Starting pitcher Charlie Newhouse,

[milwaukeesportsfan]

aka, Carlos Villanueva, will get his shot next year in the starting rotation, most likely right out of spring training. Given an entire season as a starter, how good is this kid going to be? Last year, he excelled in his return from the minor leagues, helping the Brewers avoid a losing season and keeping them in the pennant race up until the final week of the season.

 

He does not have overpowering stuff, but his mechanics are almost flawless. I could see him as the #2 starter, behind Gallardo by the 2nd half of next season. Just curious if everybody else is as excited about this kid as I am.

[TCSM]

he'll be a good #3, maybe #4, pitcher in my mind. if somehow sheets gets behind him as a starter i'd be blown away.

[southpaw121505]

I like him and think he deserves a spot in the rotation. I see him as a solid 3/4 type starter, I'll gladly be wrong if he becomes a #2. I'd like to see Sheets, Yo, Soup, CV and Bush or Capuano with the other traded. Vargas traded or in the pen, and Parra in the pen/6th starter to really monitor his innings.

 

One reason I lean towards keeping Capuano and trading Bush is that 3-5 in the rotation is so similar if it's Suppan,CV and Bush. All RHP, similar arm slots, similar stuff and all live generally just south of 90. Maybe I'm getting picky here, but I sorta prefer somewhat of a variation especially when they're bunched together in the order and will throw consecutive days.

[pitchleague]

TCSM kinda said what I was going to say, regarding Sheets. I know it is easy for us to be down on Sheets and "expecting" an injury, but, as many have said, he doesn't have anything structurally wrong with him. All his injuries have been of the "out there" variety.

 

I have complete confidence that he can be healthy for the entire year. So, I would go:

 

#1 Sheets

#2 Gallardo

#3 Villanueva/Suppan

#4 Suppan/Villanueva

#5 unsure (Capuano/Parra/Bush/somebody we don't have yet)

 

by the all-star break.

[sweepscc]

I agree keep Capuano, he has shown to have the most upside. Just make sure you have a Vargas or Parra waiting in the wings if he tanks. Bush and/or Vargas should make decent trade bait for a solid reliever.

[Patrick425]

Ok, wow, I'm a little slow. Realize now that you are talking about Villanueva (when I saw a.k.a..I assumed that the guy you were talking about was like C. Villanueva..not actually the same guy...duh!). I'm still not getting it though. Charlie Newhouse? Is that like Johnny Allstaff? Never heard it before.

[pitchleague]

Carlos=Charlie

Nueva= New

Villa= House

[OglivieHomePerm]

It's Spanglish.

 

Villa = House. Nueva = New. Carlos = Charles = Charlie.

 

I mean c'mon, could it be any more obvious :-)

[Patrick425]

Oh, OK, feel kinda stupid now. Hey, I'm barely monolingual, much less multilingual. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif

 

 

edit: made me think of when my friend use to always call Vinny Testeverde.....Vinny Greenballs.

[JohnBriggs12]

"he doesn't have anything structurally wrong with him..his injuries have...out there variety."

 

I don't agree with that at all. First it was a "groin strain" against the Cubs. Then it was blisters. Then it was a distal joint injury. Then it was hamstring tightness. Everyone of those is a body part that failed while performing his normal routine. None were the result of an external factor, such as a batted ball or getting hit by a pitch or even slipping on the grass. Earlier in his career, it was dizziness, back muscle tear etc., all while doing what a pitcher does. Each indicates a weakness in his body makeup. No they did not damage him permanently but it shows that physically, his body has trouble holding up to the strain he puts on it.

 

Parra's broken finger occured while bunting. That's an injury that I consider to be "out there".

 

As for Capuano, he last showed upside in June 2006. That was a long time ago.

[pitchleague]

JB, yeah, you're right. I guess I meant more along the lines that he hasn't had the kind of elbow and shoulder injuries that can kill careers. Sorry for the confusion.

[sbrylski]

I think Villanueva=Chris Capuano. Similar K rates and similar BB rates so far, and though CV probably has a little potential yet to improve them, he also gives up a tad more flyballs and home runs.

 

I think people are a little too high on Villanueva and a little too down on Capuano. I think they are both 4.00-4.25 ERA pitchers in a neutral environment.

[ILuvDaBush]

I would like to point out that between Soup, Chuckie Newhouse, Cappy, and Bush, Bush has the most velocity. He also is almost Sheets-like in K/BB, and he has proven to be an innings-eating horse. Then again, as you can see from my moniker, I'm quite the fan of Bush, the pitcher, not the president.

