Why isn't there any heat on Melvin?

[TooLiveBrew]

We are now in year six of Melvin the GM, given all the talent Jack Z has provided Melvin and the increased payroll, i think it's fair to now ask for more than low 80's win seasons that are close but no cigar results.

 

True. 2008 is the first, and to this point, only year where I'd agree with this.

 

Seven years is a long time. If a GM can't produce a playoff berth in that amount of years, i'd have to move on regardless if on balance more moves he made worked out than not.

 

Again, we agree. I just think it's silly to talk about W-L record of a guy who took his first team to its only 3 postseasons in franchise history, and has his second on track to crack the playoffs for the first time in nearly 20 years.

[hauser42]

agree that in comparison to Taylor and many other GMs Doug Melvin has done a decent job with the Brewers, but he's hardly as good as many people think. Slightly worse than he thinks, and a hole hell of a lot worse than some other GMs. What he's done in 5 years is hardly impressive, especially when teams like the Tigers and Rockies shoot past the Brewers in performance while we wait year after year for the big breakout

 

 

Rockies got hot at the end of the year and road a wave into the World Series. What move did the Rockies do in the last two years that put them over the top? Maybe not trading Helton away. This team has not been all that good over the last couple of years.

 

Tigers waited till their young SPs got ready then they went out and took a gamble on Maggs and Kenny Rogers and those moves worked out for them. The move to get Casey really did not work out so I would like to see what their GM rally did to make that team better besides signing 2 vets. Detroit also has a good amount of cash and like the Brewers got a spike with a new stadium recently. By the way were was Detroit this year come playoff time?? Oh thats right they were right with the Brewers sitting at home.

[homer]

"hint: you are being spun when the GM comes up with an obscure stat to say how this player or that was really better than what you saw with your own eyes"

 

Which 'obscure' stats are you talking about? If he used outdated stats would that be better?

[gregmag]

There is quite a bit of criticism of Melvin on this board. After every trade there's a long, passionate thread with a lot of folks ripping the trade and a lot more dissecting it critically. I generally like Melvin, but I've ripped him for trades and draft picks more than once, and I get the sense that a bunch of people here fall into the same category. So David, while your analysis is smart as always, I really wish you wouldn't come off like you're one of a tiny minority of people here who has a brain and uses it. You aren't; you're one of a whole bunch of people who fit that description, and some of them (us, I guess) just happen to reach different conclusions than yours at times. Same goes for JohnBriggs and the self-congratulation for "seeing past the spin." Most of us recognize spin just as well as you do; some of us just don't always agree with you about what's ultimately true.

 

IMHO, Melvin has done a very impressive job of moving the Brewers from crap to contention. He has certainly made mistakes, and he doesn't deserve all the credit by a long shot, but plenty of people have tried and failed to do what he has done. Now, however, it's a different ballgame. Now it's about moving a team from mere contention to championship-caliber. That seems to me like a very distinctive challenge, and Melvin has to prove himself all over again. Losing Cordero and Linebrink doesn't bother me, given the insane contracts they got, but my opinion of Melvin going forward will turn heavily on his ability to build the pen over the next few months.

 

Greg.

[colbyjack]

Now it's about moving a team from mere contention to championship-caliber. That seems to me like a very distinctive challenge, and Melvin has to prove himself all over again. Losing Cordero and Linebrink doesn't bother me, given the insane contracts they got, but my opinion of Melvin going forward will turn heavily on his ability to build the pen over the next few months.

 

Well put Greg. I hate to make any one aspect of any person's job seem so ultimately crucial, but I do believe the bullpen construction this offseason could make or break Doug Melvin's job if it determines the fate of the Brewers during the 2008 season.

[RobertR]

Taylor was definitely an idiot. However...

 

I fail to see how Jose Hernandez was such a terrible signing.

I think the giving up the second round pick to sign Hernandez is what makes that deal really bad. The farm system was in such a low ebb at that point that giving up a draft pick for what was no more than a band aid was a terrible, awful, "I have no idea where I am in the success cycle" decision. It's somewhat mitigated by the 2001 draft being historically awful and it's certainly not a Hammonds like blunder, but it was a bad decision with no logic behind it. Heck, they could have waited a week or two if they really wanted Hernandez and wouldn't have had to surrender a draft pick.

