Law on ESPNradio and one of my own...

[TCSM]

The Brewers 2008 offseason "...Take it for what it is worth."

[Oldcity]

Ugh. No Kelly Johnson or Rafael Soriano? No thanks.

 

Edit: I guess there isn't as much of a need now for Soriano, but I wouldn't give up Sheets for Francouer.

[ILuvDaBush]

I think Doug has to hold out for McCann. That is probably the only way we would match up well with them now if Sheets is involved. Francouer doesn't bring the OBP numbers that we need.

[sbrylski]

Kelly Johnson has to be included for this to be a deal I'd okay. He's the perfect LH, high OBP bat we need. He could play LF, or be shifted to 3B, or Weeks could go to LF.

 

EDIT: There's no way we get McCann, DaBush, he's untouchable.

[dadofandrew]

McCann is not being dealt, that bridge has already been crossed. Francouer's walk total goes up every year, and he's only 23.I'd have no problem projecting him for a .350+ OBP in '08.

[danzig6767]

McCann is not being dealt, that bridge has already been crossed. Francouer's walk total goes up every year, and he's only 23.I'd have no problem projecting him for a .350+ OBP in '08.

I agree that many people seem to forget/dismiss how young Francouer when projecting his future, but i've heard Melvin on the radio twice this week and both times he brought up getting a lefty bat numerous times.

 

[molitor fan]

Chuck James is a pretty decent little pitcher, and a much better return thatn a guy like Boyer...James is a 3/4 starter, but is built slightly, raising endurance concerns....Francoeur and James would be a decent return, though I would be loathe to do it. I still want our 3b/LF to come as a return from a trade of Capuano...I hope we do not minimize his value.

[TooLiveBrew]

Francouer's walk total goes up every year, and he's only 23.I'd have no problem projecting him for a .350+ OBP in '08.

There you go again with that, doa. If by "goes up every year," you mean, "went up from 2006 to 2007," then yes. But it certainly wasn't the case in the minors, and if you're counting improving on his 2005 total (11) from 257 ABs, well, of course it went up as he played full-time. However, if you're counting his entire season (including 335 ABs & 20 BBs in AAA that year), he actually dipped down from 2005 to 2006. That may well be how his BBs work on his career - fluctuating between awful & tolerable.

 

I think 2008 is the year we see if Francouer can continue to improve, or if his lack of plate discipline will stand in his way. He certainly hasn't posted the kind of SLG% or ISO that would indicate an OBP that's likely to increase yet - but it is important to keep in mind that he'll be just 23 for the 2008 season.

EDIT: Fwiw, here's Bill James's 2008 projection for Jeff: .288/.333/.475/.808

 

[dadofandrew]

James is predicting a regression in OBP from 23-24. It could easily occur, of course, but I sure would not bet on it.

[TooLiveBrew]

I didn't say I agreed with him... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

That is odd. He also has him pegged for what'd be his highest ISO (unless you count his number from the partial year in the bigs in '05), yet regressing in BBs. I sometimes wonder if James does much more than guesstimate some of his projections. An increase in ISO should produce a corresponding increase in OBP.

[RU Rah Rah]

Francouer is younger than Rickie, J.J, and Braun, and only a few months older than Prince. I love the idea of adding another young gun (especially one who can field his position).

[Ennder]

I'd support this trade, i'd even throw in a Mota or Turnbow type arm if the Braves think that is a good thing!

[Roscoe Chill]

One year of Sheets (make that 3/5 of a year if you go by the last three years) for Jeff Francoeur AND a pitcher? And most people here don't like it? I don't get it. Sign me up.

[Ennder]

One year of Sheets (make that 3/5 of a year if you go by the last three years) for Jeff Francoeur AND a pitcher? And most people here don't like it? I don't get it. Sign me up.

 

There is no reason to expect 3/5th of a year, he is 2 years removed from his arm injury and the next year was expected to give him problems. Last year was 100% not arm related and just a typical fluke style pitcher injury. I like the trade but lets be realistic with it too.

[brosto1]

At this point I would say it's just as realistic to suggest Sheets doesn't pitch in more than 24 starts next year. Arm injury, back, groin, ear, blister, take your pick what it will be this year. I am going to say he comes down with a severe case of pnemonia or hypothermia in the first week of August when the Brewers are in 95 degree heat with 95% humiidty in Atlanta.

[Ennder]

Sheets has had 1 major injury and 1 minor injury over 3 years, just seems like people are way to obsessed on his GS per year and ignoring the fact that one injury bridged 2 years. If you want to say he is only likely to start say 30 games because he'll miss a few with minor injuries I can buy that. Saying he is likely to start 24 games just seems foolish to me from a SP that hasn't had an arm related injury in 1.5 years.

[hauser42]

Shame Shame you guys got Ender all crazy by ripping on Sheets and his mounting injuries.

 

I would love to see the Brewers get Francouer or Johnson in a package for Sheets. He needs to get out of town so that his luck will change and he will reach his potential. IMO Sheets is never going to reach it in Milwaukee so it is time to move him and get value for him.

 

Would Cappy be the ace again if Sheets is traded??

[bklynbrewcrew]

The only way the Brewers should even consider trading Sheets is if they can get a young stud starter as part of the trade. I would need to get back a guy like Billingsley or Kershaw in order to move Sheets. We need to sign Sheets to an extension now while we still have the chance.

