Brewers interested in Pedro Feliz

[pogokat]

I just think if Doug wanted Ensberg, he would have grabbed him offf of waivers last fall...or signed him already...

 

i think somethings wrong with th ensberg...i havent heard his name all offseason...methinks he's not going to be a starter option...

 

if anything, that mailbag from mccalvy shows why the brewers were talking to tad iguchi and pedro feliz

 

and really, feliz would be a good signing because he can be a bench guy...if the brewers bring in no one and braun's defense has not improved, then its a tough spot...but if they sign feliz and braun has to be moved in may, then they've got an ok option...

[Gopher74]

This is what I'm talking about. Insane asking prices which actually hurt our team more than help it. So the question is do you sign Ensberg for cheap for a couple years who provides a solid OBP and decent defense or do you give up someone like Hart to get a Crede or Blalock? The answer to me is easy, take Ensberg and run, especially considering the injury issues Blalock and Crede have, same goes for Rolen. If they want one of our excess starting pitchers (Cappy, Bush or Vargas) then by all means go ahead and make the trade but it sounds like they're asking for a hell of a lot and that just isn't worth it for us.

 

 

Well that article certainly does effectively end any argument or discussion regarding Ensberg over Crede. That's absolutely ridiculous. Corey Hart for two inferior players who are older and who are major injury concerns?

 

That's beyond absurd.

I guess I thought the Sox would want a guy like Bush who is still cheap, has upside, and could be someone they could pencil in the 4th spot for the next couple years. I didn't realize they wanted a 5-tool potential 30/30 OF'er who we control for 5 more years.

[TooLiveBrew]

you're assuming that Ensberg's OBP is going to come back.

 

Gopher, the funny thing here is to check his stats once joining SD - almost 100% in line with his career 'norms'. Whatever happened in Hou., imho is more accurately treated as an anomaly, kind of like Kendall's BB/K rate in Oak. this past season. Just a guess, as I happen to expect Kendall to perform much closer to his career #s than the odd, out-of-whack tallies from 2007. I know not everyone feels that way.

TLB, you'll trump me on looking up & understanding fielding stats beyond fielding % every time. So you can probably somehow disprove with stats anything I'm about to suggest.

 

Let me first say that I honestly feel I have only a rudimentary understanding of any of the newer metrics... especially defense.

Two themes seem to recur in your posts with great frequency in this thread with which I disagree:

 

This is gonna be fun... as for feeling like you should disagree with me, kudos for seeing the light! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

1. Defense trumps most any offensive consideration in the options the Brewers could/should entertain.

 

This is not what I think. However, it does get at what I feel is the single biggest way in which the Brewers can improve both offensively & defensively for 2008 - Braun to LF. Even though adding someone like, say, Andre Ethier in LF appears on the surface to be the better/best choice... making sure that Braun's offense is not cancelled out by bad D is even more important. Which leads into...

 

2. In spite of your last comment above, it seems you don't believe Braun to be capable of any sort of meaningful defensive improvement at 3B

This is also not an accurate representation of what I believe. I don't think he is capable of any sort of meaningful defensive improvement in 2008. This coming season is arguably (and I am convinced it will be) the best shot the Brewers will have to win the NL Central. The Cards are a virtual non-factor, the Astros & Pirates are years away from being serious players; the Reds are improved but still full of questions, and the Cubs are basically the same roster (at this point) plus Fukudome (who, though unproven in MLB, will be a great addition barring a major injury).

 

In short, 2008 is not the year to hope that Braun can improve to the point where his D at 3B doesn't cancel out his fine offense entirely. He managed to negate roughly 75% of his O with awful D in 2007, and that was as lights-out an offensive season as anyone could have forseen for Ryan.

 

Rickie Weeks has gotten appreciably better over his first 2 years. I'm not suggesting Braun will turn into Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, or even Corey Koskie defensively at 3B. But the guy is young enough, athletic enough, and talented enough to become a league-average defensive 3B. I'm more interested and willing to let him grow toward that at 3B than to have him start over again (as he did at 3B from SS at U of Miami) by moving to LF.

 

The Weeks comp is really useful (& similar to the mention of Valentin) - the Brewers weren't on the cusp of contending seriously like we are now when Rickie came up. Now we are, so to throw caution (and nearly every scout's opinion on Braun) to the wind and hope he can be even a below-average fielder (which would represent one of the single greatest year-to-year improvements with the leather... ever), imho, is really asking for trouble.

