Law on ESPNradio and one of my own...

[aracko]

Its not so much Sheets injury history that worries me - its the fact that his contract has outweighed his performance for some time now. Next year he is a free agent and sure to price himself out of our range. If we can get Ben Sheets 30 start value from a team then I say we move him in a heartbeat.

 

Id be all ears if I were Doug - I think once teams start thinking that the reality of adding Sheets is possible, they will give a little extra and a little extra till it gets done to have him in the rotation.

[aracko]

Its not so much Sheets injury history that worries me - its the fact that his contract has outweighed his performance for some time now. Next year he is a free agent and sure to price himself out of our range. If we can get Ben Sheets 30 start value from a team then I say we move him in a heartbeat.

 

Id be all ears if I were Doug - I think once teams start thinking that the reality of adding Sheets is possible, they will give a little extra and a little extra till it gets done to have him in the rotation.

[naivin]

Saying he is likely to start 24 games just seems foolish to me from a SP that hasn't had an arm related injury in 1.5 years.

Wow, a whole year and a half without an arm/shoulder related injury - let the Greg Maddux comparisons begin. How many games has a he started in that time? Arm injury or not, history would indicate that if 24 is the number, the smart money is on the under.

 

Out of the teams last 221 games Sheets has made 37 starts. Most pitchers make 30-34 starts per 162 games, he has made 27 per 162 games. The games he missed were mostly for a jammed finger that can happen to any pitcher in baseball and isn't indicative of some sort of long term health issue. Before his one major injury he had made 34 starts per 162 games for 3 years straight. It is one big injury that is making him 'injury prone'. Just seems weird to me.

 

It is like being worried about Halladay getting hurt because he got hit by line drives twice or Hardy because he got hurt sliding into home the year after he hurt his shoulder. You worry about them recovering from those injuries but once they are over them you don't expect more to come.

Its actually not like that at all - blisters, hamstrings and shoulder injuries are not getting hit by a lien drive. To me its more like he doesn't really take very good care of himself and suffers a lot of injuries that could potentially be prevented (admittedly just my opinion based on observation). That aside, that last 221 games thing is all fine and good, but he has been a Brewer for 1134 games, and in those 7 seasons he has made 25 or fewer stars 4 times, and 34 the other 3. Again, history would indicate that if the number is 24/25, the smart money is on the under. Not necessarily a bet I would make mind you, because its not a slam dunk by any means, but there is little in the recent or long-term past to indicate that he can be relied upon to make those 30-34 starts. Not sure of what the definition of injury prone is, but the fact is, Sheets is a guy that has fallen about 35% short of the 'expected' 30-34 starts 4 out of 7 seasons.

 

I guess the bottom line is, given that he is due a contract soon, and percentages seem to indicate you may not have him for a full season anyway, if you are able to take advantage of some other team and get good value in return, you make the deal. He may go on and never miss a start ever again. Then again, he may go out a make 20 starts again. History indicates the latter is more likely.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wow, a whole year and a half without an arm/shoulder related injury - let the Greg Maddux comparisons begin. How many games has a he started in that time? Arm injury or not, history would indicate that if 24 is the number, the smart money is on the under.

That post glosses over almost everything that Ennder said in the post to which you responded. While I agree that it's more likely that Ben won't get to 30 starts in 2008, I think it's very unwise to discount the freak nature of his injury situation. The point that if he'd just missed the entirety of 2005 verses the injury bridging two years is very relevant.

 

Blisters are a common problem for pitchers (Beckett, as one example), and the hammy injury drove me as crazy as anyone. But I don't think it's wise to discount what Sheets may put up in a contract year. As I've said before, unless you get a strong, MLB-ready SP in return as a part of a deal involving Sheets, it's pointless to trade him.

[Ennder]

Oh I am not against trading him at all, I just think people overstate the injuries a bit because of how they happened and no history doesn't indicate the latter~.

 

He has had one major injury in 7 years and one minor injury (required a short DL stint). He has averaged 27 starts per season over his career and outside of the one major injury where he made 4 starts in 132 games he has averaged 30 starts per 162 games with the other games missed due to the inner ear thing, a jammed finger and a team babying their big rookie when he had a little soreness. Unless you expect his shoulder to get hurt again the guess that makes the most sense is 30 starts given his career.

