Rolen Trade, Latest: Glaus/Rolen swap (reply #795)

[theavrock]

Even if Rolen put up the same numbers as Geoff did, we are improving our IF defense and in all liklehood staying put on our OF defense. LF is not that hard of a position to play. Braun is a great athelete and I have no problem thinking he will be at worst an average defensive outfielder.

[Patrick425]

The defensive improvement from Braun to Rolen is so significant that Scott could hit .340/.410 and still upgrade the club quite a bit. And given the Brewers' OBP needs, I could almost (almost) care less about how much he slugs, as long as the OBP stays in the .340+ range.

Good point regarding OBP. However, how much will the defense improve. Obviously a great deal at 3B, but what about the OF? I think people just assume that anyone can play outfield. How good of a fielder will Braun be out there? The difference between Jenkins and Braun defensively is great.

 

Also, there is the assumption that they can just slide Braun back to 3B is Rolen gets injured. Well, Braun is not a good defensive player at 3B to begin with. How good do you think he is going to be if he gets put back there in the middle of the season after not playing 3B since September?

[MJLiverock]

Jenkins numbers haven't been very impressive for two years now despite limiting his plate appearances vs. LH's. At this point Jenkins is really a platoon player. I understand the age concerns, Rolen is only a year younger than Jenkins. I assumed numbers from Rolen that are below his career averages. Career wise Rolen hasn't show that he is black hole against LH pitching while at this point I think Jenkins is.

 

I think back to the beginning of the 2007 campaign and all the posts on this site estimating Jenkins was going to put up better numbers than Carlos Lee because of what Jenkins career averages are despite his advancing age and clear decline in skills during 2006 and followed by 2007. I think a .260/.320/.450 is a realistic line for Jenkins even as a platoon player.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I seem to remember a former Brewer power hitting third baseman that played pretty decent defense. Russell Branyan is a free agent, isn't he? If Russ could play a passable 3B, and hit 6th or 7th in the lineup, wouldn't that work out? He did have a great OBP. Just imagine what he could do with 600 ABs! We could be talking about 100 HRs from the OF and 120-140 from our infield!

*ducks and runs for cover*

 

 

 

 

 

By the way, I'm just kidding. (I think)

[And That]

On further checking, Brewer LFers had a .318 OBP last year, which was 24th best in baseball. If you figure Braun for a ~.360 OBP next season, that 40 OBP point improvement would have been good enough for 9th best in baseball. Brewer 3B had a .348 OBP last year, so I guess that's the number I'd want to get from Scott Rolen, at a minimum.

 

For giggles, here were the Brewers OBP by position last season:

C - .295 (24th)

1B - .393 (4th)

2B - .364 (7th)

3B - .348 (11th)

SS - .325 (17th)

LF - .318 (24th)

CF - .334 (16th)

RF - .329 (24th)

 

I'm suprised the Brewers were so low in RF last season, but clearly the two positions in need of the biggest improvement OBP-wise are catcher and LF. Catcher has been addressed, and moving Braun to LF and replacing him with Rolen takes care of left (signing/trading for a LF with good OBP would take care of that too, obviously).

 

How good of a fielder will Braun be out there? The difference between Jenkins and Braun defensively is great.

 

That's a fair point, however the priority to me is getting Braun the heck off of 3B. The defensive gain from Braun to Rolen would far outweigh the dropoff from Menchkins to Braun, IMO. Third base is more valuable defensively.

[brwrsfan]

I would think that if Rolen gets injured, Braun would be the last person to move back to 3B. If/when Braun goes to the outfield, I don't see him ever moving back to the infield.

 

If Rolen were to go down I'd venture a guess that we'd go with Counsell at third for the duration, though we certainly have other options if it's a long-term (or even short-term I guess) issue. Hall, Dillon and Rottino could all slide into the third base spot if necessary.

[And That]

If Rolen would get injured, yah, I'd assume it would be some combination of Dillon and Counsell. Dillsell. Counlon?

[trwi7]

I'm suprised the Brewers were so low in RF last season, but clearly the two positions in need of the biggest improvement OBP-wise are catcher and LF.

You are? Remember how much Gwynn and Mench were playing in RF earlier in the season?

[TooLiveBrew]

I was just going to post on that, trwi7. Hart's whopping 36 BBs didn't do much to counteract.

[And That]

Thankfully, Corey Hart's wonderful shadow was cast over my memory of anyone else playing RF. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

But that's also why I don't see RF OBP as an issue. The OBP upgrade from Estrada to Kendall is massive, but the upgrade from Menchkins, et al to Braun could potentially be just as great.

 

Hart's whopping 36 BBs didn't do much to counteract.

 

But his .353 OBP isn't a problem whatsover. Like I said, not worried about Hart and the RF OBP.

