Re-signing Ben Sheets

[GenoSeligPrieb]

First of all, diggr, welcome. Haven't seen much of your material yet. Keep posting!

 

Anyway, you also have to factor in the notion that, in any contract, the Brewers would seek monetary protection for injured players, via insurance policies. I would imagine that an injury-prone pitcher like Sheets would cost more, in terms of premiums, but they'd be covered for most of, if not all, of Sheets's deal, if he gets hurt during the next contract, so it's not as of the Brewers would be hamstrung from getting a replacement.

 

He IS Ben Sheets, after all. So that means he better not even be watering any houseplants this winter, because that ficus might have some sharp leaves....

[splitterpfj]

I think a potential deal involving Sheets will have to wait until Johan Santana is either traded, or not traded. The two NY teams will no doubt have interest in Sheets, but of course they'd rather get Johan, so they'll pursue that first.

 

If there's anything to the Braves rumor, perhaps they'll go ahead without waiting on Johan, because I don't see them giving Santana the new contract he wants anyway - maybe - but I'd bet against it.

 

Once Johan is settled, I think the Brewers will be in great shape if they choose to move Sheets, somebody will be left out, and that somebody will still have their prospects to deal. For this same reason, I hope the Angels land Miguel Cabrera, I think the Dodgers might take an interest in Sheets, and I like a lot of their young players.

[endaround]

Geno is the only person in the world who thinks the Brewers are lacking a #3 hitter

[trwi7]

Geno is the only person in the world who thinks the Brewers are lacking a #3 hitter

 

Not really. I think Brian Brown is a bust.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[JJHardy7]

4 yrs 65-70 million?

 

You are talking 17.5 mil/ year for a guy that hasnt pitched close to a full season in 3 years. I think Ben Sheets would take 4/48 very seriously, given his injury history and the unknowns of pitching, he could pitch this whole year blow out his elbow in August and get nothing. For a guy to get 48 million now extended/guaranteed is nothing to blink at. The risk alone isn't worth taking for a pitcher IMO to make that plunge at the extra few million per when it could all go down the toilet with one wrong move. Especially for someone like Ben and his recent injury history. 4/48 you shake hands with DM as quickly as possible and focus on baseball for the rest of his career.

I'd consider doing the 4 for 48 million. If Sheets doesn't want that, then stay healthy in 2008. It would be typical of Sheets to have the season of his life in a contract year. Does that bother anyone else? Just because he may perform well in 2008 doesn't mean he's going to keep himself in shape. If Sheets cared about the Brewers, he'd show up in better shape and take care of himself. I see no reason to give a guy $18 million a year who can't stay in shape. What are the excuses for the injuries? I think we're past the bad luck stage. It's a lack of conditioning IMO and this has been said by Brewers' minor leaguers when Sheets was coming up. I really think we are overvaluing Sheets on this board in terms of trades. What team wants to give up a bunch of good prospects or MLB guys for Sheets injury history? If there's any team that wants to do that, make the deal and then let me sell them some swamp land in Florida.

[endaround]

After all, injured pitchers always stay that way. I mean look at how the Beckett deal screwed over the Sox!

[splitterpfj]

Yes, and look at how the Beckett deal screwed over the Marlins!

[JJHardy7]

I'm guessing Sheets' value with other clubs is about 1/2 of Beckett's. I know we all read rumors and see things with Sheets involved, but what does it take to get him? I honestly think Sheets isn't even in the top 5 players on the Brewers roster in terms of what teams would trade for him RIGHT NOW...if I'm wrong -- great. Trade him. We are putting way too much value on Sheets.

 

I'm sure other teams will ignore his injuries...

[Weirdos19]

I'm guessing Sheets' value with other clubs is about 1/2 of Beckett's. I know we all read rumors and see things with Sheets involved, but what does it take to get him? I honestly think Sheets isn't even in the top 5 players on the Brewers roster in terms of what teams would trade for him RIGHT NOW...if I'm wrong -- great. Trade him. We are putting way too much value on Sheets.

 

I'm sure other teams will ignore his injuries...

