...and Gord Ash as Sancho Panza

[Raw Biz]

I'd have to agree with just about everything TheBrewer said. And I do believe that now is the time to spend money but I just think we need to be careful on who we spend that money on. I don't think anyone is saying that we should just sit back and be content with what we have now. As many have said, the offseason just began. To have re-signed Cordero would have been a waste of resources. And I know some may think that trading for Rolen who is overpaid and coming off injuries would be stupid but I would much rather take a chance on someone like him who can still provide solid offense and great defense instead of on a closer. Yes the Brewers should be spending money now but like others have said, it's difficult to do in free agency as most guys are over 30, want 3-4 years, and 10-15+ (even more) mil a year. We need a 3B, a LF, or a CF and right now, I think it's looking more and more like Rolen would be a great fit.

[danzig6767]

Lee and Cordero are the only two significant players to leave the last two years IMO, replacing Linebrink with Riske seems pretty much a wash.

 

Lee--Six years and 100? I wouldn't have given Lee that contract if i ran any NL baseball team. It's only a matter of when, not if Lee needs to be a DH.

 

Cordero--I wanted to keep him more than others here. I was fine with Melvin offering 42 million over four years. A good closer vs a mediocre one can mean a couple extra wins in a season and in a tight playoff race, the difference between being in the playoffs or watching them. I can't blame Melvin here though, he offered Cordero what the Mets paid Billy Wagner, it wasn't some low ball offer to pretend to fans that the team tried to keep Cordero. Melvin asked Cordero's agent if the Brewers offer was close to the highest one and was told, not really, even though the Reds offer ended up only being one extra million per. Makes me wonder if Cordero really wanted to come back here. Either way, 42 million was a damn fair offer and if Coco's agent wasn't willing to tell Doug how much more it would take, i can't blame Melvin for finally saying, ok that's it. If Cordero really wanted to return, he could have had his agent be sure to get something worked out with us given how close the two offers were.

 

If i was in Cordero's shoes and really wanted to be back in Milwaukee, tell the agent to see if a middle ground can be struck, say 44 million over four years. My guess is Melvin would have said ok. Instead Cordero and his agent wanted Melvin to keep offering more with knowing if Cordero truly had another offer out there and was bidding against himself or if he did have an offer, for how much. If Cordero had any strong feelings about being back as a Brewer, he'd be back.

[Robideaux]

Just one point: We didn't let Lee and Cordero walk. In essence, they are the same player. We traded Lee for Cordero. If we hadn't traded Lee, we never would have had Cordero in the first place. We let Cordero go, but we tried to sign him to a more-than-fair deal. Personally, I want the Brewers to spend money now to make the team better, but I know those resources are not infinite. As long as they invest that 42 mil or so that was supposed to go to Cordero into other phases to make the team on the field better, I will be happy.

[pogokat]

both those guys are scott podsednik

[TooLiveBrew]

1/2 Podsednick, 1/2 Luis Vizcaino. No wonder they've been superhuman.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Is it too bad Cordero is gone? Yes, but again, 1/7th your payroll towards a one inning reliever is vastly too much"

 

Again, please try to divorce yourself from that whole quantity innings notion, RoCo. They're critical innings. In win-or-lose situations, every time he hits the mound. I don't care of a closer contributes toward 83 victories via 70 innings, 40 innings or 120.

 

Try that same line of thought with David Ortiz. He doesn't play the field, and only contributes 4 to 5 plate appearances out of 80-90 (both teams batting) per game. That's about 5% of each game he's in, that he personally affects. And even then, he's injured from time to time, and when he's intentionally walked, he just stands there.

 

But are Big Papi's contributions to the Red Sox significant? Undoubtedly.

 

Similarly, if a 1-inning closer influences the outcome of a game for 4-5 batters or so (or just 1 with a well-timed triple play, or 3, if he does it right! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ), that's about the same level of "game influence."

 

And again, it's not Cordero's fault that Prince, JJ, Ryan, Corey, Manny, Yo....are all making minimum wage. In this case, it's not a percentage of team payroll issue, since so many of our mainstays are still envious of all that big cash Walgreen's shift managers earn.

 

These days, if we want to remain a playoff contender, top-flight closers tend to cost 8 figures per season. OK, if the small-market Brewers, with only $70,000,000 in payroll, tops, had to pay Prince $10,000,000, JJ another $7 mil, Braun another $10 mil, etc., then of course I'd agree with you that CoCo doesn't fit, financially. But that 1/7th rule doesn't fit in this case.

