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GenoSeligPrieb

Hart replaced Lee or Hall would have started at 3B and that means Braun replaced Lee. Either way we got just about the same production or better out of his replacements and well we got our best RP out of the trade too. There is no way to really complain about that.

 

Cordero is making too much money, I'm glad we didn't sign re-sign him and it has nothing to do with our market size. The key is turning the money we saved into a useful bullpen that has good depth instead of one with just a good closer.

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And I don't consider Hart to be Lee's replacement.

 

So Jenkins, who played in the same OF as Lee, is somehow his replacement? And Corey Hart, who WASN'T in the same OF with Lee and took over one of the open spots in the OF somehow isn't? Ok.....

 

But if you want to play that game:

 

Mench/Jenkins: 29 HR, 101 RBI 84 Runs, 184 hits, 44 2B, 5 3B

 

Lee: 32 HR, 119 RBI, 93 runs, 190 hits, 43 2B, 1 3B

 

Peavy, I think it is clear that Jenkins would not have on the 2007 team if Lee was resigned. It would have been Lee, Hall, and Hart in the outfield.

 

Regarding the numbers, I still don't think they were that close. You are assuming that Lee would not have put up larger numbers with Fielder, Braun, and Hart batting around him. Since Lee was equally affective against lefties and righties, that would have freed up another position either on the pitching staff or on the bench (especially considering that Lee has proven he can play a full season). I don't know where you are getting your numbers either, because in a true platoon you would have had Jenkins playing against righties and Mench against lefties. Jenkins had a .262/18/50 line with a .807 OPS against righties while Lee's line was .292/25/90 with an .859 OPS. Mench had a .314/8/26 line with a .901 OPS against lefties while Lee's line was .338/7/29 with a .956 OPS. Lee outplayed both players in that platoon and did it in park that was ranked 25th in ESPN's park factors compared to Miller Park which was ranked 16th. Lee was clearly the better option in 2007.

 

Again, this is moot if not for the fact that we have been rumored to be pursuing another player that is overpaid and has been injured in 2 of the last 3 seasons. I have a problem with that.

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And you would have had Lee's "defense"

 

Would Lee have been worse than Jenkins/Mench considering how poor of an outfielder that Mench is? I wonder if that would have evened things out a bit. Lee actually was not terrible in 2007.
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If we re-signed Linebrink, I don't think we would sign Riske. In those terms Riske = Linebrink but add in the draft picks then Riske + 2 picks is > Linebrink.

 

Why not? I think Riske would have still been signed because someone needed to replace Cordero and we would have had the salary space to do it. If Melvin is being honest about Turnbow replacing Cordero, than we would have needed help in the 7th and 8th inning and Linebrink could not have done that alone.
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Hart replaced Lee or Hall would have started at 3B and that means Braun replaced Lee. Either way we got just about the same production or better out of his replacements and well we got our best RP out of the trade too. There is no way to really complain about that.

 

Cordero is making too much money, I'm glad we didn't sign re-sign him and it has nothing to do with our market size. The key is turning the money we saved into a useful bullpen that has good depth instead of one with just a good closer.

...or the Brewers could have traded Jenkins and we would have had Lee, Hall, and Hart in the outfield with Braun at third base. Heck, I would have loved to have Hall as a super-sub in 2007 and that would have allowed Menchkins to still exist in 2007 with Lee in the outfield.

 

I respectfully disagree that Lee's numbers were comparable to Menchkins and posted why in a reply to Peavy. Jenkins and Mench certainly were not terrible. I never said that. But Lee was better.

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I don't know where you are getting your numbers either, because in a true platoon you would have had Jenkins playing against righties and Mench against lefties.

 

Yost didn't actually play them in a true platoon, so that's where the problems begin.

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Hart replaced Lee or Hall would have started at 3B and that means Braun replaced Lee. Either way we got just about the same production or better out of his replacements and well we got our best RP out of the trade too. There is no way to really complain about that.

 

Cordero is making too much money, I'm glad we didn't sign re-sign him and it has nothing to do with our market size. The key is turning the money we saved into a useful bullpen that has good depth instead of one with just a good closer.