 

But I guess it isn't worth arguing because people have made up their minds and the only thing that will change them is a 34 start season (which only 20 starters in all of baseball had last year btw so it is actually rare to have so many)

[RU Rah Rah]

Ennder wrote:

 

But I guess it isn't worth arguing because people have made up their minds and the only thing that will change them is a 34 start season (which only 20 starters in all of baseball had last year btw so it is actually rare to have so many)

Nope, not me. I'd just like to see 200 IP, which is fairly routine. (At least 10 guys in the NL did it last year; in the AL, at least 12.) For whatever reason, Sheets has failed to reach this plateau the last three years.

Just out of curiosity, what are his career stats if you exclude '04? I'd have to think that his career ERA would be over 4.00, and his ERA+ would be right around the NL average. (Even last year, his ERA after June 13 was 4.65.)

 

Realistically, based on his recent history, for 2008 we're looking at about 20 starts, maybe 150 innings, an ERA in the range of 3.80, and a W/L of 11-11. Couldn't the Brewers get that for a lot less money from someone else?

 

(And, yes, I know that ERA and W/L can be wacky.)

[Oldcity]

What's the point of excluding 2004? If you exclude 2007 Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun aren't anything all that exciting.

[TooLiveBrew]

Nope, not me. I'd just like to see 200 IP, which is fairly routine. (At least 10 guys in the NL did it last year; in the AL, at least 12.) For whatever reason, Sheets has failed to reach this plateau the last three years.

 

Routine? Yet you point out that only 30-ish guys did it this past season? I think the biggest thing to take away from Ennder's recent posts is just how frequently pitchers (yes, even good ones) wind up on the DL. Not any one type of pitcher, but pitchers in general. It just comes with the territory.

 

EDIT: The total number of SP that met or exceeded 200 IP from 2007 - 38. Even if you only compare that to the number of SP slots (as in 5 per team), that's really a small percentage. When you consider that every team has more than 5 SP in a season, it shrinks even more.

[Roscoe Chill]

So Sheets is going to get healthier as he gets older? OK, he had one injury that spanned over two seasons in 2005 and 2006? What about last year?

 

I think what the poster who asked what his numbers were if you take out 2004 was trying to say was that if you do take out that ONE season, his production is far from special. So if you want to call his last three injury riddled years flukes, why can't you call his ONE special season a fluke?

 

I think Sheets really is good, but like another poster said, it doesn't matter how good he is when he isn't able to pitch, major inury, minor injury, it doesn't matter does it? He just isn't out there enough. He wasn't out there down the stretch in a season where the Brewers should have finally made the playoffs. Plain and simple.

 

If the Brewers can get Jeff Francoeur AND Chuck James for Sheets, I guess I just don't understand why people would be against that.

 

I mean here are the realistic outcomes for Sheets this season and the subsequent future:

 

A) Healthy all year, helps the Brewers get to the post season...leaves after the season.

 

B) Healthy all year, Brewers come up short again...leaves after the season.

 

C) Healthy all year, Brewers aren't good, traded mid season.

 

D) Hurt again during the season, has no trade value, leaves after season.

 

E) Hurt again during the season, Brewers sign to an undeserved new contract after four straight injury filled years.

 

 

I'll take option A, but I really don't want any of the other options. I just think there is a better chance of some of those other options happening. There's not going to be an option where Sheets has a great season AND comes back, I'm sorry to say. Getting another young stud like Francoeur will pay dividends for years to come. And you wouldn't have Sheets from the get go and therefore the sky wouldn't fall when he goes on th DL again.

[endaround]

His production was very special in 2006

[SmartBall]

Sheets has had some good years for the Crew and one unbelievable year, but to expand on NDO's end of year options, none of which help the crew after this year, Sheets didn't look all that good last year when he was healthy. His strikeouts were way down, his walks were up and he was knicked up repeatedly. Well he didn't have the big arm injury, the tweaked groin and hamstring combined with his weight and the rumors that are often found on this board and other places that he isn't exactly a gym rat doesn't lead one to believe that he is in line for monster year next year. Now he might bounce back and be unbelievable or he might be ordinary or he might be hurt, but if you can trade him for ace value even though you are not guarunteed to get an ace on the hill next year, you have to at least explore it.

[RU Rah Rah]

Nope, not me. I'd just like to see 200 IP, which is fairly routine. (At least 10 guys in the NL did it last year; in the AL, at least 12.) For whatever reason, Sheets has failed to reach this plateau the last three years.

 

Routine? Yet you point out that only 30-ish guys did it this past season? I think the biggest thing to take away from Ennder's recent posts is just how frequently pitchers (yes, even good ones) wind up on the DL. Not any one type of pitcher, but pitchers in general. It just comes with the territory.