 

In summary, I am fully confident that Ryan Braun can someday be as good as 'average' at 3B - he has all the physical tools, much like Rickie at 2B. But Rickie - as bad as he has/d been - started his ascent of the defensive spectrum at his position much higher than Ryan (unfortunately) has. However, 2008 - a year in which the stars have aligned themselves very much in favor of the Crew's chances to take down the NL Central (& an automatic playoff berth) - is not the year to let Braun improve from 'unbelievably atrocious' to 'bad.' In the long term, it may be valuable, but we don't have that luxury anymore. I'm never suggesting that a move to LF would be permanent.

 

In summary, to get back to the original point of the thread, I think the Brewers still need to aim high as they look at LFers or 3B to try to acquire. To me, Morgan Enseberg & Pedro Feliz just do not amount to aiming high.

 

No, neither guy is the equivalent of locking up the division title, but having either guy at 3B makes Braun's value that much higher in 2008. Since Feliz provides incredible D, & Ensberg strong OBP, I'm in favor of either one over Braun at 3B in 2008. For my preference of the two, it's Ensberg, since he plays solid to good D, and brings awesome OBP. Fwiw, my first choice is probably Adrian Beltre... but due to the 'we have to give to get' mention that trwi7 is making, I think Ensberg holds more value (since he's a FA).

I'll also assert what some may feel is heresy around here: While fielding % doesn't tell the whole story about a player's defense, it sure tells a whole lot more about it than BA does about his offense

 

Sure, but that analogy doesn't really do anything to further what FLDG% has to do with representing defense. Guys that get to more balls will make more errors - that's not opinion or my hunch, that's just a fact. The prime example is David Wright - if you evaluate him by FLDG%, he's not anything incredible. But when you also include how many other plays he can make that few 3B can, he sets himself apart from nearly every 3B in MLB.

 

FLDG% tells you one thing, and one thing only - how many errors were made from how many chances. That's it. What it fails to take into account is how often a guy like Wright helps his team/saves runs by converting plays that only two or three other guys could handle. It's still just one chance & one out. See what I mean?

[RobertR]

My thoughts on Crede.

Most players peak from 27 to 30. As a 27 year old he put up a 96 OPS+ and as a 28 year old he put up a 107 OPS+. If he's healthy, an OPS+ around 100 should be the expectation and that's certainly very acceptable. Kenny Williams is also shopping him as it's clear that he wants Josh Fields at third. As much as I'd like, say, Beltre, it does the Brewers no good if he's not on the market.

A .320-ish OBP, even if not ideal, is a lot better than you'd get from Feliz. And there are no guarantees you'd get any more offense out of Ensberg.

Crede isn't an ideal choice and even thinking about acquiring him hinges on his health, but he's available and the Sox probably aren't going to pull the "we can't trade him within the division" games of the Cardinals. He might not be the best option but he might be the best option at the price the Brewers are willing to pay.

Robert

[Fatter than Joey]

No matter how good his defense is, the upgrade to Feliz' glove cannot come close to offsetting the significant step down it would be to add Feliz's offense.

 

I think TLB does a good job addressing your concerns. I will just add on a little to this statement.

 

1.) Pedro Feliz is not anyones Plan A.

 

2.) If we look at what we have now -- and we slide Felix to 3rd and Braun to LF -- Felix is replacing a Gross/Dillon combo in the lineup. Given the upgrade in defense I think that it is a good move.

 

3.) When you leave Braun at 3rd -- you are really gambling on 2 things.

 

a.) Braun's Defense improves.

b.) Braun doesn't regress at all to the mean.

 

Regarding (b) Braun has to hit like he did last year to have an overall positive impact. Is it possible that Braun has a ~1.500 OPS against LHP in 2008? sure. Is it likely, no.

 

Regarding (a) Jenkins and Weeks are thrown in as examples of players that improved, and while they did, they did it over the course of 2-3 seasons, and the Brewers sucked. It's official, the Brewers no longer suck, and our window is there for us. We just can't assume that teams like the Cardinals or Astros are going to be bad in 2010 when Braun could maybe be a league average 3b.

[DrWood]

Sure, but that analogy doesn't really do anything to further what FLDG% has to do with representing defense. Guys that get to more balls will make more errors - that's not opinion or my hunch, that's just a fact. The prime example is David Wright - if you evaluate him by FLDG%, he's not anything incredible. But when you also include how many other plays he can make that few 3B can, he sets himself apart from nearly every 3B in MLB.

