Cordero to Reds; 4 years, $46 million

[don1481]

Moss is on pace for a record setting year and is the most dominant football player in the league. We didn't do ok there. Packers have done well despite but who knows how good we would of been with Moss. I guarantee you it wouldn't be worse. I'm still "irate" about that.

This is a big deal. Our bullpen is easily the worst in baseball right now. I don't see us having any chance at even competing for the playoffs with Turnbow, Mota, or McClung closing. I sure hope Melvin has a good plan because alot needs to be done. Melvin has been laying alot of eggs lately.

 

 

1. I highly doubt that Moss has the season in GB that he's having in NE. He's surrounded by a bunch of veterans and players who aren't afraid to "push back" if he gets out of line. The Packers are the youngest team in the league (even with Brett Favre) and have a ton of players that could have easily picked up his bad attitude from his days with OAK/MIN. No thank you.

2. CoCo obviously showed that every thing that he was saying was just lip service - he never really had any intention of coming back to MIL.

3. I'm going to guess that there's going to be a trade to fill the closer's role. Again, I'm going to push for Chad Cordero.

4. I know the key word is "right now," but the season opener is still some time away. It'll be fine. Arms will be found.

 

if the team's next closer is indeed on the current roster, I hope it's Carlos Villanueva. He proved his worth in the 'pen last year, and his numbers so far show that he's pretty dang good the first time through the batting order.

I certainly hope that this isn't the case. Villanueva has proven himself to be an effective middle-of-the-rotation starter. IMO Villanueva > Bush > Capuano > Vargas in the rotation. I'd rather have Vargas pitch the Brewers out of jams from the bullpen. Wait - doesn't he also pitch them into jams...?

[Fatter than Joey]

I think the reason we all are a bit stunned is the things CoCo stated about liking Milw. and wanting to be here.

 

I like Seattle and sincerely want to be there, and I have the chance to work/live there but I chose to live in Wisc.

 

in this case it was very similar.

 

Sure -- but it was 4 million guaranteed dollars that goes into the pro-Cincy column -- while similar not insignificant.

 

Technically, it was 3 million over 5 years or about 5% or about $600k per year...

 

I am not sure why you would include the option years in a "technical" statement. I suspect the guaranteed money

has more value. I don't think it is prudent to weigh option dollars as an equal to guaranteed dollars

 

to go to the Reds, a divisional rival no less.

 

The Reds money spends just the same as the Brewers money. The fact that the Reds are the highest bidder is just dumb luck.

 

5% raise just doesn't seem justifiable to me.

 

I am assuming 5% doesn't equate to 600K to you. 600K probably goes a long way to helping his family -- Maybe he

puts 600K into helping kids in Santo Domingo or maybe he buys 600K bottles of Stadium Sauce and takes baths in it.

In any case I find it hard to call him out for declining $600K-$1M

 

I think Francisco misled the Milwaukee fans and was all about going to the highest bidder

 

Perhaps, maybe he genuinely thought/hoped Milw. would be he highest bidder.

 

I understand it sucks to see the temporary state of our BP. I just don't think we need to call out his character.

[don1481]

I understand it sucks to see the temporary state of our BP. I just don't think we need to call out his character.

 

I think a lot of it is that people are frustrated that we were on the short end of this stick. Based on the exchange that Doug described with the agent:

 

Before negotiations concluded, Melvin said he asked Cordero's agent, Bean Stringfellow, if his $42 million offer was "within $1 million or $2 million" of the highest bid. He said Stringfellow indicated the top offer was higher than that, so Melvin pulled out.

Which is telling because the agent took it to mean "$1 or 2 million" of the overall package, rather than saying "yeah, you're $1 million/year short." I'm sure Doug would have at least considered had he known he was $1 million/year away from securing him. Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but it sounds to me that the agent took the "for-sure way out" of Milwaukee rather than being upfront with what the top offer was.

