Rolen Trade, Latest: Glaus/Rolen swap (reply #795)

[brettac1]

Well, it's not like BP is going to be behind the times, though. They have people there, so maybe it's not as dead as it was made out to be.

[TooLiveBrew]

Interesting! Thanks for the linkage, Robert.

 

Instead of concentrating on his missing horse shoe (cappy's 22 straight loses) you correct something small and pointless like the hair (coco's loss)

 

Can we please not have another W-L debate about pitchers? Especially in a thread about a possible Scott Rolen trade.

[TCSM]

actually it was an informative reply that used two examples given. I could have used different players but thought that worked best.

 

So all in all, trade capuano for Rolen please

[rluzinski]

Considering Rolen's current contract and hsi recent injury history, he has negative value. If the Cardinals want Cappy, they should pick up at least half of Rolen's contract, IMO.

 

And if I have to hear about how terrible Cappy was last year simply because "he didn't record a win in foreverzzz!!" I'm going to scream. While he obviously had a bad year, there were plenty of games that he would have won, had the offense done their part. Had Cappy simply sprinkled in 4 wins in that bad stretch, people who remember his 2007 season as simply being bad, instead of mythically terrible. He still has plenty of value, so if Melvin can't get value in return for him, he shouldn't trade him.

[fondybrewfan]

So it isnt a good idea to use wins as a basis for evaluationg a pitchers performance? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

cappy obviously wasnt very good but he certainly wasn't that bad either. All you need to do is look at the years Ben Sheets and Randy Johnson had in 2004 and it is very obvious that wins are a useless indicator. Pitchers are largly dependent on offense to get wins other factors that they have more control of are much more pertinent. But those aren't that stats ESPN shows when the talking heads discuss who deserves the Cy Young. It is always about wins.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Well, it's not like BP is going to be behind the times, though. They have people there,

 

Yesterday they reported the following:

 

Johan Santana to the Red Sox is all but done. Jon Lester, a center fielder, Justin Masterson and Ryan Kalish are the package. More details now.

 

And Will Carroll also apparently reported that the Florida / Detroit deal was off. So I'm not going to put a lot of stock in the currency or accuracy of their reporting at this point.

[Patrick425]

they should pick up at least half of Rolen's contract, IMO.

Agreed. I keep hearing people talk about the Cards picking up $6 - $8 million of what's left. That does not seem like enough to me. IMO, Rolen's shoulder issues are going to dampen his power numbers more than people think.

[fondybrewfan]

It is pretty safe to say that not a single rumor reported by any reporter for any company has been right about a single trade this winter meetings. No one picked the Detroit scenario, no one saw that coming. I am 95% certain tat 95% of the rumors reported by various websites have no validity whatsoever. They are either made up so the talking head have someting to talk about or teams or agents purposely give the media false infotmation. I mean for all the baseball knowledge Gammons has, has he ever been right about any trades at all? Usually the trades that go down are kept quiet.

[brains and braun]

Sounded to me like the Det trade went down pretty quickly, and I saw the rumor on ESPN well before it actually happened. I think it was ESPN that led BF.net to run a thread on it. At any rate, many of the rumors turn out to be false, but that's why they're rumors. Some writers/bloggers are more credible than others, but I think that their info is the next best thing to being there.

 

my two cents

phil

[PeaveyFury]

Milwaukee and St. Louis have the framework of a deal set in which the Brewers would get third baseman Scott Rolen from the Cardinals for left-hander Chris Capuano. What is holding the deal up is haggling over other players that might included in the trade, and also how much, if anything, St. Louis will pay of the $36 million left on the final three years on Rolen's contract.

 

So, they don't know what players are being included, and how much money each team is going to have to pay.

 

Exactly what "framework for the deal" is set in place, then?

 

Ugh.

[endaround]

Milwaukee and St. Louis have the framework of a deal set in which the Brewers would get third baseman Scott Rolen from the Cardinals for left-hander Chris Capuano. What is holding the deal up is haggling over other players that might included in the trade, and also how much, if anything, St. Louis will pay of the $36 million left on the final three years on Rolen's contract.

 

So, they don't know what players are being included, and how much money each team is going to have to pay.

 

Exactly what "framework for the deal" is set in place, then?

 

Ugh.

They decided on Chinese for lunch

 

[qrk10000]

...or Japanese (Iguchi).

[Patrick425]

LaRussa was interviewed on XM radio (by Billy Ripken..I think?) as I was driving home tonight. He had some interesting things to say about Rolen. He said that in every meeting that he has had with the ball club he has stated that they should not trade Rolen and it would be difficult to replace his bat in the middle of the lineup. Then he said he didn't understand where Rolen was coming from. Made it sound like it was Rolen that had the issue and not him. To paraphrase he said that Rolen has gotten "sideways" about this whole thing even though he has been treated very well by everyone in the Cardinals organizaion. Then he finished by saying like that Rolen gets paid well and I'm sure he'll be playing (whatever that means?)

