Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

Brewers sign Jason Kendall -- 1 year/$4.25 mil guaranteed, up to 2 years/$10.25 mil possible

splitterpfj

By splitterpfj,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

MNBrew First Round Pick

MNBrew

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Toss his 2007 Oakland stats aside and a general overview of Kendall's career shows he's not as crappy as so many on this board make him out to be. It seems that other than questions about his CS rate, the main knock on him is that his OPS isn't great. But you know, not everyone is a power hitter and Kendall's never going to have a Fielder-like SLG, which means unless he walks at a Barry Bonds or Frank Thomas rate, his OPS won't ever be great. But looking at his career hitting stats...

 

- Even with last year he has a .297 career BA.

- He has decent doubles power.

- He has a lot of double-digit SB years, the most recent in either '05 or '06.

- He walks at a decent rate and strikes out less than he walks.

 

That tells me that he's not the poor player several in this discussion have made him out to be.

 

Now, I sure hope they don't break the bank or give him too many years. But if they went out and got Jason Kendall, then at worst Johnny Estrada becomes another decent, usable bargaining chip this offseason because someone is likely to be willing to deal with his arbitration status. And as has been stated so many times, there are an awful lot of teams out there whose catching situation would still be greatly upgraded by Johnny Estrada.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 330
  • Created
  • Last Reply
rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
If you take a weighted average of 50/35/15 for the last 3 years, kendell has a .330 OBP and a SLG not even worth mentioning. If we are talking about $2 - $3 mil/year for two years. Fine. Anything north of $5 mil/year or 2 years and I'm really going to start questioning Melvin's thinking.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
PeaveyFury Biloxi Shuckers

PeaveyFury

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

Obviously, if they sign a guy and dump Estrada, then that's totally wrong, but I'm predicting that doesn't happen. JMO, of course.

 

And, let the record show, my opinion was completely wrong.

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
splitterpfj Biloxi Shuckers

splitterpfj

Community Moderator
Posted
  • Author
Posted

Here's the deal as best I can explain it, and I'll try to have more details in my story in the JS tomorrow. The Brewers want a catcher who has more energy, who is more positive, who gets along with pitching coach Mike Maddux and works well with all of the pitchers on the staff.

The Brewers aren't saying Kendall is a world beater. Basically, the just want a catcher who plays nicely in the sandbox with others.

Is it just me, or is that exactly what Arizona said a year ago?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
aracko First Round Pick

aracko

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I think that the Brewers are going to focus on making the opposing pitcher throw more pitches to get outs. Estrada was the total opposite. I would love to know - as I cant find it - what is Kendalls average pitch per at bat over the last 4 years vs Estradas over the last 4 years???? Can anyone tell me please?
Link to comment
Share on other sites
aracko First Round Pick

aracko

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Thanks Brett. There is the key. I know I heard somewhere that the Crew was going to be working on taking more pitches this season. You cant have that philosophy and then have Estrada as a nearly every day pitcher. This article says alot about the player we are getting.

 

Having a purpose at the plate

By Alan Schwarz

Special to ESPN.com

(Archive)

Updated: January 13, 2005

Email

Print

Before we begin, let's take a brief show of hands.

 

When we talk about the Most Patient Hitter in baseball, are we referring to the hitter who most frequently walks?

 

 

(Gaggle of confident hands go straight up.)

 

Fair enough. But looking at it differently, how many think that the most patient hitter is the one who takes the most pitches, either to tire a starter or give teammates a better look at him?

 

(Several hands go up more slowly.)

 

All right. Now, which of you think that patience means, whether or not the hitter ends up with a walk, he can wait calmly for his pitch, and then swing confidently?

 

(A few tentative hands rise above a sea of befuddlement.)

 

Sure enough, regardless of how much patience has become a catchphrase for modern offensive philosophy, no matter how many books or brouhahas it spawns, there still is little delineation as to what the word actually means, no linchpin from which it can sweep an arc of understanding. We sense who are baseball's Most Patient Hitters, we think we know, but when you discover that even Barry Bonds might not be nearly as patient as people think ... well, it's time to pan back a little.

 

 

Barry Bonds often gets the bat taken out of his hands when he steps to the plate.

 

"Patience means getting your pitch depending on the strategy at the moment," said one American League advance scout, making way too much sense for so early in the conversation. "It might mean getting a walk if you need baserunners. It might mean waiting for a pitch up in the zone that you can drive or low if you're a low-ball hitter. It's very situation- and individual-specific."