[Gormans sideburns]

IMO it looks as if Cordero didn't really care to be in Milwaukee any longer for whatever reason it may be (team, community, city, ???). You can't tell me the Cincinnati Reds have a better upside or future than the Brewers??? Come on. This shows that $$$$ is what matters to him and not winning.

[Brian the Automator]

My question stands...would you leave a job you are very happy with (alledgedly) to go to a competitor, relocate, etc. for a 5-10% raise? I for one would not, and maybe I'm in the minority.

When you're talking about relocating, it's a different situation between a baseball player, whose primary residence is usually not in the city they play in, and us. It's not like his family has to pull up stakes or something. And I'm not sure what your salary is, but a 5-10% raise when you're talking about multi-millions dollars is a big part of setting up your children and your children's children for life.

 

[valpocrewsader]

Doug has needed to address the bullpen every offseason since 2005 and has sat on his hands every time. I'm not holding my breath. Our bullpen at the end of last season had Cordero, Linebrink, and King on it ... those are horses I envision being on a playoff team. Our current 'pen is a joke, Doug would have to add four quality arms to make it better than 2007 -- no way that's happening. I guess that wins-per-dollar title will still probably be ours, though....

[Fatter than Joey]

I think this quote is pretty telling. There's no way a player who wants to come back to his current team and has a higher offer elsewhere doesn't come back to his team and say, 'hey, we've got an offer that's a million per higher- would you be willing to match that?'......... unless, of course, he's not actually interested in returning to said team. It's not like they were light-years apart.

 

Yes. I mentioned earlier that there are things about Milw. Cordero may not have liked. Perhaps he doesn't like Yost/Maddux,

maybe he likes Weathers better than Turnbow. In either case I would expect that Cordero isn't going to piss in the pool.

 

We give Melvin a lot of leeway to say one thing and then later do the other (Estrada), I don't know why we would

treat Cordero's words any differently, or give it less/more weight.

[sveumrules]

if opening day were tomorrow our staff would probably look like this...

sheets
yoga
villy
soup
cappy

long relief parra
middle relief bush
middle relief vargas
set up wise
set up shouse
closer turnbow
garbageman/winklsesas mota

that's three quality backend roation arms in the pen. lots of teams are looking for one number five starter and we've got four. i'd imagine at this point you'll see vargas/tgj moved for a bullpen arm and one more maybe brought in via free agency. if you get a good offer for one of bush/cappy i'd consider it as well, though it's probably ideal (especially given sheets's injury issues) to keep at least 7 capable starters in the fold.

[recte44]

Whoever said Vargas should get a crack at closing might be onto something.

[Fatter than Joey]

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but it sounds to me that the agent took the "for-sure way out" of Milwaukee rather than being upfront with what the top offer was.

 

You certainly could be right. I just don't know how you give one side of a public negotiation more veracity than the other.

 

This shows that $$$$ is what matters to him and not winning.

 

Money matters to everyone -- and I am not sure the Brewers are making moves that scream "winning baseball" at this point.

[recte44]

As i've said in other threads, I have no problem with letting Cordero walk. This is too much money to pay for a closer not named Rivera or Papelbon.

 

We'll find someone else, Melvin always has. I think we have a ton of in house candidates. Turnbow could do it, we know this. Vargas, in my opinion, would be a great candidate. Villanueva is a good candidate if the Brewers want to go in that direction with him. Bush could be a candidate. McClung could be the next Turnbow (the good version) with the right guidance. He looked pretty good in his stint with us, and I feel like there was no real reason to acquire him last season other than protecting us against the loss of Coco. Maybe McClung was Melvin's guy all along.

[DHonks]

why? Vargas can't throw strikes. Can't miss bats. Can't keep us in games

[recte44]

Vargas had 107 K's in 134 1/3 innings. That's one of the better rates on the club. Given a shorter time in ballgames, pitchers often throw harder. Gain a couple MPH in velocity that rate will go up closer to 1K per IP. I'd say he has the ability to miss bats.

