Melvin on WSSP

[rluzinski]

I don't think you decide if a team has "enough" offense to sacrifice some for defense. You need to compare the estimated run value of the defense vs. the run value of the offense. Even if you are talking about ballpark figures for defense, it's better than nothing.

 

If we are talking about an in house fix, I'm still in favor of Braun LF, Hall 3B, Hart CF. I say that all three would be average to above average at those positions. If Melvin could find someone else (free agent or trade) at 3B, I think Hall could be much improved in CF next year.

[logan82]

I think Hall was playing a pretty respectable CF by years end. If I am not mistaken he was put in for defensive purposes at least once or twice.

[gregmag]

I don't think you decide if a team has "enough" offense to sacrifice some for defense. You need to compare the estimated run value of the defense vs. the run value of the offense. Even if you are talking about ballpark figures for defense, it's better than nothing.

 

If we are talking about an in house fix, I'm still in favor of Braun LF, Hall 3B, Hart CF. I say that all three would be average to above average at those positions. If Melvin could find someone else (free agent or trade) at 3B, I think Hall could be much improved in CF next year.

After reading through the thread, this was exactly the post I wanted to write, except I wouldn't have said it this well.

 

SoCal makes a fair point about not messing with Hall's head again, but would a move back to 3B really do that? I would guess that he'd be more comfortable there by opening day than he would be in CF.

 

Greg.

[joepepsi]

While the Brewers defense certainly could use some help, I think a mere shuffling of the deck chairs, ie moving existing players around, isn't going to make them division winners. Putting Gwynn in CF, Braun in LF, and Hall at 3B decreases 2008's projected offense at two positions. Melvin is right, they need to add a veteran bat with good on base skills. That is going to come in the form of a LF'er or now, apparently, a 3rd baseman since there might be several to choose from at that position.

 

The defense wasn't great in 2006, but if Sheets was healthy all year, they win the division by a half dozen games. Additionally, the fact Bush, Capuano, and to an extent, Suppan, couldn't get through the 5th inning for several weeks in the heat of the summer had a greater affect on the season's w/l than defense. Admittedly, poor defense played a role in the latter issue.

[bacon06]

I think everyone is just in love with the idea of Bill Hall at 3B since before the start of last season and can't get off of it. Braun needs more time at third base before a final judgment can be passed on his defense. Look at where Rickie Weeks has gotten to defensively and how Bill Hall improved in center. It is possible for people to improve defensively. Braun will be entering his third professional season playing third, so it is still way too early to close the book on him and say he won't make it at third.

[Oldcity]

While the Brewers defense certainly could use some help, I think a mere shuffling of the deck chairs, ie moving existing players around, isn't going to make them division winners. Putting Gwynn in CF, Braun in LF, and Hall at 3B decreases 2008's projected offense at two positions.

Nobody's putting Gwynn in the lineup. It would likely be Braun to a corner, Hall to third and Hart to center. That way you're actually improving two defensive positions without losing any offense, and then you use Gross/Mench or a replacement for the final corner spot.

Braun needs more time at third base before a final judgment can be passed on his defense.

He had the worst statistical season of any third baseman in the last decade. Maybe it takes him a few years to improve to just "poor," and by then the Brewers may have squandered their best chance at winning. Or maybe he doesn't even get much better at all.

 

If this was 2002 and the Brewers still stunk I'd be fine with keeping Braun at third for another year, but the Brewers are trying to win now. Keeping Braun at third hurts their chances at winning in 2008.

[rluzinski]

The defense wasn't great in 2006, but if Sheets was healthy all year, they win the division by a half dozen games.

 

I don't think that's true. A rquick and rough estimate (if I'm doing this right):

 

Real Sheets: 3.8 ERA @ 141 IP

 

Healthy Sheets: 3.5 ERA @ 210 IP (guess)

 

Assuming Sheets was replaced by a "replacement level" pitcher when hurt, a healthy Sheets saves something like 25 extra runs and wins 2 or 3 more games (10 runs = 1 win) over a full season, on average. In actuality, the #6 starter for the Brewers in 2007 was better than an average replacement level pitcher (something like 5.5 to 6 ERA, IIRC), so it might have been only a couple of wins. Maybe enough to win the division but almost certainly not by 6 games.