 

Before graduating to nuance, it's easy enough to look at a few statistics to get a broad base of how patience manifests itself. First, these are the hitters who drew the most walks per plate appearance in 2004 (all statistics among batting-title qualifiers, and courtesy of STATS Inc.):

 

Player Walks Plate app. Walks/plate app.

1. Barry Bonds 232 617 .376

2. Todd Helton 127 683 .186

3. Lance Berkman 127 687 .185

4. J.D. Drew 118 645 .183

5. Bobby Abreu 127 713 .178

 

No surprises there. But what let's tweak the definition of patience a bit to seeing the most pitches per plate appearance, whether or not the hitter eventually walks. From now on, we'll look at both the Top 5 and Bottom 5 in each category:

 

Most Pitches/PA Least Pitches/PA

1. Bobby Abreu 4.32 1. A.J. Pierzynski 3.07

2. Brad Wilkerson 4.29 2. Vladimir Guerrero 3.17

3. Casey Blake 4.26 3. Sean Casey 3.22

4. Jermaine Dye 4.25 4. Craig Biggio 3.33

5. Adam Dunn 4.24 5. Tike Redman 3.35

 

This is where things get interesting. Casey Blake and Jermaine Dye walked only 68 and 49 times last year, respectively, but their at-bats lasted the third- and fourth-longest in the game. Weird.

 

Even weirder, given that Bonds had a mammoth 232 plate appearances (a.k.a. walks) which lasted at least four pitches, and other at-bats in which he surely saw plenty of balls, how could he not wind up well over 4 on average? Amazingly, Bonds clocks in at 3.93, roughly the middle of the pack. How could that be? Is it possible that Bonds' non-walk times to the plate, which he enjoys several times a week, end earlier than average?

 

Yep. In his non-walk plate appearances, when the pitcher is presumably somewhere around the plate, Bonds waits just 3.52 pitches before ending them -- less than the major league average of 3.60. Which suggests that Bonds is considerably more eager to make contact than most people realize.

 

"It's not just that Bonds can tell a ball from a strike," one NL scout said. "He knows that if he sees a strike, it might be the only one. He'll jump on the first pitch."

 

Speaking of swinging, or in this case not swinging, here are the leaders and trailers in Percentage of Pitches Taken:

 

Most Percentage Least Percentage

1. Barry Bonds 71.9 1. Vladimir Guerrero 41.3

2. Todd Zeile 66.4 2. A.J. Pierzynski 41.6

3. D'Angelo Jimenez 65.1 3. Johnny Estrada 44.0

4. Bobby Abreu 64.9 4. Alex Gonzalez 45.5

5. Jason Kendall 64.8 5. Toby Hall 45.7

 

Then again, does patience mean taking a ball (avoiding a bad pitch) or taking a strike (to tire the pitcher and/or get a better pitch later in the at-bat)? Certainly, dangerous hitters in general see more balls, and taking them isn't necessarily a sign of pure patience, but discretion. These are the leaders in Percentage of Strikes Called:

 

Most Percentage Least Percentage

1. Todd Zeile 44.9 1. Vladimir Guerrero 8.2

2. Jason Kendall 42.4 2. A.J. Pierzynski 14.4

3. D'Angelo Jimenez 39.4 3. Jacque Jones 16.0

4. John Olerud 39.4 4. Moises Alou 16.2

5. Luis Castillo 39.4 5. Johnny Estrada 16.5

 

These are, at least more so than what we saw earlier, hitters who take pitches for the sake of taking them -- and, on the other side, swing at almost everything in the strike zone. The glaring name here is that of Jason Kendall, who was picked up by (surprise!) Billy Beane's A's this offseason.

 

"Kendall was a leadoff man, and his M.O. from (manager Lloyd) McClendon and (hitting coach Gerald) Perry was to take the first pitch and more," said the AL scout. "Some guys walk more because they're swing-and-miss guys who get deeper in counts. Kendall is the kind of guy who has no fear of getting to two strikes."

Indeed, Kendall swung at just 2.7 percent of first pitches -- by far the fewest in baseball -- and lasted 4.21 pitches per at-bat, but still walked or struck out just 101 times combined. More so than most reputedly patient hitters, the Abreus and Wilkersons and Dunns who wind up with a lot of whiffs with their walks, Kendall works deep counts before putting the ball in play on his terms.