[brettac1]

That's LaRussa trying to drive up Rolen's value, so that it doesn't appear that the Cards are desperate to deal him. If he were to say "we need to trade him", that would take any leverage they have away from them.

[chinabob99]

That's LaRussa trying to drive up Rolen's value, so that it doesn't appear that the Cards are desperate to deal him. If he were to say "we need to trade him", that would take any leverage they have away from them.

 

It also sounds like LaRussa being kind of a dick despite himself. He knows exactly where Rolen is coming from, they've had several specific problems over the years and at the begining of the offseason LaRussa wrote Rolen basically a public letter saying "this is what you need to do to make me like you again."

 

There is no way Rolen starts the year in St. Louis. He might not come to the Brewers, but he won't be playing for the Cards in April.

[TooLiveBrew]

It also sounds like LaRussa being kind of a dick despite himself.

 

Exactly, chinabob. Good call. That, coupled with the aforementioned trade value.

 

LaRussa : 'I don't understand where Rolen's coming from' :: Child with chocolate smeared all over face & hands : 'I don't know who ate the candy bar, but it WASN'T ME!'

[PeaveyFury]

Tom's latest, including quotes from LaRussa:

 

http://blogs.jsonline.com/brewers/archive/2007/12/05/rolen-has-to-go.aspx

 

"He needs to understand that he has slipped."

 

Um, ouch. And the Cards AREN'T motivated to trade him?

[sbrylski]

"Um, ouch. And the Cards AREN'T motivated to trade him?"

 

Um, exactly Cardinals, he's slipped and injured. That's why you won't get a top prospect for him.

[dpapo]

I guess I'll do my best to try to keep this rumor going, http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Here is what Joe Strauss from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has had to say today about this,

 

Strauss on 1380 ... * TLR is emphatic that this is a better team with Rolen, and he doesn't care whether Rolen likes him or not. Basically: Rolen will be put into the lineup when he's healthy to play, and if he doesn't like it, then he can retire/quit. * El Diablo (Strauss) says at one point he though it was 80 percent chance of Rolen being moved ... now thinks its more like 80 percent that he'll stay. * Thinks they're sniffing around on Bedard ... Cliff Lee is a last-resort option. * Revisiting Tejada ... * Thinks they may still have another conversation with Milwaukee (Rolen). * Cardinals ratcheting up interest in FA starting pitcher and a FA outfielder...Cardinals are setting some up some things that may reach fruition next week.

I'll add some more.... (not me, but another person on the forum who also heard the interview)

 

Very good interview with lots of good info....

 

Here are some things he said:

 

* There Is some buzz the Cards and Brewers could meet one more time to discuss Rolen before they leave the winter meetings.

 

* Not a ton of interest in Lee. Aiming for higher pitchers.

 

* They continue to have talks with the Orioles about Bedard and Tejada. They have gotten further with them than they were a few days ago.

 

* Dodgers are interested in Rolen, but aren't crazy about him or anything.

 

* Cardinals have their eye on an impact pitcher and an impact bat. Strauss says they are looking at a pitcher and hitter in free agency... didn't say who. Hmmm....

 

* Cardinals visualize Rolen on their team next season. Say 80% chance that he stays. Strauss doesn't really buy it though and thinks he will be traded.

 

* Strauss will have more on the site tonight and something in the paper tomorrow.

 

Bernie, I didn't catch the last part. Did Strauss say that he DID expect moves to be made by Christmas? I thought he said they will try to make a move next week or something.

http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=506689&sid=017faea534f89dc5f5f69394d0959ede

[chinabob99]

Tom's latest, including quotes from LaRussa:

 

http://blogs.jsonline.com/brewers/archive/2007/12/05/rolen-has-to-go.aspx

 

"He needs to understand that he has slipped."

 

Um, ouch. And the Cards AREN'T motivated to trade him?

haha. Man, way to be a team player and go along with your GM's strategy LaRussa. I'm sure the Crew will be kicking down the door to offer a blue chip prospect, plus I'm sure they'll be happy to pick up Rolen's salary and maybe send some money to the Cards.

Maybe LaRussa is trying to get fired?

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Brewers GM Doug Melvin, one of baseball's more experienced dealers, told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel it was he who couldn't quite pull the trigger on the trade that would have brought Scott Rolen from St. Louis. "

 

So Doug was the one who admittedly couldn't quite pull the trigger. *crickets*

 

If Rolen goes somewhere else, and we wind up with a miscast 2nd baseman hitting 8 homers and batting 7th for us at 3B, instead of Scott Rolen hitting in the #3 hole, then this IS Doug's fault, right?