 

Now it's TheBrewer's turn. Is this my place? I guess it must be, since I just got put in it.

 

"1st, the Front office haters etc, get a life seriously. Go write a letter to Doug and Mark. "

 

You don't agree. Fine. But don't be rude. I guess there's no room within Brewer Nation for fans who don't share your viewpoint.

 

"2nd, the Brewers payroll was horrific before Mark took over the club. It's still in the lower brackets compared to other franchises, but its what double or triple of what Selig had it at? "

 

So, by this logic, if you take a nap in a septic tank, and then wash your face and hands, you're now accceptably cleaned up enough to meet Kristin Davis? During sale time, the Brewers payroll under the Seligs almost literally couldn't get lower. Mark has indeed raised it up to more respectable levels, yet it's still among the lower tier in the majors, which reinforces my point that EVERY team has raised their payroll, so what Mark has done is not so special. Our attendance, TV ratings, merchandising, are all way up, and so is Mark's revenue sharing check. But Ned's still here, free agent stars continue to leave and we're still not a playoff team. In many ways, things haven't really changed much yet.

 

"...the Oakland model, is to keep replinishing the farm system, and keep putting waives of prospects into the major leagues....For gosh sakes Brauns name has come up and he had his 1st major league AB this season, jesus christ. Not all those guys are going to be re-signed face it. The Brewers brass will count on the minor league talent that keeps coming upwards. How many players has Oakland re-signed of their star players? Yea thats what I thought."

 

Yeah, let's emulate what the A's have become.

 

You don't mention that, over the years, it has helped Oakland tremendously that there are only 3 teams to compete against in their division. By process of elimination, 1 out of the 4 is awarded an AL West title every season, even if they're under .500.

 

It also certainly helps that one of their divisional rivals is the perennially stumbling Texas Rangers, who are comparable to the down-and-down-and-up-and-down-and-down Reds in our division.

 

Gently mix in the occasionally lucid Seattle Mariners, who compete every few years, but are hampered by a front office which unblinkingly opens their checkbook to Scott Boras every winter. Promising another Greg Maddux, Boras brings Seattle a Jarrod Washburn. Promising another Alex Rodriguez, Boras gives Pat Gillick an Adrian Beltre. Promising another JARED Weaver, Boras delivers his brother JEFF. This winter, Boras will convince John Ellis and Chuck Armstrong that there are a dozen other teams offering his client, Andruw Jones, $20-25 million a year, for 10 years. And they'll buy it.

 

The only threat left is the Angels. And yes, Anaheim is a formidable opponent....when they're not losing Bartolo Colon, Troy Glaus, Garrett Anderson, Tim Salmon, Darrin Erstad and Troy Percival to crippling, season-ending injuries most years.

 

With the Angels largely banged up every other season, the Mariners hypnotized by Scott Boras's shiny beads, and the Rangers being the Rangers, it's not that tough to fall assbackwards into a playoff spot.

 

But when they inevitably qualify for the postseason, how do they do? By default, Oakland will play the role of AL West Whack-a-Mole in a given postseason, but they get the bum's rush pretty quickly once the competition ramps up. How many pennants has Billy Beane enjoyed? Not a one.

 

And this past season, how did the A's fare, now that Beane's Everlasting Gobstopper of a rotation is nearly down to a stump? 76-86. You can only roll the dice by trading away quality players for maybe's only so long until it catches up to you. And now, Danny Haren and Eric Chavez are being shopped as the next salary-dump candidates. If the Rangers ever wake up, Oakland may finish in last next season. Do we want that business model for the Brewers? To use your own deft, in-your-face retort, "Yeah, that's what I thought."

 

"be grateful for everything this club has been able to do the past few years. I really don't care to hear you moan and groan about how the Brewers F.O isn't meeting your expectations."

 

So all fans should just shut up, be grateful for Ned's second historic post-All Star break collapse, just blindly support every management decision, with no dissenting opinions? OK, you're right, TheBrewer. I'll come along quietly, sir...

[sbrylski]

Gently mix in the occasionally lucid Seattle Mariners, who compete every few years, but are hampered by a front office which unblinkingly opens their checkbook to Scott Boras every winter. Promising another Greg Maddux, Boras brings Seattle a Jarrod Washburn. Promising another Alex Rodriguez, Boras gives Pat Gillick an Adrian Beltre. Promising another JARED Weaver, Boras delivers his brother JEFF.