...or the Brewers could have traded Jenkins and we would have had Lee, Hall, and Hart in the outfield with Braun at third base. Heck, I would have loved to have Hall as a super-sub in 2007 and that would have allowed Menchkins to still exist in 2007 with Lee in the outfield.

 

I respectfully disagree that Lee's numbers were comparable to Menchkins and posted why in a reply to Peavy. Jenkins and Mench certainly were not terrible. I never said that. But Lee was better.

You are making a rather large assumption though that Jenkins would have been traded, there is no way to know that we would have found someone to trade him to. Plus Lee's contract is crappy and I wouldn't have wanted it in the first place. I think people just like to complain about things. The Lee trade was a much better move than giving him the contract the Astros gave him. This is a classic example of smart management and people are trying to point at it as the team giving up.

 

There are teams like the Yankees that can hand out bad contracts and still compete long term but there are not very many of them. If you look at the playoff teams last year other than Bos/NY/Chi (IE big market) they pretty much built their team on smart contracts and young players. That is how you win in baseball. You don't overpay guys like Carlos Lee with contracts that last into well into their decline stages.

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qrk10000 wrote:

Would Lee have been worse than Jenkins/Mench considering how poor of an outfielder that Mench is? I wonder if that would have evened things out a bit. Lee actually was not terrible in 2007.

Mench isn't a bad defender. Lee played in the smallest LF in the majors. Lee catches every ball he gets to, he just doesn't get to many balls.

 

The best we can ever hope for is signing players to contracts similar in structure to what Hall got last year. This is similar to what Minnesota does and I believe they have been pretty successful.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

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Lots of great thoughts on this thread...

 

"What do you propose we do about it? Is there a certain number of posts we could make that would force Mark to spend more money? Don't you think it would be boring to whine about not having enough money every time Melvin makes a move? "

 

No, Sam, but you've got to admit that there IS a trend here. Generally, Brewer fans are usually satisfied when our front office takes a pass on spending on a major free agent. I was just taking note of this. Larry Beinfest is catching flak for the Marlins' latest attempts at a fire sale, Billy Beane's taking some heat over his rotation, Frank Thomas and now Piazza leaving. And I've read that Bill Smith and Carl Pohlad were blasted for Torii Hunter leaving, Santana being on the block, Nathan probably next. If it were Milwaukee and stars of the caliber of these 3 were on their way out, skeptics like me would complain, but the majority would praise the draft picks we'd get.

 

"Awesome post as always Geno...We are so ungodly lucky right now to have all-star and mvp level talent on this team for rookie salaries and yet we'll still probably not capitalize on it in the end due to letting guys like Lee and Cordero go while replacing them with no names. And when this three year window passes with nothing to show for it, we'll be back on the "15 year plan" of sucking badly, taking high draft picks, and crossing our fingers really really hard."

 

Thanks for the kind words, valpo.

 

This is where I was coming from here, more than anything. When your top players are pretty much ALL pre-arbitration, playing at or near the league minimum, THAT'S when you make a big strike with an Aaron Rowand, or a Torii Hunter, or some other star who can upgrade a key position and get us into the playoffs. I was so disheartened to see the same old pattern repeating itself so far this winter, especially when we have this rare window of downright cheap talent at key positions. Are Mark, Doug, Gord, etc. all waiting to make a splash and restore our franchise's dignity when Prince, Ryan, JJ, etc are all arby/free agent eligible? That'll be too late.

 

"Go take a look at Carlos Lee's 2007 stats, then take a good look at what his "no name" replacement Corey Hart put up last year as well....

 

 

But if you want to play that game:

 

Mench/Jenkins: 29 HR, 101 RBI 84 Runs, 184 hits, 44 2B, 5 3B

 

Lee: 32 HR, 119 RBI, 93 runs, 190 hits, 43 2B, 1 3B

 

"

 

Peavey,

 

For starters, you're simply taking 2 half-players and adding them up. That's 2 roster spots...2 guys you're paying over $11,000,000 to, to do the job of one. And even then, they couldn't match Lee's stats in 2007. I doubt you can honestly argue that Menchkins was good enough for you.