 

At first I was wary of Rolen, I'll admit. My spidey sense was tingling, and it wasn't in a good way. Rolen had a few relatively bad seasons lately, but when I see the alternatives Doug had in mind, (Tadahito Iguchi learning 3B, Aaron Boone, Joe Crede...who else? Mark Bellhorn?), I'm back on board the Rolen train.

 

Rolen has his flaws, and he doesn't come cheap, but these days, the only players who are without flaws and aren't expensive can only be found in PlayStation games.

 

If Doug acquires Rolen, I'll admit he tried his best to improve this team. But if he doesn't, it's entirely his fault for playing it way too cautiously.

[dpapo]

Here's some more information from a chat Joe Strauss did,

 

Will L: I've been hearing from espn.com that the cards have backed away froma possible Rolen trade and might keep the injury plagued 3rd Basemen. Please tell me hes gone!!! Whats the word?

Joe Strauss: GM John Mozeliak insisted Wednesday he expects Rolen to be with the club in spring training. I'm not sure I'd bet on that, but Mo is in a tough position where he has to create leverage for a player coming off surgery who is known to be disgruntled with his current situation. I can't think of a much tougher situation for a new GM. The Cardinals may be overreaching for players right now (at least according to the Brewers). If they could secure a solid starting pitcher or RH bat plus someone's top 5-10 prospect, I think the Cardinals will have done for Rolen. It appears they will have to eat some salary as well.

David in San Francisco: Not trading Rolen now when his market value is at a low is very good news. He could be the righthanded batter with power that the Cardinals need in their lineup along with Pujols. If Rolen returns healthy in 2008 and back to his 2006 level (.296 avg., 22 HR, 95 RBI, etc.), do you think the Cardinals might still trade him at the July trading deadline? If so, what do you think they could get for him in that scenario?

Joe Strauss: The Cardinals will get optimal value for Rolen now. The longer they wait, the fewer teams will have a need. In addition, waiting cuts the potential replacement pool at 3B. You suggest trading Rolen at the July deadline. That suggests you believe the Cardinals will be also-rans next season. You may be proven correct, but teams rarely receive "value" at the trading deadline. If the Cardinals are going to move Rolen, they need to get it done by Christmas. The Cardinals need a power-hitting RH bat. In other words, they need a healthy Rolen. Unfortunately, many close to the situation insist the relationship between him and TLR is beyond repair.

Matthew: If you had to pick where Rolen will play next season, where would it be?

Joe Strauss: Third base... for a West Coast contender or MIL.

http://www.stltoday.com/discussions/sports/joe-strauss-live/LD120407152/all

[trwi7]

The Cardinals may be overreaching for players right now (at least according to the Brewers). If they could secure a solid starting pitcher or RH bat plus someone's top 5-10 prospect, I think the Cardinals will have done for Rolen. It appears they will have to eat some salary as well.

So what is a solid right handed bat? Would that be someone like Mench to platoon with Duncan or Hall? Because if it's Hall there's no way they're also getting a top 5-10 prospect from anyone.

[Oldcity]

Geno, if you don't mind me asking, why you keep insisting the Brewers need a three-hole hitter?

 

Also Doug "couldn't" pull the trigger because he felt the Cards were asking for too much. I assume any GM would do the same in a situation where they felt there were giving up too much.

[chinabob99]

"Brewers GM Doug Melvin, one of baseball's more experienced dealers, told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel it was he who couldn't quite pull the trigger on the trade that would have brought Scott Rolen from St. Louis. "

 

So Doug was the one who admittedly couldn't quite pull the trigger. *crickets*

 

If Rolen goes somewhere else, and we wind up with a miscast 2nd baseman hitting 8 homers and batting 7th for us at 3B, instead of Scott Rolen hitting in the #3 hole, then this IS Doug's fault, right?

 

At first I was wary of Rolen, I'll admit. My spidey sense was tingling, and it wasn't in a good way. Rolen had a few relatively bad seasons lately, but when I see the alternatives Doug had in mind, (Tadahito Iguchi learning 3B, Aaron Boone, Joe Crede...who else? Mark Bellhorn?), I'm back on board the Rolen train.

 

Rolen has his flaws, and he doesn't come cheap, but these days, the only players who are without flaws and aren't expensive can only be found in PlayStation games.

 

If Doug acquires Rolen, I'll admit he tried his best to improve this team. But if he doesn't, it's entirely his fault for playing it way too cautiously.

Wait to see what the Cards do eventually trade him for. If it turns out that wanted Capuano, Gamel and for us to eat his whole contract, then Melvin did not make the wrong move. The Brewers can't afford to make foolish moves just to make a big splash. How many people last year were disappointed when we didn't get Schmidt? If we can make the move for the right price, then it is smart. It is not smart to overpay just to get a name who might be injured.