Rolen Trade, Latest: Glaus/Rolen swap (reply #795)

[MNBrew]

If this deal's bigger (and big-buck) names are Scott Rolen, Kevin Mench, & Chris Capuano, I'm not sure how the money on this would be so totally off.

 

Rolen will make $12M/yr. (avg.) for 3 years - his cost is fixed. Capuano & Mench made about $6.5M total in '07 and are both arby eligible, which should put them in the $7-8M range.

 

That's a $4-5M difference -- not too bad. And it wouldn't even eat up half of what they were about to pay Cordero per year. Riske wouldn't take up quite half, either, so there would still be a couple million to play with ("Hello, Kenny Lofton? How'd you like to be the Brewers' 4th outfielder?" Or "Hello Mark Loretta. How would you like to be the Brewers' 5th IF and first guy to start for an injured guy?").

 

How is it, then, that we don't have it in our budget to add Rolen if both Cappy & Mench are involved?

 

The other thing to me that makes this REALLY worthwhile is the resulting starting 8:

 

OF - Braun, Hall, Hart

IF - Rolen, Hardy, Weeks, Fielder

C - Kendall

 

Wow. And in the meantime you still have Parra or Bush (or hopefully not Vargas) to fill the 5th rotation spot after Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo, & Villanueva. Not shabby. The bullpen would lack star power, but there could still be a couple potential spare parts to use in other deals if so desired.

 

There's no such thing as a sure thing, but I sure like what this could do!

[dadofandrew]

Mench is not signed to a long-term deal, they could just non-tender him. Rolen has an albatross of a contract, because he has been injured and when so, ineffective. I looked at it for a while tonight, and unless Rolen is healthy AND the Brewers do not want Hall back, I do not see a match at all.

[splitterpfj]

In his Insider blog today, Buster Olney again mentions Rolen to the Brewers, with Capuano involved. He says the two sides are haggling over how much of the money St Louis will pick up, so obviously, the Cardinals realize no one is willing to absorb that whole contract.

 

He mentions Miguel Tejada as a likely target for the Cardinals if Rolen is dealt.

 

It sounds like the two sides can agree on which players to exchange, but the question is, how much money would you make St Louis pay, to get this done?

[And That]

If all they want is Capuano and Mench, the dollar total for Rolen makes sense this year, but I'd like around four-eight million for the remaining two seasons.

[1e Corbeau]

Considering that St. Louis needs to move Rolen (LaRussa/injury) more than we need to move Capuano (depth/performance), I'd want them to pick up 25 to 50% of his remaining contract. The scale would slide depending on how confident Melvin & Co. feel about Rolen's health. And, of course, who all the names involved are. If we're giving Mench, TGJ, and Capuano for Rolen/Franklin, I'd settle closer to that 25%.

 

Capuano isn't the worst, as someone recently pointed out (SoCal?), and has had some success, so it isn't like we're flipping Vargas at them. And, if TGJ is involved, he has some real value to some who like singles-hitting, great D, and HoF surnames.

 

Do teams ever build in incentives for salary portions of deals? (i.e. If Rolen started 150 games, we'd only get 10% of his salary from the Cards; if he played in 100 games, we'd get 40%.)

 

Either way, I have to admit I'm excited at the possibility of a mostly-healthy Rolen on 3B and at the dish, as well as being able to take full advantage of Braun's monstrous OPS, without the run loss of his .900 fielding percentage.

[brewers255]

Splliter whats the link to the insider blog?

[Roscoe Chill]

Getting Scott Rolen would be the ballsy move Melvin needs to make. His contract isn't THAT outrageous considering. I mean if you look at the free agent route, there aren't a lot of matches, yet the Brewers have and want to spend a little bit of money. The need in this lineup is LF...but Braun would be willing and Melvin is willing to move Braun to LF if a good 3B could be found. To me this is a perfect match. Like Andruw Jones, Rolen is exactly the type of player the Brewers should be targetting. Guys for whatever reason are available when a year or two ago, the mere mention of picking them up somehow would have been laughable.

 

Also, free agents seem to want that FOURTH year, well, in this case Rolen is only on the hook for three. I'm not sure HOW injured Rolen is or the likelihood of his injury problems occurring, but I don't think it's like he's a cripple is it? A similar case would be Mike Lowell. When the Red Sox got him, he was a salary dump, a throw in after a terrible 2005. A couple years later he's back to where he was earlier in his career, and guess what kind of contract he just signed? Hmmmm, pretty similar to what Rolen is owed.

 

I hope this possibility doesn't fall through over a couple million dollars.

 

And one more thing...I've now seen this site deem Rocco Baldelli as an injury waiting to happen (which I can understand), Scott Rolen as an injury waiting to happen, but Ben Sheets isn't? I'm not sure I get it.

[crewcrazy]

For what it's worth, a Kevin Mench/Chris Duncan platoon in LF would be pretty scary, and La Russa actually knows how to use platoons, and Gwynn could be Edmonds' eventual replacement in CF and replace Eckstein in their lineup as the singles-hitting slap hitter at the top of the order. I think it's a deal that could help both sides, but giving up Capuano to a division opponent with a good defense behind him has me a little worried.

[splitterpfj]

I can't post a link to an Insider blog, but if you have Insider, just go into MLB, Olney's blog is linked from that page.

[Oldcity]

Since Capuano has definite value, I'm with Toby. Something like 10 mil total for the three years combined would be alright.