 

FLDG% tells you one thing, and one thing only - how many errors were made from how many chances. That's it. What it fails to take into account is how often a guy like Wright helps his team/saves runs by converting plays that only two or three other guys could handle. It's still just one chance & one out. See what I mean?

Actually, Wright is a really bad example, since he gets to about as many balls as an average 3b. your argument would work for a guy like Ryan Zimmerman, though.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

That's not what I'd seen, Dr. Wood - though I agree that Zimmerman is a fine fielder. By all accounts I've read, Wright led the NL in OOZ plays at 3B, and no one else comes close. Care to explain why you're saying he only gets to an average number of balls? It doesn't appear to be accurate, just on first glance.

[DrWood]

based on ZR, middle of the pack.

[TooLiveBrew]

Zone rating doesn't tell you how much he gets to that others don't, though. That was my example. He's middle of the pack in RZR too, but when you add in his OOZ, it's clear he makes plays that other guys can't... but he also misses some plays others make. Wright's no gold glover (but he'll probably win one at some point due to his O), but I still think he's a great example of why FLDG% is misleading.

 

Fwiw, I think ZR is quite flawed (as are most defensive metrics), and prefer to use RZR & something like FRAA.

[twobrewers]

1.) Pedro Feliz is not anyones Plan A.

 

2.) If we look at what we have now -- and we slide Felix to 3rd and Braun to LF -- Felix is replacing a Gross/Dillon combo in the lineup. Given the upgrade in defense I think that it is a good move.

 

3.) When you leave Braun at 3rd -- you are really gambling on 2 things.

 

a.) Braun's Defense improves.

b.) Braun doesn't regress at all to the mean.

FTJ and I agree?!?

That is a great way to put it FTJ. Now that the bullpen is fixed (at least hopefully), I would like all of the attention turned to finding a 3B to replace Braun. Leaving him at 3B is a huge gamble - one I think a contending team cannot make. And do you really think Gross/Dillon are going to hit that much better than Feliz would? (Don't forget, if Braun is moved off of 3B - Dillon can also take some starts there when more offense is needed)

 

Is Feliz my first choice? No. However, if it takes Corey Hart to acquire Blalock, Crede, Rolen or Beltre - then I will gladly take Feliz!

 

Regarding Ensberg - he scares me. If he was what his numbers suggest - he would have been snatched up awhile ago. Me thinks all of the GMs know more than we do.

[Big Reed]

I'd love to add Blalock or Crede. but, in no way would I part with Hart to acquire either player. i think that writer was a little misleading. I truly believe the brewers have had a lot of inquiries concerning hart. however, I think both the White Sox and rangers would have offered melvin a lot more than just Crede or blalock for him. You could make the case that hart is a lot like former oakland's OF Swisher. I would have to believe the White Sox offered the brewers the same package as they offered Oakland for Swisher.

 

I can agree that the White Sox and rangers may have asked for Hart as part of a deal, but I have to believe it was not a one for one deal and that the brewers would have received several top prospects as part of the deal in addition to Blalock or Crede.

 

I would deal Hall for Blalock or Crede, but not Hart. i would deal Hart for the Rangers' Young. Marcus giles' name was in the news again generating interest from the rockies. Could he play third?

[dadofandrew]

No way they have any interest in trading 3 years of Hall for one of Crede.

 

Giles certainly is not an upgrade over Gross.

[RobertR]

I wouldn't deal Hall for Crede either. Vargas? Sure. Gwynn? Sure. Capuano? Maybe. Mota? Sure. Toss in Zach Jackson for something else in return? Probably. I can't imagine Kenny Williams is looking at his team and going "Nick Swisher makes us favorites". At the very least he has to shore up the back end of the rotation/bullpen. The Brewers actually match up pretty well with Chicago.

 

Robert

[pogokat]

i wonder if the package given to the a's is what the brewers were looking at for corey hart...those two arms and crede instead of sweeney makes sense to me...there's virtually no way thesox are still looking fr an outfielder after acquiring swish...

