MIL signs David Riske (3yr/13M, plus incentives and team option for year 4), Laynce Nix'd

[Brian the Automator]

I've updated the subject line to be more appropriate

[bthurley19]

Nice, real nice.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Great move by Melvin.

 

I now expect Wise to be non-tendered. The bullpen looks like Turnbow, Riske, Shouse, Mota and some combination of McClung, Bush, Aquino, and Vargas (& maybe a Stetter/Choate). I don't see Wise being better than that group and he is arbitration eligible.

[NYChez]

Great move by Melvin.

 

I now expect Wise to be non-tendered. The bullpen looks like Turnbow, Riske, Shouse, Mota and some combination of McClung, Bush, Aquino, and Vargas (& maybe a Stetter/Choate). I don't see Wise being better than that group and he is arbitration eligible.

You could probably add Parra to that list, unless Capuano is traded. Wise was above average until the Cincinnati incident. I'd bring him back for the right price.

 

[dvoiss]

Good move. I hope he can step up and become a closer because looking at our current bullpen there aren't a whole lot of other options. Tbow scares the crap out of me.

[mikerollins]

Tbow scares the crap out of me

Why? He was 2nd in the entire league in scoreless innings by a relief pitcher. Isn't that what you want out of your closer? Scoreless innings?

[MoneyballMan]

I predict that someone is going to give Nix a chance and he's still going to be a solid OF. I understand the injury stuff, but I really believe if someone gives him playing time he'll be good for a few years.

[Weirdos19]

Tbow scares the crap out of me

Why? He was 2nd in the entire league in scoreless innings by a relief pitcher. Isn't that what you want out of your closer? Scoreless innings?

Yeah, I agree. But the four run innings really hurt. He had to be close to leading the league in multiple earned run innings too.

[Ennder]

Tbow scares the crap out of me

Why? He was 2nd in the entire league in scoreless innings by a relief pitcher. Isn't that what you want out of your closer? Scoreless innings?

 

Anyone who walks 6 per 9 IP is going to scare the crap out of me.

[parkside21]

Why? He was 2nd in the entire league in scoreless innings by a relief pitcher. Isn't that what you want out of your closer? Scoreless innings?

 

 

I hadn't heard that stat before. Thanks for sharing. If it is indeed true (I have no reason to doubt you) it reminds me that sometimes the forest just looks funny from the tree stand. That said, T-bow's inconsistent control and Ned's seemingly inability to manage him correctly still worries me. Though, none of that really has much to do with this thread. In regards to Riske, as others have said, I really like this signing as it doesn't seem to carry a whole lot of "riske" (how soon till that gets old?), and it has the potential for some pretty solid upside. Well done, Doug.

[Bernman23]

I heard him on WSSP earlier with Cliff and Gary, and he sounded like he'll be a good presence in the locker room at minimum. Although that's not quite as important to performance in baseball than other sports.

 

3 for 13 million seems a little bit steep for a middle reliever whose best two full seasons came with teams that had the least at stake ('07 Royals, '03 Indians). Although, he performed well in his one postseason appearance (albeit small sample), other seasons appear pretty solid, and those numbers should improve when he transfers to the national league for the first time. Don't like the save numbers I've read (20 of 38).

 

There is still a huge void at closer, #1 pressure guy, or whatever you want to call it. I thought Percival would have been a better fit than Riske because he's proven in big situations and he's a bulldog. Doug should have given him the deal he got with the Devil Rays. I approve of the offseason so far though.

[Brian the Automator]

3 for 13 million seems a little bit steep for a middle reliever whose best two full seasons came with teams that had the least at stake ('07 Royals, '03 Indians). Although, he performed well in his one postseason appearance (albeit small sample), other seasons appear pretty solid, and those numbers should improve when he transfers to the national league for the first time. Don't like the save numbers I've read (20 of 38).

You know, I used to say the same thing all the time, until I realized that EVERY free agent was getting crazy money. I'm not wild about this deal, but at least it's sheddable, should worse come to worse.

[TooLiveBrew]

Compared to what Linebrink got, this is an unfair steal. Especially when you examine production of the two players in question. The Crew got the better pitcher for less money & fewer years. A+ to Doug & Co.

 

EDIT: Oh, and we got the compensation pick, too.

[TerraceReserved]

Hoorah for the Riske signing. I second TLB's praise to the Moustache.

 

My one thing of concern is his LOB%. It's pretty much a given he won't sustain it at 90%, but surprisingly his career average is 80%. Also of note was his 4.41 FIP last year and 4.57 xFIP. I'd exepct an ERA of more around 3.5 to 4 this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

GREAT avatar. I think you're correct in forecasting an ERA around or north of 3.50. However, that odd variable that somehow appears to be a skill for Riske - stranding runners - throws things out of whack. I wonder if this apparent skill has helped to offset some of his relatively unimpressive xFIPs/FIPs. Perhaps the combo of low WHIP + strangely good & consistent strand rate makes up for what have been pedestrian-ish xFIP/FIPs.

