Note from BA on Braun

[dixieflatline]

I hate starting a new thread for something this small but none of the other threads on teh first page seemed to make sense. Anyway, BA talked to a scout about Braun who had this to say:

 

Scout?s Take No. 1: on Brewers third baseman Ryan Braun: ?Braun has had trouble throwing the ball in the area code of first base, but the bat is lethal. He?s still prone to above-average stuff in, but if you miss your spot, it?s not coming back. I still think he?s going to be a destructive middle-of-the-order guy as a corner outfielder?and not a third baseman.?

 

From the free BA blog. Nothing earth shattering same stuff we have heard before but another person who thinks he will end up in the outfield.

[DHonks]

Well, many good SS/3b came to the big leagues and made a lot of errors initially.

 

Braun played SS in college, and will learn to play a good 3b. He's got all the tools, he's not Antone Williamson after all. The only way Braun moves to the OF at this point is if Gamel becomes a stud, and I'm not expecting that

[foamboy1]

This will be an interesting season for Gamel (not to get off topic). He's still young if I recall....like 20 years old or so.

[homer]

Gamel is 21. He'll be 22 in late July.

[UeckerAddict]

Well, many good SS/3b came to the big leagues and made a lot of errors initially.

 

See: Robin Yount

First full year: 44 errors

[dadofandrew]

About the only question left with Braun is whether or not he'll be our 3B or our LF in 2007. There's little doubt he'll be up, barring injury.

[And That]

See: Robin Yount

First full year: 44 errors

 

Yount was 19, Braun is 23.

 

And Gamel has the same problems Braun does. It would be great if one of them could stick there, but the odds aren't strongly in favor of it.

[UeckerAddict]

Yount was 19, Braun is 23.

 

Okay. Yount at age 23= 30 errors.

[And That]

Yount at age 23= 30 errors.

 

Actually, 25 errors.

 

If you really want to be precise, an 18 year old Yount played in 107 games and had 364 PA. That's likely in the range of what Braun will get this year. Yount's rookie year: 19 errors.

 

But that's not even really the point. Two different players, two different positions, 30+ years between them. Some infielders have defensive trouble early in their careers, others don't. Many people are just not convinced Braun has the ability to play 3B regularly.

[homer]

Quote:

---

Many people are just not convinced Braun has the ability to play 3B regularly.

---

 

And that seems to be just about every talent evaluator in baseball except those with the Brewers organization.

[And That]

And that seems to be just about every talent evaluator in baseball except those with the Brewers organization.

 

Well, they are a terribly run organization. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[UeckerAddict]

Actually, 25 errors.

 

If you really want to be precise, an 18 year old Yount played in 107 games and had 364 PA. That's likely in the range of what Braun will get this year. Yount's rookie year: 19 errors.

 

You're right, 25. The season he turned 23 (September) he had 30.

 

For the 44 errors, I did say his first full season. I don't really consider 107 games a full season.

 

I wasn't really comparing the two. I was simply concurring to the earlier point that many young players on the left side of the infield have fielding problems. I just listed the first one that came to mind. Can Braun play third? It's yet to be seen, but I believe with all his talent, the inability to throw the ball across the diamond must be a mental problem. I think it's worth trying to solve that problem, as we need a third baseman. Not an outfielder.

[colbyjack]

And Gamel has the same problems Braun does. It would be great if one of them could stick there, but the odds aren't strongly in favor of it.

 

Everyone in the Brewers organization is dead-set on Braun sticking at 3B, and Gamel is three years away. Gamel has more than enough time to make the necessary adjustments, and Braun has the trust of the organization. I would say the odds are pretty good that one of them sticks at 3B long-term, as I don't think Hall would have been moved permanently to the OF if the organization thought otherwise.

 

And that seems to be just about every talent evaluator in baseball except those with the Brewers organization.

 

One thing that bugs me about BA's comments on Braun's is that they seem to be coming from the same AL scout each and every time. The comment really hasn't changed that much over the past year or two, and maybe that is indeed because scouts are seeing the same thing.

 

Or maybe it is because BA keeps asking the same scout his opinion on Braun and whether or not he's improved (defensively).

