Confidence in Melvin

[bklynbrewcrew]

Is anyone besides me losing confidence in Doug Melvin. I realize its early in the offseason but hearing that Melvin is looking into guys like Jason Kendall, Pedro Feliz, and Tadahito Iguchi is making me very nervous. Melvin said he was looking for OBP guys and then he admits interest in Feliz who has a career OBP below 300. Kendall is one of the only catchers that is just as unimpressive defensively as Estrada and probably worse offensively. Iguchi has said that he doesnt want to move off second base and last time I checked we had a really great young player at second in Rickie Weeks. Guys like Kendall, Feliz, and Iguchi wouldnt be upgrades to what we currently have at all, in fact they would be downgrades. Throw in the fact that Cordero is basically gone and Melvin seems to be looking at the likes of Herges and Hawkins as bullpen replacements for Cordero and Linebrink and I can see this team taking major steps back next season. Yes I realize that maybe I am panicking so early in the offseason without any actual moves taking place but I am seriously concerned that Melvin is on his way to ruining this team. Am I the only one this concerned?

[naivin]

I know it is the thoughest thing to do, even for teams with unlimited $$$, but my only concern with Melvin right now is his ability to assemble a pitching staff that can compete for a WS. Seems to be his shortcoming over the history of his time as a GM. I have the utmost confidence in his ability to field a competitive line-up, but pitching seems to be the only thing he has yet to prove, and I readlily admit that is going to be difficult in Milwaukee.

[Invader3K]

It's not really time to panic until an actual deal takes place.

 

I hope the general level of players discussed steps up a bit. The likes of Feliz and Iguchi aren't that exciting. Of course, we had to wait 'til Christmas Eve last year to hear about the Suppan signing, so we may have a bit of a wait on our hands again (though I kind of hope not).

[whynotthebrewers]

Am I the only one this concerned?

 

Yes. These are all just talks and they are role players. You make it sound like these would be starters and would have a big role on the team. I think we make one big splash for someone and fill one of the few holes we have. But losing confidence over this? Easy there.

[Brian the Automator]

Yes I realize that maybe I am panicking so early in the offseason without any actual moves taking place but I am seriously concerned that Melvin is on his way to ruining this team. Am I the only one this concerned?

I'd be concerned if I believed quotes to the media had any bearing on actual plans. They really haven't in the past. If anything, what he says to the media usually contradicts his actual moves. I don't think it's a coincidence.

http://www.badastronomy.com/pix/bablog/2006/DontPanic.jpg

 

 

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah, I think you're assuming that those three guys are being looked at as starters, when the Brewers could be looking at them to fill the Graffy/Miller roles.

[pitchleague]

I'm not concerned at all. Just disappointed that this year's free agent class is pretty abysmal (again) so if DM is going to sign anybody it's not going to be some superstar. I'll be very concerned, however, if it becomes January and we still haven't signed anybody/traded for somebody.

[RightFieldCoder]

Or maybe DM is in talks to trade for a big name player, but is throwing those names out there as a bluff. And if he keeps talking Kendall, maybe the other teams won't notice when he comes in and signs La Duca.

 

Look at the list of players we were "after" last year, and then we were blind sided by the Davis/Estrada trade. I expect something similar. However, I will panic if we do actually sign those guys.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

It's not really time to panic until an actual deal takes place.

I agree with this but if any of these rumors have a grain of truth I am going to be concerned... it is starting to seem to me that Melvin spends the offseason overreacting to the woes of the previous season. 2006 saw injuries that left us short of infield talent, forcing trades for Graffy and David Bell? OK, we'll solve that by giving Craig Counsell a ridiculous contract and assuring that Graffy won't leave.

 

At the time, I thought the Suppan signing was an overreaction to the previous season's pitching woes, as well, but it turns out it was probably necessary to avoid yet another disaster this season.

 

 

 

[Roscoe Chill]

I'm not concerned about the ability of Doug Melvin as much as I am concerned about what's actually out there for Doug Melvin to take the next step with this team...there's not much. And when they lose Cordero, this team has taken a huge step backward right from the start. I think Melvin will reach on someone not very good, and it won't really be his fault.

