3B options, Latest: Ensberg discussion

[paulmolitor4]

Please no Lopez. I can only handle so many strikeout guys on one team.

[TooLiveBrew]

Lopez looks like a nice 'cheap option'. I don't mean that in a bad way. Sure he K's a lot, but he also draws BBs well. That's what we need more of imho, not 'guys that don't K.' Sometimes you have to accept the Ks as a part of many players that carry good BB rates.

[Oldcity]

Yep. As long as he draws walks we should care whether he's grounding out or striking out.

[paulmolitor4]

So maybe we should just pick up Russell "The Muscle" Branyan to play third. He had a higher OBP than Lopez last year (.320 vs. .308). Their career OBP's are virtually the same (Branyan .327 vs. Lopez .328). Branyan has a better career fielding pct. at 3B than Lopez (.945 vs. .941). Also I respectfully disagree with the notion that strikeouts don't matter. They matter. If you strikeout you can't score a runner from third or move runners over with less than two outs. The more you put the ball in play, the more good things can happen (outside of a douple play). Why do think Carlos Lee drives in so many runs? He puts the ball in play. Why do think Adam Dunn barely doubles his HR total in RBI? He strikes out alot.

 

[dpapo]

It appears as though Ensberg will indeed by non-tendered by the Padres:

The Padres will non-tender backup corner infielder Morgan Ensberg, whose return is unlikely.

 

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20071212-9999-1s12padres.html

[theavrock]

Morgan Ensberg's #1 player comparison according to Baseball Reference??? Joe Crede. If we can't get the Rolen deal done, I am warming to the idea of either one of the manning 3B next year. Although I would actually gravitate towards Ensberg. Even with an awful BA he put up good OB and OPS last year and he is a plus fielder.

[JohnBriggs12]

"he is a plus fielder"

 

So is Crede.

 

I'd stay far away from Ensberg. He's been awful two years in a row without an injury excuse.

[brewerfan82]

Last two years:

 

Ensberg: .233/.366/.438/.804 35 HRs, 139 BBs, 163 Ks, 669 ABs

Crede: .267/.308/.461/.769 34 HRs, 38 BBs, 82 Ks, 711 ABs

 

Even if you take out Crede's 2007 year and go 2005-2006, you get:

.269/.314/.483/.796 52 HRs, 53 BBs, 124 Ks, 976 ABs

 

For a team looking for OBP, .366 over the past two years is much, much, much better than the .308 Crede's put up. Add in the fact that Crede's career OBP is even lower (.305) and Ensberg's career OBP is exactly the same (.366), and I'd take Ensberg 1000 times out of a 1000 over Crede. I really want to see him walk a hundred times in front of Braun and Prince.

 

Of course, maybe my mind will change tomorrow after the Mitchell Report comes out...

[TooLiveBrew]

Also I respectfully disagree with the notion that strikeouts don't matter. They matter.

Where did I say K's "don't matter"? I didn't - I said you have to accept them sometimes in order to get a higher OBP player. Guys with BB/K rates like Pujols & Helton don't grow on trees.

 

I'd stay far away from Ensberg. He's been awful two years in a row without an injury excuse.

I though he had some serious shoulder problems, JB.

[Robideaux]

Paulmolitor4,

Which group do you take? The one with Jack Wilson and Juan Pierre or the one with Ryan Howard and B.J. Upton?

 

Top 10 lowest strikeout totals 2007 (at least 500 PA)

Yuniesky Betancourt

Jack Wilson

Luis Castillo

Casey Kotchman

Jason Kendall

Dustin Pedroia

Mark Loretta

Kenji Johjima

Juan Pierre

Placido Polanco

 

 

Top 10 highest total strikeouts 2007

Ryan Howard

Dan Uggla

Adam Dunn

Jack Cust

Mike Cameron

Grady Sizemore

B.J. Upton

Brandon Inge

Jhonny Peralta

Carlos Pena

[TooLiveBrew]

It's why a guy like Carlos Lee is so highly valued. The list of guys who (semi)routinely post < 100 K & > 60 BB would likely be very, very short.

 

EDIT: Fair enough, end. I just sorta picked the 60 number out of thin air, but it's interesting to know that El Caballo wouldn't even make that quota.

[endaround]

Well Lee really isn't in that list either. He only had greater than 60 walks once in 2002. Lee's OBP is actually rather poor for a guy who hits for his average.

[bretsky07]

I'd stay far away from Ensberg. He's been awful two years in a row without an injury excuse.

To be fair, his 2006 was actually pretty good, other than AVG. .235 / .396 / .463 / .859 with 101 BB in only 387 ABs.

