Rolen Trade, Latest: Glaus/Rolen swap (reply #795)

[brettac1]

Good to see you back, Ray. I actually was wondering aloud where you were a while back in the thread.

 

I guess I think the sell-lows of Capuano and Rolen cancel each other out for me, and it's kind of a "change of scenery" trade. Rolen obviously has asked for one, so I think he definitely is going to move in the next week. I don't know that Capuano really needs one, but for Rolen he can get one.

 

I'm personally fine doing a 3 for 1 for Rolen and not even getting Flores. Franklin, I don't really care for, either. I think last year was definitely a fluke. I seem to remember him getting off to a great start with an ERA in the 1's for a while and then pretty much pitching like Ryan Franklin again (not the one from '03) for the rest of the season. I think it's fair to say that once he got busted for steroids (which I don't think has been mentioned in the thread) that he wasn't the same pitcher.

[RedbirdRay]

Brettac, it's good to be back.

 

<-- Those little guys kept me so busy, I really didn't post much at all anywhere in the last year. I still have 3 in diapers at the moment.

 

I am still a large Rolen supporter. He has his faults and his injury-proneness, but he's a hard working player and a pleasure to watch. His defense is simply amazing.

 

TLR is a HOF manager and I do actually appreciate him. I like his use of platoon matchups, which I feel a lot of managers under use. However, he has his faults and I thought it was time the Cardinals parted ways with him also. He loves his veterans and useless gritty middle infielders. He also can overuse a R/L matchup. Sometimes a superior hitter is better, even if it's L/L.

 

I was in heaven this off-season when it seemed Chris Antonetti was a sure thing. But, alas, TLR is here for a few more years, CA turned us down to stay in Cleveland, and the books still out on our new(ish) GM. The Cards claim to have a newer focus on building from within. Sid Midgel and Jeff Lunhow are foreward thinking guys in our front office. Signings like Izturis are certainly discouraging, but I guess it's better than a long-term contract with Eckstein. He did pass on re-upping So Taguchi, Gary Bennett and Mike Maroth. I guess those are reasons for optimism. And, so far at least, he seems adamant about not trading Colby Rasmus or Bryan Anderson.

 

All that said, I wish TLR had gone and Rolen would stay. He may not return to his 2004 form (will not is more accurate), but he's still pretty useful. The way contracts are going post-revenue sharing, I feel his contract will probably seem pretty nice by next year. I have rationalized it from all angles, generally without emotion as those of us fond of metrics tend to do. But, I think it hit home most just now when I saw your Avatar. OMG, it's just so wrong!

 

I truly believe he will recover into a very nice player. I don't know that his power numbers will ever fully recover chronically bad shoulders, but I am sure his plate discipline will remain. I think he will end up being a great number 2 hitter now rather than a middle order guy. A .270/.365/.420 or so guy maybe with another 2 wins or so via glove is still a damn nice player.

[danzig6767]

Hey Redbirdray

 

I read that link you provided, two things on that

 

1. I doubt Melvin will include Hall

 

2. If he did though, the writer of the blog was wrong about Hall's contract situation. He said Hall is arby eligible, that's not the case. Hall signed a contract with us last year, it was a 4yr/24 million dollar extension that bought out his first year of free agency.

[dadofandrew]

We all know those bloggers are uninformed buffoons.

[sbrylski]

We all know those bloggers are uninformed buffoons.

He's just evaluating a rumor, saying what he thinks if it indeed was true. You blog posts aren't any better/different. Burn.

[PeaveyFury]

Sam, I'm fairly certain that was Al's point. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TheCouga23]

We don't need a closer anymore. Riske will work fine. If this deal went through, we would pretty much be set for next year. We would still have 7 SP, a solid bullpen, and an average or better bat at every position in the field except for catcher (and possibly center field depending on whether we see the 2006 Bill Hall or the 2007 Bill Hall).

 

If we traded Capuano, I would go with a rotation of:

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Suppan

Villanueva

Bush

 

and have Parra and Vargas as injury replacements that can work in the bullpen for the time being. On top of Parra and Vargas, Riske, Turnbow, Franklin/Flores, Shouse, Wise and Mota with Choate and McClung in AAA seems pretty deep to me. Bush needs to stay in the rotation. His K/BB ratio is one of the best in the league, and I think that it's only a matter of time before he puts it all together and becomes a top-notch starter. It's hard to be patient with people like him, but I think we should at least give him another chance as a #5 this year.

 

Rolen's defense coupled with his .799 OPS would be acceptable, but I see the .799 OPS as a floor. He could surprise us and come back totally healthy. If St. Louis wants to cover about $10MM of his remaining money, I would certainly make this deal and call it an offseason. The only other good option I can think of is keeping Braun at third and signing Luis Gonzalez or Kenny Lofton to a one year deal to play LF before LaPorta is ready. The fact is, there are no reasonable thrid basemen or LF available, so Rolen is one of the best options out there.

[dadofandrew]

Heh.

