Re-signing Ben Sheets

[Oldcity]

The Brewers might not find a pitcher of Sheets' caliber for a decade. If you can't get an absolute haul for him in a trade, you have to re-sign him if he's willing to stay.

[Invader3K]

They might already have one at least close to Sheets' caliber in Yovani Gallardo. I think it's time to build around Gallardo.

[NYChez]

Let's say that Gallardo stays healthy and meets his potential. That's one rotation spot. What other potential top-of-the-rotation guy do they have lined up anytime in the next 3 years?

 

They need to attempt to re-sign Sheets unless they are able to trade him for a solid starting pitching prospect.

 

Otherwise there would be a real danger that we would turn into the Texas Rangers (unbelievable infield but little else).

[JJHardy7]

It's not like Sheets is 25 either though. If we do sign him to a 4 year 60 million dollar deal, that ties up a lot of resources unless Mark A is really wishing to spend more. I'm not saying Sheets is a bad pitcher or that he can't carry a team...I just don't think he can be counted on to carry a team. I think it's important to realize the impact he's had on the Brewers when on the DL. You could argue Sheets is the #1 reason why the Brewers bullpen wore down so bad, which in turn is why the Brewers were watching the playoffs from home.

 

Sheet's has given the Brewers 3 injury filled seasons under his deal. I don't think the Brewers owe him anything, but to treat him with respect and politely say no -- unless he takes a discount. I'd rather trade Sheets now or see where we are on July 31st. We don't owe him anything at this point.

 

I've posted this before, but ever since Sheets was in Beloit his own teammates have questioned his work ethic and the shape he would show up at. There are players inside the organization that don't think he takes care of himself.

[Invader3K]

JJHardy7, you re-summarized my feelings pretty well.

 

I just can't help having the opinion that certain posters here are overly attached to Ben Sheets. I like him too. He has great stuff, great heat, and when he's on, he's on. Unfortunately, looking back at this past season, there were times, even when not injured, that he wasn't exactly dominant. That coupled with the fact that he has been injured over the past three seasons and getting older...it just boggles my mind that the same people who are usually so cautious to see the Brewers give out big money contracts want to see Ben Sheets signed for $60 million+ for four seasons. I just think people are so emotionally invested in him because the Brewers drafted him, and he's been "our guy" for the past seven years. Let's face it...that's longer than the Brewers have ever held on to pretty much any of their starting pitchers since probably the early to mid 1980s.

 

If the Brewers can get something for him that makes the team better in 2008, I think it makes the most sense to part company and wish him the best where he goes. He doesn't need to turn into the Brewers Kerry Wood or Mark Prior story.

[JJHardy7]

Didn't it also seem like Sheets didn't have the velocity he has had in the past last year? Especially later in games?

[lukevan]

Sheets was effective last season when he was in there. The reason many of us want him around is because we want Gallardo AND Sheets, not just Gallardo.

 

For '08, we're likely talking about the difference between having Sheets or someone like Dave Bush (e.g.) in the starting rotation. To me, even if Sheets misses 6-8 starts again and Bush has to fill in, that's still worth a couple more wins than just having Bush replace Sheets. If you sign Sheets for $15m/year right now, he could look like an absolute steal in a couple years. This seems to be our year for contention and I don't want to arrive without ample quality starting pitchers.

 

I'd like Sheets re-signed to a 4 yr / 60 m deal, but at the least let him play out 2008 with the Crew UNLESS you could really upgrade at C AND get some kind of quality SP (maybe even a near ML ready prospect).

[JJHardy7]

I let Sheets play it out if he can be healthy. Or make Sheets the #5 starter on day one and make him prove himself.

 

I'm not saying Sheets isn't good, but he can't be counted on. I don't think Sheets takes care of himself or he is injury prone. I have nothing against the guy, but $15 million over 4 years is a huge commitment. I'd rather use some of that to buy out some years (if possible) for the young core.

 

A healthy Sheets and Yo is a really good 1, 2 punch, but if we don't have Sheets from Day 1 we can plan accordingly. It appears to be a broken record the past few years. Sheets gets hurt, bullpen wears down, and the Brewers lose games.

[TooLiveBrew]

At this point, the way I weigh it is that we can count on roughly 25 starts from Sheets. No knock on him necessarily, but that's just the way it's worked out the last few years. I have to look at anything more than 25 as a bonus. But 25 (+) starts from Sheets plus 25 (+) starts from Gallardo is pretty darn nice, even if there have to be fill-ins for missed starts. I'm not suggesting that YoGa won't pitch more, but just that our SP situation is vastly improved merely by him being with the team from Opening Day.