 

Sometimes it sounds like this is what you want us to do. Open up our checkbooks for Aaron Rowand?

 

Yeah, let's emulate what the A's have become.

 

Yes, let's. Eight straight winning seasons from 1997 to 2006, and five playoff births (4 team division or not, they won 91, 93, 96, and 103 games in their division championship seasons). Why is that unappealing? Because they didn't win a WS? The more often you make the playoffs, the better chance you'll have for a title.

 

You want us to be a bottle rocket, I want to be a diesel engine.

 

EDIT: Btw, I didn't write that last line. Its from something, but I can't remember...

[DuWayne Steurer]

Again, please try to divorce yourself from that whole quantity innings notion, RoCo. They're critical innings. In win-or-lose situations, every time he hits the mound. I don't care of a closer contributes toward 83 victories via 70 innings, 40 innings or 120.

Cordero converted 87% of his save attempts last year, while major league average is generally around 85%. I'll argue that an "average" closer who will likely cost half of what Cordero cost will probably cost you no more than 1 or 2 games per season, if that. I'm not saying 2 less wins isn't a big deal, but I don't think Cordero is an elite closer, and at his age I don't think he's going to sustain the kind of production he put up this year for very long.

 

Again, for what it's worth, I think the closer role is extraordinarily overrated. All too often last year the less glamourous setup guys (Wise, Turnbow) would come in in the 8th and face the 3-4-5, while Cordero would get to face the bottom of an order, but get the only stat that matters when it comes to financial implications, The Save. We're simply going to have to agree to disagree that the 9th inning is more "high leverage" than the 8th or earlier innings.

 

Is David Riske a replacement for Cordero? No, he's not, and that's not what he was brought on board for. But again, it's December 2nd, and I'll reserve judgement between now and then.

[Raw Biz]

I'd have to agree that I'd love to follow the A's model. Sure they'v made the playoffs in a 4 team division but they've done so winning 90+ games. I don't think anyone is saying that we can't criticize the Brewers. But so far, I don't really see much to criticize, other than Yost. Doug Melvin has done a great job and if you don't think that the Brewers are on the rise and are genuinely a good team, then there must be something wrong with you. Now it almost seems like you'd be criticizing for the sake of criticizing.

[TheBrewer]

Now it's TheBrewer's turn. Is this my place? I guess it must be, since I just got put in it.

 

"1st, the Front office haters etc, get a life seriously. Go write a letter to Doug and Mark. "

 

You don't agree. Fine. But don't be rude. I guess there's no room within Brewer Nation for fans who don't share your viewpoint.

I wasn't trying to be rude, but in all honesty I'm tired of hearing peopls smash the Brewers F.O or just critique and critizie everything.

 

 

"2nd, the Brewers payroll was horrific before Mark took over the club. It's still in the lower brackets compared to other franchises, but its what double or triple of what Selig had it at? "

 

So, by this logic, if you take a nap in a septic tank, and then wash your face and hands, you're now accceptably cleaned up enough to meet Kristin Davis? During sale time, the Brewers payroll under the Seligs almost literally couldn't get lower. Mark has indeed raised it up to more respectable levels, yet it's still among the lower tier in the majors, which reinforces my point that EVERY team has raised their payroll, so what Mark has done is not so special. Our attendance, TV ratings, merchandising, are all way up, and so is Mark's revenue sharing check. But Ned's still here, free agent stars continue to leave and we're still not a playoff team. In many ways, things haven't really changed much yet.

If you noted, I said it was still nothing to jump for cheer about, but out of all of major league baseball it came in 18th out of 30 major league clubs in 2007. 71 million. Thats not bad. Compare it to what it use to be at, I'd say that's pretty dam good considering Selig had around 20-30 million or so.... Look for this realm for the future, the 70-80 million dollar range. Again and again, Mark has told Doug that if the right player comes along in a trade and they have to pickup salary, they will do it. Florida in what 2006 had a 17 million dollar payroll. Correct me if I'm wrong, but theres still a buncha teams that are in the range of payrolls that the Brewers use to be in. 20-40 million. Specifically 4 teams. The Nats, Marlins, Pirates and TB.

 

 

"...the Oakland model, is to keep replinishing the farm system, and keep putting waives of prospects into the major leagues....For gosh sakes Brauns name has come up and he had his 1st major league AB this season, jesus christ. Not all those guys are going to be re-signed face it. The Brewers brass will count on the minor league talent that keeps coming upwards. How many players has Oakland re-signed of their star players? Yea thats what I thought."

