N.L. MVP thread: Rollins Wins

[Thurston Fluff]

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gifIt was probably the same writer that gave Alfonso Soriano a third place vote.

Now taking bets on which city that voter came from. I'm guessing St Louis.

[patrickgpe]

What do you think the odds are that the 8th place vote for Prince was a Chicago writer?

 

that or one of the fish hacks from colorado or philly trying to sabotage prince's total

[hawing]

Wow, the Rockies miss on both ROY and MVP. I wonder what the indignation level is like there.

[endaround]

If Utley doesn't get into the Hall of Fame because "he never got an MVP" I'm going to kill somebody....

[Oldcity]

Ha. If Utley plays five more years there's no way he doesn't make the HOF. Sandberg just got in...

[JohnBriggs12]

Rollins is good and he plays a premium position, but he had the 4th best offensive season on his own team. He scored a lot of runs because the other 3 guys, Utley, Howard, and Rowand hit behind him.

 

Holliday deserved the award. Sure, he played in Coors, but he was a force down the stretch, driving in 40 runs in his last 34 games.

[Tbadder]

Yeah, what am I missing? (Seriously) I thought Holliday was the obvious choice, with Prince a close 2nd.

[homer]

JB,

How can you talk about Rollins inflated run numbers due to the guys around in him in the lineup and then mention Holliday's RBIs without mentioning the guys in front of him getting on base? Its two sides of the same coin.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

Holliday's SLG on the road was .485.. his OPS on the road was .860, while Rollins' was .859 on the road. So on the road, they're basically the same hitter and Rollins plays a much more important defensive position.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I wonder what the indignation level is like there.

 

Mile high, I'll bet.

[gregmag]

I too think the right guy won it. A very good fielding shortstop with that kind of bat has tremendous value. I think a lot more infielders should have won MVPs over the years, and I think this result represents a smart analysis by the voters (although reasonable minds can obviously differ about how to assess value). Holliday, although a terrific hitter, has much less defensive value and substantially inflated numbers. I agree with the Utley love as well, but he missed substantial time, and I think that appropriately figures into MVP voting.

 

Prince is absolutely amazing. To do what he's done at his age . . . we're very lucky we get to see him every game.

 

Greg.

[Thurston Fluff]

Rollins plays a very good shortstop has 41 stolen bases to go along with his 30 homeruns and lead the league in triples. Holiday had a whopping 6 more homeruns in an offensive position to go along with his league lead in doubles. All things considered they had very similar offensive production yet Rollins played a more important role on defense. That to me is the differance between the two.

[Brian the Automator]

I would have actually given it to Hanley Ramirez.

[DrWood]

Among NL SS,

Rollins is the third-best leadoff hitter (Reyes and Ramirez).

Among Phillies,

Rollins is, at-best, the third most productive hitter (Howard and Utley).

 

Third will be first.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I think a lot more infielders should have won MVPs over the years, and I think this result represents a smart analysis by the voters (although reasonable minds can obviously differ about how to assess value).

 

I would love to believe that. I think that the MVP is more about the narrative for the writers...is this guy a key cog in a playoff team? (Many voters are very explicit in differentiating between MVP and 'player of the year.') For Rollins, the narriative includes the position he plays, the quality of his glove, and the perception of 'catalyst' role on the offense. However, a lot of it is also the off-the-field narrative..."Rollins promises division crown, delivers as Mets collapse."

 

And you know what? For all that I'm a stats guy at times, the narrative is sometimes more compelling. I no longer find compelling the point-by-point analysis in which it is shown that Wright is 0.12 wins ahead of Utley, based on win shares or WARP3 or whatever. Nor the snarky threads on primer in which the BBWA is lambasted for its stupidity and its expense accounts, and the fact that somebody had Marmol on their ballot. Have I changed over the years?

 

To me, you could make a good case for Utley, except that he was hurt. You could make a good case for Wright, or Fielder, but you know that the collapses of those two teams killed their chances. Holliday's stretch run is not as compelling to me as it might be to some, given his position and environment. Any of those guys belong in the discussion, though, with Rollins and Pujols and Peavey and Webb added. Maybe Reyes, too (agreeing with greg's stipulation about middle infielders).

