Rolen Trade, Latest: Glaus/Rolen swap (reply #795)

[dadofandrew]

Ender sums up my feelings on Counsell nicely.

 

And 255, I think in your plan, the #6 SP is currently a minor league FA. Doug will keep some depth for the rotation, without a doubt. I would guess Parra at least, and probably Manny and one other. 2 solid players and a decent prospect for one year of Nathan? I would be shocked.

[DHarris34Phan]

Thanks twirly, anyone want to estimate the chances of this actually going down?

 

That deal would be pretty sweet.

[trwi7]

Thanks twirly, anyone want to estimate the chances of this actually going down?

 

That deal would be pretty sweet.

 

Ah you're going by my realgm name I see.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

 

[DHarris34Phan]

Thanks twirly, anyone want to estimate the chances of this actually going down?

 

That deal would be pretty sweet.

Ah you're going by my realgm name I see.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

 

I thought that is what it meant....http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

 

[twobrewers]

I'm sure that'll help him accept a trade to Milwaukee, but if the situation is as bad as rumored I don't think it will matter to much where he goes.

I know a lot of people dislike Yost around here. (No seriously, some people don't like him at all) But Yost certainly has earned a bit of reputation as a "players coach" from sticking with players through slumps.

 

And with Suppan in Milwaukee, it might actually be possible that Rolen wants to come to Milwaukee. He could threaten to veto any other trade to ensure that he ended up in Milwaukee. So St. Louis has absolutely no leverage.

 

Most of these rumors just bounce around and are fun to talk about. This one seems to have a legitimate chance - 50% or so in my opinion.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

Normally, I'm very pro-veteran, pro-established star, first.

 

But let's take a look at a Scott Rolen trade:

 

- He'll turn 33 at our home opener.

 

- St. Louis wants his next team to pay the FULL $12.3 million.

 

- He has had not one, not 2, but 3 shoulder surgeries!

 

- All these procedures have left him a shell of his former self, as a run producer:

 

- Over the 3 years BEFORE all these injuries started to decimate his career:

His average season: 151 games, 622 PAs, .289-31-113-8, with a .926 OPS. Home run every 20.1 Plate Appearances, an RBI every 5.5

 

- Over the last 3 seasons combined:

Rolen hit only 1 more home run than he did, back in 2004.

His average season, the last 3, goes something like: 103 games, 209 PAs, .274-12-60-4, with a .799 OPS. Home run every 35.1 Plate Appearances,

an RBI every 6.79

 

Still, would he help the Brewers? Defensively? Probably a lot, even though those left shoulder surgeries could hamper diving to his left after balls in the SS hole. Offensively? Rolen essentially replaces Menchkins, so yes, no question.

 

But I've got to ask:

 

a) IS he completely healthy? Forgive me for not taking the word of Jocketty on this one. Hell, I don't even take our OWN GM's word on anything.

b) Don't we still need a closer, and a middle reliever, and possibly a starting pitcher, first?

c) Do we want Prince and 7 righty batters in there most days?

d) Have we given up on Carl Crawford?

 

If the trade gets done, there's still no way in hell we pick up Rolen's entire salary. I'd say a fair package, for a player St. Louis no longer apparently wants, is Dillon and Capuano (although I'd rather substitute Bush) for Rolen and, say St. Louis kicks in $10,000,000 out of the $37 mil he gets over the next 3 years.

[DannoMac21]

Thanks twirly, anyone want to estimate the chances of this actually going down?

 

That deal would be pretty sweet.

Ah you're going by my realgm name I see.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

 

I thought that is what it meant....http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

 

 

I wanna get in on the RealGM talk (DannoMac20 here)...

[TooLiveBrew]

Rumored deal from Rosenthal is Capuano, Gwynn and Mench for Rolen and either Franklin or Flores.

 

As I've said before... If the returned players are Rolen & Franklin, call me & I'll be there half an hour ago.

[jjfanec]

Rolen and Franklin sounds good to me especially since to me Cappy is the onlyone of the guys getting traded who has a lot of value for us next year

[trwi7]

DannoMac my guy from Hartland along with mbucks I think. We should get in on that realgm chat later. We said we were going to do that for games and nobody does.

[splitterpfj]

This, from Haudricourt's latest, on jsonline. This follows the Rolen rumor, and the statement that Melvin wouldn't rule out the possibility of a deal down the road...

 

"I'm not going to comment on who we're talking about," said Melvin, who believes published reports make trades and signings more difficult to consummate.

 

I think that's exactly right, he's not going to start telling the press he's in love with Rolen, he's still negotiating both money and players if a deal does get done, he could cost himself the opportunity if he overdoes it.

[sbrylski]

a) IS he completely healthy? Forgive me for not taking the word of Jocketty on this one. Hell, I don't even take our OWN GM's word on anything.

 

I'm going to assume that our own doctors will determine this before the trade. It'll be a risk, but if we do the trade, I think it means signs are pointing to healthy.

 

Even if he's just a shell of his former self, that .800 OPS with excellent defense will still be an asset to the team.

 

b) Don't we still need a closer, and a middle reliever, and possibly a starting pitcher, first?