 

I would have been thrilled to have a Lee/Hall/Hart outfield last year and this year. OK, so Lee owns a ranch outside Houston, and he probably wanted to play close to home. But Doug's idea of a fair offer was 4 years, $48 million, while, realistically, he got over $100,000,000. That's not even close. Even so, Lee wanted to be an Astro. Fine. Then you go out and put on a full-court press and bring in another star hitter, or a star pitcher...not Jeff Suppan, ferchrissakes.

 

"70 innings a year isn't worth $12m (on this team), no matter who is pitching it. "

 

Baldkin, those 70 innings are game-on-the-line innings. Arguably 60 or so instances per season when it's win or lose. What's more significant? Dave Bush's 2nd and 3rd innings, when we can overcome his gopher balls, or those final 3 outs critical to closing out a victory? It's the quality of those 70 innings, not quantity.

 

"I actually agree with a lot of what you wrote, Geno, and I am concerned about what might happen in 3-4 years when our young stars start leaving. If the Brewers pony up and retain at least 2-3 of them, I think that I and a lot of fans will be able to live with that. However, if they all are allowed to walk away, I think we will be seriously damaging our fan base."

 

qrk:

 

You also seem to grasp my point. Attendance is at a franchise high. Key players are earning as much as the peanut vendors. NOW's the time to reward those fans, build on the momentum, make a splash, win a division title. Instead, we get "Oooh! Type A free agent picks! Gimme gimme!"

 

"Peavy, I don't know where you are getting your numbers either, because in a true platoon you would have had Jenkins playing against righties and Mench against lefties. Jenkins had a .262/18/50 line with a .807 OPS against righties while Lee's line was .292/25/90 with an .859 OPS. Mench had a .314/8/26 line with a .901 OPS against lefties while Lee's line was .338/7/29 with a .956 OPS. Lee outplayed both players in that platoon and did it in park that was ranked 25th in ESPN's park factors compared to Miller Park which was ranked 16th. Lee was clearly the better option in 2007. "

 

I should just let YOU do my debating for me, qrk! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

"So if this fruit's a Brewer's fan, his ass gotta be from Wisconsin...(or Chicago)."
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It seems like we all want to follow the Oakland/Minnesota model of not over spending for players. Sure its been successful for them. They've made the playoffs quite a few times, but how many World Series have they won? ZERO. The Marlins have won two in the roughly the same time. I know there is a lot of luck involved in the playoffs, but that still says something. I'm not saying that we need to go like Florida and over spend and then trade into mediocrity to rebuild but we should take a chance now and spend money on a good to great player while we can afford to pay Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, Hart, Gallardo and others at the same time. I will be happy if in 5 years even two of those guys are still on the team. If we keep thinking that we need to save money to sign them I think we are fooling ourselves. With Boras as Fielder's agent there is almost no chance he will stay here. If Braun improves the way everyone thinks he will, he may make A-Rod money and there is no way we could afford that. It's early to predict how Gallardo will pan out but he looks like he may be the next Johan Santana. I doubt we could afford him too. That still leaves Hardy, Weeks, and Hart to pay for too. We need to spend for the next 2 or 3 years and let the chips fall where they may after that or else we might look back and wonder about what might have been.
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qrk10000 wrote:

Would Lee have been worse than Jenkins/Mench considering how poor of an outfielder that Mench is? I wonder if that would have evened things out a bit. Lee actually was not terrible in 2007.

Mench isn't a bad defender. Lee played in the smallest LF in the majors. Lee catches every ball he gets to, he just doesn't get to many balls.

 

The best we can ever hope for is signing players to contracts similar in structure to what Hall got last year. This is similar to what Minnesota does and I believe they have been pretty successful.

 

I will admit that I don't know a lot of range factor, but according to baseballreference.com, Carlos Lee's career range factor in left field is 1.87 and Kevin Mench's is 1.63. That is actually only .07 behind Geoff Jenkins, too. I consider that to be a fairly large difference. Mench does have an edge on fielding percentage, though, but Carlos and Geoff are almost identical. Carlos also seems to average more assists per year in left field than Mench does, too.