[Bernman23]

3 for 13 million seems a little bit steep for a middle reliever whose best two full seasons came with teams that had the least at stake ('07 Royals, '03 Indians). Although, he performed well in his one postseason appearance (albeit small sample), other seasons appear pretty solid, and those numbers should improve when he transfers to the national league for the first time. Don't like the save numbers I've read (20 of 38).

You know, I used to say the same thing all the time, until I realized that EVERY free agent was getting crazy money. I'm not wild about this deal, but at least it's sheddable, should worse come to worse.

That's true. If a player is above replacement level, no matter what the salary, there's a good shot the: Yankees, Mets, or Red Sox; will take them off your hands, if needed.

 

I'm just concerned about allocating money in a prudent fashion this offseason. We are still the small market Brewers with an invisible cap. Linebrink's signing may seem a little absurd to us, but make sense for them. They have more money to distribute and he does have a better career ERA than Riske (projects similarly when factoring in the NL though). We shouldn't be trying to pay the going rate everywhere. If Doug the Nugget Hunter was going to make an appearance this offseason, middle relief wouldn't have been a bad place.

 

I'm not really that perturbed by any means. I want to make that much evident. Just thought there were better options for our specific situation.

 

 

[TheCouga23]

I don't understand people who think Linebrink is better than Riske. If anything, it is a wash. Linbrink had a higher peak, but Riske had a better year last year. Riske hasn't had an ERA north of 3.89 since 2002 and has always been an above average relief pitcher. We got him for less money and one less year. Linebrink also matured very late in his career, and had an off year last year. To me, that is a sign that a player may not just have had an off year, but be starting to decline. Riske might not have a year like last for the Brewers, but I feel pretty confident that he will be in the low to mid 3 area as far as ERA goes.

[TooLiveBrew]

Riske > Linebrink

 

Riske for less money & fewer years + compensation pick >>>>>> Linebrink

[mrwisconsin]

jsonline is reporting that Lance Nix isn't gone yet.The brewers and Nix have worked out a new contract na sent him outright to the minors if he clears he ill be with us at spring reaining.

[Team Canada]

Riske > Linebrink

 

Riske for less money & fewer years + compensation pick >>>>>> Linebrink

 

More correctly, Riske for *potentially* less money & fewer years. It's possible that we end up paying him 3/$20, which would be substantially more than Linebrink gets.

 

[Never Outhustled]

Lets not shortchange Linebrink. He got us compensations picks, as in 2. Its cool that he was a type A FA while Riske was type B. I guess Linebrink was better, but I think Riske will be better going forward. As I've been saying for years, if you think FAs are getting alot of money now, wait until you see what they go for next year. I don't see atttendance or TV ratings going down anytime soon, which means teams will continue to have money to burn.

[And That]

Riske > Linebrink

 

Riske for less money & fewer years + compensation pick >>>>>> Linebrink

I think what you mean is,

Riske for less money per year maybe + compensation picks for Linebrink + compensation picks for Riske in 4 years >>>>>> Linebrink. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

 

 

[Fatter than Joey]

I predict that someone is going to give Nix a chance and he's still going to be a solid OF.

 

He strikes out way too much.

 

Riske for less money & fewer years + compensation pick >>>>>> Linebrink

 

I'd rather have Thatcher and Inman, and not have the crappy innings Linebrink gave us last year.

 

I'm glad we didn't resign Linebrink, I'm OK with Riske. We still need more horses in the stable.

[RockCoCougars]

Too much money for a guy off a career year. I would have rather waited and picked up a few guys who fall through the cracks in a month or so.

[gregmag]

I agree with everything FTJ just said, except that the problem with Nix isn't his strikeouts; it's that he can't get on base to save his life.

 

Ordinarily I love hashing out the subtle pros and cons of players and figuring out the various reasons to like them or not. But with Laynce Nix, I can't see one inch past the following three numbers:

 

2008 Age: 27 (or, old enough that what you see is what you get)

 

Career MLB PA: 917 (or, nice big sample)

 

Career MLB OBP: .273.

 

Two. Seventy. Three. That isn't just bad -- it's, in the immortal words of Dan Ayckroyd, irredeemably bad. His career best, for those who might hope to catch him on an upswing, was .293 in 2004. I don't care if he has power; I don't care if he fields brilliantly. A .273 OBP nonpitcher cannot help a major league team.

 

I like the Riske signing quite a bit. Given the market and the team's needs, we got a good deal. The only way the incentives max out is if he closes, and the only way he closes is if he's good enough to close; those dollars would be fair at worst for that role.

 

Greg.