 

And the shame of it is, that the Brewers actually have some money to spend, WANT to spend some money, and there just doesn't seem to be a lot of 'fits' out there to what the Brewers need.

 

UNLESS...you trade Ben Sheets, which in my opinion is going to be the only way to ADD enough value to make the team better than last year. Other than a couple relievers of course.

[Invader3K]

I'm all for parting with someone like Sheets (as painful as that might be) to make the team significantly better in 2008.

[sbrylski]

Melvin is probably talking to a whole host of players. These are just the one's that the media caught wind of.

[TheBrewer]

While yes it's the prospects Fielder, Hart, etc that have brought this team up from the grave, at the same time what Melvin has done for this organization is not a question. He finds the scrappy pickups and helps us big time, Brady Clark, had one impressive year, helped us alot, Doug Davis, Scotty Po.. Po brought us C. Lee. As far as pitching, I really wouldn't complain about our pitching or his lack of giving us a good starting five. I think he's tried his best, and any other GM would've done the same.

[trwi7]

TheBrewer wrote:

I really wouldn't complain about our pitching or his lack of giving us a good starting five. I think he's tried his best, and any other GM would've done the same.

 

I would. His job is to put a good team on the field, that includes pitching. Yeah I'm sure he tried his best but if I go into work and don't do a competent job on a task I don't get a pass by saying I tried my best, I get fired.

[brewmann04]

I am Glad Melvin has not jumped into NS WATED MONEY ON THIS WEAK DRAFT CLASS.

I think we have to reserve Judgement until we see what Doug does via the trade Route.

[Scooter1027]

TheBrewer wrote:

I really wouldn't complain about our pitching or his lack of giving us a good starting five. I think he's tried his best, and any other GM would've done the same.

I would. His job is to put a good team on the field, that includes pitching. Yeah I'm sure he tried his best but if I go into work and don't do a competent job on a task I don't get a pass by saying I tried my best, I get fired.

I actually think we have a chance to put a pretty good starting 5 out there next year if we leave things as is. Citing Jeff Sackmann's 2006 article about average starting pitcher performance, the average NL starting pitchers (by rotation slot) did the following (by ERA, in 2006):

 

#1 3.51

#2 4.04

#3 4.57

#4 5.11

#5 6.26

 

Now look at the starters whom I believe could/should be our starting 5 assuming no major changes (such as a Sheets or Cappy trade):

 

#1 Sheets, 2007 ERA 3.82

#2 Gallardo, 2007 ERA 3.67

#3 Villanueva, 2007 ERA 3.94

#4 Suppan, 2007 ERA 4.62

#5 Capuano, 2007 ERA 5.10

 

Of course there are several assumptions there, a big one being health, and not just with Sheets. As soon as you start having to plug in 6-7-8 type SP, your ERAs will start to regress towards league averages a bit more. Another assumption of course is that Villanueva will be in the rotation.

 

But, that looks pretty good on paper assuming those 5 can stay within a reasonable margin of their 2007 performance, plus or minus. You've got 2 young guys in Yo! and CV who could in theory improve, and another guy in Cappy who I don't think will be that bad again, maybe more mid-4s ish. It's also good to have depth like Bush and Parra, who could step in and perform above #4/#5 SP averages.

[logan82]

Even our 6-7-8 guy could fill in the 4th and 5th spots ERA wise.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

Brooklyn:

 

I'm always somewhat confident in Doug, but it's always good to retain a big dose of skepticism, just to be safe.

 

OK, so we now have a crater in LF, an iffy catching situation, an iffier bullpen, and plenty of sluggers, but they're hitting solo shots. I hope DM tried to address that last part by getting ducks to go onto the pond, so these solo shots turn into at least 2-run homers, but when names like Kendall, Feliz, etc. are being considered, then OBP doesn't seem to be a priority.

