Peavy extension in works; implications for Sheets?

[SoCalBrewfan]

So it looks as though Jake Peavy is hammering out an extension with the Padres that's on the order of 3 yrs / $50 - 54M. That is, of course, substantially less than the extension Zambrano signed (5/$91.5M). Peavy appears to have given a bit of a discount in order to stay in San Diego, as he's about as valuable a property as one can find, durable and effective...could easily get $20M on the open market I assume. From Peavy's point of view, he gets to be where he wants, has a lot of guaranteed money, but he's also young enough that he can expect that he might still hit the market after this deal should he so desire. OK, so what does that mean as far as what Sheets might expect? There have been a number of discussions about extending Sheets, with wildly different assumptions about what he might expect. He's neither as durable nor as effective as Peavy over the last few years, though it's closer than some might guess, and you could argue that Sheets at his best is every bit as good. Sheets is in a little different position than Peavy, in that he's already made a lot of money, so he might well be willing to gamble on a free agent payday over the certainty of an extension. He's three years older than Peavy, so he might well have only one chance to be a big-ticket free agent...and if he's determined to test the market of course it's unlikely that you'll prevent that. Anyway, just a thought while everyone waits out the winter meetings rumor mill...

[JJHardy7]

Actually that deal makes out evenly per year. I don't think it really impacts Sheets that much since they both average out about 18 million per year. I would be surprised if Peavy only takes a 3 year deal, but if Sheets gets 18 million per I really hope it's not Milwaukee that signs him to that. If anything, this lowers Sheets value quite a bit in my mind since like pointed out above he's 3 years older and has health concerns.

[Tbadder]

Wow

 

That's really interesting. I'm surprised he didn't get more--a lot more.

[JJHardy7]

From mlb.com...

 

"I know what I can get on the open market, but if I get to the open market, it won't be about the money," Peavy said last month. "This team has given me financial security for this Alabama boy's life. I'm very comfortable to be where I'm at."

 

He's under contract through 2009 already. So this would really be a definition of a discounted deal. If anything, it gives me hopes that Sheets would do a $12 million a year deal...the Brewers deserve a discount a lot more than the Padres do with Peavy, but I respect Peavy. It's good to hear things like that.

[Tbadder]

Geez, if I could get Ben for 12 mil a year, I'd sign him up for as long as possible, say 10 years! I really can't see Benny taking less than 15.

[TooLiveBrew]

From Peavy's point of view, he gets to be where he wants, has a lot of guaranteed money, but he's also young enough that he can expect that he might still hit the market after this deal should he so desire.

This was my initial thought. If the 3-yr. number sticks, that means he hits FA again as a 30-y-o. You will still likely see a ginormous deal then - at least 5 years, and even ginormouser money than is being thrown around now.

 

"This team has given me financial security for this Alabama boy's life. I'm very comfortable to be where I'm at."

 

I know there's the whole angle I just mentioned (in that he'll get SOOPA-PAAAAYID in 3-ish yrs.), but boy is that refreshing to hear.

[JJHardy7]

This was my initial thought. If the 3-yr. number sticks, that means he hits FA again as a 30-y-o. You will still likely see a ginormous deal then - at least 5 years, and even ginormouser money than is being thrown around now.

 

Why wouldn't you ask for more though now? This is about money in 2010, 2011, and 2012. I really don't think it's about the money -- if this is true. He will be way undervalue.

 

As far as Sheets for $15 million a year, what stats will he need for one to justify that? Again, he isn't doing anything to stay in shape...and that's from players who have played with him. Why pay him that much? I really have a feeling his trade value isn't that high. If Sheets is so great, why wouldn't the Red Sox and Yankees be going after him? He only has one year left on a small market team. He is the exact player big market teams trade for right now...if Sheets is on the team to start 2008 we'll know one of two things...

 

1. Sheets' value right now is small -- ie trade at deadline

2. The Brewers believe they can re-sign him after 2008...not before

[SoCalBrewfan]

Actually that deal makes out evenly per year.

 

What I meant is that it's a lot less guaranteed money, though the average annual value is nearly the same.