[Big Reed]

pogo- I would agree, the sox probably made a similar offer for Hart. and they probably replaced Sweeney's name with Crede's. looking at the brewers' pitching, i think i might have asked for Sweeney and Crede and 1 pitching prospec t for hart. Sweeney is supposed to be a great CF - something the Brewers would like to have. Crede would fill the third base hole. and you'd have an outfield of hall, Sweeney and Braun. Somebody pointed out they wouldn't trade hall for one year of Crede. i would think if the brewers acquired Crede they would not have much of a problem signing him to an extension. So I don't really buy the idea that a trade for crede would only be for one year of his services.

 

a question comes to my mind of the direction Melvin wants to go to solve the third base / left field problem. it appeared that melvin wanted to go the high road and sign an expensive quality player to fill the hole short term.. he had talks with the orioles for tejada, with the cards for rolen and supposedly with oakland for Chavez. he's also had talks with the Dodgers and some other teams about acquiring a young quality leftfielder. to me this says melvin is looking for a short term quality solution to the problem.

 

I was thinking about the possibility of going after the unproven guy, or the super utility guy and transforming him into a starter. the reds turned freel into a starter. Derosa went from super utility guy to starter. Figgins went from super utility to starter. gantner went from utility man to starter. Council went from utility man to starter to utility man to starter to utility man. hammonds was essentually the Rockies' 4th outfielder who got extended atbats the year before the brewers signed him because of other injuries to rockies outfielders. he should have remained a 4th outfielder. jeremy reed is the mariners' 4th outfielder, but could start for some teams. Wiggins is kind of the Angels' 4th outfielder . Hall went from super utility man to starter. Feliz is more of a utility player than actual starter. brandon phillups went from bench player to starter. kelly Johnson and theriot both went from being utility guys to starting. there are many other examples of clubs turning utility guys into starters, and that player succeeding. Could the brewers be turning their attention to acquiring a utility guy and hoping he can become a starter? or does it seem more likely that melvin will go after a big name player?

 

another question that pops to mind. We keep saying how we want to move braun to left and find a third baseman. What are the possibilities of moving Weeks or hardy over to third and turning our interest into acquiring a second baseman or shortstop instead? Who would make the better outfielder? Weeks or braun? A lot of brewers have changed positions in the past with a lot of success. Molitor, Yount, Sheffield, gantner and Don Money all made the transistion with great success. Few people remember Don Money starting out his major league career as a shortstop. Ripken, Pete rose, AROD and Joe torre all did Ok with a move to play third. While I think the pursuit of a quality third baseman is a good one, i think the addition of a guy like brian Roberts or freddy Sanchez may be a smarter plan than trying to acquire rolen. felipe Lopez could be available. I also know there are some second basemen still available as free agents. I'd rather sign marcus giles than Ensberg.

 

with all that said, i wouldn't mind the brewers picking up Chad tracey or casey blake to play third either. i just don't want to see the brewers giving up hart to make these ideas happen.

[twobrewers]

Could the brewers be turning their attention to acquiring a utility guy and hoping he can become a starter? or does it seem more likely that melvin will go after a big name player?

I don't foresee the Brewers experimenting with a 3B. If they are going to move Braun, they have to feel really good that they have adaquate cover at 3B - not someone who might be able to handle the job.

[Gopher74]

with all that said, i wouldn't mind the brewers picking up Chad tracey or casey blake to play third either. i just don't want to see the brewers giving up hart to make these ideas happen.

Chad Tracy is a guy that I've liked for a couple years now.

 

James projects him to be a .285/.353/.832 guy with 17 and 69. He'd likely be a platoon player as he's hit .308/.371/.879 vs right handers, but just .222/.271/.608 vs left handers, which is fine with Joe Dillon.

 

I don't know that he's a number 2 type hitter(though with a .370 OBP vs right handers, he could well be), but he's that left handed bat we've been looking for. He's not going to win any gold gloves at 3rd base, and the issue becomes what do we give the D-backs who certainly don't need pitching right now, but with Renyolds at 3rd and Connor Jackson at 1st with Tony Clark spelling him from time to time, they certainly have little use for Tracy.

 

Again, I just can't think what might interest the D-backs. I guess they could go for Cappy as an insurance policy for Randy Johnson, but they've got Webb, Haren, Davis and Owings.

 

Maybe they could use a left handed bat for the bench(Gabe Gross), and some insurance in their rotation, or a left hander in the pen(Capuano).

 

I don't know, but a Tracy/Dillon platoon at 3rd base wouldn't cost too much, either financially, or in terms of players.

 

[dadofandrew]

Tracy will not be dealt until he shows is recovered from surgery.