 

Yes, probably not, and probably not.

 

We definitely still have a closer hole, but I'm not too worried that we either will find one through a second move, or someone now on our roster could do fine in the role. I'm skeptical that the Cards will want Gwynn, I think he could be used to grab a closer.

 

I think we have plenty of middle relief depth. It's the backend of the pen that still could use some addressing, as Turnbow and Riske would be no better than passable by themselves.

 

Every team could use a starting pitching upgrade. I highly doubt it'd be in the cards for us this offseason, especially by using Capuano.

 

c) Do we want Prince and 7 righty batters in there most days?

 

If they can hit, they can hit. Its something to consider, but not really going to sway my opinion.

 

d) Have we given up on Carl Crawford?

 

Was it ever really a realistic possibility? With Delmon Young gone, he's probably staying put now anyway.

[logan82]

sbrylski06 wrote:

d) Have we given up on Carl Crawford?

 

Was it ever really a realistic possibility? With Delmon Young gone, he's probably staying put now anyway.

Thank goodness. I hope this Rolen talk dies out pretty soon as well.

[jjfanec]

Thank goodness. I hope this Rolen talk dies out pretty soon as well.

I feel like the Rolen talk is a lot different than the Crawford talk. The Crawford talk was mostly all message board or blog stuff. Whereas the Rolen talk has been reported by pretty much everyone, Rosenthal, Gammons etc. I assume the talks are definitely going on but who knows if it will ever happen.

 

[AJAY]

I worry about Rolen's health, but the thought of his defense at third base really excites me. He also brings instant credibility and professionalism to this organization.

[logan82]

I guess I wouldn't mind the salary next year, but the year after is Fielder's first year of arbitration. I think Weeks as well. Maybe they would take Suppan in return to even out contracts. Of course that would be a terrible trade. That third year would be a killer since Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Hart and Hardy will all be up for arbitration unless we sign them to contracts earlier. Between personality issues with the manager, injuries and salary I really don't want Rolen.

[don1481]

Maybe they would take Suppan in return to even out contracts.

 

IIRC, they cannot trade Suppan during the first two years of his contract due to a no-trade clause.

[logan82]

Yes, and like I said that would be a terrible trade anyway. Trading an injury free guy for a guy with injury problems.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm going to assume that our own doctors will determine this before the trade. It'll be a risk, but if we do the trade, I think it means signs are pointing to healthy.

 

I'm not sure if it was simply Sutton being a homer, but I know there have been many compliments payed (by more than just Daron) to our medical staff in recent history.

[SeriesFinale]

The personality issues worry me, especially since this team just dumped Johnny Estrada for those reasons

 

I also always find this stuff fascinating: a man has to go to a doctor to see if he's fit to be transferred from one employer to another whether he likes it or not...think about that.

[RedbirdRay]

VEB is a sabr-minded Cardinal blog that has quite a cult following. HoustonCardinal wrote a nice entry wieghing in his opinion of the recent rumors.

 

Guess this will be my first post with the new format. Somehow, I registered or re-registered or something. I am curious to see if this is post number one or post number whatever I was at. Guess I need to learn how to link on the new format also...

 

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2007/12/2/25825/6176

[SmartBall]

Good article in the link, but I doubt there is any way we trade Cappy and Hall for Rolen and Reyes. For Rolen coming off the DL and wanting out of STL bad, no way he is worth that much.

[Oldcity]

Yeah I can't see Hall included in this either, unless Duncan was included on their end or something. I'm guessing there's no way the Cards will do that. Capuano, Mench, Gwynn for Rolen, Flores sounds fine to me. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Roscoe Chill]

Well maybe the Brewers can have the same team as last year except Kendall for Estrada (wash at best) and weaker in the bullpen...that would probably be enough to win the division, because the guaranteed improvement of the young guys will be all they need!

[RedbirdRay]

Good article in the link, but I doubt there is any way we trade Cappy and Hall for Rolen and Reyes. For Rolen coming off the DL and wanting out of STL bad, no way he is worth that much.

 

I kinda agree. I wouldn't do the trade if I were you. And, I wouldn't do it if I were us. I think Reyes was mishandled and has a much better potential than he will probably ever realize in StL. His projections last year by all systems were better than anyone elses on our staff. Projections this year are also pretty nice. His minor league career was very nice and his peripherals make me drool. However, TLR and DD don't like him. Additionally, he kinda has some messed up mechanics that will eventually cause him problems. FWIW he was a teammate of Mark Priors. Maybe it's the coaches there that teach that inverted W crap?

 

But, really, I think Cardinals would be selling low on both players (Reyes and Rolen) and could potentially reap a lot better reward by holding onto either of them a little longer. Let's face it, the Cards aren't going anywhere in 2008. Might as well let them get some playing time and trade them when/if thier stock rises a little.

 

Really, the Brewers are kinda in the same boat with Hall and Cappy. Trading both now would be selling a little low. Of course, Hall has greater value as a SS and he had a down offensive year. Cappy did also. I am a fan of both and think they will both re(pro)gress to the mean.