 

For better or worse, these are the deals that Sheets and teams are likely to use as benchmarks...though I think they're upper limits given the concerns about durability with Sheets. I'm surprised though, since the market for an average plus starting pitcher seems to be around $10-12M/year (see Suppan / Meche / etc). There's less room between that and Peavy than one might have guessed; maybe there's some hangover from the Zito deal (and Schmidt, etc., etc.) or something. Maybe crazier deals are yet to come, but I thought there was so much money floating around that we'd see silly dollars flying already.

 

It does make deals signed a couple of years ago seem like great bargains, though...Lowe, Escobar, Beckett, for example.

 

Further, it points to something that's been suggested before: it is pretty rare that top of the rotation starters are hitting free agency. Peavy was one of the names fans and writers were eyeing from the next off-season's FA class, saying, hey, Silva ain't much, but wait 'til next year when Sabathia, Sheets, Peavy, Santana hit free agency. I wouldn't be surprised if almost all of those guys were extended before they hit FA...those that do might well be regarded as damaged goods as suggested above, perhaps as Zito should have been. The fact that a guy like Peavy is unlikely to hit the market ought to make Santana (and Sheets) all the more valuable in trade.

[JJHardy7]

Further, it points to something that's been suggested before: it is pretty rare that top of the rotation starters are hitting free agency. Peavy was one of the names fans and writers were eyeing from the next off-season's FA class, saying, hey, Silva ain't much, but wait 'til next year when Sabathia, Sheets, Peavy, Santana hit free agency. I wouldn't be surprised if almost all of those guys were extended before they hit FA...those that do might well be regarded as damaged goods as suggested above, perhaps as Zito should have been. The fact that a guy like Peavy is unlikely to hit the market ought to make Santana (and Sheets) all the more valuable in trade.

 

Peavy wouldn't be a free agent though until 2009, right? He wouldn't be in next year's class. Sheets doesn't belong in the same sentence as Sabathia, Peavy, or Santana in my opinion. If he gets anywhere near those deals, let him sign it...just not in a Brewers uniform. I do believe we are putting too much value in Sheets. Sheets will be traded before 2008 if he's anywhere near the value of CC, Jake, or Johan right now. His value isn't that high.

[endaround]

This was my initial thought. If the 3-yr. number sticks, that means he hits FA again as a 30-y-o. You will still likely see a ginormous deal then - at least 5 years, and even ginormouser money than is being thrown around now.

 

Why wouldn't you ask for more though now? This is about money in 2010, 2011, and 2012. I really don't think it's about the money -- if this is true. He will be way undervalue.

 

As far as Sheets for $15 million a year, what stats will he need for one to justify that? Again, he isn't doing anything to stay in shape...and that's from players who have played with him. Why pay him that much? I really have a feeling his trade value isn't that high. If Sheets is so great, why wouldn't the Red Sox and Yankees be going after him? He only has one year left on a small market team. He is the exact player big market teams trade for right now...if Sheets is on the team to start 2008 we'll know one of two things...

 

1. Sheets' value right now is small -- ie trade at deadline

2. The Brewers believe they can re-sign him after 2008...not before

Those guys who played with him from Beloit again huh? Sheets at $15 million, terrible. Suppan at $12 million, great!

 

[1992casey]

end, when quoting, please try to excerpt the part of the message you're actually commenting on. Besides message 'prettiness', it makes it easier to figure out what prompted your post.

 

Quoting messages: please be brief

[JJHardy7]

Those guys who played with him from Beloit again huh? Sheets at $15 million, terrible. Suppan at $12 million, great!

I have already apologized for the confusion. Sheets did spend some time with Beloit -- not on the roster, but the player that mentioned this was his roommate and played with him in 1999 in Stockton. Take it for what's it worth, but I think just looking at Sheets I feel comfortable saying he's not in the world's best physical shape.

[rluzinski]

Sheets did spend some time with Beloit -- not on the roster, but the player that mentioned this was his roommate and played with him in 1999 in Stockton.