My trade value rankings:

 

1. Braun

2. Prince

3. Gallardo

4. Hart

5. Weeks

6. Sheets

7. Hardy

8. CV

9. LaPorta

10. Hall

[logan82]

The talk about trading Sheets is coming up because everybody knows he is going to get more than we are going to be willing to pay him on the open market next year when he is a free agent and he is in the last year of his contract.

[Diggr14]

First of all, diggr, welcome. Haven't seen much of your material yet. Keep posting!

 

Anyway, you also have to factor in the notion that, in any contract, the Brewers would seek monetary protection for injured players, via insurance policies. I would imagine that an injury-prone pitcher like Sheets would cost more, in terms of premiums, but they'd be covered for most of, if not all, of Sheets's deal, if he gets hurt during the next contract, so it's not as of the Brewers would be hamstrung from getting a replacement.

thanks for the welcome.

 

I'm one of those trolls to BF.net. I read almost everything I can here, yet I don't post much. I post on other sites actually as what I usually want to say here has been covered by another good poster. I dont see a need in rehashing something already said I guess.

 

Anyhow, I was more referring to the risk from Ben Sheets POV. I don't think he could NOT take seriously 4/48 as other posters have stated. Given his injury history in his most previous 3 year split and the fact that he is a pitcher turning 30 this year, how in anyone's right mind can you turn down approximately 50 million dollars when it is guaranteed now. I'd anticipate the most possible he might get after next season assuming he does a little better than the previous 3 seasons would be about 60 million / 4 years. Risking it all over 10 mil over 4 seasons doesn't seem logical to me. But then again, im not a millionaire already, he may just roll the dice if the Brewers do offer him 4/48.

 

I wouldn't recommend it to Ben if I were his agent though. History could catch up to him, in a bad way. Not that it will, there is a chance of big injury, especially with Ben. The Brewers are in a good negotiating position with Ben, right now. Come July, not so much.

[JJHardy7]

The talk about trading Sheets is coming up because everybody knows he is going to get more than we are going to be willing to pay him on the open market next year when he is a free agent and he is in the last year of his contract.

How much is he actually worth though? If I thought Sheets was worthy of a #1 SP spot in terms of money I'd have no problem with it. I loved the fact we extended him last time. I think this time around he hasn't shown me much to pay him even more. I don't think this is a money issue (ie how much can the Brewers pay a good player). I think it has to do more with the risk (Sheets) vs. the reward (not being injured). I believe if the Brewers feel he's worth of an extension they'd give it to him.

 

As much as I hope the Brewers don't extend Sheets, the fact that Cordero is gone frees up money. I have no clue if this will impact Sheets, but it can't hurt his/Brewers chances of an extension.

[Weirdos19]

My question is, if Bennie wanted five years, do you give it to him, knowing that the fifth year would extend into when some of our younger players become free agents? I'd say no.

 

I'd say yes to 3yr/42 or maybe even 4yr/56 but that fifth year money may have to be used on somebody else.

[logan82]

Even at 3-4 years we are getting into arbitration years for some of our younger players.

[sbrylski]

I'd go 4/$60 with a team option at $18-20 million. During that contract, lock up Hart and one infielder. Sheets contract would perfectly hand off to Gallardo when he's ready for FA.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think he could NOT take seriously 4/48 as other posters have stated. Given his injury history in his most previous 3 year split and the fact that he is a pitcher turning 30 this year, how in anyone's right mind can you turn down approximately 50 million dollars when it is guaranteed now. I'd anticipate the most possible he might get after next season assuming he does a little better than the previous 3 seasons would be about 60 million / 4 years. Risking it all over 10 mil over 4 seasons doesn't seem logical to me. But then again, im not a millionaire already, he may just roll the dice if the Brewers do offer him 4/48.

 

I wouldn't recommend it to Ben if I were his agent though. History could catch up to him, in a bad way. Not that it will, there is a chance of big injury, especially with Ben. The Brewers are in a good negotiating position with Ben, right now. Come July, not so much.

If Gil Meche gets $11 AAV last offseason, I'd be willing to bet that Sheets gets north of or - at worst - $15 mil. AAV if he were a FA this offseason (especially given what starting pitching is available). 4/$48 mil is merely $12 mil. AAV. At this point I think it's safe to say Ben would get more, and likely will after the 2008 season.

