Hall for Willits?

[Robideaux]

No rumor or anything, just a question. Would you trade Bill Hall straight up for Reggie Willits? Now that LAA picked up Hunter, they have glut of outfielders. They could potentially be interested in Hall as an infielder.

 

Willits, thus far in his major and minor league career, has been an on-base machine(~.400). Plus, although I haven't looked at any stats, I have got to imagine that he is better in CF than Hall. On the down side, Willits has Tony Gwynn Jr-esqe power. Hall could outhomer him by 30 next year (if Hall hits 30 HRs). That makes me question if Willits on-base is sustainable long term. I have to say, I wouldn't mind a fast guy who gets on-base 40% of the time at the top of the line-up (plus, we wouldn't be subjected to Kendall in the 2 hole).

 

Potential Lineup:

CF Willits

2B Weeks

3B Braun

1B Fielder

RF Hart

LF Unknown

SS Hardy

C Kendall

[splitterpfj]

No, I wouldn't do that. I like Hall's skills, I think he just had a bad year last year.

[MNBrew]

I'd think Willits, Figgins, or (if healthy) Rivera would fit in nicely in LF for the Crew. Figgins had a monster year and seems to be a pretty respectable OBP guy with very good speed.

 

I don't see how the Angels would want or at least need Hall necessarily, especially if they're serious about Cabrera & Tejada. But they must need something we have extra of.

 

I'm also not sure Hall's the guy I'd look to move in that deal unless we also took one of their relievers, which might not be so preposterous since they at least may want salaries to even out. (Not sure what Figgins makes, and Rivera's damaged goods, but Willits is surely cheaper and also 3 years younger.)

 

Good thought provoking question, Robideaux. (Also, just curious did you mean to spell it the same way as Billy Jo Robidoux?)

[Big Reed]

I'm not a big hall fan. it would save the brewers some money. The posters here who drool over OBP stats should love Willits. the other posters like myself who drool over stolen bases should also like Willits. i remember a stretch of games last year when the angels couldn't hit a home run to save their life. but they kept winning games by using their speed, defense and pitching. I like speed a lot more than I like power. I'd trade hall for Willits. I' m not sure the Angels would be that interested in Hall - especially if they acquire Cabrera. Despite his tremendous stats, I'm not sold that Hall is a great shortstop or third baseman. The Angels ' shortstop and third baseman of the future is Aybar and Wood. I'm not sure I'd want hall t o obstruct their path. Maybe he'd be a nice expensive insurance policy if neither prospect blooms as hyped.

 

for what it's worth, Willits played over 60 games in left last year and only 30 games in center. I see Willits as a cheaper version of figgins.

[MNBrew]

Then again, Hall & Willits could be involved in a deal maybe more easily if the right 3rd team were involved.

 

Brewers would get Willits (or Figgins or whomever).

3rd team would get Hall.

Angels would get a player from 3rd team.

 

That said, while I'm not as crazy about Billy Hall after last year, I'm thinking the Brewers would be better off trading from their depth/excesses than their young-ish, under-contract starting OF (meaning Hall -- Mench or Gross could still be had).

[Ennder]

I don't like Figgins, when he doesn't have a .391 BABIP like last year he is a .350 OBP player with little power and poor fielding. Willits is pretty interesting though and personally I think there is a good chance that Hunter is not an upgrade for them if he is costing Willits AB's.

[Tbadder]

I'm not a Hall fan because he's really nothing more than a platoon player against lefties. I'd love Willits but would need an additional pitcher for Hall (can't ignore that power).

[TooLiveBrew]

Hall's definitely not a platoon player. .791 OPS v. RHP in his 3-year splits. That's including his poor .740 from 2007, but especially in CF, that's not bad for a down year. To think that Hall's off year is one in which he posts roughly a .750 OPS v. RHP, as a CF, is awesome.

 

No way do I want to part with Hall right now. He's cheap, and set up for a bounce-back year. If Hall doesn't hit 25 HR next year, I'll be surprised. He still managed to accrue 35 doubles in 450ish ABs. I want him around when he gets back to form.

[Big Reed]

The stats below are Willit's real OBP stats. Ender, where do you get the idea that Willit is nothing more than a .350 OBP player? Surely, you can't base your comments using his minor league or major league stats. he did exactly last year at the major league level as what he accomplished in the minors. his OBP looks pretty consistant to me. This sounds more like your subjective opinion on Willits rather than using his actual stats. At least you were honest in stating that you don't like Willits. from the stats below, how can you arbitrarily say Willits is nothing more than a .350 OBP guy? Since you are always talking about OBP, I would think you'd like Willits. Admittedly, he has zero power. But how much power do you need in a lineup? Looking at his career, Willits skipped low A ball, and he split a season between AAA and MLB. he looks like a fast track type of player to me. Did I mention he's also fast?

