The real hard part for Melvin is fielding the best team now, while still being cognizant of the future. The Tigers may be able to get away with trading their prospects away, as they'll be able to throw big money at free agents in a couple of years. The Brewers can't give away the future to win now.

[jlau20]

2007 was the "one year away" year in my book.

I think so too. In '05 I started running my mouth to my friends about how I thought '08 would be the year. Luckily these guys are making me looking pretty smart so far, even though it was more of a guess at the time than anything else. Based on how possible is what that they could have won the division if a few things went right in any of those games they choked up, I really think next year needs to be a playoff year, anything else would be a disappointment, to me atleast.

 

[Brian the Automator]

2007 was the "one year away" year in my book. DM may just have to get bold and use his imagination but we have the resources to make our club better than last year. (without betting the farm)

I put it to you, swepscc. Isn't this an indictment of our entire American society?

[sweepscc]

Take it easy. I'm in pre-law man.....and I'm not going to sit here and listen to you bad mouth the United States of America.

[Thurston Fluff]

Turnbow eventually admitted the booing was getting to him. So, won't it crush him if the fans turn on him again?

 

"Yes, I'm sure it will," Yost said. "He is (a lightning rod). I don't know what to tell him. 'Just go out and do your job. I'm not worried about it, so don't you worry about it.' "

 

This probably gives a little better context to the original quote. To me it looks as though Ned knows it will come and Turnbow's problems with it but also recognizes there are no real alterantives or nothing that really can be said. I think the actual quote in the original post is a little miss leading in that it was almost a throw away line. It's not like Ned is saying he isn't worries about the situation as much as he's saying at this point this is all I can think of to tell him.

 

After reading how LaRussa threw Rolen under the bus then drove the bus over him a couple times I'm glad we have someone who stands by his players even in not so perfect situations. Would it have made the situation better if Ned came out and said if he does let it effect him he'll be shipped out or demoted to mopup?

[Tbadder]

I'm not quite sure Brewer fans are thinking when they boo Turnbow. I don't think anyone, himself included, is happy with his progress. But having said that, Derrick has to be given a chance again. He needs all the support he can get. I do believe that positive vibrations can help, albeit not the be all and end all, but a player's state of mind is very important. I know all the counter arguments about toughness, and it's my right, etc. I just think in this case it's better to try to be a part of the solution.

 

As far as their ability to contend. I just don't see it. Their small ball, their defense, their pitching is so suspect. But as my ex-wife pointed out, "Dan, you're wrong 99% of the time!"

[Tbadder]

Oh yeah, and another thing (sorry for the back to back replies) Melvin is not managing in a vacuum. He manages under some of the tightest restraints in all of baseball. Everything has to be checked and double checked, every move creates an economic domino effect that just doesn't exist in large markets. If Melvin was in Cashman's place I think he'd put them over the top. Risk is always multiplied. Think about what's happening in KC right now. The mistakes they're making are so bad that they could be headed toward a disaster of biblical proportions. If they don't stop signing ridiculous players for huge salaries I could see the team possibly folding. My motto right now is, look at the American housing market. If GMs don't start acting responsibly, baseball could be in trouble. Now this is obviously supposition on my part, but I don't think it's far fecthed.

[Thurston Fluff]

Tbad that was two posts in a row where we agree with most of what you've said. I hope that doesn't cause you to change your mind.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif

There is nothing to gain by booing someone who has not been the most thick skinned person in the past. I still think anyone who prevents the opposition from scoring 85% of the time will be adequate closing games regardless of what happens the other 15% of the time. The only concern I have with him is if he lets the pressure/fan reaction get to him and fails to harness his already limited control effectively enough to continue shutting the door at that pace.

[cwolf2012]

Closers, in general, are highly overpaid. I'd take two good relief pitchers for a total of 6 mil a year over one great one for 12 mil. Closers are up and down because they're generally very simple pitchers. Fastball/Curveball or fastball/slider. Eventually people figure them out. You may as well conserve money while you can, and get as many innings as possible. Turnbow is unhittable 85% of the time (usually off a day or more rest) and absolutely awful 15% of the time. It's Yost's job to see the 15% coming when it starts and put in the truly best relief pitcher (who was Brian Shouse last year). This relief pitcher should come in when it's 2 on, 1 out with a small lead in the 7th, not in the bottom of the ninth with no one on and no outs. Almost any major league pitcher can get 3 outs in that situation without giving up runs.

 

Save your money for hitting.

 

"Their small ball, their defense, their pitching is so suspect."

 

Only one of those is important.

[Thurston Fluff]

It's Yost's job to see the 15% coming when it starts and put in the truly best relief pitcher

 

Whose job is it to find Ned a serviceable crystal ball?

[fondybrewfan]

It's Yost's job to see the 15% coming when it starts and put in the truly best relief pitcher

 

Whose job is it to find Ned a serviceable crystal ball?

Miss Cleo

[TooLiveBrew]

It's Yost's job to see the 15% coming when it starts and put in the truly best relief pitcher

 

Whose job is it to find Ned a serviceable crystal ball?

He doesn't need a crystal ball, just to take a look at a usage chart of TBow. It's really not that hard.

[LUKE232323]

Agreed with those that say the leash on Bow should be short. It's just how the guy is.

 

If he walks the first guy, pull him, it's just that simple. If I'm managing I have no exceptions to this rule, barring having no other pitchers to use in his place.

 

You can tell if Bow is going to be feast or famine by his first batter. He was probably our most predictable reliever last year.

[fondybrewfan]

But that basically means you need a guy warming up every single time Turnbow comes into a game. That is entirely unrealistic in my opinion and would be a strain on the other guys in the bullpen. If he walks one guy with two outs give him a chance to get the next guy, if he doesnt take your jolly sweet time getting out there allowing someone to get warm. If he comes out and walks the very first guy he faces I would do the exact same thing. But you cannot always be prepared for a Turnbow implosion, I tihnk it would have a terrible side effect on the rest of the bullpen

[sweepscc]

Lets take a small leap and assume T-bow does in fact melt down come June what would your next step be? It seems at that point our hand will be forced and we could get robbed going after a replacement. Or would you rather throw one of our stand by's in and hope they stick (which I'll say right now they won't over 100 games)?

[fondybrewfan]

Lets take a small leap and assume T-bow does in fact melt down come June what would your next step be? It seems at that point our hand will be forced and we could get robbed going after a replacement. Or would you rather throw one of our stand by's in and hope they stick (which I'll say right now they won't over 100 games)?

If Turnbow bombs, option B should be Dave Bush IMO, 3rd option being David Riske, 4th option being Manny Parra (If he is not in the rotation)