 

I, too. consider CoCoCo gone. Houston wants him, they opened a spot for him by dumping Lidge, they have lots more money than we do, and he won't reply back to us. Choate is an aging, submarining Mike Myers type; i.e., not a closer. Unless we move Villanueva to that role, we'll need a closer desperately. If Corder takes a hike, along with Menchkins off the payroll, that's between $15-20 million to play with. But will anyone TAKE our money? Who can be our 2008 version of Suppan? A veteran free agent who'll take our cash, even if he's nothing special. I wonder...

 

I also HOPE Estrada will be much closer to 100% healthy in 2008, but I doubt it, and I suspect Doug does too. Otherwise, he's at least GM-Speak to the media that "Johnny will be our starting catcher in 2008!!" If we don't even get that, and DM's kicking the tires on a Jason Kendall *shudder*, then JE's a backup at best. If we can get any free agent catcher to take our money, I'd want Torrealba (good value, solid glove and arm), then LoDuca (expensive, though), then Barrett (OK bat, but that's all).

 

Another question I'd have, of Doug:

 

Why give up already on Braun at 3B? When Rickie was so godawful defensively, we were told he wouldn't be moved, and that he was young and can improve. Hall in center field? "He'll get the hang of it." Why not the same consideration for Ryan? A slugging 3B is tough to come by. So's a slugging middle infielder, like Hall. But all Doug seems to want to do, is to take these rare commodities, and make them *yawn* just a couple of outfielders.

 

THAT will make you a little skeptical, Brooklyn...

[EinhornIsFinkle]

Why give up already on Braun at 3B? When Rickie was so godawful defensively, we were told he wouldn't be moved, and that he was young and can improve.

Are you suggesting that Rickie weeks is no longer awful defensively? He might no longer make as many errors but he still can't throw and has zero range.

 

[TheBrewer]

"TheBrewer wrote:

I really wouldn't complain about our pitching or his lack of giving us a good starting five. I think he's tried his best, and any other GM would've done the same. "

 

"trwi7 wrote:

"I would. His job is to put a good team on the field, that includes pitching. Yeah I'm sure he tried his best but if I go into work and don't do a competent job on a task I don't get a pass by saying I tried my best, I get fired. "

 

 

If you want me to continue it on since you obviously didn't get it, it's that any other GM in Doug's shoes with the tools Doug has, the payroll doug has, I really don't think that they could've done better. Doug has formed a pretty good pitching staff, at times yes they've dissapointed, such as Cappy last year(past season), but who would've seen that coming? Suppan I still believe is a decent signing, it's not all about the stats, it's about those intangeables too that he brings to the table. Unless a different GM were to take a competely different approach, such as trading X young player for a stud pitcher etc. I think what Doug has done is possibly the best anyone could have done. Now thats not to say that their are no weaknesses, or no holes, no things that he or we don't regrett doing, but not everything is going to work out to plan perfectly.

 

As far as how they let Weeks stay at 3B and Braun moving to LF is an option. It's funny how for I swear everyone on this board wanted to move Braun to the OF before Doug made this comment, now people are questioning it. You have to remember that the Brewers are in a win-now mode too vs. when Weeks was developing. Another item to note is the fact that it's not a foregone conclusion that he's moving to the OF. I would imagine that if Doug finds a great OF that fits what he's looking for Braun will be at 3B. If he can't, and or he finds a super stud 3B that fits what he's looking for he'll move Braun to the OF. But I would imagine again that finding an OF is his number one priority. I also believe that Doug and Ned firmly believe Braun is going to work on his defense completely throughout the off-season.

[logan82]

A lot of people questioned moving Braun, despite his defensive shortcomings, off of 3B after only one season in the big leagues.

[danzig6767]

Another question I'd have, of Doug:

 

Why give up already on Braun at 3B? When Rickie was so godawful defensively, we were told he wouldn't be moved, and that he was young and can improve. Hall in center field? "He'll get the hang of it." Why not the same consideration for Ryan? A slugging 3B is tough to come by. So's a slugging middle infielder, like Hall. But all Doug seems to want to do, is to take these rare commodities, and make them *yawn* just a couple of outfielders.

