Hall for Willits?

[TooLiveBrew]

Gwynn Jr. is nowhere near a .380-ish OBP. His skills are speed & D. I like the comp. btw. Rickie & Soriano. The thing that makes Rickie work (though I agree with you that I'd rather have him hitting elsewhere - 2nd or 5th, to be specific) is his high BB rate.

 

Soriano'd be better employed between slots 3-6 as well, but his low OBP makes him a puzzling choice as a leadoff hitter. So in short, I agree with you that neither guy is a perfect fit at leadoff, but Rickie can at least fulfill what a leadoff guy's supposed to do - get on base - with the power to boot.

 

I'd love for the Crew to (theoretically) add someone similar to Lofton, so he could lead off efficiently, and allow us to slide Rickie's bat into a spot in which it can really do some damage - like 2 or 5. Until then, I'll take comfort in knowing that we have the power of Soriano in the leadoff slot, but with OBP befitting the task.

 

I'll have to check out James's forecasts on Willits & Crawford, Reed. Those are two names that have gotten tossed around this offseason 'round these parts.

[hauser42]

his stats are showing that he is heading the other way right now.

 

This is where you don't have me convinced. Thanks for that bit from Heater; that's very interesting and new to me. I'm as ready as anyone to admit that his 2006 may well be the best year he posts, but I have yet to find these stats that have him pointed in the other direction. His walk rate will likely hover between 30-40% for his career, but with his slugging, it should be fine. He had a big down year in 2007, and though some may write this off as excuses, he really has decent reasons for why. One, the position change, and two, the injury.

 

He was at 31% last year after a 38% in 07 and 60% in 06, and 45% in 05. Hall is a bit of a free swinger and the last two years he has shown that.

 

You're getting your years mixed up here, and I'm not sure which stat you're referencing. Help? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I don't think there's been a level at which he's competed professionally that Hall hasn't displayed free-swinging-ness. I don't think it's accurate to look at two seasons and say that he shed his 'free-swinging' moniker/label. Even in 2006 he K'd a ridiculous amount. His BB/K rate in 2005 - 38%; 2006 - 39%; 2007 - 31%.

 

One thing that really stands out to me from 2007 is his HR/FB ratio. Perhaps this has something to do with the article you cited, but it looks to be more likely just luck. In '06, his HR/FB rate was 19.2%; in '07, 10.3%; '05, 12.2%. If you take a HR/FB rate around the mean btw. 10.3 & 19.2 - for example's sake, 15% - his HR total in 2007 would have been roughly 20. Keep in mind that Bill mentioned how his high-ankle sprain on his right (plant leg for hitting) leg really limited his power. His peripherals seem to corroborate that

 

From what I've encountered, HR/FB appears to be predicated largely on luck, and fluctuates as one then might expect. I'll put it to you like this - and please forgive the hyperbole, as it's just another example - but in 2004, A-Rod's HR/FB rate dipped along with his BB/K, both to some of the lowest levels of his career (like Hall). His HR total from 2004 is still the lowest of his post age-22 career. He hit 45 HR in 2005, and then his HR/FB rate dipped back down near 2004's in '06. His HR total was nearly as low (35). He hit 54 HR in 2007. Is there anything much more at play there than luck? I'm not comparing Hall's potential output to A-Rod's, but their fluctuations relative to their own careers are startlingly similar.

 

Fwiw, Bill James's 2008 forecast for Hall: .263/.328/.471/.800, 50/149 BB/K, 40 2Bs & 22 HR. That's a relatively safe estimate for him next year, and I'd be happy even with that.

I wrote down the calculations but did not put years down so thanks for the fix.

 

I agree with James stats that is what I see from Hall, and to me those are every day major league stats nothing to get crazy for. I have heard that Hall is an all star for the last two years and I dont see anything but a major league player. He has a great season two years ago and I dont see him coming close to that again.

[TooLiveBrew]

those are every day major league stats nothing to get crazy for.

Check out other production from CFers. If a guy is ( a bit) an .800 OPS guy, that's quite good for the position.

[hauser42]

those are every day major league stats nothing to get crazy for.

Check out other production from CFers. If a guy is ( a bit) an .800 OPS guy, that's quite good for the position.

 

A lot of the other guys in CF play a much better defense. Hall gave up a lot hits and runs last year by his play in the field to negate his stats. He is an average CF when you put the full game into it.

[Samurai Bucky]

The Angels' position in the Tejada sweepstakes may depend on how the arby goes with K-Rod and Colon. Would they be willing to trade for Hall and have him play at SS? I could see it happening.

 

Would Gary Matthews, Jr. be a good return player? He would obviously be more expensive (and I would probably want Willits due to age). It looks like Willits is the fifth outfielder now, so moving him for a Hall would seem to make some sense.

 

Could we also get Scott Shields and make him the closer? ;-)

[TooLiveBrew]

A lot of the other guys in CF play a much better defense. Hall gave up a lot hits and runs last year by his play in the field to negate his stats. He is an average CF when you put the full game into it.

 

In 2007, yes, I agree. But most other starting CF have played the OF for more than 'never,' though. I fully expect Hall to bounce back offensively in '08, and provide much improved defense.