Second roster projection o' the winter

[And That]

I was bored, so here is my second roster projection for the spring.

 

Amongst those intentionally not included are Ben Hendrickson and Grant Balfour. I doubt Hendrickson will be in the organization when camp breaks at the end of March. And until Balfour proves he is healthy, I don't know whether he'll make the big league club, go on a rehab assignment, be waived, or be on the DL.

 

Also not included who are presently on rosters above rookie ball are Brady Clark (I think he'll be traded if Mench and Jenkins aren't), 1B Mike Huggins, UT Craig Kuzmic, RHP Dave Bradley, RHP Vince Perkins (recovering from TJ surgery), OF Ron Davenport, OF Travis Ezi, RHP Khalid Ballouli, LHP Jeff Housman, RHP Matt Yeatman, RHP Jesse Harper (will make a club if he's healthy), RHP John Novinsky (ditto), C JR Hopf, C Kyle Phillips, 1B Grant Richardson (don't know if he's healthy), OF Hassan Rasheed, RHP Mark Rogers, RHP Bo Hall, C Brad Wilcutt, SS Ryan Barba, SS Hector Bernal, OF Nate Yoho, RHP Josh Baker and RHP Ryan Marion.

 

 Milwaukee Starting Catcher J. Estrada Backup Catcher D. Miller Starting First Baseman P. Fielder Starting Second Baseman R. Weeks Backup Middle Infielder C. Counsell Starting Third Baseman C. Koskie Starting Shortstop J. Hardy Backup Utility Fielder T. Graffanino Starting Left Fielder C. Hart Starting Center Fielder B. Hall Backup Outfielder G. Gross Starting Right Fielder G. Jenkins Backup Outfielder K. Mench Starting Pitcher #1 B. Sheets Long Relief D. Sarfate Starting Pitcher #2 C. Capuano Middle Relief #1 J. Capellan Starting Pitcher #3 J. Suppan Middle Relief #2 G. Aquino Starting Pitcher #4 D. Bush Middle Relief #3 D. Turnbow Starting Pitcher #5 C. Vargas Righthanded Setup M. Wise Closer F. Cordero Lefthanded Setup B. Shouse Nashville Starting Catcher M. Rivera Backup Catcher J. Closser Starting First Baseman B. Nelson Starting Second Baseman C. Crabbe Backup Middle Infielder C. Barnwell Starting Third Baseman R. Braun Starting Shortstop Y. Perez Backup Utility Fielder V. Rottino Starting Left Fielder D. Anderson Starting Center Fielder T. Gwynn Backup Outfielder T. Meadows Starting Right Fielder L. Nix Starting Pitcher #1 C. Villanueva Long Relief C. Oxspring Starting Pitcher #2 Y. Gallardo Middle Relief #1 C. Demaria Starting Pitcher #3 Z. Jackson Middle Relief #2 C. Spurling Starting Pitcher #4 T. Dillard Middle Relief #3 M. Meyers Starting Pitcher #5 C. Thurman Righthanded Setup S. Bray Closer L. Hackman Lefthanded Setup M. Stetter Huntsville Starting Catcher L. Palmisano Backup Catcher C. Corporan Starting First Baseman M. Carlin Starting Second Baseman H. Iribarren Backup Middle Infielder O. Chavez Starting Third Baseman A. Heether Starting Shortstop A. Escobar Backup Utility Fielder J. Eure Starting Left Fielder B. Katin Starting Center Fielder C. Fermaint Backup Outfielder K. Bibbs Starting Right Fielder S. Moss Starting Pitcher #1 M. Parra Long Relief S. Narron Starting Pitcher #2 M. Jones Middle Relief #1 A. Zumwalt Starting Pitcher #3 S. Hammond Middle Relief #2 G. Simpson Starting Pitcher #4 A. Pettyjohn Middle Relief #3 J. Lewis Starting Pitcher #5 R. Hinton Setup #1 J. Valentine Closer J. Thatcher Setup #2 B. Baez Brevard County Starting Catcher A. Salome Backup Catcher C. Medlin Starting First Baseman N. Yost Starting Second Baseman K. Holmberg Starting Third Baseman M. Gamel Backup Utility Fielder G. Rodriguez Starting Shortstop M. Bell Backup Utility Fielder S. Sollmann Starting Left Fielder M. Brantley Starting Center Fielder D. Ford Backup Outfielder R. Crew Starting Right Fielder L. Cain Backup Outfielder F. Parejo Starting Pitcher #1 W. Inman Long Relief/Piggyback R. Lluberes Starting Pitcher #2 S. Garrison Middle Relief #1 K. Roberts Starting Pitcher #3 J. Wahpepah Middle Relief #2 B. Stanczyk Starting Pitcher #4 D. Miller Middle Relief #3 P. Ryan Starting Pitcher #5 D. Welch Setup #1 D. Johnson Closer D. Renkert Setup #2 L. Pena West Virginia Starting Catcher A. Bouchie Backup Catcher N. Corredor Starting First Baseman B. Rowe Starting Second Baseman T. Green Backup Middle Infielder S. McKnight Starting Third Baseman F. de la Cruz Starting Shortstop J. Mojica Backup Utility Fielder T. Festa Starting Left Fielder C. Errecart Starting Center Fielder C. Gillespie Backup Outfielder Z. Clem Starting Right Fielder S. Chapman Backup Outfielder C. Caufield Starting Pitcher #1 B. Parillo Long Relief/Piggyback R. Mercedes Starting Pitcher #2 M. Kretzschmar Long Relief/Piggyback J. Cordero Starting Pitcher #3 M. McClendon Middle Relief #1 K. Pawelczyk Starting Pitcher #4 S. Fergusen Middle Relief #2 R. Malave Starting Pitcher #5 A. Rivas Setup #1 S. Palazzolo Closer C. Toneguzzi Setup #2 J. Romero 