[brewers255]

Rolen would be the perfect fit for this team. Not one year with a OBP under .320, gold glove defender, has some power and is a good run-producer. He is the perfect number 2 hitter. Weeks, Rolen, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Hall, Hardy, Kendall. That is a very good offensive lineup. Plus move Braun to LF and your defense went from below average to at worst average. Capuano, TGJ and Mench for Rolen and Franklin and the Cardinals pick up 25% of the salary. That would be the move of the off-season for the brewers.

[cooprules]

I still worry about his health. He just had surgery a few months ago. And that was to remove scar tissue. More scar tissue could develop and he'd be in the same boat. I'd love to have Rolen but only a healthy one. Obviously you can never guarantee health but it seems like the risk may be too high.

[gregmag]

Mench is not signed to a long-term deal, they could just non-tender him. Rolen has an albatross of a contract, because he has been injured and when so, ineffective. I looked at it for a while tonight, and unless Rolen is healthy AND the Brewers do not want Hall back, I do not see a match at all.

 

Al -- I don't get the Hall part of your assessment; can you clarify why you think keeping Hall would preclude picking up Rolen? This seems like an ideal move to me, except for the other factor you mentioned -- health. If Rolen can come back to anything near his previous form, his contract is very reasonable. I assume DM and company will do their due diligence on his medical condition and act accordingly.

 

Greg.

[brewcrewkid14]

I am worried about trading Capuano within a division also, but I also am excited for the prospect of Scott Rolen at third and another good arm for the bullpen.

 

I am just afraid that Duncan will solve all of Capuano's problems, and he will go on to kill us throughout his career as a result. Crewcrazy makes a great point, this wouldn't be a bad deal at all for the Cards if it went through. Although, do they have a replacement at 3B for Rolen?

 

I could see this trade ending up biting the butt of one of either the Brewers or Cardinals at the end of it all. You have to take risks though.

[splitterpfj]

Although, do they have a replacement at 3B for Rolen?

 

No, not really, which is why they have interest in Tejada if the move Rolen. The Cards just plain want Rolen gone, because he and LaRussa are done with each other. They may not get a sexy option right away, but guys like Tejada and Mora, Blalock, Crede, Chavez, might be available as short-term answers.

[jjfanec]

Did Olney say anything about Gwynn Jr being involved and if we would be getting a bullpen arm back with Rolen? If the Brewers can get a guy like Franklin with Rolen that is a trade that shores up two spots while trading from positions we have a surplus at. This seems like a Melvin type trade in that he doesnt want to create any extra holes with a trade and this would accomplish that.

If possible I would still like to see if they could get one more bullpen arm like Fuentes in a separate trade but if we trade Cappy, Gwynn and Mench here i think we dont have much left to use in a trade other than Bush and Vargas. Bush could get a nice return but I dont see why we would trade him. i dont see Vargas netting too much but I might be wrong.

[splitterpfj]

No, Olney didn't say anything beyond what I posted, just said they continue to discuss a deal involving Capuano, and are now haggling over Rolen's money.

[jwill535]

look at it this way, Cappy would only effect the Brewers for maybe 3 games a year, where as Rolen could have an effect on the Cards for all the games the Brewers/Cards play.

[wallus]

Personally this trade would hurt the Cardinals when they play us. We would have a lineup full of players who kill lefties (Capuano) and then we give them Mench who sucks against our almost for sure all right handed pitching staff. Sign me up.

[mrwisconsin]

I don't get why 2 teams in the same divison would trade with each other. Why would St Louis trade a good fielder like Rolan to a team in the same divison whos third baseman they all ready have is a poor fielder and why would we trade a starting pitcher would could win 20 games?

[DannoMac21]

So many "what-ifs" with Capuano. What if he becomes a good pitcher again? What if he continues his crappy ways with his terrible delivery? I just can't see him regaining form after the way he pitched last year. He was so awful.

[areacodes]

I don't get get why 2 teams in the same divison would trade with each other. Why would St Louis trade a good fielder like Rolan to a team in the same divison whos third baseman they all ready have is a poor fielder and why would we trade a starting pitcher would could win 20 games?

 

St. Louis sort of has their hands tied by the situation w/ Rolen and LaRussa and maybe we are the only team seriously interested or offering the best deal. I also highly doubt Cappy will win 20 games. The year he won 18 games he was quite lucky. If you look at his numbers they were very close between his '05 (18-12) and his '06 (11-12) and you could argue he pitched better in '06 as he had a better WHIP, K/BB ratio, ERA+.

 

[mrwisconsin]

What is the beef between Rolan and Tony anyway?

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't get why 2 teams in the same divison would trade with each other. Why would St Louis trade a good fielder like Rolan to a team in the same divison whos third baseman they all ready have is a poor fielder and why would we trade a starting pitcher would could win 20 games?

A lot of teams and GM's are getting away from worrying about dealing "in division", and just doing whatever it takes to make their team better, even if it helps a division rival.

 

[brettac1]

I still worry about his health. He just had surgery a few months ago. And that was to remove scar tissue. More scar tissue could develop and he'd be in the same boat. I'd love to have Rolen but only a healthy one. Obviously you can never guarantee health but it seems like the risk may be too high.

 

Well, this is kind of the risk you take. The Brewers would never be able to land a healthy Rolen with the likes of Gwynn, Mench, and Capuano, if that is indeed the deal. If they throw money in to offset some of the risk (the $8 million-ish figure sounds alright to me), I'd love to see it get done in a hurry. The team has a pretty well-respected training staff, so if they give Rolen something resembling a clean bill of health, then I think we have to just see what happens.

 

I know I'm typically a pinch-penny, but when you have the chance to buy low on a potential HOF 3B like Scott Rolen, who isn't exactly old either, you should do it. This would be one of my favorite moves of the Melvin Era, probably moving ahead of the Koskie deal.