3B options, Latest: Ensberg discussion

[Patrick425]

I don't think it's possible to go through the season and point out games that errors cost the Brewer's wins. Some times it's just not that obvious.

 

Example #1: Braun makes an error in the 2nd that eventually leads to 3 runs scoring. The Brewers end up losing 7 to 2 and you say well, error or no error they only scored 2 runs so, it didn't make a difference. Not necessarily, games are managed differently in close games. They Brewers may have done something to try to "manufacture" a run or two if the error had not been made early in the game and the score had been closer.

 

Example #2: Braun makes an error in the 5th inning that doesn't cost a run. However, the opposing team now has an "extra" batter that they are sending to the plate. They win with a walk off two out HR in the bottom of the ninth from a guy that should have never been at bat had the error in the 5th not been made.

 

It's not always the obvious late inning errors that cause losses.

[hauser42]

I don't think it's possible to go through the season and point out games that errors cost the Brewer's wins. Some times it's just not that obvious.

 

Example #1: Braun makes an error in the 2nd that eventually leads to 3 runs scoring. The Brewers end up losing 7 to 2 and you say well, error or no error they only scored 2 runs so, it didn't make a difference. Not necessarily, games are managed differently in close games. They Brewers may have done something to try to "manufacture" a run or two if the error had not been made early in the game and the score had been closer.

 

Example #2: Braun makes an error in the 5th inning that doesn't cost a run. However, the opposing team now has an "extra" batter that they are sending to the plate. They win with a walk off two out HR in the bottom of the ninth from a guy that should have never been at bat had the error in the 5th not been made.

 

It's not always the obvious late inning errors that cause losses.

How about all the runs that Braun's bat created to keep the team in a game would any other player been able to do that? Lets get serious last off season poster cried about Graffy and Counsel platooning at 3B. Some will never be happy.

[Patrick425]

How about all the runs that Braun's bat created to keep the team in a game would any other player been able to do that?

I don't think anyone is suggesting to take Braun out of the lineup. I think the suggestion is to move him to less critical defensive position. It's not Braun's bat that being replaced, it's Menchkins.

[Fatter than Joey]

How about all the runs that Braun's bat created to keep the team in a game would any other player been able to do that?

 

No one is suggesting removing Braun from the lineup.

 

I know he was brutal, but something in me hates the notion of moving yet another player to the outfield.

 

Yeah -- Ideally this should have been done in the minors, I think as with Weeks, the Brewers gambled that they would be able to get some high OPS guys in their IF.

[hauser42]

How about all the runs that Braun's bat created to keep the team in a game would any other player been able to do that?

 

No one is suggesting removing Braun from the lineup.

 

I know he was brutal, but something in me hates the notion of moving yet another player to the outfield.

 

Yeah -- Ideally this should have been done in the minors, I think as with Weeks, the Brewers gambled that they would be able to get some high OPS guys in their IF.

Braun has only played two years at 3B, why is he not getting a chance to prove himself?? He may have had the worse season in history at 3B but I recall a lot of great plays he made so there is hope he can get the spot down. If things dont get better this year than you can move him.

[DuWayne Steurer]

How about all the runs that Braun's bat created to keep the team in a game would any other player been able to do that?

 

If, for example, Braun's bat created 50 extra runs from an "average" player, and his glove was worse by 30 runs than an average defensive 3B (which 30 might be an underestimate), he's negated 60% of his positive offensive value. To echo others, not one single person is suggesting taking Braun out of the lineup, quite the contrary, putting him in leftfield will make him much less of a defensive liability (in theory) and he won't be negating so much, if even any, of his positive offensive value.

 

The other thing to touch on is the "point out a specific game that his defense lost" comments. When you're giving up extra runs from a defensive position (I remember someone on here posting him at either -31 or -39, I can't remember which), it doesn't have to be "game specific". When you're allowing extra runs, you're going to lose more games. In theory, 31 to the negative probably cost the team 3 games.

[splitterpfj]

The third base position is actually flooded with options right now. Internally, the Brewers already have Bill Hall to consider, then you've got Tejada, Inge, LaRoche, Rolen, Teahen, Crede, Iguchi and Mora floating around.

 

The funny part about this is, the Dodgers want a 3B, and they have LaRoche, the Brewers want a 3B, and they have Hall, and the Cardinals want a 3B, while they have Rolen.

 

What does it say for a player's value when the team that currently employs him is openly looking to replace him? "Hi, this is LA calling, LaRoche is really going to be special, so we'd like a new third baseman."

 

Something doesn't add up.

[Ennder]

Quoted from this article which is pay...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6976

 

At third base, Ryan Braun's area of responsibility included 315 grounders, 158 of which were not turned into outs. We would have expected only 116 to have resulted in a runner, so Braun is debited for 43 baserunners. Since more balls not fielded by third baseman end up as extra-base hits, he is given 37 single-equivalents and six double-equivalents, which adds up to -33 runs. Sum the results, and Braun is debited 40 runs for his efforts in 2007, a whopping difference of 65 runs between himself and Tulowitzki

 

 

Braun was credited with 42 BRAA which means his bat created 44 more runs than an average 3B would have in the same time played. So 42-40=2. Braun gave the team 2 more runs than an average 3B overall in 2007 using one fielding metric. Another gave him a -27 FRAA which means he was worth 15 runs more than average. Considering how well he hit the fielding at 3B is completely killing his value.

 

Question of course is what his 2008 will look like since fielding metrics take a good 2 seasons data to be really useful.

[Tbadder]

Awesome! Trade the bum; he's dragging us down. Now, I want the stats on Fielder as well. Cause you gotta know he's probably only 6/7 runs over the average 1st baseman!