[DHonks]

thanks Toby. I always love that feature. Any chance that John Alonso moves to A? And why Narron to AA, not AAA?

[And That]

I thought they might move Alonso to West Virginia last year, but clearly there were some things that need to be refined in his game. He can hit, but he needs to draw some more walks, and he needs to play better defense. Did he do enough of that repeating rookie ball? My guess is they'll hold him back another half season, but I'd sure rather see him than Rowe.

 

Narron goes to AA for a few reasons: he finished last year in Brevard, Huntsville is warmer than Nashville, and the Nashville staff is already looking jam-packed. He's still an injury risk, so I think they'll be careful with him.

[pogokat]

i think mike bell will be the 2b in Brevard, with Alcides at SS and holmberg on the bench...i think Ozzie chavez will start in huntsville..

 

i don't think mike bell can play SS very well...ryan crew makes more sense..

[Mass Haas]

If Tony Festa was old at 25 for West Virginia last season, not sure how he looks there at 26-- but, as always, And That, you're willing to stick your neck out on the projections -- always good stuff to kick around and appreciate. Ryan Barba in Festa's spot...

 

Other thoughts -- Joe Valentine didn't choose to resign with the Brewers to set-up at AA; I really hope you're right and the Cuban, Yohannis Perez, can begin at AAA; Brevard's going to be fun to watch.

[dadofandrew]

I would think Narron would open at AA, with possibly Dillard returning to AA...have we heard any official word on him moving to the bullpen?

 

And Rottino will play nearly every day, so he should be listed as a starter somewhere.

[Team Canada]

RHP Khalid Ballouli

 

You're lucky you quit, or Brian'd fire you.

 

 

The Nashville rotation is pretty sweet, and if Inman jumps to Hunstville at some point that could be a good group to watch as well.

[colbyjack]

Awesome job as always Toby. I just can't see Alcides Escobar starting at AA. He really needs to repeat BC, as there's no reason to push the kid.

 

I mentioned this in the thread of your first projection, but I like all of the pitching staffs outside of West Virginia's. Unless there's a surprise among those listed or a surprise promotion and/or designation, they are going to have to out-score many of their opponents.