From all these categories, it's fair to say that beyond Bonds, who is a little difficult to interpret, choosing the most patient hitters in baseball depends on how you define it. Abreu and Wilkerson see the most pitches per plate appearance; then again, they are threats enough to warrant more non-hittable pitches thrown to them. Kendall, Luis Castillo and D'Angelo Jimenez -- who can hit for average but don't slug at all -- appear to be taking the most pitches most willingly. (As for the hackers, Vladimir Guerrero, A.J. Pierzynski and Johnny Estrada tend to be the least patient. Anyone else somewhat surprised that two of those are catchers?)

 

 

Kendall

 

 

So let's leave it at this: Bonds is the Most Patient Hitter when it comes to balls, Kendall when it comes to strikes. Given that Bonds would probably be much more selective on strikes if he saw more of them, he gets our nod as the Most Patient Hitter overall.

No matter where you stand, no matter how hip patience may be today, the concept is actually far older than the modern zealots would have you believe, stretching back much further than even Ted Williams' famous mantra, "Get a good pitch to hit."

 

It's true that in baseball's earliest days -- and we mean earliest -- taking pitches was rare, even considered unmanly. "It was the unwritten law," 1870s superstar George Wright once said, "that the hitter should do his utmost to connect with the ball." Yet by 1918, long articles were popping up in Baseball Magazine with titles such as, "The Art of Working the Pitcher" and "Does It Pay to Hit the First Ball?" In the latter, primordial sabermetricians counted how often the Cincinnati Reds swung at the first pitch and rejoiced at how they'd hit .425 when doing so, glaringly misinterpreting the results. (Almost all hitters fare far better when swinging at the first pitch -- not because it's the first pitch, but because it's one they've decided they like.)

 

It wasn't even Williams who first posited the importance of waiting for a good one. Listen to Mickey Cochrane speak from the grave in his fascinating 1939 book, "The Fan's Game":

 

"Every pitcher has a best pitch. Let him get that out of his system, and unless it is a third strike, take it. Take a strike. Take two strikes to get the ball you want to hit ... Letting strikes go by when they look good is a difficult subject to discuss with anxious players. But the great hitters are the essence of patience and confidence in waiting for the ball they want."

 

Sixty-six years later, no matter how they define it, organizations are preaching patience to their minor leaguers, baking in the concept before the kiln fires. Promotions are being dictated by walk rates. Hitters learn their strike zones before their hot zones. The A's and Red Sox do this, of course, but so do many other clubs.

 

"The earlier you get to guys the better," said Chris Antonetti, Cleveland's assistant general manager. "It's the process of commanding the strike zone -- it gets you in hitters' counts and lets other things happen on the field."

 

Added Mets assistant GM Jim Duquette, "A lot starts with pitch recognition. Taking pitches has a negative connotation -- 'You're taking the bat out of my hand.' No. We're asking you to know the strike zone. When it's in there, hack at it."

 

The more you talk with baseball people, the more you get the idea that patience is, indeed, really as much about swinging as taking. It's about swinging only at the most purposeful times, whenever those may arrive.

 

Alan Schwarz is the senior writer of Baseball America and a regular contributor to ESPN.com. His new book, "The Numbers Game: Baseball's Lifelong Fascination With Statistics," is published by St. Martin's Press and can be ordered on Alan's Web site.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
colbyjack Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

colbyjack

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Kendall's career pitch/plate appearance is 3.90. Estrada's is 3.22.

 

Looking more and more at Kendall's career stats, really the only absolutely horrible season he had was last year in Oakland. He was pretty good at the plate after he was dealt to the Cubs. I remember him getting benched because he had a hard time throwing runners out, which definitely concerns me, but at least he works pitches better, draws more walks and isn't such a liability on the basepaths. He reportedly handles the pitching staff well, and is expected to play nice as Tom H points out. I just hope they don't pay him more than $3M, and as others have noted, they better find themselves a pretty good backup as well, as counting on Kendall to be the everyday catcher is not a good idea.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dadofandrew ACL Brewers

dadofandrew

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Considering Bengie Molina is making $6M and has a career line of .300/.400, I'm not sure where folks think this cheap and solid backup C is coming from. It's basically the top 3-5 guys, then guys like Estrada/Kendall/Molina, and then the "can't hit at all" variety...and that's the starters. Munson and Rivera are about as good as it gets in reserve C land, that's why Sal Fasano still finds work.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I will guess Kendall ends up at about $4M per if he does indeed sign. As I just said to an e-mailer, I don't think there's more than a victory difference between a pair of $500K/$750K guys and Kendall/Estrada. If there was ever a place to go with a minor league vet or two at league minimum, it might well be 2008 C.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Brewer Fanatic Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Brewers community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of Brewer Fanatic.

Become a Caretaker
×
×
  • Create New...