 

As for everyone else's opinion on Braun's defense, whose opinion have we really heard from first-hand? I would guess every other scouting publication, online or print, has never seen Braun play first-hand, and are simply repeating the same things they have heard through BA.

 

I know pogo has seen Braun play in person and believes Braun can stick at 3B. I have seen Braun play on TV several times during his junior year at Miami and I saw nothing that would lead me to believe he would have to be moved at some point in time (in fact I felt he should have been tried at SS to begin his career). We have heard from a few other observers from WV two years ago and at Huntsville last year that pretty much said the exact same thing.

 

The only reason I was all in favor of moving Braun to LF was to get his bat in the lineup more quickly. Since that isn't an option anymore, I think it is best to prepare yourselves with the idea that Braun is the team's 3B of at least the immediate future.

[qrk10000]

And that seems to be just about every talent evaluator in baseball except those with the Brewers organization.

 

Many people in baseball felt that Rickie Weeks would not be able to cut it defensively at second base and should be moved to center field. And for half of a season, they were right. However, he finished strong and now many of those same people believe he has the tools to be a fine defensive second baseman.

 

I believe that Ryan Braun will follow in his footsteps. He'll probably struggle for a year or two but eventually his raw athleticism and help from the Brewers coaching staff will help him turn the corner. He may not be a gold glover, but he should develop into a competent third baseman. Fans and experts alike just need to give a chance.

 

Defensive ability is rarely what gets these kids signed and to the majors. From day one they are pushed to show off what they can do with their bat and whatever they contribute with the glove is normally secondary or a bonus. There are rare exceptions when you have a shortstop that is absolutely stunning in the field, but that truly is an exception.

 

I believe the reason for this is that defense can be taught while pure hitting ability is something you either have or you don't. Don't get me wrong, players can always tweak their stance or swing, but that is where it ends. That is why it is so hard to turn strikeout prone guys like Jenkins and Branyan and Weeks into players that can draw walks. It is just not whom they are.

 

Hitting is what makes these players millions and separates them from those of us on church league and bar league baseball teams. I think Braun has the potential to be a great offensive force in the majors and with a little time and coaching, will have an adequate glove to go with it. Hopefully by 2008 he will have a chance to do that with the Brewers.

[And That]

Patrick, I don't think anyone is saying Braun can't play 3B. I have no doubt in my mind he has the ability to stick there, and play there well. Ryan has a boatload of raw physical talent, much like Rickie Weeks or Robin Yount.

 

However, there is a disconnect between his ability and his production. His ability to throw accurately to first base is obviously not where it should be. The Brewers saw that first band in major league camp. Whether he sticks at third or not will depend on whether the footwork that is messing him up gets into his head or not. The footwork could well be fixed given time, but like a bad habit, if it gets in his head, there's a chance he just won't be able to do it.

 

The Brewers are not in a position where they can wait on Braun to get it figured out over the next few years. They need his bat now, not whenever he figures it out defensively. And they can't afford him defensively right now.

 

He might figure it out, he might not. But he's clearly figured out the hitting aspect of his game, and IMO the Brewers would have been wise to get him on the field at a position he could adequately play right now to take advantage of that. That didn't happen, and now they have to gamble on his potential ability not to let his throwing problems get the best of him.

 

As for Gamel, I heard that the Brewers were already contemplating moving him to the OF. I hope they don't, but he has a lot of throwing work to do, too.

[bork]

I thought I remember hearing that Gamel didn't have very good range at 3B. I thought that was the bigger issue with him sticking at 3B.

[SoCalBrewfan]

IMO the Brewers would have been wise to get him on the field at a position he could adequately play right now to take advantage of that. That didn't happen, and now they have to gamble on his potential ability not to let his throwing problems get the best of him.

 

I disagree. Braun as a 3B is worth much more to the org than Braun as a LF, and it's worth investing some time for that potential return. If they stuck him in LF this year, particularly if he hits, that is for all intents and purposes an irreversible change...he's unlikely to ever be a 3B. On the other hand, the move to the OF, should it become necessary, is typically believed to be an easier transition. I don't even see that it really weakens the team in the short term to have Braun working on his 3B defense in AAA...they have a glut of outfielders for 2007 anyway. As noted in many discussions, the arby and free-agent implication of Braun in a part-time major league role are very undesirable.