 

Huntsville on the other hand will likely be just the opposite.

[pogokat]

nate yoho is more like a player coach than anything else...i wouldnt be surprised to see him hang up the spikes and join the staff at some point during the season..

[Brew Man Dan]

When was the last time that a MLB club, the AAA and AA affilates all made the playoffs? Looks like the Brewers got a legit shot at it.

[And That]

i don't think mike bell can play SS very well...ryan crew makes more sense..

 

I've read that the Brewers think Bell has better tools to stick at SS than Crew does. Crew projects as a utility guy... if Bell can refine his defensive game, his bat will play at the position. Second base is an option for him, but I don't believe the Brewers will move him off of SS full time until they have to.

 

Ryan Barba in Festa's spot...

 

I'd give it a 1/3 chance that Festa gets promoted, a 1/3 chance he gets released and a 1/3 chance he sticks with WV. 26 is ridiculously old for A-ball, but when the next-best options right now are Ryan Barba, Hector Bernal and Brad Miller, you have to consider it.

 

Festa could easily slide into the Nate Yoho role of last year.

 

with possibly Dillard returning to AA...have we heard any official word on him moving to the bullpen?

 

Dillard has 163 good innings at AA, so it would be a curious move to send him back there. He'll likely keep getting starter innings in the minors, as that's the best way to groom pitchers for the next step. If he is moved to the bullpen next year in AAA, I'd have to guess it would be because Nashville already has so many options at starter (especially if CV doesn't make the big club).

 

And Rottino will play nearly every day, so he should be listed as a starter somewhere.

 

I think the playing time is implied. Do you want me to list at 3B instead of Braun? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I just can't see Alcides Escobar starting at AA. He really needs to repeat BC, as there's no reason to push the kid.

 

I'm torn on this, and it'll come down to how he does in spring training, IMO. They've already pushed him once, when they sent Alcides to the AFL last year, and they do seem to want to keep him with Iribarren (who has obviously earned a promotion). He hit .257 in a pitcher's league as a 19-year-old, which isn't too bad. His defense became more refined, too. On the other hand, he didn't get on base, missed valuable playing time due to injury, and never really got on any sort of a roll at the plate.

 

I really hope you're right and the Cuban, Yohannis Perez, can begin at AAA

 

Obviously, if Perez starts at AA, then Escobar starts at A+, and Chavez probably gets promoted to AAA. Perez' landing spot affects a number of people... I can't say my guess that he's with Nashville is anything more than a slightly educated guess.

[filthyfrog]

When was the last time that a MLB club, the AAA and AA affilates all made the playoffs? Looks like the Brewers got a legit shot at it.

 

If Toby is mostly right on the AA squad, I think it looks pretty much like a wasteland. While guys like Palmisano and Moss could rebound in their repeat seasons, and while Fermaint, Katin, and Iribarren should be at least decent, there will be a lot of goose eggs on the scoreboard. And a rotation that includes Parra, Jones, and Hinton would be full of 4 and 5 inning starts, and that's assuming Parra and Jones can stay healthy.

 

However, I do think Perez will start off in AA with Escobar repeating A+, which would probably improve the team in the short term. And there's always the chance that Inman and Gamel do for the '07 team what Gallardo and Braun did for the '06 team.

[filthyfrog]

Oh, and Toby, by projecting Nix in AAA, are you implying that he'll be put on waivers and clear them? I'd love to see that happen, but it seems unlikely to me.

[DHonks]

I also still think Inman might jump to AA. He might not benefit from dominating in A+ in the pitchers' dream yard. The only concern would be pitch counts, but they could have him on lower counts in AA than his peers, just as they've done with others.

[Herm]

I'm curious what you think of Luis Pena and what you think is the organization's view of him. Seemed that he was seen as an up and comer a couple of years ago, and he has an invitation to spring training with the Brewers this year, yet you have him pegged with a set up role in high A....