 

But you said:

 

"Again, he isn't doing anything to stay in shape...and that's from players who have played with him. "

 

You make it sound like you have inside information from multiple sources, confirming that Sheets doesn't stay in shape. In actuality, it was really just one guy from almost a decade ago. Talk about overstating your "insider information."

 

You think Sheets has a bad work ethic and many others agree with you. I'm not as comfortable assuming such a thing but it's certainly possible. Let's just not state it as fact, please.

[JJHardy7]

You make it sound like you have inside information from multiple sources, confirming that Sheets doesn't stay in shape. In actuality, it was really just one guy from almost a decade ago.

 

I see your point. They still do keep in contact with each other and from the guy it's been this way in his minor league days - in regards to internal questions regarding the shape Sheets has kept himself in. Take it for what it's worth.

 

I think the fact that he doesn't appear to be in great shape (baggy uniform is hard to see where he's at) and the injuries that keep occuring may possibly lead to a conclusion that he isn't keeping himself in shape. I'm not saying all baseball players are in great shape, but to give a huge contract to a player that may possibly not keep himself in shape is a risk in my opinion.

[Ennder]

Sheets statistically is right in line with guys like Sabathia and Peavy and well if you are talking about Sabathia and staying in shape you are making a mistake. Peavy has had a lot of minor injury problems as well, it is part of being a pitcher. If Sheets goes out and pitches a full season this year he'll get a contract very close to what those guys get for sure.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Peavy wouldn't be a free agent though until 2009, right? He wouldn't be in next year's class.

 

He could have been...as of now the club holds a no-brainer option for '09, but it sounds as though he'll be extended before that is an issue. In any event, the crop of FA pitchers next year is deeper than this year, though I think it's likely that most of the good ones don't make it to the open market. List of free agents next offseason can be found here:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2008-09-free-agents.html

 

Sheets doesn't belong in the same sentence as Sabathia, Peavy, or Santana in my opinion.

 

Santana is way ahead of the others at this point. But Sheets, Peavy, Sabathia aren't as far off from one another as you seem to think. Which of those three guys do you think has four straight years of ERA under 4? Career ERA+ (i.e., ERA but correcting for home park and league) for the three are 113, 119, 116, respectively. Career WHIP 1.21, 1.19, 1.26. (And Sheets' 1.21 is better than Peavy's 1.19 given their respective home parks and defenses.) When Sheets has pitched, he's been as good as the other two, and sometimes better.

 

But the fortunes of pitchers ebb and flow, and can turn on a dime. A year ago, Peavy was coming off a 11-14, 4.09 season. Now of course he's the defending Cy Young winner and as valuable a pitcher as there is. Sabathia's value is high now as well, but if you are going to talk about a baggy uniform and conditioning for Sheets, what do you say about CC? The guy's logged a lot of innings for his age...what's his future hold? Three years ago Sheets looked like the best of the bunch. Of course he's older and hasn't thrown 200 innings for a few years, but he's also seen a reduced workload on his arm that may actually extend his career. Or he could be done in six months, as could any pitcher.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I really hope we extend Sheets. I just dont understand why most people want him gone. If we do trade him that will leave a huge hole in the rotation, one that cant be filled with a guy like Claudio Vargas. I really dont want to have to rely on Gallardo, Villy, and Parra to lead this team. They are all way too young to lead the rotation without Sheets.

[JJHardy7]

When Sheets has pitched, he's been as good as the other two, and sometimes better.

 

That is my main concern. I just don't believe he will stay healthy. I'm not saying he's a bad pitcher when he's pitching well...he's pretty darn good. I just can't picture Sheets staying healthy for a year. I remember beginning of last season one radio station was taking bets on when Sheets would make his first trip to the DL...that's not what I really want to pay a ton of money for.

 

I think the Brewers have struggled when he's on the DL, but part of that is the fallout of Sheets. They've counted on him and he hasn't been there due to injuries. I think the Brewers should pencil Sheets in as their #5 or #6 starter (at least that kind of mentality). If he's healthy, great. If he gets hurt again, it's not going to be this big shock or hoping he comes back soon.

[Ennder]

Well that is really what it comes down to, Sheets health.