[tyguy20204]

On further checking, Brewer LFers had a .318 OBP last year, which was 24th best in baseball. If you figure Braun for a ~.360 OBP next season, that 40 OBP point improvement would have been good enough for 9th best in baseball. Brewer 3B had a .348 OBP last year, so I guess that's the number I'd want to get from Scott Rolen, at a minimum.

I get what you're saying about both the OBP differences and the improved defense, and I definitely agree. I just think that Rolen's injuries makes it a riskier trade than what you make it out to be. Even with his struggles last year, Capuano has real value. If we give them Capuano, I would sure hope they'd pick up all of his contract.

[TooLiveBrew]

They would. The only contract issue here is Rolen's money.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Acquiring Rolen would be a great help to the Brewers

 

The dip in his offensive numbers had much more negative affect on the Cards in 07 as it would in Milwaukee, since he would most likely be inserted lower in the lineup, and not serve as the primary protection for Pujols as he did in St. Louis.

 

Defensively, he's still GG caliber, and the benefit of drastically improving the team's infield defense outweighs any shortcomings he may have offensively.

 

Essentially, we'd be replacing the Menchkins offensive contribution with whatever Rolen can do - probably near the same # of HRs, with a higher OBP and fewer strikeouts. He's also always been mentioned as being a great baserunner (not SBs, but great at getting jumps and knowing what to do based on the situation)

 

I think that adding another veteran that can draw from past experiences would help more than bringing in even more youth (depends on who that youth is, obviously).

 

He'd also be a welcome addition to the team's bench-clearing brawl lineup, since he's big enough to play linebacker in the NFL.

[And That]

I just think that Rolen's injuries makes it a riskier trade than what you make it out to be.

 

I think that if this is what it takes to get Braun off of 3B permanently, the Brewers should be willing to assume the injury risk to Rolen. Dillon and Counsell would play decent defense and have a decent OBP in Rolen's stead.

 

[Big Reed]

it would appear to me that the brewers' success last year was not due to their OBP. A low OBP translated into a lot of wins. Throw out billy beane's book and the rest of the power ball theories. Go back to players winning on grit and scrappiness. perhaps OBP is thought of too highly and perhaps the stat we should really fall in love with is steals.

[trwi7]

I was just going to post on that, trwi7. Hart's whopping 36 BBs didn't do much to counteract.

 

He also got hit by 13 pitches so that bumps it up a little more.

[brains and braun]

That was supposed to be blue, right Reed?

[trwi7]

it would appear to me that the brewers' success last year was not due to their OBP. A low OBP translated into a lot of wins. Throw out billy beane's book and the rest of the power ball theories. Go back to players winning on grit and scrappiness. perhaps OBP is thought of too highly and perhaps the stat we should really fall in love with is steals.

 

If nobody gets on base then how do you expect to score runs? I'll take 9 Rickie Weeks' and their OBP's over 9 David Eckstein's and their "grit and scrappiness" whatever that is.

[tyguy20204]

They would. The only contract issue here is Rolen's money.

Sorry about my pronoun use. That is what I meant - Rolen's money.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Hart's nearly a lock for 50 BBs next year. He certainly can work the count, and looked to show more patience in the 2d half of 2007. I have little doubt that our OBP in 2008 is going to dwarf 2007's.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

A+ for sarcasm Reed!

 

In all seriousness, i hope Melvin doesn't pull a Ted Thompson and wait toooooooooo long on Rolen (ala Randy Moss). The trade debate has been beaten more than a dead horse, and I don't think anyone really has any serious objections to the players we're giving up. Cappy, Gwynn, Mench, and to a lesser extent Hall, are all spare parts at this point.

 

The longer this goes on... the less of a chance we have at acquiring Rolen.... which is too bad, since he would be a BIG boost for our lineup

[RobertR]

The Brewers offense was good last year because they hit over 200 HRs. You don't have to analyze further than that. Turning the lineup over a few more times can only be good for it.

 

If the Brewers know that they can get 130 games out of Rolen in 2008 at about an .800 OPS, they should make the trade yesterday as he'll easily be worth the $12 million when you throw in the defensive upgrade. Properly evaluating his injury risk is the key to completing/not completing the deal.

 

Robert

[brains and braun]

TLB, your new avatar made me laugh out loud. Very cool.

[TooLiveBrew]

That was supposed to be blue, right Reed?

You know what's funny about that? I misread his post this way, too, initially. Only after starting to post did I catch this -

 

"it would appear to me that the brewers' success last year was not due to their OBP."

Hehehe. Sneaky Big Reed.

 

EDIT: Thanks, b&b. Dug around for some Star Wars avatars last night. Found a ton. Don't worry, more to come...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[brains and braun]

Rolen to Brewers = WOAH SOLVDD