[Big Reed]

I prefer a guy who puts the ball into play verses a guy who just stands there and takes a walk. i understand that certain positions of the batting order dictate a batter do certain things. You usually want your lead-off hitter to get on base, and your #2 hitter to be a good bunter and als o patient hitter to help advance the runner. the third batter is a jack of all trades. he basically can hit for power or drive the ball into the outfield. the 4th hitter is supposed to hit the ball out of the park. the 5th hitter is supposed to also have power in case the 4th hitter whiffs or gets intentionally walked. The 6th - through 8th hitter are not as important - just hit the ball. With tha t said, I do not reall y want my #4 hitter t o accumulate a ton of walks. i want him to power hit the ball. i realize that many great hitters get walked a lot. but i don't want fielder going up to the plate looking for a walk. i want him to swing away.

 

With that said, i look at Ensberg and I look at Crede. Ensburg walks a lot and Crede doesn't. because of his walk totals, Ensberg's OBP is a lot higher. But is that really a good thing? Looking at Crede's situational stats, the majority of his atbats the last 4 years have been batting in the 7th and 8th spot. What is a guy who bats in the 7th spot supposed to do? take a walk? or swing away? he basically did what his coaches instructed him to do. In stark contrast, the majority of Ensberg's at bats before 2007 were at the #4 spot. What's more important for a #4 hitter? to get a ton of walks and have a great OBP? or to swing away and drive in the guys on base? Obviously, in 2005 and 2006, opposing pitchers thought it was smarter to just walk Ensberg and face the Astros' #5 hitter. I think a lot of Ensberg's walks were more directly related to him batting 4th with no great batter batting 5th than Ensberg being a great OBP hitter. I remember when Prince was in the minors and his coaches told him to stop taking so many walks and become more agressive at the plate and swing for the fences more. It appears to me that Ensberg became content to be walked rather than to be more agressive at the plate. I noticed that in 2007 Ensberg had 0 atbats hitting 4th in the lineup after he had his majority of atbats hitting 4th in 2005 and 2006. hitting lower in the order without any protection could have led to his dismal 2007.

 

I started out liking Crede a lot more than ensberg earlier this month. but in looking at both players more in depth, I' m begining to not like either player. But I will argue that you need to look at more stats than just average and OBP to determine how good or bad a player was. You need to also look at the person's situational stats, and you need to look at more than one year's worth of stats.

 

Could either player bounce back to their earlier form? Sure they could. but are the brewers in a position where they are willing to allow Ensberg 60+ starts at third to see if he can regain the touch? crede had his best year in 2006 before being injured. However, he started off 2007 real slow and then became injured once more. Was his 2007 affected by a lingering injury from 2006? or was 2006 his career year?

 

Rolen is looking a lot better. Hiring Brooks Robinson as a special tutor for Braun doesn't sound so bad either.

[TooLiveBrew]

You usually want your lead-off hitter to get on base, and your #2 hitter to be a good bunter and als o patient hitter to help advance the runner. the third batter is a jack of all trades. he basically can hit for power or drive the ball into the outfield. the 4th hitter is supposed to hit the ball out of the park. the 5th hitter is supposed to also have power in case the 4th hitter whiffs or gets intentionally walked. The 6th - through 8th hitter are not as important - just hit the ball. With tha t said, I do not reall y want my #4 hitter t o accumulate a ton of walks. i want him to power hit the ball.

 

I like to think you look for the best combo of all these important aspects of hitting you've outlined, regardless of BA - sure, you want certain things from certain situations, but to say, 'He must be able to bunt well' might eliminate a really good option to bat #2. I also feel BBs are a large part of that. Plus, guys that power hit the ball also tend to draw more BBs than those who simply hope for contact. If you look back beyond recent memory, and when the lineup slot labels were sort of coined, I think you find that the good players then did the same things well as the current crop of good players.

 

he basically did what his coaches instructed him to do.

 

I will resist the temptation for the obligatory Guillen & Williams joke.

 

Could either player bounce back to their earlier form? Sure they could. but are the brewers in a position where they are willing to allow Ensberg 60+ starts at third to see if he can regain the touch?

 

This is a really prudent question. I am of the belief we can't risk seeing if Braun can work it out at 3B, so it'd be really hypocritical for me to say we should give guys who are equally unproven, albeit in different aspect, the chance to try out on the job.

[danzig6767]

Big Reed wrote:

Obviously, in 2005 and 2006, opposing pitchers thought it was smarter to just walk Ensberg and face the Astros' #5 hitter. I think a lot of Ensberg's walks were more directly related to him batting 4th with no great batter batting 5th than Ensberg being a great OBP hitter.