[RU Rah Rah]

For me, the argument about Sheets being dominant "when he's healthy" is like saying, "My car is awesome -- when it runs." Sure, it's periodically great, and maybe it gets me a few babes along the way, but I never know when I'm going to be stuck hitch-hiking or taking mass transit because it's in the shop with some squirrelly problem.

 

At this point, I'd prefer to cash in and get a couple of talented younger guys, like Francouer and James. James might not be a stud, but he seems at least serviceable, and Francouer is very young and potentially very good. I can see both of these guys contributing to the team five years from now; Sheets, I can't.

[aracko]

Id scoop that deal up in a heartbeat but Id try to get them to throw in Joey Devine as well. The Braves have some nice arms on their team - Devine is just one of them that could be groomed to take over for Mr. Gagne after the season. Lets not forget that with a 1 year deal to Gagne, he is definatly not a long term solution. In fact none of our BP arsm outside of Riske are really set to be with the team long term. I think its a fair bet that Melvin looks to add some young and rising BP arms to the minors. Then if some of these Vets dont pan out - we just make a call to the Farm.

 

The plan is solid.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Saying he is likely to start 24 games just seems foolish to me from a SP that hasn't had an arm related injury in 1.5 years.

 

Foolish? In the past 3 years he's started 22,17, and 24 games. It's one thing to disagree, but to say an opinion is "foolish" when facts show the guy has averaged 21 starts per year for 3 years is pretty close-minded. I think it's very reasonable to have concerns about his long term health.

[SoCalBrewfan]

"My car is awesome -- when it runs." Sure, it's periodically great, and maybe it gets me a few babes along the way, but I never know when I'm going to be stuck hitch-hiking or taking mass transit because it's in the shop with some squirrelly problem.

 

Sound like my friend and his Triumph. I told him once that it was telling that he said, 'I own a Triumph' and not 'I drive a Triumph.' Nice looking car though.

 

I don't think anyone can say with any certainty what Sheets will do this year. (Fill in many if not most pitchers there, for that matter...predicting pitchers is harder than forecasting the weather.) I think everyone can see the dilemma...Sheets could give you 100 decent innings, or 200 that are phenomenal.

 

Thing is, they have a good window and a number of other risks on the roster, particularly in the pitching staff. They're looking at a risky situation at 3b...either rolling the dice on a guy coming off an injury in Rolen, Crede, Blalock, or gambling that Braun can field well enough. They have other questions about the defense and offense of Weeks and Hall, and the catching situation. As teams try to contend, they usually try to minimize risks, rather than gambling on high-risk, high reward situations.

 

I would not be surprised to hear that Melvin tires of the uncertainty, and hitches his wagon to a more predictable, if less spectacular, group of pitchers. I think he'd need a lot to deal Sheets, including a good pitcher or excellent pitching prospect, plus a major league ready bat for 3b/LF/C, and then maybe something complementary. Melvin's style is to go for high-level prospect and young major leaguers, so I don't see him dealing Sheets for a Kershaw type (even if that were realistic).

[Ennder]

Saying he is likely to start 24 games just seems foolish to me from a SP that hasn't had an arm related injury in 1.5 years.

 

Foolish? In the past 3 years he's started 22,17, and 24 games. It's one thing to disagree, but to say an opinion is "foolish" when facts show the guy has averaged 21 starts per year for 3 years is pretty close-minded. I think it's very reasonable to have concerns about his long term health.

True if you don't actually look at what happened it sure does seem like you should expect 24. The whole key to the situation is the 2006 injury which was part of the 2005 one. If Sheets gets hurt in april of 2005, misses all of the season and is healthy all of 2006 people aren't so down on him. The fact that the injury was the end of one year and start of the next has really changed peoples opinion of him.

 

There is roughly a 1 in 3 chance that a pitchers goes on the DL any given season. Sheets is a little more of a health risk than average so he is probably more like a 40% chance to visit the DL. That is just how pitching is. I'm not going to sit here and say he is going to be healthy without a doubt but I don't think his chance of landing on the DL is all that much greater than an average pitcher now that he is so far removed from the arm problems. I was MUCH more worried about his health last year than I am this year. Now I'm more worried that his peripherals slipped so much last season.

[naivin]

Saying he is likely to start 24 games just seems foolish to me from a SP that hasn't had an arm related injury in 1.5 years.

Wow, a whole year and a half without an arm/shoulder related injury - let the Greg Maddux comparisons begin. How many games has a he started in that time? Arm injury or not, history would indicate that if 24 is the number, the smart money is on the under.

 

[Ennder]

Saying he is likely to start 24 games just seems foolish to me from a SP that hasn't had an arm related injury in 1.5 years.

Wow, a whole year and a half without an arm/shoulder related injury - let the Greg Maddux comparisons begin. How many games has a he started in that time? Arm injury or not, history would indicate that if 24 is the number, the smart money is on the under.

 

Out of the teams last 221 games Sheets has made 37 starts. Most pitchers make 30-34 starts per 162 games, he has made 27 per 162 games. The games he missed were mostly for a jammed finger that can happen to any pitcher in baseball and isn't indicative of some sort of long term health issue. Before his one major injury he had made 34 starts per 162 games for 3 years straight. It is one big injury that is making him 'injury prone'. Just seems weird to me.

 

It is like being worried about Halladay getting hurt because he got hit by line drives twice or Hardy because he got hurt sliding into home the year after he hurt his shoulder. You worry about them recovering from those injuries but once they are over them you don't expect more to come.