 

2003 Pion .410 OBP

2004 Cal .374 OBp

2005 tex lg .377 OBP

2006 pcl ..448 OBp

2006 MLB .411 OBP

2007 MLB .391 OBp

 

Looking at Hall's stats, if I said he's nothing more than a super utilty guy and .250 hitter, people would be all over my case. but the truth is that hall is not exactly a great fielder, and his average has dipped the last couple of years. Is that a trend? i recall a famous GM saying it is better to trade a guy one year too early than a year too late. Now is the time to unload Hall.

[brettac1]

He was talking about Figgins.

 

Read his post:

 

I don't like Figgins, when he doesn't have a .391 BABIP like last year he is a .350 OBP player with little power and poor fielding.

[logan82]

Outside of a bad April and May, Hall played a solid CF. He was brought in late in games as a defensive replacement a few times even when there were better offensive options already in the lineup.

[hauser42]

I'm not a Bill Hall fan but I would not make this trade I think they could get a little more value for Hall.

 

The bounce back everyone is looking for in Hall is going to be another let done in my book. We have seen the best of Bill Hall and I think last year will be what we get from here on out. He might have an occasional spike in stats but he is not the hitter than some think he is.

[TooLiveBrew]

Based on what, hauser? I don't necessarily disagree with you but I'm curious to know what you mean about Hall as a hitter.

[Big Reed]

ok. i can understand him not liking figgins. I like Willits.

 

as for hall , there is nothing that says he'll bounce back either. he could get even worse. he could approach Andrew jones and Sexson type numbers if he keeps swinging for the fences. Whatever happened to the old philosophy of advancing the runner and putting the ball in play? the brewers are starting to look like the equivalent of a 3 point basketball team - live and die by the home run.

[hauser42]

Based on what, hauser? I don't necessarily disagree with you but I'm curious to know what you mean about Hall as a hitter.

 

I read an article from Heater magazine in 07 that showed he had the most Homeruns that barely made it over the fence. It showed stats on barely made it, surel made it, and well gone homeruns. Halls %s were heavy on the barely, he did make up for this with his doubles last year.For that reason I dont see him getting back to the 30 HR mark that some people think he will reach most years.

 

His batting eye reverted back to were it was previously. He was at 31% last year after a 38% in 07 and 60% in 06, and 45% in 05. Hall is a bit of a free swinger and the last two years he has shown that.

 

He is suppose to peak in the next coming years but his stats are showing that he is heading the other way right now. There will be blame in him moving to CF and for his injury but those dont explain how he has come back to being a free swinger like he was at the minors.

[TooLiveBrew]

his stats are showing that he is heading the other way right now.

 

This is where you don't have me convinced. Thanks for that bit from Heater; that's very interesting and new to me. I'm as ready as anyone to admit that his 2006 may well be the best year he posts, but I have yet to find these stats that have him pointed in the other direction. His walk rate will likely hover between 30-40% for his career, but with his slugging, it should be fine. He had a big down year in 2007, and though some may write this off as excuses, he really has decent reasons for why. One, the position change, and two, the injury.

 

He was at 31% last year after a 38% in 07 and 60% in 06, and 45% in 05. Hall is a bit of a free swinger and the last two years he has shown that.

 

You're getting your years mixed up here, and I'm not sure which stat you're referencing. Help? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I don't think there's been a level at which he's competed professionally that Hall hasn't displayed free-swinging-ness. I don't think it's accurate to look at two seasons and say that he shed his 'free-swinging' moniker/label. Even in 2006 he K'd a ridiculous amount. His BB/K rate in 2005 - 38%; 2006 - 39%; 2007 - 31%.

 

One thing that really stands out to me from 2007 is his HR/FB ratio. Perhaps this has something to do with the article you cited, but it looks to be more likely just luck. In '06, his HR/FB rate was 19.2%; in '07, 10.3%; '05, 12.2%. If you take a HR/FB rate around the mean btw. 10.3 & 19.2 - for example's sake, 15% - his HR total in 2007 would have been roughly 20. Keep in mind that Bill mentioned how his high-ankle sprain on his right (plant leg for hitting) leg really limited his power. His peripherals seem to corroborate that

 

From what I've encountered, HR/FB appears to be predicated largely on luck, and fluctuates as one then might expect. I'll put it to you like this - and please forgive the hyperbole, as it's just another example - but in 2004, A-Rod's HR/FB rate dipped along with his BB/K, both to some of the lowest levels of his career (like Hall). His HR total from 2004 is still the lowest of his post age-22 career. He hit 45 HR in 2005, and then his HR/FB rate dipped back down near 2004's in '06. His HR total was nearly as low (35). He hit 54 HR in 2007. Is there anything much more at play there than luck? I'm not comparing Hall's potential output to A-Rod's, but their fluctuations relative to their own careers are startlingly similar.