 

Yeah, let's emulate what the A's have become.

 

You don't mention that, over the years, it has helped Oakland tremendously that there are only 3 teams to compete against in their division. By process of elimination, 1 out of the 4 is awarded an AL West title every season, even if they're under .500.

 

It also certainly helps that one of their divisional rivals is the perennially stumbling Texas Rangers, who are comparable to the down-and-down-and-up-and-down-and-down Reds in our division.

 

Gently mix in the occasionally lucid Seattle Mariners, who compete every few years, but are hampered by a front office which unblinkingly opens their checkbook to Scott Boras every winter. Promising another Greg Maddux, Boras brings Seattle a Jarrod Washburn. Promising another Alex Rodriguez, Boras gives Pat Gillick an Adrian Beltre. Promising another JARED Weaver, Boras delivers his brother JEFF. This winter, Boras will convince John Ellis and Chuck Armstrong that there are a dozen other teams offering his client, Andruw Jones, $20-25 million a year, for 10 years. And they'll buy it.

 

The only threat left is the Angels. And yes, Anaheim is a formidable opponent....when they're not losing Bartolo Colon, Troy Glaus, Garrett Anderson, Tim Salmon, Darrin Erstad and Troy Percival to crippling, season-ending injuries most years.

 

With the Angels largely banged up every other season, the Mariners hypnotized by Scott Boras's shiny beads, and the Rangers being the Rangers, it's not that tough to fall assbackwards into a playoff spot.

 

But when they inevitably qualify for the postseason, how do they do? By default, Oakland will play the role of AL West Whack-a-Mole in a given postseason, but they get the bum's rush pretty quickly once the competition ramps up. How many pennants has Billy Beane enjoyed? Not a one.

 

And this past season, how did the A's fare, now that Beane's Everlasting Gobstopper of a rotation is nearly down to a stump? 76-86. You can only roll the dice by trading away quality players for maybe's only so long until it catches up to you. And now, Danny Haren and Eric Chavez are being shopped as the next salary-dump candidates. If the Rangers ever wake up, Oakland may finish in last next season. Do we want that business model for the Brewers? To use your own deft, in-your-face retort, "Yeah, that's what I thought."

 

So did you want to turn this into analyizing all the teams. I'm not sure I understand what your saying. If your saying the NL West is weak, as to why the A's have done so well the past 10 years, great, then we could so easily compare that division to our division, and under your theory there, we should be able to compete for the next 10+ years based upon our prospects etc and what the A's have done.

 

Not to mention, the A's have to play the Yankees, and Boston etc. ....

 

But in my opinion, Melvin may rival Beane, as Melvin really has a knack for finding misc. pieces that other clubs don't want, and turning them into gold as mentioned above. When was the last time the A's took on a large contract for a few seasons via trade, such as the Breweers did back then with Carlos Lee. The A's have signed some nice 1yr contracts such as Frank Thomas etc and that's helped them compete, but IMO the Brewers have alot more going for them than the A's do in terms of resouces and $$ etc.

 

 

"be grateful for everything this club has been able to do the past few years. I really don't care to hear you moan and groan about how the Brewers F.O isn't meeting your expectations."

 

So all fans should just shut up, be grateful for Ned's second historic post-All Star break collapse, just blindly support every management decision, with no dissenting opinions? OK, you're right, TheBrewer. I'll come along quietly, sir...

I'm not telling you to shut up, but IMO, the Brewers have really come a far way from the Taylor/Selig regime. To go to this point and critque them and undermine everything there doing like your pretty much doing..It's great that they have fans like you that are this involved and care that much that they do this is great.. I questions moves and transactions also, but at the same time as I said, I'm very grateful for everything that the Brewers brass has done for us. We were losers back in the day for how many years? Were winners now. I understand questioning moves, and transactions etc, but only to a point, not questioning the entire F.O of the Brewers and saying they havn't changed since back in the days. Thats clearly finished those days and just foolish id say maybe IMO to do that.