 

I respect your idea about signing players to contracts like we did with Hall and that very well may be the best we can do. I just don't understand why would consider taking on someone like Rolen, though, who breaks that mold. My whole point is that if we would be willing to do that or offer Cordero $10+ million a year, why was it so hard for them to imagine paying Carlos Lee? That just add up in my eyes.

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THAT'S when you make a big strike with an Aaron Rowand, or a Torii Hunter, or some other star who can upgrade a key position and get us into the playoffs.
Please tell me you didn't refer to Torii Hunter and especially Aaron Rowand as a star.
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This is where I was coming from here, more than anything. When your top players are pretty much ALL pre-arbitration, playing at or near the league minimum, THAT'S when you make a big strike with an Aaron Rowand, or a Torii Hunter, or some other star who can upgrade a key position and get us into the playoffs. I was so disheartened to see the same old pattern repeating itself so far this winter, especially when we have this rare window of downright cheap talent at key positions. Are Mark, Doug, Gord, etc. all waiting to make a splash and restore our franchise's dignity when Prince, Ryan, JJ, etc are all arby/free agent eligible? That'll be too late.
That is the problem though. We have next year before Fielder is arbitration eliginble. That's it. We should be able to spend quite a bit for next year, but after that is when our current players are going to get expensive. If we could work out a one year deal with any free agent I would even go to $15M-$20M for that one year. No free agent is going to be foolish enough to sign a one year contract in most cases. Most ball players only get one big contracts in their entire careers and they are going to go for multi year contracts that will get them set for life.

 

Nobody wants to pattern themselves after Oakland/Minnesota, but the reality is that we should to some extent because we do not have limitless resources. The Marlins were really fortunate to win a world series twice. The playoffs have proven to be a crap shoot as far as who wins. The main thing seems to be getting in in the first palce. The best strategy is to qualify as often as possible.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

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1st off the Brewers were a better team without Carlos Lee.

 

2nd, if Coco is gonna sign with the Reds for gods sake, in a park he is gonna get lit up in, for a lousy 1 million a year less, then he didn't want to be here in the first place.

 

3rd, with the signing of Suppan, the Brewers have proved they will spend some money.

 

4th, I'd consider your objections more valid after all the free agents have been signed, and if the Crew still haven't done anything in the off season.

 

5th, as mentioned before the Riske plus picks may in fact be much better than a month of Linebrink and our prospects. Personally, Jack is the kinda guy who can turn those picks into gold--lets wait and see.

 

6th, the Brewers aren't done. I really believe that they will sign a major free agent (I'm guessing Andruw Jones) and make a significant trade (I'm guessing Hank Blalock). This should result in a pretty nice offensive platoon at 3rd with Hall.

 

7th, money is still an issue if we're realistic. This is a small market and by definition our resources are limited. Under Mark A. he has opened up bank a bit and we've become competitive. Lets wait a little while longer, I'm guessing our new owner's mentality is much more pro-active.

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Hart replaced Lee or Hall would have started at 3B and that means Braun replaced Lee. Either way we got just about the same production or better out of his replacements and well we got our best RP out of the trade too. There is no way to really complain about that.

 

Cordero is making too much money, I'm glad we didn't sign re-sign him and it has nothing to do with our market size. The key is turning the money we saved into a useful bullpen that has good depth instead of one with just a good closer.

...or the Brewers could have traded Jenkins and we would have had Lee, Hall, and Hart in the outfield with Braun at third base. Heck, I would have loved to have Hall as a super-sub in 2007 and that would have allowed Menchkins to still exist in 2007 with Lee in the outfield.

 

I respectfully disagree that Lee's numbers were comparable to Menchkins and posted why in a reply to Peavy. Jenkins and Mench certainly were not terrible. I never said that. But Lee was better.

You are making a rather large assumption though that Jenkins would have been traded, there is no way to know that we would have found someone to trade him to. Plus Lee's contract is crappy and I wouldn't have wanted it in the first place. I think people just like to complain about things. The Lee trade was a much better move than giving him the contract the Astros gave him. This is a classic example of smart management and people are trying to point at it as the team giving up.