Carlos Lee rolled the dice on a similar offer, and we saw that even Cordero was able to find a more lucrative deal around a similar offer from our club. If Ben would ink on a 4/48 deal, he'd be doing the Milwaukee Brewers a gigantic favor.

[aracko]

Losing out on Cordero has changed my opinion on Benny Sheets. I think that we should offer that contract to him - a 4 year 44 -48 Million extension. If he takes it then we have him locked up long term. If he passes then we look to deal him to a big market club. I disagree with the previous posters who do not think Sheets is our most valueble chip. I think that right behind Prince and Yo - both of whom are untouchable, Sheeter is next in line. If Sheets ever was able to put up another 200+ IP season we are going to be talkign about 17-23 Wins most likely as well as some Cy Young votes. Now that the Coco money is available I say we OFFER it to Sheeter and see what reaction it gets.

[JimH5]

Really aracko?

17-23 wins for Sheets?!?

From a guy who hasn't won more than 12 in any of his 7 seasons?

I'm curious which other pitchers have won 17 games after not reaching 13 in any of their first 7 years. I don't know the answer, but I would bet that the list isn't long.

[aracko]

If he gives us 200+ Innings, yes I would feel as though 17 wins is not that much of a stretch at all. This is a MUCH better offensive team than the ones of 2002 and 2003.

 

The key in my statement was the IF and the 200+ IP.

[JJHardy7]

The key to your statement is the IF. I just don't see Sheets all of a sudden pitching a full year. That's where it comes down to for me. A healthy Sheets I'd want extended as soon as possible. I just have serious doubts that we'll get a healthy Sheets.

[Bucky Rules]

Really aracko?

 

17-23 wins for Sheets?!?

 

From a guy who hasn't won more than 12 in any of his 7 seasons?

If Sheets pitches 200 IP, I have no doubt he'd win that many. The only reason he hasn't won 17 games in the past, is because he played for bad teams that gave him no run support -- or in the case of the last couple of years, he missed a lot of time. I don't see run support being a problem with this team any longer. And you can count me in the camp that believes that Ben will be healthy again. I base that on the fact that his injuries have not been arm/shoulder related - and some have been just downright strange/freakish.

 

I'm all for trying to extend him. An Oswalt type deal minus 1 year makes sense to me. That'd be about 4/60mil. If he wants to stay in Milwaukee, my guess is he'd take a deal like that.

[Ennder]

The key to your statement is the IF. I just don't see Sheets all of a sudden pitching a full year. That's where it comes down to for me. A healthy Sheets I'd want extended as soon as possible. I just have serious doubts that we'll get a healthy Sheets.

You make it sound like he is an invalid or something. He had an injury that bridged the end of one year and start of another and then jammed a finger. His injury risk is probably lower than Capuano's and only marginally higher than the other ptichers.

[TooLiveBrew]

Don't forget him pulling his hammy while warming up, Ennder.

 

I'm all for trying to extend him. An Oswalt type deal minus 1 year makes sense to me. That'd be about 4/60mil. If he wants to stay in Milwaukee, my guess is he'd take a deal like that.I'm all for trying to extend him. An Oswalt type deal minus 1 year makes sense to me. That'd be about 4/60mil. If he wants to stay in Milwaukee, my guess is he'd take a deal like that.

 

The 'Oswalt deal' comp works well until you factor in that it's now 2007, heading into 2008. Value for players, and especially SP, has risen quite a bit. As I said earlier, if you're valuing Sheets at only $12-15 mil. AAV, you're probably coming in on the low end of any negotiation(s). If Sheets wants to stay in Milwaukee, awesome - I just don't think it'd be for a 4/$60 mil. deal, since he could do much better as a FA.

[endaround]

But Sheets has a much greater injury history compared to Oswalt and Oswalt has been the better pitcher.

[TooLiveBrew]

But do you really think that's enough to hold Benny's value down at or below $15 mil. AAV? I remain skeptical about that, though I obviously hope that's the case, and we can re-sign Sheets for 3 or 4 years.