 

But like I said:

 

Websters Dictionary: Milwaukee Brewers Baseball Organization

Annual Payroll 70-80 Million Dollars led by Mark Antansio

 

The Brewers will spend on ocasional contracts ala Jeff Suppan at 40 million every now and then in that tier, they will bring in the Carlos Lee type player via trade for 8-9 million a season for a couple years, and they will re-sign SOME of their own guys, they will find some scraps in the dark like Scot Podsednik and Francisco Cordero, but the main focal point of this team for years will always be the new and upcoming young players. The Oakland model of building on young players will never be complete. Milwaukee will never be able to go "well we did what Oakland did", because thats never complete, it's always an on-going method. While Milwaukee may stand a better chance to have more money to spend than Oakland in being able to re-sign some players, the farm system will always be their major focus for years to come, sprinkled with crafty pickups a few mid-level free agents and some invalueable trades, the Milwaukee organization should have more success than Oakland because of their resources and their ways.

[Big Reed]

I'll just say Geno doesn't complain half as much as I do. And I've always loved his posts whether I agreed with them or not. I think the thing is we all want the brewers to be a winner. But we definitely have different views on how that is to be done.

 

geno and I both want the brewers to spend more money and acquire more veteran players. The opposition to our desires frequently points out FA mistakes like Hammonds and Raines. I know neither of us wanted the brewers to sign or trade for either of those players. One point about spending money unwisely on free agents is that the unwise moves were not made by Melvin. they were made by guys named Bando and Taylor who are both long gone. other FA mistakes were made by owners like the one in Baltimore who had money to waste. Stienbrenner's signing of the rocket this year didn't look wise to many of our stats geeks, but it did put fans in the stands and sold pay per view channels, which was probably his main objective.

 

I want Melvin to spend more money on free agents because I have faith in Melvin that he'll spend the money wisely. I have to believe he knew exactly what he was getting in his trades for Linebrink and Estrada. Both players' stats for Milwaukee were very close to their career averages. Neither trade was a stupid trade. Signing Suppan provided the brewers a nice veteran starter. Suppan came very close to his career average as well. Cordero did for Milwaukee almost exactly what he produced for Texas. I'm not a big Mench fan, but he also produced as advertised. None of these moves netted the brewers a hidden nugget, but we got the player as advertised. Koskie was a very nice pick-up. That's why I want Melvin to spend more. I think he's a very good judge of talent. I have no doubt he would not make the same bad mistakes his previous GMs made. Was the acquisition of Larry Hisle a bad move by a former brewers gm? Could he have foreseen his injury?

 

As for Cordero, I have a big problem with a GM who loses a player when the two sides are only $1 million apart. This tells me that the GM was not aggressive enough in retaining the player. it tells me that the GM is satisfied in losing a bidding war to a rival team in his own division. Teams should never allow one of their divison rivals to steal one of their free agents. Melvin had to know it was Cincy who made the offer to Cordero. And he had to have sources who informed him how much Cincy's offer really was. melvin should have done what it took to ensure cordero did not sign with Cincy, and done what it took to resign him.

 

Sometimes it appears as if melvin is afraid of making a wrong move, so he makes no move. Teams that make no moves do not succeed. Even championship teams refine their rosters. Along the same lines, it was a huge mistake on colorado's part to allow Matsui to sign elsewhere. he was a big part of their success last year and they allowed him to leave for what amounted to peanuts in today's free agent market.

 

What I don't understand /believe are the statements from the brewers, the press and posters here stating we made cordero a very nice offer and his agent would not allow us to match the offer the reds made. I'm not 14 years old. I think that statement is pure BS. if Melvin wanted to, he could have matched or bettered the offer, and I'm sure Cordero's agent would have listened. And if cordero wanted to stay in Milwaukee, I'm also sure he has enough balls to tell his agent to make it happen rather than saying at his press conference it was out of his control. I've told enough lies in my life to know when I'm being lied to.

 

Just once I'd like to see a professional owner in Wisconsin focus on winning a championship rather than focus on maintaining a profit.

[bklynbrewcrew]

It would be nice if we could sign Sheets and keep some of our young stars past the 6 yr free agency period. I hope Mark A ponies up for the likes of Weeks, Braun, Hart and Fielder when the time comes. I too agree with Geno about there being too much excitement about draft picks when losing star players. Picks in the 30's and 40's arent sure things by any stretch and when we have a team that is capable of winning I dont get very excited about players that wont wear a Brewers uniform for 3 years or more down the line.