 

With 11 wins, he kept us in games. His main problem was endurance. That's solved by moving to a short relief role. I also recall several situations with runners on base when he seemed to kick into another level of "clutch".

 

Maybe I'm wrong, I've been known to be a lot of the time. Vargas just seems like a guy I wouldn't mind seeing get a chance at this.

 

That being said, I think McClung is probably the organization's choice if they don't make a trade.

[jason21nl]

why? Vargas can't throw strikes. Can't miss bats. Can't keep us in games

if vargas is even considered our closer, I think I will cry. I don't like the idea of Turnbow going back to our closer either. When he is on, he is down right nasty. When he is off, forget about it. I can't remember but wasn't he really bad on back to back days? If he is going to close, he is going to have to pitch a lot on back to back days. Like some has said, its still early and our roster isn't set yet, so I'm not going to panic just yet. But so far our team is worse right now than it was last year.

 

[DHonks]

Yuck, if it's McClung or Vargas, I'd be VERY worried. I'd rather have Bush, Tbow, Wise, or Shouse closing than those two ineffective pitchers. Vargas struggled several times to get through the first inning...now we want him to close?

[Fatter than Joey]

Turnbow could do it, we know this.

 

Whoa -- He has been very unreliable in any sort of pressure situation the last 2 years. I don't see this as a given at all.

 

McClung could be the next Turnbow (the good version) with the right guidance.

 

I agree that McClung could be the next Turnbow, I think we would disagree on whether it would be a good thing.

 

I feel like there was no real reason to acquire him last season other than protecting us against the loss of Coco. Maybe McClung was Melvin's guy all along.

 

No. McClung was what they got after dumping Balfour -- rather than just DFA'ing Balfour. By all counts -- stats and scouts -- McClung

is a thoroughly crappy pitcher.

[splitterpfj]

OK, I believe losing Cordero is a big deal, because it has left the Brewers with a hole to fill at the moment. That matters, because now the Brewers will have to give up young players to fill the spot, or perhaps overpay a suspect free agent - I never like that.

Now then....calm down people. The Brewers did not just lose their cleanup hitter, their number one starter, or the face of the franchise. The Brewers have lost their closer, which is clearly the most overrated position of the current era.

This is because people value closers based on saves now, and the save is a ridiculous, pre-fabricated statistic. Your guy got the last three outs, perhaps with a 3-run lead and no one on base when he entered the game - this is not a spectacular effort.

I went back through the 2000 season and looked at saves vs blown saves for all Brewers closers. For those of you who think it should be a huge money position, the list includes Bob Wickman, Curtis Leskanic, Mike DeJean, Dan Kolb, Derrick Turnbow, and Francisco Cordero. Outside of Cordero, none of these players had significant success closing prior to their days in Milwaukee, and all of these men inherited the role because the prior closer failed, or was traded. You do not see a 45 million dollar acquistion among these names.

The prior group, from Wickman through Turnbow, had 229 save opportunities between 2000 and 2006. Cordero had 69 save opportunities in his time here.

The group converted 195 saves, or 85%. Cordero converted 60 saves, or 87%.

Mr Cordero converted a whopping 2% more of his save opps than the prior list of cast-offs and plug-ins.

The sad fact (or perhaps beneficial for the Brewers in this case) is that relievers are now paid based on saves. The obvious truth is, relief pitchers should be paid based on their ability to get the tough outs. Mr Melvin, you may have dodged a bullet here, do not overpay for a guy with a fat saves total, those guys can be sculpted time and again. Go find me someone who can strand two inherited runners in the 7th or 8th innings - the guy who gets the ball to the closer often works much harder than the guy who is on the mound for the final out.