 

There are teams like the Yankees that can hand out bad contracts and still compete long term but there are not very many of them. If you look at the playoff teams last year other than Bos/NY/Chi (IE big market) they pretty much built their team on smart contracts and young players. That is how you win in baseball. You don't overpay guys like Carlos Lee with contracts that last into well into their decline stages.

But what you are saying is an assumption, too, and that is pretty much all we can do at this point. Jenkins had a comparable year in 2006 to 2007 and he is generating a lot of interest on the free agent market. He very well could have been moved or we could have kept him and Mench in the outfield and used Hall as a super-sub. That would have given us a ton of depth.

 

I certainly don't see myself as a complainer and have been a Brewer loyalist for many, many years. That is why I loved Geno's post, though, and decided to post my thoughts. He at least is expressing some concern about the direction in which the Brewers have been going for the past few years (and does so in a very entertaining way, too) and I echo those opinions. They still cannot seem to stick with one strategy and that is a problem. First, Carlos is too expensive and we want to stay young and cheap. Then, we trade some top minor leaguers for a setup man in his 30s. Then, that setup man and our closer are too expensive. Now, an oft-injured and expensive third baseman on the decline is the answer? Pardon me if I am not elated with those moves and waving my big foam Brewer finger. I personally feel that we have an offensive core that has not existed in Milwaukee since the late 70s and early 80s. Players like Fielder and Braun cannot be counted on being available each year in the draft so we need to maximize their use now before they too are "too expensive" or approaching their 30s, both things that seem to almost guarantee an exit in Mil-town.

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THAT'S when you make a big strike with an Aaron Rowand, or a Torii Hunter, or some other star who can upgrade a key position and get us into the playoffs.
Please tell me you didn't refer to Torii Hunter and especially Aaron Rowand as a star.

 

Would it have made you happier if he prefaced that with "all".
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You also seem to grasp my point. Attendance is at a franchise high. Key players are earning as much as the peanut vendors. NOW's the time to reward those fans, build on the momentum, make a splash, win a division title. Instead, we get "Oooh! Type A free agent picks! Gimme gimme!"

 

There's all kinds of talk about acquiring Andruw Jones or (and?, hehe) Scott Rolen, they made a VERY legitimate offer to Cordero, who chose to NOT let the Brewers match the Reds offer, they're spending a buttload of cash on a middle reliever, and the off-season is barely 3 weeks old. While some are wondering why fans are "happy" with Melvin standing pat, I think others are contending that before we start#%+%*+@!# and moaning, maybe we ought to let the off-season play out a bit. I don't see a lot of fans saying Melvin shouldn't spend now, I think, however, they still want to see Melvin get the best bang for his buck he can get.

 

Geno, as much as I generally enjoy your posts, and agree that *now* is the time to spend a little extra to put the team over the hump, I think you're really reaching here by suggesting that the majority of the fan base is happy to see what's gone down yet. I think you're just taking bits and pieces from posts that back up your point, and ignoring that the people you disagree with (I mean, you butt heads with Al all the time, and I see several posts from him saying now is the time to overspend a bit for a guy *if he makes your team better*) who are saying the same thing you are, just not in the same way.

 

Is Riske plus 2 picks worth more than Linebrink? Sure. Was Linebrink even going to come back here? I doubt it, as several comments he made during his short time here were less than complimentary towards the organization and the city. Is it too bad Cordero is gone? Yes, but again, 1/7th your payroll towards a one inning reliever is vastly too much, not just a little. Again, we can argue the importance of those innings, but the Cubs made the postseason with Ryan Dumpster as their closer, and the Indians with Bob Wickman.

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1st, the Front office haters etc, seriously. Go write a letter to Doug and Mark.

 

2nd, the Brewers payroll was horrific before Mark took over the club. It's still in the lower brackets compared to other franchises, but its what double or triple of what Selig had it at?

 

3rd, the Oakland model, is to keep replinishing the farm system, and keep putting waives of prospects into the major leagues. First it was Weeks and Hardy, then Fielder, Hart, then this season Braun and Gallardo, even Parra. While our next waive might not be as great as those guys above, nonetheless it'll still help. LaPorta, Gamel, etc can be included in the future. I think alot of people are just so focused on re-signing what we have. For gosh sakes Brauns name has come up and he had his 1st major league AB this season, jesus christ. Not all those guys are going to be re-signed face it. The Brewers brass will count on the minor league talent that keeps coming upwards. How many players has Oakland re-signed of their star players? Yea thats what I thought.