 

Fwiw, Bill James's 2008 forecast for Hall: .263/.328/.471/.800, 50/149 BB/K, 40 2Bs & 22 HR. That's a relatively safe estimate for him next year, and I'd be happy even with that.

[Big Reed]

I can agree with Bill james' predictions with the exception that i don't think Hall will have that many doubles. I see Hall hitting 25-35 doubles in 2008.

 

out of curiosity, what does James predict for Crawford and Andrew Jones? to include their runs scored, RBI and Sb totals? Does he predict Jones will bounce back?

 

it would be nice when comparing players if we used the same source for predictions of success /failure rather than our own biases. if you believe what james says about Hall for 2008, then you should also believe what he says about Crawford and Jones.

 

Does bill james have a free web site? or were those predictions taken from one of his books?

[TooLiveBrew]

Well, as far as the 2Bs, Reed, Hall posted 35 in 2007, in only 503 TPA's. I'd be surprised if he finished with fewer than 35 next year, unless his HR totals spike again.

 

Does bill james have a free web site? or were those predictions taken from one of his books?

 

Aha... Big Reed, you have the honor of stumbling across this just as I did, but a secondhand stumble. I'm happy to spread the joy. Fan Graphs is an awesome site, this we already knew. But those dastardly folks add in James's 2008 prognostications! The '08 forecasts aren't there for every player, as I'd imagine James has to limit himself at some point. Example - Mike Rivera, no... Tony Gwynn Jr, yes. Be sure to check out the Ryan Braun projections - optimistic much? But they still made/make me drool.

[Oldcity]

Whatever happened to the old philosophy of advancing the runner and putting the ball in play?

People realized it gives up outs and crushes a chance at a big inning?

 

[danzig6767]

ok. i can understand him not liking figgins. I like Willits.

 

as for hall , there is nothing that says he'll bounce back either. he could get even worse. he could approach Andrew jones and Sexson type numbers if he keeps swinging for the fences. Whatever happened to the old philosophy of advancing the runner and putting the ball in play? the brewers are starting to look like the equivalent of a 3 point basketball team - live and die by the home run.

The Brewers problem last year wasn't the offense, they were 5th in the NL in runs scored and they scored more runs than anyone in our division. They missed the playoffs because of their horrible defense, bullpen issues, and Ned Yost didn't help either. If you want to find a fault with the offense, it wasn't swinging for the fences, it was swinging to much in general. The Brewers need to take more walks.

[Oldcity]

Yep. If the Brewers took a decent amount of walks they'd have had a top-two offense in the NL. For all the power they had, finishing fifth in runs scored was actually pretty poor.

[ILuvDaBush]

Couldn't we just hang onto Billy and peddle him to the loser of the Miguel Tejada sweepstakes?

[TooLiveBrew]

If you're gonna move Hall, I agree that'd be better timing, ILDB. One wrinkle to that notion, though, is that Miggy's getting talked about more at 3B, rather than SS - not that Hall can't play 3B, but his value I'd guess is a tad lower as a 3B.

[Tbadder]

This team can't afford a guy like Hall. Their situational offense is just awful. Willits is exactly what the Crew need to be a more well rounded team, that can take a varied approach. Waiting for the power tap to come on doesn't always work. Now Hall is worth more than Willits because of said power, but that should net us a pitcher as well. A solid right-handed set-up guy who doesn't get injured and can log two innings at a time ocassionally. Does that describe anyone on the Angels? If not, then the deal probably isn't worth it.

[Big Reed]

toolivebrew :

 

that was a most enlightening web site.

 

I saw his projections for Braun. I think he may be just a tad optimistic.

 

I trust bill james' predictions a lot more than the casual fan. Casual fans usually have too much hope injected into their forecasts. James did predict Andrew jones would bounce back to hit .253 next year. That's believable. Does that mean Jones is worth a 6 year deal at $15 million a year? NO! he's not. His projections on Crawford and Willits were also believable. he projected Crawford to hit .299 with a couple of walks and Willits to hit .290. those numbers also seem to be in line with their career numbers.

 

In my ideal line-up, i would still love to have a hitter to bat lead-off that can get on base and that doesn't worry about hitting home runs. if the guy could get onbase at a .380+ OBP , steal 40 bases and score 100 runs , I could care less what his slugging % or OPS are. of the current brewers, the ones closest to that are weeks and gwynn. Unfortunately, I don't see Gwynn as an everyday player, and I don't see Weeks as a typical lead-off hitter despite his good OBP. I also don't believe Soriano should bat lead-off.