[thebruce44]

I think Villanueva=Chris Capuano. Similar K rates and similar BB rates so far, and though CV probably has a little potential yet to improve them, he also gives up a tad more flyballs and home runs.

I think people are a little too high on Villanueva and a little too down on Capuano. I think they are both 4.00-4.25 ERA pitchers in a neutral environment.

 

I know Capuano has had good secondary numbers that don't quite mirror his ERA, but its a little difficult for me to agree that they are equal. In 168 innings (all when under 24 years old) CV has had an ERA of 3.86. That is better than any season Capuano has had in his 5 tries...and they have had the same defense behind them.

 

You could argue that CV has an advantage coming out of the bullpen, but I think he has actually pitched better as a starter.

[hp2444]

Charlie Newhouse should be the clear choice over Cappy. The only good thing you could say before last season was that Cappy was that he would take the ball every 5th day. After being injured, the crew should have no use for him. His stuff is just not very good. There are not many Tom Glavine's aka a soft throwing lefty that is successful for many years as a starting pitcher.

[Zycho32]

Testaverde means Green Balls?

 

So what does Vicenzio or the proper spelling of that name mean?

[fondybrewfan]

Is there a reason Villenueva was never highly regarded in the minor leagues. Was the perception that he just didnt have good enough stuff? Without being a statistical genious are their any indications from last year the perhaps his performance was a fluke? I love the guy of course but makes me nervous when a guy who was never thought of that highly all of a sudden becomes a stud any everyone expected him to maintain if not improve his performance

[sbrylski]

I know Capuano has had good secondary numbers that don't quite mirror his ERA, but its a little difficult for me to agree that they are equal. In 168 innings (all when under 24 years old) CV has had an ERA of 3.86. That is better than any season Capuano has had in his 5 tries...and they have had the same defense behind them.

 

A fine point. I'm just going to place a little more emphasis on "secondary" numbers in predicting future preformance. That said, we don't exactly have a large sample from CV to go off of either, so I'll respect a visual scouting report on him more than I would a vet.

 

But ERA can fluctuate a fair bit with minimal change in a pitcher's preformance. Capuano's "secondary" stats have been quite consisent, yet his ERA has been from 4.00 to 5.00. I have a hard time contributing this to something Capuano can control. Did he forget how to pitch with RISP for a season? Or is it his fault more flyballs fell in for hits last season than they did in years past? Of course, there will be some things a pitcher can consistently do that will help him maintain a lower ERA outside of their "secondary" stats, but their effects have been proven to be relatively small.

 

Anyway, point being there is a chance CV's 3.86 isn't indicative of his true talent, rather just within his range of ERA's his talent plus what natural fluctuation would allow. With Capuano's range as an example, CV's true talent range could be 3.80 to 4.80. Of course it could also be 2.90 to 3.90, but his "secondary" stats, the dominating factors, suggest more to the former.

[sbrylski]

Is there a reason Villenueva was never highly regarded in the minor leagues. Was the perception that he just didnt have good enough stuff? Without being a statistical genious are their any indications from last year the perhaps his performance was a fluke? I love the guy of course but makes me nervous when a guy who was never thought of that highly all of a sudden becomes a stud any everyone expected him to maintain if not improve his performance

Villanueva's secondary stats suggest his 3.86 ERA was on the very low end of posibilities. He's young and could improve of course, but there could be a .2 to .5 ERA regression next season as his most likely ERA.

As for why he wasn't highly regarded in the minors, I have no idea.

[Patrick425]

Testaverde means Green Balls?

Well, I believe verde means green (latin?) and then my friend took some liberties with Testa.

[RightFieldCoder]

Verde is Italian for green. A google search shows that Testa is a martial arts from Ethiopia that emphasises head butting.

[clancyphile]

Actually, I'd plug Capuano in as the #5.

 

Rotation: Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villanueva, Capuano

Bullpen: Turnbow, Wise, McClung, Bush, Shouse, Mota, Parra

[ILuvDaBush]

I'd take a rotation of Sheets/Harden/Yo/Chuckie/Soup with Cappy in LR and Bush in set-up, and Parra hanging in AAA, in a state of arby-clock freeze.

[JoeHova]

So, do you guys see that Villanueva AND Capuano apparently wasn't enough to get Jose Valverde from Arizona? The Brewers dodged a bullet there if that was actually on the table. Villanueva alone is too much to give up for Valverde.