 

4th. Melvin is a very scrapy type GM. He finds cheap pickups and turns them into gold literally. Cordero, Podsednik, Lee, Turnbow, shall I go on? Mix that with our prospects coming up, thats how this organization is going to be run, face it seriously.

 

5th. If you wana go out and be a GM and sign Carlos Lee to a 100 million dollar contract, be my guest. Who cares about matching production with Jenks and Mench, or Hart. Who cares. Reality is, thats NOT going to happen with the Brewers. There NOT going to spend 100 million dollars on a player. They DO NOT have that type of money, ala Yankee type money. That has never been the mentality of the club, and it WILL NEVER be that the mentality of the club.

 

You will see the players like Carlos Lee coming in via trades for a couple years at maybe 9-12 million, but your not going to see long term contracts to FA's for 10+ million a season. Even without long term contracts to the younger brewers such as Fielder etc, look at what our Payroll was 60-70 million this past season.

 

6th - I think alot of you are mis-reading the rumors on Rolen. Only way that happens is if STL picks up some of his salary. And then that'll bring us to maybe idk a couple years left on his contract with maybe paying him 8-9 million a season id assume, ala just like Carlos Lee when we traded for him, only Rolen a bit more dinged up.

 

 

My last point is in summary, the Brewers will spend on ocasional contracts ala Jeff Suppan at 40 million every now and then, and be in that tier, they will bring in the Carlos Lee type player for 8-9 million a season for a couple years, and they will re-sign SOME of their own guys, they will find some scraps in the dark like Scotty Po and Cordero, but the main focal point of this team for years will always be the new and upcoming young players. The Minnesotta model, and Oakland model of building on young players will never be complete. We can't just go right now "well we did what Oakland and Minn. did". Because thats never complete. While I think we stand a better chance to have more money than Oakland and Minn in being able to re-sign some players, the farm system will always be our major focus for years to come unless a billionaire like Steinbrenner buys the team and moves it to Vegas.

 

 

In conclusion, I'm very happy with what Melvin and Mark have been able to accomplish, and what they've been able to do over the past few years. I mean I guess we could go back to when Dean Talyor was the GM and Wendy Prieb was on top.. be grateful for everything this club has been able to do the past few years. I really don't care to hear you moan and groan about how the Brewers F.O isn't meeting your expectations.

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Let's see, Carlos Lee, Cordero and Linebrink. That's now a kick in the pants off $40m in salaries - or to put it another way, about half of this team's payroll. And we should be giving Melvin a hard time for not making it happen? Give me strength.

This board would have lit up like the 4th of July if Doug had pulled the trigger on those 3 deals, and anyone who says otherwise is being disingenuous.

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besides my post above, I agree it'd be beneficial to spend now while he have a little extra wiggle room, but at the same time as pointed out, good FA's want Years and Money. 4-8 years 50-100 million is what your looking at in all honesty. Not many guys are going to want to do the 1-2 year 8-18 million/season dollar deal. A. Jones is looking at like 15-20 million and he was horrific this past season and is looking so far from reports at a multi year contract.
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Websters Dictionary: Milwaukee Brewers Baseball Organization

 

The Brewers will spend on ocasional contracts ala Jeff Suppan at 40 million every now and then in that tier, they will bring in the Carlos Lee type player via trade for 8-9 million a season for a couple years, and they will re-sign SOME of their own guys, they will find some scraps in the dark like Scotty Po and Cordero, but the main focal point of this team for years will always be the new and upcoming young players. The Oakland model of building on young players will never be complete. Milwaukee will never be able to go "well we did what Oakland and Minn. did". Because thats never complete, it's always an on-going method. While Milwaukee may stand a better chance to have more money than Oakland and Minn in being able to re-sign some players, the farm system will always be their major focus for years to come.

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Geno's been saying "now" is the time to spend extra ever since I've known him.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Money doesn't win you anything, unless you spend it well. Seeing the Astros throw away cash on Matsui proves that to me.

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