[And That]

Oh, and Toby, by projecting Nix in AAA, are you implying that he'll be put on waivers and clear them? I'd love to see that happen, but it seems unlikely to me.

 

I dunno, is anyone going to want to keep Nix on their big league roster after all his injuries and lack of production? If the Brewers lost him, it wouldn't be that big of a deal to me. He's not going to make the big league club with Mench, Jenkins and Clark still here. If we lose him, we still have Tydus Meadows to play in AAA, and Fermaint/Moss/Katin right behind him in AA.

 

I also still think Inman might jump to AA. He might not benefit from dominating in A+ in the pitchers' dream yard. The only concern would be pitch counts, but they could have him on lower counts in AA than his peers, just as they've done with others.

 

I agree, but many seem to think that pitch counts in AA are different than they are in A+. Inman already has the character to be a major league pitcher, and his stuff isn't very far behind. If he stayed healthy, he could dominate AA this year. However, he'll be lucky to get a half season there.

 

I'm curious what you think of Luis Pena and what you think is the organization's view of him.

 

Luis Pena is tough to predict - he's ultra talented and has a great pitcher's frame. However, he's injury prone and inconsistent. I could see him in AA no problem, and I could also see him starting the year on the Brevard DL. My placement of him in BC had more to do with a conservative projection than anything.

 

He has a lot of talent and the NRI may have more to do with keeping him in the organization the next few years than anything else. He's not going to sniff AAA this year unless he has a miracle year.

[bretsky07]

If Sarfate really has an option left, does he go back to AAA in your opinion? If so, who takes his spot on the big club? I'd like to see Corey Thurman get the long man job, myself.

 

Edit: Maybe there's not a spot open anyway. I forgot we signed Balfour to a major league contract recently.

[pogokat]

if sarfate goes back to the minors, it will be balfour/oxspring/spurling or ben hendrickson winning the long man spot...

 

honestly---i think sarfate's probably the best option, so i think he'll make the team...and i'm not just trying to bujtter dennis up..

[dadofandrew]

To be honest, if everyone is healthy, it makes a lot of sense to send Sarfate (or whoever else has options) down and keep someone who doesn't...until someone is ineffective or injured.

[And That]

In light of Sarfate's remaining option, there's about an 80-90% chance he's back in AAA to start the year.

[Crewin06]

I had a hard time finding Jeffress on the list. I am under the assumption he will start at West Virginia but couldn't find him on either A or A+ roster.

 

Also Isnt Gillespie at West Virginia a little low. I know next year will be his first profesional season but with the college training, production in rookie ball and age. I can't see him at anything lower than Brevard. I know its a little crowded there but Gillespie seems destined for the big club so I wouldn't see any reason to slow his progression down for the likes of Brantley and Cain.

 

Edited. I didn't realize how good of a season Cain had last year. But Brantley??

[bretsky07]

I saw a roster projection on the major league forum, and had some questions about more minor league type projections.

 

River and Closser are both doing pretty well this spring. If we lose them both, what is the catching situation going to be in Nashville? Rottino (if he isn't the 6th IF in Milwaukee)? Palmisano?

 

With Errecart moving to first and the team saying he and Gillespie are ahead of Ford and Brantley, what does that do in Brevard? An outfield of Cain, Gillespie, and Brantley, with Errecart playing first? Or do they want to keep Brantley in West Virginia to start the year?

 

Has Sarfate played himself back to AAA this spring? Has Villanueva played himself into the long role in Milwaukee, at the very least? If Villy goes to Milwaukee, who is behind Yo, Zach Jack, and Dillard on Nashville's rotation?

[dadofandrew]

Hopefully, either Closser or Rivera make it to AAA. If not, it'll be Rottino (if in N-ville) and another pickup...maybe the guy Closser/Rivera take the place of elsewhere.

[pogokat]

i think the implication is that fermain will repeat at A+, so it will be Cain/Gillespie/fermaint, with WV being Brantley/Ford/Chapman

[bretsky07]

Wow, that outfield is going to steal a lot of bases!