Go spend 4 million apiece on two guys who can get outs in the 7th and 8th, your next closer will put up huge saves, cash out when he can, and get you more draft picks. Unless you're talking about a guy like Fingers, Rivera, or Papelbon, who can get the other team's best hitters out with runners on base, do not give the guy the big contract!

[don1481]

Whoever said Vargas should get a crack at closing might be onto something.

 

I was being facetious; which is why I followed it with the commentary about how Vargas also pitches the Brewers into jams. It'd be like Bob Wickman all over again! Wonderful times for all!

[Bernie Crewer]

"When you're talking about relocating, it's a different situation between a baseball player, whose primary residence is usually not in the city they play in, and us. It's not like his family has to pull up stakes or something."

 

Good point Brian, and I guess I had not weighed that for a ballplayer. A lot less of the equation than us agreed.

 

" And I'm not sure what your salary is, but a 5-10% raise when you're talking about multi-millions dollars is a big part of setting up your children and your children's children for life."

 

I guess that $42 million from the Brewers would've only paid for milk, groceries, and gas while the other $4m sets up his children and his children's children? I politely disagree, as I think a good accountant can make $42 guaranteed go just about as far as $46, and the $42 was supposedly to be in the place he wanted to be, was comfortable, and had success. Also, reading into Melvin's comments (referred to earlier) that Bean Stringfellow did not allow the Crew to make a counter to the Reds deal it seems Melvin quite possibly would've gone a bit higher which would've further minimalized what I viewed as a small difference. I'm not saying $600k per year and $4m is nothing to sneeze at, but in the context of what was communicated by Coco and what transpired is what is upsetting and has left a sour taste with me personally. I think Melvin's comments portray his frustration as well. The one about getting the most for the next FA closer's and the fact that Stringfellow did not come back to them tell me that Melvin felt a bit misled as well.

 

I am admittedly a tad bitter, and that probably clouds my view a bit. It's just a tough pill to swallow presently with what we appear to know about the situation.

[pebadger]

I think it's funny that some people are treating $4 million like it's Monopoly money to these guys. If you've been paying attention at all over the past ten years, you know it just ain't so. $4 million is four MILLION dollars. You can break it won into percentages of a contract and weigh it against anything you want in terms of locale, teammates, managers, etc. It's still four MILLION dollars.

 

If losing Cordero means we get to keep one more out of Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Braun, or Fielder, I'd personally drive CoCo to Cinci at my own expense.

[aracko]

I also said Vargas but I am not kidding. There is nobody on this roster that pitches so well with runners on base. He shows over and over again that he can get out of Jams. I think that until you give the guy a chance, you shouldnt put the idea down. Vargas, A.K.A. Magic Man, as a closer really is the answer.

[hawing]

Hopefully we can aquire Chad Cordero, so I won't have completely wasted my $5.

 

That's the spirit, brewdude! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I'm not quite over the sting of this transaction yet. "Nothing I can do about it" - yeah, right. But had the Brewers lured CoCo back in with their published offer, I'd have been apprehensive about the four year commitment, which seems excessive for that position.

 

Signing CoCo would not have guaranteed success. Not signing him does not guarantee failure. Time to move on.

 

Except when the Reds next play in Milwaukee, we should all plan to bring cloth bags marked with a dollar sign (fill them up with whatever - peanuts, brat wrappers, $5 player tees - whatever will make the bags look plump and full of cash), and silently hold them up en masse when their big money closer takes the field.

[shelmark]

I suggested that Vargas be considered; I don't think that is as ridiculous as some would suggest. No one knows how he would respond in that role, which is probably why it won't ever happen. If we were in rebuilding mode he might get a shot, but Melvin can't seriously go into what should be a playoff contending year with Vargas- no one would buy it. I have a hunch Gagne and Percival's agents are on speed dial about now.

[recte44]

Of all the FA options, I only want Percival.

[RU Rah Rah]

The scrap heap will work decently, I think. I'm not entirely sold on the Turnbow idea, though. His psyche is just a little too rickety.