 

Geno, i can't speak for Doug, but my rational for possibly moving Braun to left or right would be

1.We aren't in a rebuilding mode, a window is open right now for a playoff berth. If Braun is a trainwreck again this year at third, it could cost a few games in what very well could be a tight playoff race fr the Brewers. If this was the Brewers under Lopes where not finishing last was the goal, sitting back and letting Braun learn while he butchers numerous plays at third would be no real big deal. Now in 2008, each game matters alot.

 

2.Go to yahoo stats and look at the hitting numbers for thirdbaseman in baseball last year and then those in LF, there is no big gulf at all. It's not like moving a guy from 2nd/SS to left where it drastically reduces the value of that players hitting stats.

3.Another reason i find moving Braun to the outfield appealing is that he's not some slow footed guy like a Lowell, Ramirez, or Chipper Jones. If Braun shows an ability to judge flyballs off the bat, he potentially could be a very good defensive LF/RF. He's quite fast and has a strong arm, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he became an above average or even top notch defensive outfielder. If that happened, he'd then go from being a great bat, but liability in the field to a great bat and asset in the field.

Keep in mind that Braun wasn't just some rookie who struggled a bit in the field last year. Braun didn't just struggle, he was a terrible terrible defensive player. He has a ways to go before he can be simply a bad defender at third. Given all the factors involved, i can't see how any GM wouldn't at the very least consider moving Braun to the outfield even if it doesn't end up happening.

 

[monty57]

Some of Melvin's latest moves haven't worked out as I may have liked, but I still have faith in him. I don't see the Brewers improving much off of this free agent class. They won't pick up free agents that will account for their free agent losses of Coco, Linebrink or even Jenkins, and I'd be upset if we lost our first round pick by signing someone who isn't as good as those we've lost. Therefore, Doug will earn his keep by filling the holes at relief pitcher / closer, LF and possibly Catcher through trades.

He has some valueable trading chips this offseason, as two of Bush, Capuano and Vargas should be dealt. Starting pitching is a valueable commodity, and all three of these guys are still in arby and they have pretty good track records. Turning these guys into relievers will do nothing but lessen their value. We also have some tradeable prospects, and we should have some monetary flexibility. Add all of this together, and I think we'll see a big move or two that will land us a young, talented LF and the relief help we all crave.

As an added bonus, we will potentially have three first round picks and two sandwich picks, depending on who eventually signs Coco and Linebrink. I have a tremendous amount of faith in Jack Z to turn these picks into a large part of our future.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

".We aren't in a rebuilding mode, a window is open right now for a playoff berth. If Braun is a trainwreck again this year at third, it could cost a few games in what very well could be a tight playoff race fr the Brewers."

 

I see your point, danzig, but to me, I expect us to lose more games by still having Ned around, than Braun can cost us with some errors.

 

It's odd that otherwise intelligent, baseball-savvy guys like Mark, Doug and Tor Johnson watch Ned give us another major 2nd half collapse, and before the season even ends, they express confidence and assure the safety of his position as manager....and it's even more surprising that it's coming in 2008, as you correctly note, during an ultra-rare window of playoff opportunity, and not 2002, when the Cardinals and Astros aren't strong, and the Brewers are.

 

For me, Braun at 3B can butcher some more plays and continue to be a bad defender and cost us, say 2-3 games (or, godforbid, he just might improve in his 2nd season). But if you're hypnotized by Ned, whose moves cost us at least 6 or 7 last season, and don't even think about fixing THAT area of our team, then I remain skeptical.

[Ennder]

Weeks is still one of the worst defensive 2B in baseball. Pointing to Weeks as an example of why we should not move Braun is standing on shaky ground. In fact Weeks defense at 2B is a big part of the problem, Hardy is slightly above average, Fielder is sligthly below average and Weeks is terrible. That means even with an average defensive 3B we are a below average IF. Throw in Braun's defense and we probably have one of he worst defensive IF in baseball(thankfully the marlins are even worse!).