[Tbadder]

Capable of winning? Winning what? Certainly not a division title. So, Scott Rolen is gonna turn the Brewers into a playoff contender? I respectfully don't see it. The Brewers have major fixes to figure out before they're truly competitive, if they ever can be competitive with the nucleus they have. It's a hitter centered nucleus, and there's not enough young pitching to make them a true threat. Now if we had two Gallardos along with the others, just maybe, or two Gallardos and a Marmol or Chamberlin, but they don't and I don't see any pitchers on the horizon.

 

I just don't understand the broken down old fart theory of baseball. Maybe we could sign Clemens or Thomas or Thome or countless other older, recycled players that aren't going to put their team over the top. We've only had a whiff of success because of draft picks. Stockpile them, get a steady stream going, and maybe we can talk significant winning (90+ per season) but before hand, everything else is premature.

[Baldkin]

They have a Gallardo and a Villanueva.

That could end up being very close to two Gallardo's.

[Robideaux]

TBadder,

 

You're really trying to say that a team that lost a division by 2 games is not capable of winning the same division the following season? By what logic do the Brewers need to be turned into a playoff contender? That moniker is usually applied to teams that are close to (as in 2 games) or in the playoffs. Did you follow the Brewers last season--they were certainly capable of leading the division for long stretches of time. What is your litmus test for a "playoff contender"?

[Big Reed]

I think Tbadder's point was that last year was the brewers' best chance to win the pennant while the other teams in the division were either weak or had injuries to key players. I have to believe the Cubs will continue to spend big bucks on more free agents. That means they should be even better in 2008. I also believe the Cardinals with a healthy Carpenter and Mulder in their starting rotation will be vastly improved. the reds added Cordero and hamilton will have an entire year, and freel will be healthy. The Astros will have matsui to replace biggio and will no longer have lidge blowing saves.

 

The facts are the division will be a lot harder to win next year. And while the brewers were only 2 games back of division winner Chicago, they were never in contention to be a wild card team. To be considered a play-off contender, I believe a team should be a consistant 90 game winning team. last year's success was nice. This year will prove if the brewers have what it takes to go up another level, or come back down to Earth.

[Paulus88]

Wait Contenders... in the National league. Not one of the playoff teams from the NL had two Gallardos last year and yet they all contended. The Brewers threeheaded young pitching monster (Parra included) looks pretty good compared to the rest of the league.

 

I will concede that a Marmol or the D-Backs Pena type would be awesome.

[Thurston Fluff]

It seems like we all want to follow the Oakland/Minnesota model of not over spending for players. Sure its been successful for them. They've made the playoffs quite a few times, but how many World Series have they won? ZERO. The Marlins have won two in the roughly the same time.

 

This never made sense to me. The best team many times don't win the world series so should teams not strive to be the best? Should they take the Baltimore or Seatle route and spend freely and do no better? How about the Yankees? They've been trying to buy a WS ring for over 1/2 a decade without success. The run of Ws success they did have was when they had a great crop of home grown talent come up and play together. The reason neither team won the world series during that span is not because they didn't spend money foolishly on free agents or by some inherent flaw in the way they approached building thier franchises. It was simply because the post season is short all the teams are talented and anything can happen. Look at St. Louis they puit together a good team and won one WS title. With the worst team they had during that run. Should St louis have tried to have a poorer team those years they didn't win the WS? After all according to the "they didn't win a WS rationelle" that was the correct recipe for success. According to that arguement having a worst team, both in the playoofs that year and the worst of the St. Louis teams, was the right approach.

The best recipe to win a WS is to put together as many playoff teams as possible. Odds are if you put enough of them together the team will win it at least once. See the Braves if you need an illustration of the point. Oakland and MN are two teams in similar circumstances to the Brewers who did that. The fact that they failed to win it all isn't due to their approach so, with all due respect, to say we shouldn't emulate it for that reason is simply misguided reasoning.

 

I know neither of us wanted the brewers to sign or trade for either of those players. One point about spending money unwisely on free agents is that the unwise moves were not made by Melvin. they were made by guys named Bando and Taylor who are both long gone.

 

I don't get this. If the guys who spent on free agents were poor judges of value why would one complain about the guy who doesn't follow the same path? I think CoCo would have been worth the price but not Lee. I think Melvin felt the same way but never got a chance to match the offer if the information we are receiving is accurate. Can't blame him for that. I'd have been fine with Linebrink but see no real diffence between him and Riske. Melvin has shown he will pay if the right player is available. Even small things like the Mota trade show his willingness to pay to improve even by small increments. As for the closers role Coco had an 87% success rate. IIRC Turnbow managed to not get scored upon 85% of the time. If Turnbow blows every save he got scored upon that would have been a whopping 2% differance for about a $7 million savings that can be spent improving other areas of the team. Not a bad tradeoff IMO.