 

Sheets has said before he believes contracts are as much for what you've done as what you're likely to produce, so perhaps we'd receive some (if only a little) hometown discount consideration. You never know with players, though it's more likely that there'd be no discount.

 

EDIT: To compare by 'the market', if - hypothetically - Santana is worth $20 mil./yr., and we assume 1 year = 33 starts, that's appx. $606K/start. So if that's the (crude) model, 25 starts of Sheets costs appx. $15 mil./yr. I'd do that, and I'd gladly offer him a 4 year / $60-65 mil. contract. By the time we'd have to worry about clearing room to re-sign the young guys, his AAV coupled with his skill should make that contract very trade-able.

[rluzinski]

A healthy Sheets would probably get something like 5 years, $75 mil on the open market. If we are to assume that the current Sheets can only be counted on for 150 IP, doesn't that still make him worth a 4+ year deal at $10+ per year, easy? I'm not saying the Brewers should pay that but right now but I think some fans are over doing the "he can't be counted on" sentiment.

 

Or make Sheets the #5 starter on day one and make him prove himself.

 

What on earth would be the point of that?

[hauser42]

Sheets will get big money on the open market no matter what is past injuries are. He would be crazy to sign for anything less than market value. The Yankees will be looking for a veteran arm to go with there 4 big arms in the next free agency. Think about it Wang, Sheets, Chamberlian. Hughes, and Kennedy. Other big market teams will get in the mix also if the Yanks dont step up. Moving Sheets in the next year is a must if you want to get return on him.

 

Would be nice to have Sheets and Yo around for a full year but that is pretty tricky with Brittle Ben's health and a short term contract.

[MoneyballMan]

Has anyone seen any report that Sheets would even be willing to consider signing an extension before the end of 2008? I'm assuming he's going to bet on himself having a comeback year and really cashing in huge. As other posters have pointed out, even if he doesn't have an outstanding season, someone (e.g. Yankees) will offer something that will look crazy. He's really in a no-lose situation except for career-ending injury. I believe we'd need to knock his socks off right now to get him to sign.

[Ennder]

Personally I'm more worried by the fact his stuff wasn't as sharp this year than I am the injury issues.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Personally I'm more worried by the fact his stuff wasn't as sharp this year than I am the injury issues.

 

That'd be my concern also. His WHIP was up, his K/9 was down substantially, and his curveball never really looked all that good, other than a small handful of starts.

 

Also (and I'll get crucified for this I'm sure), people keep saying stuff like "true number ones don't grow on trees!" and "You don't get rid of an ace when you have one!"

 

IS Ben Sheets an ACE? In 7 seasons, he's had an ERA under 3.82 two times. He's thrown 160 innings only three times in 7 years. Jake Peavey, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, those guys are aces. To me, Benny seems like a solid #2 (a solid #2 who can't stay healthy). I don't disagree with Russ' sentiment that 25 starts of Sheets is still worth quite a bit, but I think over the years, we Brewer fans have overstimated what Ben really is. He had an awesome 2004, and he's shown over his career when he's "on" in any given game, he can dominate. I just don't feel that he's what we think he is, and that's a true "ace", by the definition that's most commonly accepted.

[logan82]

I wouldn't resign Sheets. He will get at least what Suppan currently has for a contract. I would guess that he will get way more than that from somebody else, especially if he has a year without going on the DL this year. I also wouldn't trade him either. I just don't think we will get anybody good enough to replace him even at 25 starts. Again, yes we have a potential #1 starter in Gallardo, but he will not be replacing Sheets in the rotation next year. The 2nd best of of Bush/Parra/Capuano/Vargas will. I would rather have Sheets make 25 of those starts with that other guy making 10 as opposed to whatever we can get in trade for Sheets. The innings for Sheets are far and away more effective than any of the innings for our other pitchers.

[clancyphile]

I'd offer Sheets 5 years and $65 million today. See if he will go for that.

[Mass Haas]

I've posted this before, but ever since Sheets was in Beloit his own teammates have questioned his work ethic and the shape he would show up at. There are players inside the organization that don't think he takes care of himself.

It's been pointed out at least twice now that Sheets never pitched at Beloit. I know you have connections in Nashville, JJHardy7, but you're going to have to back it up accurately, at least.