 

Wait...somebody had Marmol on the ballot? Doofus.

[endaround]

Looking at VORP:

 

1) Ramirez 89.5

2) Wright 81.1

3) C. Jones 76.0

4) Holliday 75.0

5) Pujols 73.4

6) Cabrera 71.4

7) Fielder 69.1

8) Utley 68.8

9) Rollins 66.1

10) Braun 57.2

 

Given Ramirez really isn't a SS, I'd have gone Wright 1st. Rollins as you can see is just not a good choice.

[RU Rah Rah]

Holliday and Rollins were very similar on the road, but Holliday's OPS at home was significantly better (1.157 vs. .892). I know that Holliday benefited from Coors, but let's not forget that Rollins got to play in the bandbox known as Citizen's Bank Park.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Looking at VORP:

 

Rollins as you can see is just not a good choice.

 

Isn't VORP purely a measure of offense? So Rollins certainly vaults ahead of, say, Fielder and Cabrera. Braun is out entirely. Ramirez falls back quite a bit, as you note. Defense and position matter. I also think the Peavey would be in the top ten, and maybe Webb as well.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

I saw somewhere else that Holliday had WARP3 of 12.1, Rollins 11.7

 

http://between-thelines.blogspot.com/2007/10/tall-tale-of-two-mvp-candidates.html

[MoneyballMan]

Rollins is good and he plays a premium position, but he had the 4th best offensive season on his own team. He scored a lot of runs because the other 3 guys, Utley, Howard, and Rowand hit behind him.

 

Holliday deserved the award. Sure, he played in Coors, but he was a force down the stretch, driving in 40 runs in his last 34 games.

I agree completely. I'm shocked he didn't win.

[Team Canada]

Sure, he played in Coors, but he was a force down the stretch, driving in 40 runs in his last 34 games.

 

This is an old argument, but I'm not sure I'd base MVP merits on how well your teammates get on base.

 

[RoseBowlMtg]

Park Factors didn't benefit Holliday over Rollins:

 

2007: HR's, runs, hits, 2B, 3B, BB

PHil: 1.418,1.034,.988,.912,.861,.918

Col: 1.218,1.160,1.12,1.256,1.513,.943

 

Philly's total: 6.131

Colorado's: 7.21

 

Let's take away triples:

Philly: 5.27

Colo: 5.697

 

Do park factors really matter .652 difference for a guy who had 6 triples?

 

Park Factors for walks?

 

Philly: .918 total: 4.352

Col: .943 total: 4.754

 

Philly was a easier hitting HR park and Colorado was a much easier hitting triple park? Holliday had 36 HR's and 6 triples! The triple factor shouldn't factor as much imo.

[Blunt36]

Does anyone know if there is anywhere you can see how the actual ballots broke down? I realize seeing ballots and who placed them is probably too much to ask (although that would be awesome), but I don't think them making the ballot breakdowns available (without writers' names)would be out of line. Is there any way to see this info, or is it secret?

 

Besides seeing who put Marmol on their ballot, I'd be very interested in who had Tulowitski thrid and specifically, which of the top 3 guys they had him ahead of (I've got a good guess). Also, I'd be curious to see who the 7 players more valuable than Prince are in one writer's opinion.

[splitterpfj]

I don't know if there's a place to see who voted what, but the overall votes are broken down here -

 

link

[TheBrewer]

yea not sure how Soriano gets a 3rd place vote, while not much nonetheless, same with Marmol seriously thats a big joke.. I think it came out about right, early on Holliday and Fielder were the favorites to win it, either or, but then Rollins entered the picture. I think all three were valueable, but at the same time are they looking at pure individual stats, or how much that player meant to the team. Because Fielder really rose above and became the captain the leader etc of the Brewers etc.. that would be my only beef sorta with that.. and my other minor thing is, obviously Rollins has far superior defense compared to Hanley Ramirez, but Hanley you could make a case out performed Rollins on the offensive side of the game, or at the very least equal, with that said, I think Hanley should've received more votes not necessarly 1st or anything like that, but he should've been up a bit more with his totals.. obviously a play-off team or a team in contention merits more votes