 

That all assumes Hall in CF, of course...at one point it seemed that a possible configuration would be Hall at third, Braun in CF.

[endaround]

The problem the Brewers created by moving Hall is that they now have a hole at 3B. If Hall stayed at 3B or split time at center for a year, Braun's bat wouldn't be an issue right now since Braun vs Gross/Graffy platoon isn't the same as Braun vs Graffy/Counsell platoon. This meant a full year to see where Braun can play.

[And That]

That all assumes Hall in CF, of course...at one point it seemed that a possible configuration would be Hall at third, Braun in CF.

 

Exactly, and that's where Braun's problem defending third became exacerbated. If Hall had just been shifted over to third, Braun could have played CF or RF (with Hart in CF). Braun has a very good arm, and throwing mechanics aren't nearly as big of a problem in the OF. Braun could be an excellent defensive CF. The Brewers decided to make things more difficult on themselves by making Hall a CF when they already had three of them (Gross and Hart, plus Clark) on the roster.

[hauser42]

The problem the Brewers created by moving Hall is that they now have a hole at 3B. If Hall stayed at 3B or split time at center for a year, Braun's bat wouldn't be an issue right now since Braun vs Gross/Graffy platoon isn't the same as Braun vs Graffy/Counsell platoon. This meant a full year to see where Braun can play.

 

How does this help at all? Hall would be moving around and not in one spot, something Hall wanted. I agree that Gross/Graffy platoon would be better.

 

I have no issue if Braun ends up in the OF, I believe he has a plus bat what ever the spot is. Brewers can use a plus bat no matter what spot they fit in.

[endaround]

Who said Hall wanted it? And if so stick him at 3B fulltime and let Gross play CF fulltime to see if he can hit LH pitching at a Jenkins type level.

[Team Canada]

Who said Hall wanted it?

 

Hall, for one.

[colbyjack]

I hear what you're saying Toby, and I agree with most to all of your points. Earlier this offseason, I agreed that if anyone should have been moved to the OF (when Hall was being considered for LF when the team was still actively pursuing other CF options), it should have been Braun. I agree, his bat is ready, and his bat is needed.

 

I was responding to your comment in which you said the odds are against one of Braun or Gamel sticking at 3B. With the team clearly committed to Braun sticking at third, I think the odds are in Braun's favor of sticking at 3B, and while I agree that Gamel may have to move sooner rather than later, that move would be predicated more by Braun's presence at third than Gamel's inability to stay there long-term.

[pogokat]

Gamel's defensive problems are more deep seeded than Braun's...Braun has footwork issues...Gamel has trouble fielding the ball...braun is quick and athletic...Gamel is not slow, but he doesn't compare to braun in reflexes...Gamel won't stick at 3b...I suspect they'll keep him there as long as possible, but he looks like an outfielder...

 

Braun will figure it out...And Patrick nailed it: It's just one scouts mantra being repeated endlessly. it works like this:

 

1. Writer gets an assignment to write on ryan braun

2. writer determines that he is writing about the 3b, not the rp

3. he looks at braun's stats and sees a future star

4. he tries to find an angle for his article

5. he reads scouting reports from previous articles

6. he writes the article about braun's defensive issue

 

i know he has problems on defense. but i just dont believe that every one of the people talking about his problems really knows anything about them.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yount's first full year was actually 1974 when he was 18, and he made 19 errors in 107 games. He didn't spend a day in the minors that year.

 

The next year, he had problems defensively as a 19 year old, and thus the 44 errors. He never came close to that total again.

 

Two things for you younger posters to keep in mind though:

 

1. The scoring was definitely tougher in those days.

 

2. Strikeouts were far less common especially from that Brewer staff. The numbers are staggering. In 1975 the Brewers as a team struck out 643 batters. Compare that to 2006 when Brewer pitchers fanned 1,145. That's over 500 more outs on balls put in play, hence a lot more chances for fielders.

 

I'd say Yount's total of 44 is more comparable to around 30 in today's game.