[Fatter than Joey]

GENO!

 

As always a great read -- While the volume of cynicism never fails to disappoint, I was a little disappointed by the flavor of it.

 

From one cynic to another...

 

CoCo's DoDough$ -- I have a hard time getting aboard the cynic train on this as you present it. DM offered 4/42 and claims to have not gotten the chance to beat 4/46 -- I tend to think that DM would have topped that if he was given the chance. What makes me cynical about this whole thing, is that I think that there might be reasons why CoCo did not want to return to Milwaukee, and I think if we had a different GM/manager -- 4/42 may have worked, or a last-chance to beat 4/46 would have been extended.

 

and your front office types are quick to comment on those Type A compensatory draft picks

 

I have been thinking a lot about this. There is a lot of talk about how good the Brewers have been at drafting, and how the Brewers have a Rumpelstiltskinesque ability to spin draft picks into gold, however we haven't been very good overall with pitching or catching, and I think we are reaching our limit of "guys with questionable defense that can hit", therefore I am less enthused by draft picks than most.

[Raw Biz]

As for following an Oakland or Minnesota plan, I'd be happy to make the playoffs consistently (say 6 out of the next 10 years) even without winning the WS once. I just want some excitement and getting to the playoffs is a great step. Following the Oak/MN model will put us there. Once we are able to do that consistently, then we can wory about how to win the WS.

[Tbadder]

Robideaux: I truly don't think the Brewers are a division-winning worthy team--certainly no threat to the Yanks, Sox, Indians, etc. The NL Central is so weak and yet despite their considerable talent they couldn't beat the Cubs?! However, if they can turn on the minor-league taps again soon, I believe they can win 90 or more games for 4 or 5 years. I believe they must go this route because signing enough free agents isn't gonna happen. Trading for world class players isn't gonna happen. So the Brewers are stuck hoping their young kids will improve. Does anyone really believe Hart will hit .312 with 35 homers, and a .380OBP? Will Fielder hit 62 homers; will Braun hit .348 with 51 homers while improving his defense so much that he stops being a millstone around our necks. Does anyone not believe Hardy had a career year? How exactly are the Brewers going to improve? Maybe Gallardo? Maybe Parra? Maybe Sheets (I wouldn't count on it)? I think their talent has basically tapped out and they're not getting much better.

 

Paulus: Good point about Parra. I hope you're right.

 

Now I do think the Brewers will make one significant signing: Andruw Jones. If he can return to form there could be a real domino affect to the positive. I also think they'll make one trade, and I don't think it'll be Rolen. I think it'll be Hank Blalock to platoon with Hall at 3rd.

[Thurston Fluff]

Does anyone really believe Hart will hit .312 with 35 homers, and a .380OBP? Will Fielder hit 62 homers; will Braun hit .348 with 51 homers while improving his defense so much that he stops being a millstone around our necks. Does anyone not believe Hardy had a career year? How exactly are the Brewers going to improve? Maybe Gallardo? Maybe Parra? Maybe Sheets (I wouldn't count on it)? I think their talent has basically tapped out and they're not getting much better.

 

I find it hard to believe Hardy, Hart, Weeks, Parra, YoGa, Fielder and Braun all hit the peak of thier potential in the first three years of playing major league baseball and will not improve. YoGa, Parra and Braun have yet to play a full season. You have to be a grade A cynic not to think they could possibly improve. As for Hart I fully expect him to be a +300 hitter with the ability to hit 30HR and steal 30 bases and play above average defense. Why wouldn't I? In his first year as a full time player he hit .295/23 hr and 23 sb. Believe it or not it's pretty common for players to improve after their first full year. I don't see why Hardy couldn't follow last year up with similar years. I know he had a first half that will be hard to duplicate but by the same token I think he'll become a more consistant player throughout the year to balance out the numbers. Weeks is coming off a horrid year after recovering from wrist surgery. Why wouldn't he improve over last years numbers. Why would Prince not be able to maintain or improve on what he did last year? Is he going to get less power as he approaches his prime? Is his selectivity going to somehow buck the trend set by thousands and go backward form where it is instead of improve? Is a full year of YoGa without innings limits somehow going to get worse? Braun may have a sophomore slump or he may go Pujols and remain one of the top hitters in baseball. Since there are precious few who did what Braun did as a rookie there is no presidence for someone his level to say one way or the other.