 

EDIT: The total number of SP that met or exceeded 200 IP from 2007 - 38. Even if you only compare that to the number of SP slots (as in 5 per team), that's really a small percentage. When you consider that every team has more than 5 SP in a season, it shrinks even more.

So we shouldn't expect our purported #1 starter to be among the top 40 in IP?

 

 

 

[barbados73]

I wouldn't trade Sheets unless the Brewers had another deal in place for a Harden/Bedard type pitcher. The Brewers are suppose to be in a win now mode and you can't do much in the playoffs without a pitcher with "ace" stuff. Gallardo could be good but a lot of young pitchers come out of the blocks strong but falter their second year in the league(Cal Eldred comes to mind). I just don't see how the Brewers could sell it to the fans that they want to win and then go and trade their only proven above average pitcher(when healthy). If the Brewers could get a package of say Kershaw and Either and then flip Kershaw, Laporta and ??? for Bedard, I would be all for it.

[jjfanec]

I agree with barbados. Unless we can get a true ace trading sheets makes very little sense to me. Sure he has a lot o question marks but we need an ace to win the division and I dont think we can call Gallardo an ace yet. If we trade sheets without getting a one or two type pitcher our rotation looks weak to me. Gallardo, Villy Soup, Cappy and Bush or Parra. That does not look like a playo caliber rotation to me but I could be wrong.

Sheet's value does not seem high so why sell low on a guy who IF he is healthy can be what puts this team over the top. We do have depth in our rotation but not on the top end. I feel like we need Sheets to compete. Without him last year we just were not that good. I know it is assumed he will be hurt for part of next year and part of the argument is that we will be better prepared if we just trade him now, but I just do not see us getting the value we need. We can shore up 3B/LF by trading Bush, Cappy or Vargas along with Gwynn JR and not create more holes. Or we could trade Sheets and probably get decent value but leave our rotation with question marks everywhere.

[lukevan]

So we shouldn't expect our purported #1 starter to be among the top 40 in IP?

 

What does the fact that he's a #1 starter have to do with potential for injury?

 

A) Healthy all year, helps the Brewers get to the post season...leaves after the season.

 

B) Healthy all year, Brewers come up short again...leaves after the season.

 

C) Healthy all year, Brewers aren't good, traded mid season.

 

D) Hurt again during the season, has no trade value, leaves after season.

 

E) Hurt again during the season, Brewers sign to an undeserved new contract after four straight injury filled years.

 

F) Healthy all year, the Brewers sign him early in the season to a new deal.

[brosto1]

If Sheets misses 10 ore more starts again this year, there will still be question marks in the rotation. If this was a team of veterans, I would definitely not trade Sheets. The nucleus is very young and if there is a deal out there that brings back a good young arm that will help this year and a 3B, I would do it. By trading Sheets for young major league talent that will be here for four or more years, it just gives the team many more chances at winning a World Series, because it isn't always the best team that wins it but the team playing the best at the end of the year. No more evidence is needed than the recent successes of teams like Florida, St. Louis, and Colorado.

[RU Rah Rah]

So we shouldn't expect our purported #1 starter to be among the top 40 in IP?

 

What does the fact that he's a #1 starter have to do with potential for injury?

 

I have no idea. I just want the guy to answer the bell consistently -- and he really hasn't done that for the past three seasons.

 

I feel like I'm being told that we can't evaluate him on:

 

1.) Injuries (because they are unrelated, because everyone gets hurt)

2.) ERA (because it's not a "pure" stat, because he's bound to give up a lot of HR because he pounds the strike zone)

3.) IP (because only 40 guys a year pitch 200+ innings)

4.) Win/loss record (because it's often just a function of luck and the team's overall offensive/defensive performance)

 

I agree that, individually, there are valid criticisms for each of those criteria. But I don't feel optimistic about his future with the team when we have to engage in this kind of debate year after year.

[Roscoe Chill]

F) Healthy all year, the Brewers sign him early in the season to a new deal.

 

If you think Sheets would actually sign a contract mid season with the money pitchers are getting, I don't know what to tell you. If that were to happen the Brewers would have to offer around $20 million a year...do you really think THEY would do that?

 

And endaround, you're missing the point on this whole Sheets debate. Sure in '06 Sheets was special, but how many starts did he make? His durability is the probably the only reason the Brewers haven't extended him or at least tried to extend him already.

[hauser42]

Nope, not me. I'd just like to see 200 IP, which is fairly routine. (At least 10 guys in the NL did it last year; in the AL, at least 12.) For whatever reason, Sheets has failed to reach this plateau the last three years.