[aracko]

Forget resigning Sheets. I think we should trade him but if not, let him pitch the year to prove his worth. Pitching for a contract provides motivation and a motivated Sheets is a dominating Sheets I am willing to bet.

 

We have all season to work out an extension.

[Ennder]

Personally I'm more worried by the fact his stuff wasn't as sharp this year than I am the injury issues.

That'd be my concern also. His WHIP was up, his K/9 was down substantially, and his curveball never really looked all that good, other than a small handful of starts.

 

Also (and I'll get crucified for this I'm sure), people keep saying stuff like "true number ones don't grow on trees!" and "You don't get rid of an ace when you have one!"

 

IS Ben Sheets an ACE? In 7 seasons, he's had an ERA under 3.82 two times. He's thrown 160 innings only three times in 7 years. Jake Peavey, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, those guys are aces. To me, Benny seems like a solid #2 (a solid #2 who can't stay healthy). I don't disagree with Russ' sentiment that 25 starts of Sheets is still worth quite a bit, but I think over the years, we Brewer fans have overstimated what Ben really is. He had an awesome 2004, and he's shown over his career when he's "on" in any given game, he can dominate. I just don't feel that he's what we think he is, and that's a true "ace", by the definition that's most commonly accepted.

 

Sheets put up ace numbers in 2005 and 2006, he just had a higher ERA because of starts he left while injured. I just dunno if he's an ace from 2008 on or if the injuries have caused problems long term.

[TerraceReserved]

Sheets has had FIP's the past 4 years of 2.80 in 04, 2.49 in 05, 2.48 in 06, 4.07 in 07. When he's healthy theres no doubt in my mind that he's an ace. Whether he will be healthy will be interesting.

 

Another thing that worries me about Sheets is this. In 05 and 07, his groundball rates were down and flyball rates up. Couple that with his un-Sheetslike K/BB ratio of those 2 years, and I really have no idea what to expect of him this next year. We can only hope that its the very good Sheets with his wicked curve and a fastball at 95-96 that shows up. Last yearit seemed like his curve was rarely working and his fastball had lost some velocity. Let's hope that will stop, too.

[twobrewers]

How hard is it to prevent blisters?

 

It seems in addition to Sheet's "freak" injuries, that he has reoccurring blister problems. I understand that is part of the problem of throwing a hard curve.

 

It just seems that if one of my biggest problems was blisters, I would be able to devise a way to avoid that.

[Invader3K]

Roco pointed out something that I've felt for a long time...if Sheets is an "ace", he is only one in the loosest sense of the word.

 

It's like other teams in the neighborhood such as the Twins have the big boy diecast metal "MLB All-Star Ace" kit, and the Brewers have the Fisher-Price cheap plastic "My First Ace Pitcher" starter kit. It's fun and sometimes it works, but it doesn't hold together all too well. I think it's time to upgrade, even if it's addition by subtraction.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Roco pointed out something that I've felt for a long time...if Sheets is an "ace", he is only one in the loosest sense of the word.

 

It's like other teams in the neighborhood such as the Twins have the big boy diecast metal "MLB All-Star Ace" kit, and the Brewers have the Fisher-Price cheap plastic "My First Ace Pitcher" starter kit. It's fun and sometimes it works, but it doesn't hold together all too well. I think it's time to upgrade, even if it's addition by subtraction.

 

Wow, you put it in words in a way I never thought of, but it's funny as h-e-double hockey sticks!

You're right though. Aces, like Oswalt, Peavey, Santana, Webb, (on and on) are a clear step above Sheets. Part of being an ace is being able to be on the mound. I know the argument has been had here over and over, regarding whether or not Sheets is "injury prone", but simply put, freak injuries or not, in 7 full major league seasons, he's gone over 160 IP only 3 times.

 

[lukevan]

Trading Sheets away would not be addition by subtraction, but subtraction by subtraction. No one is trading us a pitcher better than Sheets, at least as far as the 2008 season is concerned. Perhaps a prospect gained in a deal could turn out to be Sheets-like with better health but I'd say at best that's a risky proposition.

 

EDIT: Meant to add also, the question of whether or not Sheets is an ace is irrelevant. The question is are the Brewers better when he is pitching. Even if he misses time he is still of great value and we have capable spot starters already on the roster.

[Invader3K]

Or maybe trading Sheets will give us pieces to upgrade in other places, Gallardo steps up to eventually become a true #1 starter, and the Brewers acquire a servicable #4/5 type starter to get us through 2008.