 

Burn? Gads.

[dpapo]

A couple days ago I was wondering why Rosenthal hadn't written anything about the Rolen rumors. In an article someone linked to in another thread, I found this little bit of information in an Rosenthal article.

"The Brewers remain an obvious possibility for Rolen, a native of Evansville, Ind., who enjoys the Midwest and is good friends with Brewers right-hander Jeff Suppan."

[igor67]

Given the historical record on aging curves and 3rd basemen I'd be quite hesitant to do any deal unless STL does agree to pay part of the contract. Offensively Rolen doesn't walk much and so having anything other than a marginal OBP is dependent on batting average.

[Tbadder]

I just can't see this thing happening. It's much harder for old guys to come back as opposed to young guys. A declining injury-prone Rolen won't be as effective as a youngish Hall at 3rd base. Sure, defensively he's no Rolen, but offensively I bet Hall's better next year, and the gap between Hall and Rolen defensively is nothing compared to the gap between Braun and Rolen. Moving Braun to left solves so many problems, and makes moves less complicated (move Braun/Hall--get a CF).

 

Same thing for Cappy. Given his age I think he stands a much better chance of bouncing back. He's cheaper by a ton, and if he does return to form and you want to dump him, he's probably worth more on the open market. He also gives us insurance against our fluid starting five, and doesn't seem as tempermental as Rolen.

 

I just can't see this thing happening. I hope it doesn't, even if the Cards do throw down on salary.

[endaround]

The problem is that Capuano isn't guaranteed a starting spot in the rotation next season. And so it would be hard for him to bounce back if he doesn't pitch. Right now the rotation looks like:

 

1) Sheets

2) Gallardo

3) Suppan

4) Villaneuva

5) Bush/Capuano/Parra

 

And that still leaves Vargas.

[clancyphile]

I'm not crazy about giving up Capuano, either, but if that's who it takes to get Rolen, we still have plenty of other arms. The potential/quality quotient may go down a bit after starter #4 compared to before losing Capuano, but Parra has strong potential and neither Bush nor Vargas are TOTAL chopped liver, even if every once in a while they pitched like it.

 

What's Melvin proved to be so good at so much of the time? BUY LOW, SELL HIGH. This would be buying low on Rolen.

 

If it takes selling a little low on Cappy to net Rolen, it still seems smart because, to make the Lowell parallel again, Boston had to give up Hanley Ramirez & others in the deal they got Lowell & Beckett. The Brewers wouldn't be giving up anything near that degree of promise.

My inclination would be to counter any request for Capuano by offering Vargas and Mench - and paying more of Rolen's salary. If the Brewers do that, they might be able to swing a couple of PTBNLs in the deal. Vargas is probably the most expendable. Capauano would, if he bounced back, be the best #5 starter in the majors. I also like the idea of Bush in the bullpen in that Marmol role - someone who comes in and shuts down an opposing team.

 

[twobrewers]

A declining injury-prone Rolen won't be as effective as a youngish Hall at 3rd base. Sure, defensively he's no Rolen, but offensively I bet Hall's better next year, and the gap between Hall and Rolen defensively is nothing compared to the gap between Braun and Rolen.

First off, regarding the medical health of Rolen. None of us really have any idea of how healthy he is or isn't. That will have to be determined by our medical staff. However, I do put faith in the fact that medicine is better now than it was 10 years ago. So I think there is a decent chance of a healthy Rolen.

 

Secondly, regarding Hall at 3B. You might be right that Hall at 3B would outproduce Rolen. But then we need an outfielder to replace Hall. So they real question would be whether we would be better off acquiring Rolen (and his gold glove 3B) or an outfielder? (Assuming the Brewers are willing to move Hall to 3B - which seems unlikely to me)

[TauPentaRei]

I also like the idea of Bush in the bullpen in that Marmol role - someone who comes in and shuts down an opposing team.

 

With all due respect... um, no.

 

Dave Bush is a F150 pick-up truck, probably more like a Ford Ranger even. Strong, dependable, vanilla, straightforward, non-intimidating, utilitarian.

 

Marmol is a Ferrari Enzo. Violent movement, electric good, scary stuff, definitely threatening, stop-and-stare, extinguisher.

 

[insert appropriate K/9 stat here]

 

If Bush has a Cub equivalent it is some Ohman + Trachsel + Wuertz permutation combo. Marmol is one of the top 5 relievers in the NL.

[chinabob99]

I love trade season as much for the bizarre ways people pass along unsubtantiated rumors as for any actual deals that happen. Take, for instance this Brew Crew Ball thread on Rolen. Someone pops in at about 11:30 to say that he has it from a very good source Rolen to the Brewers will happen by the end of the day. A few minutes later, the "very good source" is revealed to be the a friend's husband who grew up in Rolen's hometown.

As someone else pointed out, thats right up there in terms of sourcing with last seasons "I have a friend who works on the grounds crew, and saw Turnbow and Wise go running into the clubhouse, therefore Adam Dunn has been traded to the Brewers." Good times.