Ensberg walked a lot because he's a patient hitter as he's always been, it's how he approaches at bats. Crede doesn't walk a lot because he's not patient and prefers to swing even when it's a pitch outside the strike zone.

 

Look at Jason Kendall, the guy has had fly swatter power most of his career, but he's always drawn walks while Estrada has more pop but never walks. It's a mentality some players have and others don't.

[Team Canada]

I'd stay far away from Ensberg. He's been awful two years in a row without an injury excuse.

 

Anyone who can carry a .360 OBP while hitting .230 ain't awful in my book. You might even say it's "good".

 

[ILuvDaBush]

What's his BABIP if his BA is .230? I would find it very hard to imagine a guy who could put up MVP-type numbers could "luckily" hit .230. Is there a chance for progression back to the mean on BABIP? I like the idea of going after Ensberg, even if it probably won't sit well with Braunski getting moved off the hot corner for an average defender. Then again, it doesn't sit well with me to watch him get two errors on the same play.

[Milltownhooker]

Ensberg would be a nice signing if the Crew could trade for LaRoche & Ethier.

[billyhallfan]

when you talk about Lee scoring runs a lot, look at how many double plays he grounds into too...

 

it might surprise you...

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd stay far away from Ensberg. He's been awful two years in a row without an injury excuse.

 

Anyone who can carry a .360 OBP while hitting .230 ain't awful in my book. You might even say it's "good".

 

 

Well in 2007, his OBP was .320 not .360.

 

Neither of the teams that employed him in the last 2 seasons thought he was "good". They see him on an everyday basis. The 06 Astros as I recall had trouble scoring runs. Ensberg's inability to drive them in from the cleanup spot had a lot to do with that. Berkman that year was on base a lot ahead of him and Ensberg seemed content to walk instead of driving in runs. No doubt he's got a very good eye at the plate, but he's not been much of a run producer.

[gregmag]

The 06 Astros as I recall had trouble scoring runs. Ensberg's inability to drive them in from the cleanup spot had a lot to do with that. Berkman that year was on base a lot ahead of him and Ensberg seemed content to walk instead of driving in runs. No doubt he's got a very good eye at the plate, but he's not been much of a run producer.

Why do we so often blame the player when his team uses him in a role for which he isn't well suited? Fortunately, we don't need Ensberg to hit cleanup. We have like four guys for that. We need guys to get on base, and Ensberg's .366 career OBP is ideally suited for the 2-hole. (His .211 career ISO actually looks like pretty good run production to me, but his walks seem to be holding on a lot better than his power).

The real question about Ensberg isn't "how good a cleanup hitter is he," any more than the question in signing Gagne was whether he could rack up a great won-lost record. The real question is whether, as somebody suggested above, Ensberg's struggles last year reflect a Cirillo-like crash. I emphasize "last year"; the argument that he sucked in 2006, when he did everything well at the plate except hit for average, can't be taken seriously. But at 31, with old player skills, he definitely could be tanking suddenly, and I'd want to know what scouts saw last year.

 

Beyond that question, the problem with Ensberg is that, at 31, he's only topped 500 PA in one big league season. I don't know how much of that is injuries and how much is platooning, but either way he's not a guy that you can just pencil in as a regular and then go worry about other things.

Greg.

 

 

 

[Team Canada]

Well in 2007, his OBP was .320 not .360.

 

Well, since you said "over the last 2 years he's been horrible" I was simply referencing the 2 year stats that brewerfan82 supplied above.

 

[twobrewers]

Ensberg's BABIP was .261 in 2007. So he certainly has room to improve his average.

 

Bill James has his projected OBP at .361 and his OPS at .817

 

My opinion...

Offense

Ensberg = Gross (pretty similar players. low average. high obp)

Defense

Ensberg > Braun

 

So if our other option is to start Braun at 3rd and platoon Gross in LF - I would much rather have Ensberg. If we can acquire someone else of Rolen's caliber - perfect. But Ensberg would be an acceptable way to move Braun to the OF.

[Oldcity]

The 06 Astros as I recall had trouble scoring runs. Ensberg's inability to drive them in from the cleanup spot had a lot to do with that. Berkman that year was on base a lot ahead of him and Ensberg seemed content to walk instead of driving in runs. No doubt he's got a very good eye at the plate, but he's not been much of a run producer.

Well that's funny, because I know you've been supporting acquiring Randy Winn and I don't think he's much of a run producer either. The lucky thing for the Brewers is they already have the run producers and they're lacking guys with patience and a good eye.