Estrada Traded to the Mets for Guillermo Mota

[endaround]

Apparently all of that was unfounded hate. Except for the part where Melvin ended up shipping Estrada out of town post haste.

[endaround]

Walk is as good as a hit....at least that's what my little league coach told me.

That's only when the bases are loaded in a tie game in the last inning.

 

Or any single inning when no one is on base

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I am sure you heard the dislike for Estrada. Or read this site at all. Do you not remember that?

 

Ok, be a tad more specific. I hadn't heard any public outcry to sign Jason Kendall.

[DrWood]

Walk is as good as a hit....at least that's what my little league coach told me.

That's only when the bases are loaded in a tie game in the last inning.

 

Or any single inning when no one is on base

 

 

not really, since a hit can be a double, triple, or hr, and there are seldom "four-base walks" even with a wild little league pitcher.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd point toward the 2007 Colorado Rockies v. the 2007 Milwaukee Brewers as an example of why OBP is more valuable than SLG. It's not more valuable to the point that it's ridiculous, but OBP is indeed more important.

[danzig6767]

Given the dearth of decent catchers in baseball, Estrada is probably better than the hate he gets here, but speaking for myself, the guy simply got on my nerves quite a bit and i can't help but be glad he's gone. The first pitch hacking, double plays where he jogged to first, and his overall demeanor grated on me.

[TheCrew07]

I'm fine with this deal.

I was on record many times over the course of the season as being of the opinion that Estrada called a crappy game. I don't think Miller called all that great of a game either. I've never seen so many base hits and walks given up in a season when batters were 1-2 and 0-2, it's my biggest pet peave so obviousy Estrada irked me. I will say this for Estrada though, he does play the game fearlessly aggresssive, which I think is a good thing. However, that's about the only positive thing I can manage at this time.

Mota? Whatever, get enough arms, throw em at the wall, see what sticks... Melvin has stockpiled a ton of plus arms, hopefully someone will step up out of that mess.

Kendall... I'll take better performances out of the pitching staff and tolerate his poor OPS. If the pitching will perform better in the coming year, then you don't need to score as many runs and so on. I always thought he called a good game, so I'm okay with this pickup as well at this time.

I'm through page 7 right now so I don't know if anyone has brought this up, but it's pretty obvious to me that some of starting pitching is going to the pen, so I'm not overly concerned about the pen yet, but I reserve the right to get cranky about it at a later time.

[LouisEly]

So here it is. It has happened and now all people can do is complain about how we traded him for nothing and his replacement is not very good. Well you cannot have it both ways. Make up your mind and live with it now. As bad as he was, it was the best we were going to see and now we have downgraded the position. Well at least Kendall will take more pitches, which apparently make some happy. He may hit 40 points lower but he will take more pitches. Great. But this is what the public asked for so I am not surprised it happened. But I am pissed he is gone and our team has gotten worse in this area. O and Kendall also can't throw anyone out so we have to listen to all that again.

 

That's what I've been saying. If you are going to complain about Estrada and say how bad he was, then tell us 1) who is better and B) what would it cost for the Brewers to acquire him. I'll buy the argument that the trade was to rid the team of a clubhouse cancer at all costs even if it meant a downgrade; but I will not buy any argument that Kendall was/is statistically better in any category and that the trade was meant to upgrade. Because all things taken into consideration, they did not upgrade.

 

Yea! Stupid OBP! Always having runners on base! He may hit 40 points lower? So you're forecasting a .240 year from Kendall? Even with that, his OBP will likely be equal to or better than Estrada.

 

This would be a good argument, except that last year Estrada's OBP was .296 and Kendall's was .301. It was essentially equal to Estrada, at the cost of a much lower SLG. I would hardly call Kendall's .301 OBP "always having runners on base"; over the course of 500 plate appearances in a season (a lot for a catcher) it means being on base twice more than Estrada.

[TooLiveBrew]

It was essentially equal to Estrada, at the cost of a much lower SLG.

 

In looking at 2007 for both Estrada & Kendall, which season line looks like it's most in line with career norms - and which one looks strangely out of whack? Not just in terms of 'was it a good or bad year', but if it was a bad year, does it seem to be just simple decline by the player? Kendall's 2007 line didn't match any sort of pattern(s) from his career. I understand a player will get worse as he ages, but not likely in such an odd fashion.

 

Estrada, on the other hand, had a pretty average to below average season for his career, and could hardly get on base 30% of the time. I'll bank on Kendall falling more in line with career norms/patterns than Estrada suddenly breaking out of his. The rough projection of .270/.340/.350+ for Kendall seems very reasonable to me, and while we sacrifice a bit in SLG, we gain the more valuable, and more necessary with our current team, OBP. Sure, Kendall's wasn't great in '07, but as I said, I'd be surprised if that didn't change in 2008 - just because the way in which he dipped was so odd.

[RobertR]

Baseball Think Factory has a ZIPs projection of 5.06 ERA for Mota in Milwaukee. And, frankly, the fact that Mota apparently can't go more than 1 inning effectively doesn't fill me with much confidence. Wasn't that one of the big problems with the bullpen that noone could eat innings, even in blowouts? Have they learned nothing from the past here?

And, I think part of my reaction is hangover from the Linebrink deal. I simply don't have that much confidence in this scouting staff regarding relief pitchers.

Robert

[ClosetBrewerFan]

While I was quite upset about obtaining Mota at first, I am now beginning to have second thoughts. Let me give you some numbers:

 

WHIP K/9 K/BB AVG OBP SLG OPS

1.32 6.40 2.00 .253 .319 .424 .742

1.37 7.13 2.61 .264 .320 .427 .745

1.45 7.21 2.53 .285 .336 .435 .769

1.54 5.04 2.00 .303 .351 .457 .808

Those are the 2007 stats for Linebrink, Mota, Wise, and Spurling (for comparison sakes). One stat that I rarely see people use is OPS against for a pitcher. To me it is the best was to compare pitchers, and is much better than ERA (especially for a relief pitcher). If you compare Linebrink and Mota's numbers, they are amazingly similar.

 

I am not crazy about Mota's salary, but it is only a 1 year deal. If the Brewers go after a free agent relief pitcher, they are likely going to have to offer a 3 or 4 year deal. That is just way too long for a reliever, since they are very inconsistent.

 

Like I said, I'm starting to warm up to the trade. I just hope Melvin has a lot more changes planned for the bullpen.

[Fatter than Joey]

If you compare Linebrink and Mota's numbers, they are amazingly similar.

 

I am not sure that is a good thing -- Using your OPS suggestion -- Linebrink, was 43rd of 49 in the NL with

pitchers with 60 IP (relievers). Mota is not that far from Matt Wise either -- and he was really bad last year.

[logan82]

Wasn't Miller Suppan's personal catcher for at least the last month of the season?

 

Also, I think it was brought up during the year that Estrada was out there without a cup. No that is crazy.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

And, frankly, the fact that Mota apparently can't go more than 1 inning effectively doesn't fill me with much confidence. Wasn't that one of the big problems with the bullpen that noone could eat innings, even in blowouts?

Unfortunately, Melvin specifically mentioned his ability to go more than one inning as one of the main reasons the club was interested in him.

[PeaveyFury]

From Ken Rosenthal re: Mota:

The Brewers, however, were encouraged by the way Mota threw in September, reaching 96 mph. Brewers scout Tom McNamara, recently hired from the Padres, saw Mota pitch while preparing for a possible Mets-Padres matchup in the postseason. Maybe something will come out of his work

 

Just passing that along....