Now if we do accept the doom and gloom and say nothing will improve then we should say the same for all the rest of the teams. How will the Cubs do when Marmol fails to repeat his season? How about Theriot? Shouldn't we expect him to regress after his career year? We already know enough of Lilly to tell us he had as good a year as can be expected so he should regress as well. Marquis was certainly overachieving last year if you look at his career. Hill is a oynug pitcher who is in hte same boat as Villy. YoGa or Parra. There is no reason to believe he wil do anything more than our young threesome.

St Louis is old and has holes in pretty much every area other than first base and a new GM. For them to compete they need Carpenter to come back to full strength. History shows us that doesn't happen the year after surgery. I don't believe he'll even be ready for the begining of the season. Mulder has been a disappointment and has his own issues.

The Reds need Hamilton to stay healthy and clean. Why wouldn't he be as likely to have peaked or to regress as Hardy or Hart? They have plenty of talented players in the minors but why would you believe them to be any better next year than our kids who have a couple year's experience on them?

Houston is a shambles right now. By the time they get competetive agian they'll be trying to figure out what to do with the albtross of a salary DH worthy Carlos Lee is making.

Pittsburgh has a nice core of young pitchers and a few nice position players. Again why would they be any more capable of progressing than our youngsters?

In short all the reason you gave for why the Brewers core will never be good apply to all the teams. The only differance is the Brewers have a much deeper core of young players than any of the other teams. We already know veterans are either going to be similar to their careers or perhaps, like I believe will happen with Lee, Griffey and Soriano, regress with age. On rare occasions veterans will have the proverbial career year but that can happen wiht any player at any age on any team. In fact it's more likely a young player will have a better year than a veteran. It's not likely an extablished veteran will have better numbers than they usually have. It is likely younger player will improve.

Boom and Gloom may be nice in that you won't be dissappointed but where's the joy in hating everything about your team before they even get to spring training?

[Big Reed]

I personally would rather the brewers follow the florida marlins plan. They have 2 championships in the last 15 years and the oakland A's have none. it's nice that Billy Bean can write a book. So can Jose Canseco and OJ Simpson. Just because a guy writes a book and it's filled with great statistical formulas great financial abstracts, and it sounds good , doesn't mean it is the forumula for success for all teams.

 

The difference between the Florida marlins and brewers is that after the brewers sign all those great free agents, and then win the championship, and then have a fire sale and give everybody away, the brewers fans, just like packers fans would still come out in droves to watch the brewers. I don't really think the brewers would suffer the severe attendance drops that the marlins did. it would appear to me that the twins have also followed the marlins' plan rather than the Billy beane plan. After the Twins have been successful, they unload all of their good players and then regroup.

 

I'd rather be great in one year than pretty good for five. beane's book is about how to be a winning team, not a championship team. it needs a sequel, and unfortunately- Oakland A's World Champs : a season of power ball at its finest is not going to be released any time soon.

[LouisEly]

Excellent analysis backupcatchers - yes, some of the Brewers may not improve but many players in the division will regress also because they may have had career years or are getting older and starting to decline.

 

If you wana go out and be a GM and sign Carlos Lee to a 100 million dollar contract, be my guest.

 

And where did that get him? The unemployment line!

 

There's a reason you don't do contracts like that to players like that.

[Ennder]

The florida plan worked because they happened to get hot in the playoffs, not because the plan is how to build a team. Just like most teams aren't going to copy the Diamondbacks plan of giving up more runs than you score to try to make the playoffs. There is more to winning a world series than being the best team.

 

As for the Brewers aren't a playoff contending team, that is just rubbish. Gallardo and Villaneuva pitch like they did as starters last year, Sheets stays healthy, Suppan is Suppan and Capuano/Bush revert to 2006 stats and we have one of the best rotations in the NL. We already know we have one of the best offenses. It takes luck as well as being good to go to the playoffs and it takes even more luck than being good to win the world series. You strive to build a team that can be in the playoffs year after year and eventually you'll get your ring.

 

I expect every young player on this team to go up in value at some point over the next 3 years. Maybe Hardy doesn't match his HR's but his OBP goes up making up for it. Maybe Braun doesn't mash quite as much next year but his defense and situational hitting improves etc. They didn't just all have their best seasons ever last year.