Kendall's numbers

[JET15]

I can't help but wonder what Doug sees in Kendall. I look at his numbers and he seems very up and down, up in 04, down in 05, up in 06, down in 07,... up in 08? We can only hope so.

 

My favorite stat these days is Win Shares Above Bench, and when you look at Kendall's last good year, 2006, his WSAB was right up there. Mauer was way ahead of the pack at 20 with a group of three behind him at 14 (McCann, Rodriguez & Posada).

 

Kendall was in the next group with a 12 WSAB. And the other encouraging thing was he got this number on a pretty even split between his batting and fielding. I know a lot of people are concerned with his arm.

 

So from a pure numbers perspective, maybe there is hope.

[Brian the Automator]

I can't help but wonder what Doug sees in Kendall. I look at his numbers and he seems very up and down, up in 04, down in 05, up in 06, down in 07,... up in 08? We can only hope so.

I think he sees a guy that can:

- call a good game

- technically throw runners out better than Estrada

- take pitches & take the walks that are given to him in the 8-hole

- work well with the coaching staff

 

From a pure OPS view, I'm sure it's a downgrade... but catcher is one of those positions where many will value defense & intangibles over pure offensive output. Dunno, I'm not crazy about the signing, but given what's out there, I suppose it's better than nothing.

[RoseBowlMtg]

I am excited to see him foul off pitches like he did against us last year for the Cubs. An 11 pitch AB where he grounds out to the second baseman moving the runner on second over to third making the first out will be so much better to watch imo. A bit of a stretch of a scenario but you get my point.

[rluzinski]

I am excited to see him foul off pitches like he did against us last year for the Cubs. An 11 pitch AB where he grounds out to the second baseman moving the runner on second over to third making the first out will be so much better to watch imo.

 

Unfortunately, in baseball, what's more fun to watch is often not what wins more games. Its a big problem with the sport, IMO.

[RoseBowlMtg]

IUnfortunately, in baseball, what's more fun to watch is often not what wins more games. Its a big problem with the sport, IMO.

 

rlu I don't get it. Are you saying the way Boston played working the count and spending a pitcher is fun to watch or just doesn't help to win games?

 

For ex is a one pitch ground out the same as a 9 pitch ground out? Let's see: If that happened thru 3 innings starting the 4th your pitcher would have thrown 9 pitches and my pitcher would have thrown 81.

 

 

So I guess we can agree that working a count does have value but are you saying so few people do it the stat is not worth looking at? Blowing out a bull pen the first game of a series is huge but rare for the Brewers and maybe with some better plate discipline through out we might see more this year.

[rluzinski]

For ex is a one pitch ground out the same as a 9 pitch ground out? Let's see: If that happened thru 3 innings starting the 4th your pitcher would have thrown 9 pitches and my pitcher would have thrown 81.

 

But both scenarios are completely unrealistic. In actuality the difference between the most and least patient batters is around 1 pitch per PA. If you replace Estrada with Kendall, you might be talking about 4 extra pitches per game. On the team level, while Boston led the league in P/PA, they had 3.95 P/PA vs. the AL average of 3.8. Assuming about 40 PA per game (the average is somewhere around there, IIRC), Boston saw about 6 more pitches game than the average team. That equates to maybe 4 more pitches and one less AB for a starter pitcher opposing them. The least patient team (Seattle) saw about 7 less pitches per game than the average team.

 

Does patience have value? Sure but it's pretty small.

[RoseBowlMtg]

rlu great info once again. I believe it is important to know when to work a count and when to jump on that first pitch. These stats looking at the end of the season can't tell the whole story. A great hitter sitting on dead red on the first pitch rips it while an average hitter might foul it off. The average hitter might get 6 pitches before grounding out while the stud saw one pitch for a double. Next time up the pitcher pitches around the stud and he gets walked on 5 pitches. The Brewers need more hitters that realize when a pitcher is not pitching to them so they can swing at only hittable pitches. In this scenario admittedly a more reasonable one, this hitter saw 6 pitches while an average hitter might have seen 10 but the stud hitter worked the pitcher the one time it made sense to. I hope to see more of that this year. Bottom line swinging at hittable pitches and working the count when they are pitching around you. Mike Maddux preaches throw strikes early so you don't have to later. Unfortunately too many Brewers don't realize other pitchers do that too.

[logan82]

Estrada did. I think he hit something like .386 on first pitches.

[TooLiveBrew]

The funny part about the Kendall question is that even if he puts up a .700 OPS constituted of .350 OBP + .350 SLG, it's more valuable than the .296/.403/.699 line that Estrada posted in 2007. OBP is always more valuable than SLG, and it especially is when you consider the Brewers' lineup & production.

 

Just fwiw, below are Bill James's projections for Kendall & Estrada in 2008 (keep in mind he has Estrada drawing 20 BBs, which appears to obviously be too many - and I'm not joking).

 

Estrada: .284/.319/.413/.732

Kendall: .275/.369/.335/.704

 

Again, if we pretend that's the production that actually occurs (imho you can drop Estrada's OBP roughly 10 points), even though Johnny puts up a better OPS, Kendall's is more valuable to this offense.

[Gopher74]

The funny part about the Kendall question is that even if he puts up a .700 OPS constituted of .350 OBP + .350 SLG, it's more valuable than the .296/.403/.699 line that Estrada posted in 2007. OBP is always more valuable than SLG, and it especially is when you consider the Brewers' lineup & production.

 

Just fwiw, below are Bill James's projections for Kendall & Estrada in 2008 (keep in mind he has Estrada drawing 20 BBs, which appears to obviously be too many - and I'm not joking).