 

Routine? Yet you point out that only 30-ish guys did it this past season? I think the biggest thing to take away from Ennder's recent posts is just how frequently pitchers (yes, even good ones) wind up on the DL. Not any one type of pitcher, but pitchers in general. It just comes with the territory.

 

EDIT: The total number of SP that met or exceeded 200 IP from 2007 - 38. Even if you only compare that to the number of SP slots (as in 5 per team), that's really a small percentage. When you consider that every team has more than 5 SP in a season, it shrinks even more.

Come on why would you even include the 5th starter or any of the fill ins. 5th starter is skipped over a bunch of times during the season so there is no way he will hit the 200 mark. Any fillin player is not going to hit the mark either unless he come into the rotation early. So we are talking about 120 SPs that at the start of the season have a realistic chance of hitting 200 IP. We are talking about 30% of SP hitting that markm last year. Now I will bet Ben Sheets is being paid in the top 30% of SP around the league and he sure is not earning his money when you look at the IPs.

[MJLiverock]

For a team like the Brewers to make the playoffs and do something great like win the World Series they have to have a lot of things go their way or have the stars align just right. One of those things may very well be a health Ben Sheets. He is the only guy on the staff with the stuff to be a dominate pitcher, Yo may be one day but is is still young. Pitching is crucial to a playoff run and betting on the potential of a healthy Sheets being an ace may be the best shot the Brewers have. Betting on a bunch of average pitchers can get you in the playoffs over a 162 games but it may just get you swept out in a short series.

 

The Brewers as a bottom half payroll team pretty much have to take some risks and hope for the big payoff when they are presented with the window of opportunity that the cheapness of their young stars provide them. I look at the Gagne signing in this light and potentially a Rolen deal as well. Mediocre players at good contracts don't push them over the top, they make them competitive but not champions. A former superstar catching lightning again may be enough.

[Oldcity]

F) Healthy all year, the Brewers sign him early in the season to a new deal.

 

If you think Sheets would actually sign a contract mid season with the money pitchers are getting, I don't know what to tell you. If that were to happen the Brewers would have to offer around $20 million a year...do you really think THEY would do that?

Zambrano and Oswalt didn't get 20 mil per when they signed mid-season, and those are richer teams. 20 mil is a huge overestimate.

[TooLiveBrew]

Come on why would you even include the 5th starter or any of the fill ins. 5th starter is skipped over a bunch of times during the season so there is no way he will hit the 200 mark. Any fillin player is not going to hit the mark either unless he come into the rotation early. So we are talking about 120 SPs that at the start of the season have a realistic chance of hitting 200 IP. We are talking about 30% of SP hitting that markm last year. Now I will bet Ben Sheets is being paid in the top 30% of SP around the league and he sure is not earning his money when you look at the IPs.

Well, I never said anything about pay-scale or any of that. I included all pitchers because I didn't know I was supposed to use a qualifier like 'some don't count.' You said 200 IP is "routine," when clearly it isn't - reinforced by your estimate of 30%.

 

I understand your point about payment v. production, but my only issue was 200 IP getting called "routine." It's just not.

[lukevan]

Why wouldn't Sheets consider a $14-15 mil/year offer early in the season? He's already taken a mild hometown discount once to stay in Milwaukee and by his own admission thinks that players get paid as much for what they've done as for what they're going to do. I don't think Sheets is the type of player that wouldn't listen to a multi-million dollar offer.

 

Now I'm not saying that it is necessarily the best solution to just hand Benny a bunch of money, but it is an option, and I think the Brewers could get him resigned if they thought the risk was worth it.

[naivin]

Why are we even talking about 200 innings pitched? Lets start by getting him up around 175 - I'd be good with that. In 4 of 7 seasons he's been around or below 150. Is 175 reasonable? 70 different pitchers hit that mark last year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Why are we even talking about 200 innings pitched? Lets start by getting him up around 175 - I'd be good with that. In 4 of 7 seasons he's been around or below 150. Is 175 reasonable? 70 different pitchers hit that mark last year.

Good point. He's failed to be an ERA title qualifier in over half his seasons. I'd be happy with 170 IP from Sheets, I'm just skeptical that we'll get it. Truth be told, 150 IP from Sheets is worth more than 200 IP of a guy like Vargas. The problem is that last year when Sheets went down, we had guys like Villy, Parra, and Yo to plug into his spot. Assuming that one or 2 of the Capuano/Vargas/Bush/Parra group gets traded, they're not going to have such a luxury of depth when Sheets goes on the DL again.