[cooprules]

Per Rotoworld, the Card and Rangers are also talking about Rolen. This time a Rolen + Duncan/Blalock possible deal. The longer this goes, the more the Brewers will have to give up I believe, with more interest from other teams. Therefore I'm thinking it won't happen. Melvin did mention they talked to St. Louis today though.

[TooLiveBrew]

Offensively Rolen doesn't walk much and so having anything other than a marginal OBP is dependent on batting average.

 

This isn't true. His career BB/AB rate is far better than the prescribed 1/10. A low season BB total for Scott is north of 50. That's a guy that walks plenty.

 

[insert appropriate K/9 stat here]

Bush's was 6.47 as a SP in 2007, which most would agree was a down year for Dave. A .327 BABIP allowed was one of the reasons his most recent campaign was so bumpy. Normalize that to around the average of .300, and things are much better. His BB/K rates weren't really any different for his norm(s) in 2007.

 

Yes, Marmol's K rate was much better. His BB/9 was also much worse, with a .276 BABIP allowed. Normalize that for Carlos, and things don't look as sexy.

[fondybrewfan]

Well if I had to pick between giving up Rolen and Duncan of Hank Blalock or getting Capuano, Gwynn, and Mench I would almost certainly take the Brewers offer. Blalock does nothing to solve any pitching problems and Blalock is just as big a medical question mark as Rolen all be it at a lesser salary

[Klements Bratwurst]

Well if I had to pick between giving up Rolen and Duncan of Hank Blalock or getting Capuano, Gwynn, and Mench I would almost certainly take the Brewers offer. Blalock does nothing to solve any pitching problems and Blalock is just as big a medical question mark as Rolen all be it at a lesser salary

 

I certainly agree Fondy, and here is a link that squashes the Rolen/Blalock swap.

[RobertR]

Other than Texas not being in the division, I also fail to see what the Texas trade would accomplish for the Cardinals.

 

I'm skeptical of defensive metrics, but the defensive stats out there still put Rolen as an elite defender. A healthy Rolen with his offensive and defensive contributions, probably does put the Brewers over the top in the division. BP had him at an 8.8 WARP in 2006 and if he bounces back to the 6 WARP territory, his salary would be plenty justified.

 

Robert

[MoneyballMan]

Well if I had to pick between giving up Rolen and Duncan of Hank Blalock or getting Capuano, Gwynn, and Mench I would almost certainly take the Brewers offer. Blalock does nothing to solve any pitching problems and Blalock is just as big a medical question mark as Rolen all be it at a lesser salary

I certainly agree Fondy, and here is a link that squashes the Rolen/Blalock swap.

I like Rolen for Cap, TGJ and Shreck only if they also include Ryan Franklin as had been mentioned earlier. Otherwise, they may be talking about Rolen for Cap straight-up.

[dpapo]

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a forum where the writers will add information from time to time. At least that is how it seems to work. Anyway, here is what the St. Louis writers had to say about 3 hours ago,

 

Strauss (one of the writers who covers the Cardinals) with us on 1380 from winter meeting; here's a recap so far... (on Scott Rolen)

 

* Brewers and Giants in play...

 

* Pedro Feliz and Scott Rolen have the same agent...

 

* So if Cardinals do Rolen a favor, the theory is, agent would do Cardinals a favor (Feliz).

 

* Brewers appear to be front-runner...

 

* Joe thinks momentum for a trade is there...

 

* Capuano 's name popping up (as you know)...

 

* Or Bill Hall....(speculation).

 

* What Cardinals would pay (percentage of Rolen's salary) depends on what kind of player they'd get in return....

 

* Early in the day in Nashville... story is evolving...Joe knows more, will report more, have to read the P-D or STLtoday.com later.

 

http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=506041&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=0

 

I noticed the St. Louis fans are talking about a Cappy/Hall for Rolen/Reyes trade. I can't see the Brewers having or adding Bill Hall to the deal. Maybe if the Cards added Duncan, but still I have to think Hall is not part of the deal as the Hall part is just speculation by the writer. Didn't mention anything about the Texan rumor, maybe it was something that came up later in the day.

[JJHardy7]

I noticed the St. Louis fans are talking about a Cappy/Hall for Rolen/Reyes trade. I can't see the Brewers having or adding Bill Hall to the deal. Maybe if the Cards added Duncan, but still I have to think Hall is not part of the deal as the Hall part is just speculation by the writer. Didn't mention anything about the Texan rumor, maybe it was something that came up later in the day.

 

There's no way the Brewers give up Hall in a trade for Rolen. That would still leave a hole in the OF -- even if Braun moves there. It's dangerous to trade within a division and even more dangerous to give up a good player who hit 30+ HRs in 2006.

[Vgmastr]

Tom Haudricourt posted a new blog entry, where DM admits to talking to the Cards about Rolen today, although he says there's nothing serious at the moment:

 

Brewers talk to Cards about Rolen