 

Estrada: .284/.319/.413/.732

Kendall: .275/.369/.335/.704

 

Again, if we pretend that's the production that actually occurs (imho you can drop Estrada's OBP roughly 10 points), even though Johnny puts up a better OPS, Kendall's is more valuable to this offense.

That's also pretty optimistic for Kendall. I'd be thrilled with those numbers. Those numbers from the 8th spot, or even the 7th spot would be fantastic.

 

[logan82]

That looks like a little below career norms for Kendall. I don't think that looks to optomistic at all.

[Gopher74]

That looks like a little below career norms for Kendall. I don't think that looks to optomistic at all.

Yea, but career norms for 24 years old players and career norms for catchers in their mid 30's don't really hold a lot of weight with me. He was absolutely awful last year...like the worst everyday player in baseball save for one months with the Cubs.

 

I mean, he had two months in which his OPS didn't even hit .450(.401, .444), two months in which it didn't reach .550(.544, .513), one month in the 900's and then another in the mid .700's.

 

I absolutely pray you're right. If we could get that out of Jason Kendall, I think we're really going to establish ourselves as one of, if not the top offense in the NL next year with Rickie hopefully bouncing back, and then the two big sluggers at least approaching their great seasons, but I'm just not confident.

 

 

 

 

[logan82]

The guy had a horrible year last year. His stats are so far off his norm I think it there is a really good chance that he has a better year next year. I doubt he puts up stats as good as his career stats, but I don't think that a .340 OBP would be to surprising. That's better than all but 4 everyday players on our team. That makes him a good #2 hitter.

[And That]

I have faith that Kendall will put up something closer to his career norm next year, though really I'd be happy with .350/.350. I'd like to think he's a guy that wasn't effected by steroids, but I guess it's a possibility.

[Gopher74]

The guy had a horrible year last year. His stats are so far off his norm I think it there is a really good chance that he has a better year next year. I doubt he puts up stats as good as his career stats, but I don't think that a .340 OBP would be to surprising. That's better than all but 4 everyday players on our team. That makes him a good #2 hitter.

Which speaks to our problems with OBP last year rather than as an endorsement for Kendall.

 

Honestly though I'd expect Gross, Weeks, Prince, Braun, Hart to all beat that number by a significant margin this year, and then others to bounce back and be right around there. Hall, Hardy, and Counsell. And hopefully whoever we get to fill our remaining hole, but that's neither here nor there.

 

Anyway, I find it hard to believe that a scenario exists in which he wouldn't be an upgrade over Estrada, I just don't think he's going to be as big of one as has been suggested here

That said, if you could get Rolen or Beltre(who's has hit very well in the number 2 spot, and would likely benefit from hitting behind Weeks and in front of Braun and Prince as he's a big time fastball hitter) and Kendall could put up those numbers, I think we'd likely have a top 2-3 offense in the NL. Add to that the potential that our staff presents and it could be a charmed year in Milwaukee.

[logan82]

I don't think anybody has said that Kendall would be a huge upgrade over Estrada. Most think it will be a lateral move with a sacrafice in SLG for OBP and a better attitude.

 

Weeks, Fielder, Hart and Braun are the guys who had an OBP over .340 last year. Counsell is a part time player, Hardy has a career OBP of .321, Hall has only gone over .340 tiwce with the highest being .345, I think that a Gross/Dillon platoon could put up a better OBP over .340, but it isn't a given. Gross has a .351 OBP over the last 3 years, but has only been over .330 once. He only has a little over a season's worth of at bats. I think it is more likley that Kendall has a higher OBP than any of those players mentioned.

 

Edeted for grammer and spelling.

[Gopher74]

I don't think anybody has said that Kendall would be a huge upgrade over Estrada. Most think it will be a lateral move with a sacrafice in SLG for OBP and a better attitude.

 

Bill James did. If Kendall were to even approach those numbers, he'd be a giant upgrade. And everyone who agreed that Kendall would be somewhere near those numbers. They've all "said" in so many words that he'd be a big upgrade. I hope to god it's true. I just am a little concerned over his numbers last year save for one big month. Players do have down years though, so here's hoping he did.

Weeks, Fielder, Hart and Braun are the guys who had a better OBP over .340 last year. Counsell is a part time player, Hardy has a career OBP of .321, Hall has only gone over .340 tiwce with the highest being .345, I think that a Gross/Dillon platoon could put up a better OBP over .340, but it isn't a given. Gross has a .351 OBP over the last 3 years, but has only been over .330 once. He only has a little over a season's worth of at bats. I think it is more likley that Kendall has a higher OBP than any of thos players mentioned.

 

Right, I know who did last year. Those are obvious choices to repeat next year as well. Hall's had an OBP over .340 two of the last three years, and when he's going well, he's taking walks(relative to how he's not taking them when he's slumping as he never takes a lot of walks).

Hardy's career numbers are relative, but they only tell a small part of the story as he's been in the bigs for really two years worth of AB's. I mean, I know what their career numbers are. I'm making a prediction somewhat independent of that.

Gross I guess will be a platoon player as will Dillon who isn't going to maintain his ridiculous splits vs left handers from last year, but he should be solid.

 

I suppose it could be argued that it's more likely that Kendall will outproduce them, and he's certainly not a prototypical catcher, I just fear that in Kendall's case, as is often the case, one a catcher loses it, they lose it very quickly.

[logan82]

I wouldn't say that Kendall will outproduce them as I think his SLG will be low, but I think he will carry a higher OBP than most of them.

[Gopher74]

I wouldn't say that Kendall will outproduce them as I think his SLG will be low, but I think he will carry a higher OBP than most of them.

Right, by outproduce I meant OBP. Sorry, I should have clarified, but we were talking about OBP, so I just assumed that'd have come through. I can see how that was not clear.