 

Other than the Sexson trade and some innocuous deals like signing Stairs, it's really hard to find any positives to Taylor's regime with big league players. It's hard to imagine how the Cirillo, Valentin/Eldred, Hammonds, Burnitz, and EY deals could have turned out worse. Picking Lopes turned out to be a disaster too.

 

Getting back to the main point, I agree that Melvin has his weak points. #1 being falling in love with a scrap heap project and giving them an unnecessary multi-year deal instead of taking them year to year. #2 probably being not having a really good touch with relievers. A lack of emphasis of defense and perhaps a little too much reliance on getting an extra nugget/not just cutting his losses probably rounds things out. I'm not fond of the Davis and Linebrink deals. They weren't outright disasters, but the guys the Brewers got back didn't perform at the same level as the guys they shipped away. Considering how close the race was, the question of "Could Doug have done better?" is certainly relevant. And I think the answer to that is Yes. I think he still gets an above average grade for the year, but it's definitely less than an A.

 

Robert

[Fatter than Joey]

Well put Greg. I hate to make any one aspect of any person's job seem so ultimately crucial, but I do believe the bullpen construction this offseason could make or break Doug Melvin's job if it determines the fate of the Brewers during the 2008 season.

 

Yeah -- Greg has a great post -- Regardless of what he has done up to this point, I think the BP could be the last knot in the noose.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I liked Greg's post, too, but maybe for a different reason. There's always a tendency on message boards for posters to label others, and sometimes themselves, to put their opinions into boxes. There's a tendency to dismiss others as sheep who follow the crowd, ignore the nuances of their opinions, and cast oneself as the lone voice of reason.

 

Only the casual fans...

The pro-Melvin crowd...

The anti-Yost crowd...

The negative nellies...

 

The original post, and several others, suggested that Melvin is 'a sacred cow' on bf.net. Even a casual reading here will reveal that to be sacred cow pucky. (Someone should dig up the Linebrink thread, for example.) While you might find some posts of unreserved praise, that's hardly the rule.

 

It's hard to make a .500 team into a 90-win team, much harder than going from 70 wins to 80, and it remains to be seen whether Melvin is up to the task with this outfit. But he's done it before, which is more than a lot of GMs can say. I'm less happy with his last batch of moves than I have been in the past, and there's a few GMs I'd rather have, but on balance I'm happier with Melvin in charge than I would be with a number of other GMs.

[Fatter than Joey]

Even a casual reading here will reveal that to be sacred cow pucky

 

I made this statement -- and I think you are right. A lot has changed in the last 12 months (probably since the Estrada deal) -- If you would have made a statement about Melvin getting heat in 2006 though -- you would have gotten tarred and feathered.

 

I guess I am surprised that more people are starting to watch the "Melvin clock", but you are certainly correct that group isn't getting any smaller.

[rluzinski]

To label most brewerfan.neters as "pro-Melvin" is just a lazy way to try and win an argument. Sure, there are those who are at the extremes (in both directions) but I don't think that represents the majority of posters here. If it did, we wouldn't have 15 page threads on each move Melvin makes, arguing its merit. We'd have nothing to argue about.

 

Melvin has made several recent moves that received as much criticism as praise on this board (Davis/Estrada trade and the Linebrink acquisition being the two big ones). Both times he acquired Counsell, plenty of fans complained. Heck, there's always someone complaining no matter what move Melvin makes. If a fan is objectively assessing every move his team's GM makes, he's bound to not agree with at least a handful of them, even if he thinks his overall performance has been acceptable.

[Thurston Fluff]

Fan websites are notoriously littered with homers who support any move by their beloved team. In fact I do believe brewer goggles were free at fleet farm last week with any purchase over $1. While there are a few dissenters at Brewerfan, the vast majority blindly believe everything Melvin does is golden.

 

There are as many cynics who blindly hate everything the team does as there are homers on any site. Since there is no more reason to believe everything is bad than everything is good this sort of crosses the line from cynic to condecending. I do believe the sky is falling glasses sale at Menards more than makes up for the Brewer goggles sale at Fleet Farm.

