Suppan's value in this FA Market

[ILuvDaBush]

I don't mean to ask the question of whether it was a good signing or not, as it is much to early to exact his overall value to our club. Moreover, what I mean to ask is what would last year's top FA signing be privy to in THIS offseason, of overfilling coffers, huge demand, and no supply. Imagine a pitcher coming off a huge postseason, where he played quite the able #2 for the eventual WS Champs, securing an NLCS MVP trophy and eating a lot of innings. Does anyone think there could be some team out there that might be so enamored with the guy as to offer him 5/75? And then on a team that eventually fell just short of postseason contention, he leads the team in W's, a team with a former 18-game winner, a Golden Boy of epic proportions, and the player who carried Francisco Liriano's "K-King of the Minors" Crown before being promoted and is viewed as a verified ace (sorry for the mouthful). What could the gent expect this offseason, if he were a FA?

[dadofandrew]

Add about $1-2M per onto what Silva gets, which I would estimate to be 4y/$44-50M.

[ILuvDaBush]

Silva never pitched as well, and isn't coming off of a postseason of dominance. Zito got $126mil for a dominant season three years prior because he was the top available FA.

[DHonks]

I'd think Suppan would get another $5 million over the course of the deal. He was a workhorse last year that had some bad luck. But, as expected, he logged 200 IP. The only surprise was his relatively large increase in hits allowed.

[TerraceReserved]

Was it any surprise that he allowed a lot more hits? He went from having an above average defense on the Cards to a terrible defense with us. Our bad defense resulted in a load more of base hits for all of our pitchers.

[ILuvDaBush]

Well would anyone argue that barring Andy Pettitte going all Hessian (for those Revolutionary War buffs) and offering up his services to the highest bidder, that Jeff Suppan would be the top available Starting Pitcher on the Free Agency market? Bartolo could be given some looks but the Soup Man has no health risk or conditioning risk. I just think that if he were on the market, there would be an absolute bidding war. And that's not to say that I advocate trading him, because the trade market is nowhere near the FA market, but he could make a pretty penny.

[dadofandrew]

All pitchers have a substantial health risk. I agree though, those saying Suppan would be very overpaid at the end of his deal look very foolish.

[gregmag]

Can you really say anyone "look very foolish" based on a conjecture about what will happen over the next three years? Isn't it quite conceivable that a pitcher with Suppan's level of ability could tank within the next year or two? It certainly has happened before to pitchers his age.

 

More broadly, is it ever really necessary, or appropriate, in a friendly baseball discussion to claim that those who disagree with you "look very foolish"? What value, exactly, does that insult add to the discussion?

 

Greg.

[dadofandrew]

Greg, I don't think it's an insult at all, many were afraid of backloading his deal because he would be impossible to trade at $12M. That could still happen if he is injured, of course, but with the rise in salaries, especially pitching, no one other than a rebuilder or a tiny market would hesitate to add a $12M pitcher that could help them win. Heck, Cordero might be a bargain in a couple years, as long as he's healthy.

 

I felt Howry and Eyre were well overpaid when they signed, and now they are barely more than half-price compared to Linebrink. Right now, the risk is injury (or falling apart, I guess), not cost in '09 or '10.

[rluzinski]

Can you really say anyone "look very foolish" based on a conjecture about what will happen over the next three years?

 

If Suppan has a 5.0+ ERA in 2009 and 2010, he'll simply explain that the Brewers paid was market value. Never mind if he was actually worth market value. Just follow the leader, apparently.

[ILuvDaBush]

That could still happen if he is injured, of course, but with the rise in salaries, especially pitching, no one other than a rebuilder or a tiny market would hesitate to add a $12M pitcher that could help them win.

Or a rebuilding franchise like Pittsburgh....

[JoeHova]

All pitchers have a substantial health risk. I agree though, those saying Suppan would be very overpaid at the end of his deal look very foolish.

 

What? I see russ and greg already pointed out the fact that it's too early to say this with any kind of certainty, but Suppan's xFIP this year was 4.85. The average pitcher ERA this year (park adjusted for MP) was 4.50. Starters ERA's are obviously higher, but I find it hard to believe that a guy who was worth maybe 2.5 wins above replacement this year and who has always been on the brink of losing his effectiveness is some kind of great deal. If he loses any effectiveness over the next 3 years, the contract will be bad for the Brewers. As it stands now, it's fine, but I still think the deal was a poor use of resources for a team like the Brewers.