 

I'm not really worried about the inner ear thing anymore.

 

He was a horse until 2004 when we probably abused him some since he pitched so well. He got hurt late in 2005 for the first time and didn't come back until mid 2006. His first real injury and yes I count that as one single injury. I remember going into 2006 saying I'll be happy with half a season since they weren't sure how long it would take him to recover. Last year he seemed mostly recovered from the shoulder thing and jammed his finger which can happen to any pitcher in baseball.

 

I'm more worried by his peripherals being down last year than him being hurt... in fact if he had pitched 200 IP last season I'd be MORE worried right now because it would have put too much stress on his arm after two half seasons in a row.

[JJHardy7]

I'm more worried by his peripherals being down last year than him being hurt... in fact if he had pitched 200 IP last season I'd be MORE worried right now because it would have put too much stress on his arm after two half seasons in a row.

 

So will you be worried if we sign him to an extension and he pitches 200 IP this year? I really don't understand the logic in relation to IPs. If he's the ace, he should pitch the innings it takes and you should ride that horse. Sheets isn't getting younger and if he can't handle the stress on his arm he shouldn't be a player we give a ton of money to.

[Ennder]

He pitched 141 IP last year so no, 190-200 IP would be fine this season. Any time a pitcher jumps more than 50 IP I get worried about his arm and when the jump is 100 IP I get really worried. The finger injury was not related to his previous injury so that gets to finish healing and he didn't overwork himself. While I'd gladly have had him play full time last year from an outside view it probably helped him long term that he got to sit part of last year.

 

I don't know if I want him signed to an extension or not, I'd really have to see how he does the first couple months of the season. However I don't consider Sheets injury prone either regardless of how the IP's work out. If Sheets gets hurt in april of 2005, misses the entire year, pitches all of 2006 and then misses 7 starts of 2007 with a finger injury is he still injury prone? The total games started comes out the same as what happened with him. I think the fact that one injury bridged two years gives people a warped view of his health.

 

Now if he shows up to spring training out of shape and has problems throwing his curve, of course I don't want an extension. It is really going to depend on what happens in the first half of 2008.

[JJHardy7]

I think the fact that one injury bridged two years gives people a warped view of his health.

 

How is it a warped view? I guess my question would be what are Sheets injuries related to? Are they related to anything or do you think it's just bad luck?

 

I see him as injury prone because he continues to get hurt. I understand it hasn't been an arm injury, but I'm concerned with the overall injury front in regards to Sheets.

[Ennder]

I'd say the first injury was probably from abuse. Here are the top PAP pitchers from 2004

 

Livan Hernandez - rapidly declined

Jason Schmidt - Injured next season

Carlos Zambrano - declined every year since

Victor Zambranno - Injured

Al Leiter - freak

Russ Ortiz - injured

Bobby Madritsch - injured

Ben Sheets - injured

 

That was also a huge jump for Sheets who was never high on the lists. He pitched so well that we pushed him deep into games on a regular basis. The 2006 injury was him coming back before he was ready. When he went out in 2005 they weren't sure if he'd be able to start the season in 2006 and he pushed it. 2007 was a finger injury, that is just something that happens to pitchers. 1 in 3 SP in baseball end up on the DL at some point every season, it is just part of pitching.

 

When I think injury prone I think of Prior, Burnett or Harden. Guys who have repeated pitching arm related injuries. I'd even throw in a guy like Carpenter in that list given the extreme nature of his injuries. Sheets is more comperable to Beckett who missed time with more freaky injuries and was labelled injury prone before being traded to Boston... he has 404 IP over the last 2 seasons and probably should have been CY last year.

[JJHardy7]

I see what you're saying in your comparison to Beckett, but Beckett is two years younger and his injuries were at the beginning of his MLB career. This isn't the beginning for Sheets and he's about to approach his biggest payday (possibly) very soon. I just see this as a tremendous risk for the Brewers -- especially if some other moves go down that tie up even more money. Part of being a small market team is avoiding the risks and getting players for those they might lose (Twins and Santana).

 

Has anyone heard anything from Doug about the Brewers approaching Sheets about a deal?