 

 

Sadly, for those who were unhappy about the Sexson trade to AZ, the biggest issue was that it doesn't help the Brewers long-term and we are seeing clearly that those concerns were valid. But we got so many players.......yeah......

 

 

Even a casual glance shows how off the mark this is. Considering it's been 4 years since the trade I'm not even sure what you mean by long term so I'll go with only players whose contributions to the club are ongoing.

Lyle Overbay turned into Bush and Zach Jackson. Bush is and will continue to be a contributor. Zach Jack hasn't even begun his major league career. I think it's a little early to say neither of them will contribute for some time into the future. Cappy had an off year but it's hard to imagine he won't help the team going forward either as a trading chip or as a memeber of the team next year. Maybe wait until the players the Brewers got are done playing before making statements like that. Of course if your arguement is that Sexson and his huge contract for a sub .700 OPS from last year would have been a better option than those we have now via that trade then perhaps your judgement of talent isn't as good as the person you're critisizing.

 

Ah FtJ that's too simple a trap for Dougie to fall into. He's smart enough to make sure his 'good friend' Nedly is on board when the ship is going down and the sharks begin to circle. Nedly will be in the water faster than you can say NASCAR and Dougie will hop off the other side and swim for shore.

 

Ahh yea the conspiracy theory. Melvin is way more interested in setting up someone to take the blame than he is in actually doing something to make the team better. It's just amazing how someone would look at the Brewers and say the GM is so sure he's going to fail that he's already looking for sacrificail lambs to save his job. Doug was so sure that he couldn't put together a bullpen that he decided it's better to keep a substandard manager around to take the heat instead of finding someone who could do the job better. One doesn't have to be a blind optimist to see the error of this line of thinking. In fact one would have to be an amazingly blind cyinic to think that way.

 

Now it's about moving a team from mere contention to championship-caliber. That seems to me like a very distinctive challenge, and Melvin has to prove himself all over again. Losing Cordero and Linebrink doesn't bother me, given the insane contracts they got, but my opinion of Melvin going forward will turn heavily on his ability to build the pen over the next few months.

 

Like others I think this is right on. Both for Melvin and Ned. I do like both of them very much and believe they will succeed. That doesn't mean if they fail I'd just say fine let's get them next year. Barring a large number of catastophic injuries next year they should be a 90 win club. If not then it's time to find people who can make them one.

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah, the reaction to Melvin's big trades was 80/20 or so negative for most of his big ones. As I commented at the time, perhaps the reason for the lack of overt success of the Davis/Linebrink trades are because they were 50/50 on the board instead of everyone vehemently opposing them. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[aracko]

I am not calling for Melvins head because I believe that this team is a couple of bench bats and a couple of Bullpen arms away from contending for the World Championship next year. He put the pieces in place. Hopefully he spends the money on some veteran BP arm and some bats that will be effective off the bench. I really believe that we are just 3-4 players away from the promised land. Maybe 1-2 of these players are allready on the roster but are just being misplaced in their roles.

 

Ned Yost is my least favorite Brewer ever but he gets better every week. All thats left to do is search between the couch cusions and under the table, and behind the TV for those last few pieces and then the puzzle will be complete.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's just amazing how someone would look at the Brewers and say the GM is so sure he's going to fail that he's already looking for sacrificail lambs to save his job.

No, Melvin is smart - he's the GM. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif It's not that he's "sure he's going to fail," it's that if he'd made a coaching change prior to 2008, and the team didn't meet expectations, he'd be gone. Now, he can at least buy himself some more time (at worst) in 2008 if things go poorly by canning Ned. It's just a smart way to position oneself, not really a conspiracy theory imho.

[Thurston Fluff]

But if he was really that worried about his job security he'd do everything possible to make sure it never got to that point. If he felt Yost wasn't capable yet retained him because that was his last line of defense he wouldn't be smart. That would be akin to dieing of thirst so you could save water. Honestly I don't think next year is make or break for Melvin regardless of the outcome next year. Not that there wouldn't be some amount of reason for it mind you. I just don't think the powers that be would want to appear to be going in another direction yet again. Not when so many pieces are in place and the fans expect more immediate returns on the team.