[trwi7]

Awesome! Trade the bum; he's dragging us down. Now, I want the stats on Fielder as well. Cause you gotta know he's probably only 6/7 runs over the average 1st baseman!

 

Where is anybody saying this? There are legitimate concerns that he could negate most of, if not all his offensive value if he continues to be a butcher at 3B. That is the reality of the situation, moving him to LF solves this. That's all people are saying.

[RobertR]

It probably should be noted, average is valuable. Heck, in this market, average is probably worth $7 million a year.

Robert

[TooLiveBrew]

Braun's defense, should he remain at 3B, will have a hard time being worse than - or even as bad as - 2007. The trouble there is that his offense will have a hard time being the same as 2007. The sooner he's in LF, the better. 2008 is a year in which the Brewers have a very legitimate shot - again - to hit the playoffs. There's simply no reason to stubbornly stick Braun back at 3B, and hope that the incredibly unlikely occurs.

[brewerfan82]

Anybody interested in Morgan Ensberg? Sounds like he might be non-tendered by the Padres. I'm not sure what happened to him last year, but he fits the bill as a guy who works the count and takes walks.

 

3B Morgan Ensberg - Age 32 (2005-07)

.255/.375/.490/.866

5.33 AB/BB

4.24 AB/K

4.10 P/PA

 

I think he's a step up from guys like Crede and Feliz offensively and he might cost less (money or player-wise). How's his defense?

[strawbossisevil]

Ensberg is an interesting option. A few years ago, he was in the running for MVP. Now, he's hardly a footnote. I wonder what happened to his offensive abilitiy.

[TooLiveBrew]

I mentioned Ensberg in some thread, not sure if it was this one or not... his D iirc is solid. But it's his shoulder issues & related lack of power that is a bigger concern.

 

Fwiw, Bill James's projection for him for '08: .250/.361/.456/.817. Not sure one way or the other about his SLG, but the rest looks reasonable. A quick peek at his RZR numbers shows that he's average or so defensively. I'd have to imagine he'd be worth at least a look.

[Big Reed]

I'd like to add another name that people are somewhat familier with. Andy Marte. he was another of the over hyped braves prospects who has done nothing for Cleveland in the last 2 years. it would appear that the indians like Casey Blake and his future as an Indian is playing third base. Since he's 33, he'll block Marte's path to starting for the next 2-3 years. Marte is only 24. he could pan out. With the trade of Kouzmanoff for barfield last year, it would appear the indians are not afraid to part with young prospects. On a down side, the indians don't appear to have very many third base prospects on the farm, so they might want to hold onto Marte for a couple more years as insurance.

[chinabob99]

I'd like to add another name that people are somewhat familier with. Andy Marte. he was another of the over hyped braves prospects who has done nothing for Cleveland in the last 2 years. it would appear that the indians like Casey Blake and his future as an Indian is playing third base. Since he's 33, he'll block Marte's path to starting for the next 2-3 years. Marte is only 24. he could pan out. With the trade of Kouzmanoff for barfield last year, it would appear the indians are not afraid to part with young prospects. On a down side, the indians don't appear to have very many third base prospects on the farm, so they might want to hold onto Marte for a couple more years as insurance.

Thats an interesting option. IIRC Marte been shipped through like 3 or 4 franchises in the last couple years. He went from the Braves to the Red Sox, then right from the Sox to the Indians as part of the Coco Crisp deal. For a supposed super-prospect, that kind of makes you think something might be up. Maybe we give him a shot just to see if it pans out?

[RU Rah Rah]

Ensberg might be worth a flier, especially if he can be had cheaply. But do you then commit full-bore to putting Braun in LF? Where are you if Ensberg fizzles? (Possible to have 3B-by-committee, I suppose.)

[recte44]

Ensberg is an interesting option. A few years ago, he was in the running for MVP. Now, he's hardly a footnote. I wonder what happened to his offensive abilitiy.

Steroids? HGH? Hmmm.

I had thought about him as an option, certainly if he's non-tendered it's another option on the market that would bring down Rolen's value a tad. (Yes, I'm still on that.)

[DuWayne Steurer]

It probably should be noted, average is valuable. Heck, in this market, average is probably worth $7 million a year.

 

Robert

 

No debating that, but when you have a guy capable of putting up a 1.000 OPS or so, you'd expect that players' overall contribution to be more than average. Moving him to LF would most likely go some ways towards achieving that goal.

 

[Brian the Automator]

I'd be down with Ensberg. He was solid in his stint with the Padres. He's been up and down, but I don't see why he couldn't bounce back to a .800 OPS year, with excellent D.

[hauser42]

Ensberg is not the answer at 3B, even though he is cheap. I would rather see the Brewers trade for someone or sign a better option.

[theavrock]

Ensberg plays very solid D and ... ding, ding, ding... gets on base at an above average clip. I would realistically expect him to put up a BA between .250 and .280 with an OPS of .750-.810. Not bad if he is indeed non-tendered and could be had for nothing.

[MoneyballMan]

Ensberg is not the answer at 3B, even though he is cheap. I would rather see the Brewers trade for someone or sign a better option.

I agree Ensberg may not be "the" answer, but he may be the best option available. Trading or signing someone better is easy to say and difficult to do.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I actually really like Ensberg. I'd much rather give him a chance than trade a valuable peice for someone like Crede or Feliz, or sign a scrub like Iguchi to an overpriced contract. Ensberg is a terrific defensive player, and has shown in the past that he can hit. I'm not sure what has happened to him recently, but if he can hit .270, slug 20 homers and have 80 RBIs, I'd be happy as a clam. Much better than the .290, 8, 60, with a ton of Ks, line that Iguchi would likely put up.

 

I'd even be willing to send the Padres Gwynn Jr. for Ensberg and a reliever. Heck, they owe us after fleecing us on the Linebrink deal.