 

New LF + reshuffled defense - Coco = 90 wins, IMO.

[Fatter than Joey]

Look at where Rickie Weeks has gotten to defensively and how Bill Hall improved in center.

 

Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall are still terrible at their positions -- their improvement notwithstanding.

 

Braun will be entering his third professional season playing third, so it is still way too early to close the book on him and say he won't make it at third.

 

Do you know who Jap Barbeau is? -- In 1909 he fielded 3b worse than Ryan Braun. Once every 98 years or so, someone comes

along that will play 3b as poorly as Braun did. Just like you can't expect Mench to start hitting RHP, or TGJ to start hitting HRS,

I don't think it is prudent to hope that Braun will start fielding well.

[joepepsi]

Assuming Sheets was replaced by a "replacement level" pitcher when hurt, a healthy Sheets saves something like 25 extra runs and wins 2 or 3 more games (10 runs = 1 win) over a full season, on average.

Actually, using your assumptions for ERA and innings pitched, the 25 run differential is really the difference between the league average ERA (4.58), not a replacement level starter.

 

Still, I probably did overstate my case. A healthy Sheets more likely would have led to 5 or 6 more wins, not to winning the division by 6 games. And, I suppose one could argue if Sheets had been healthy than Gallardo and later, Villanueva, may never have been given the chance the start so healthy or injured, Sheets didn't matter after July.

[JJHardy7]

Do you know who Jap Barbeau is? -- In 1909 he fielded 3b worse than Ryan Braun. Once every 98 years or so, someone comes

along that will play 3b as poorly as Braun did. Just like you can't expect Mench to start hitting RHP, or TGJ to start hitting HRS,

I don't think it is prudent to hope that Braun will start fielding well.

 

I'm guessing Jap Barbeau didn't have quite the rookie year Braun had. He will make it work at 3B or be moved to the OF. One of the two will happen. I'd like for him to stay at 3B, but if we have a replacement at 3B then let's move Braun. I don't think we need to make this decision in November. We'll see where the Brewers roster is after the winter meetings. Maybe we trade Hall to a team that needs a SS for a 3B? It'll all work out.

 

I think there are a lot bigger issues to worry about than moving Braun. Let's wait to see how the roster pans out and then we can see what moves should be made.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'm guessing Jap Barbeau didn't have quite the rookie year Braun had.

 

Defensively yes, Offensively no.

 

I think there are a lot bigger issues to worry about than moving Braun.

 

Honestly I think our IF defense (or lack thereof) is our biggest concern.

[JJHardy7]

Honestly I think our IF defense (or lack thereof) is our biggest concern.

 

My point is I'm sure Doug Melvin knows this and it shouldn't be a concern until we see how free agency or trades pan out. If the defense is the biggest concern and it's not addressed than maybe Melvin should be looked at as the reason why. It's still early in the process and if it was March right now I'd be more concerned.

[dadofandrew]

I agree Logan, Hall was fine after May or so. He was awful early, which was to be expected, but after he backed up and slowed down a bit, he was ok.

[danzig6767]

If Melvin brings back the same position players in the same spots except for bringing in new LF, the plan for improving a terrible defensive team will be the hope and pray method. Hope and pray the weaker links in the poor defense improve quite a bit through one more year of experience. It possibly could work, but if it doesn't, it will cost the team games next year. Hopefully that's not the case and during a tight division race where we lose a playoff berth by 1-3 games. The unsettling part of that for me is if three of our infield defenders next year are only just bad next year, that will be an improvement.

[dadofandrew]

It's not at all unlikely young defenders will improve. Most young players improve in both aspects of the game for several years. The average 22 year-old simply is not as good as the average 27 year-old.

[JJHardy7]

Agreed Al. I just think physically there is nothing preventing these guys from improving. It appears to be more mental, which they can possibly overcome.

[dadofandrew]

Weeks proves it, though many change the subject to say Rickie still isn't good...but, he has improved nicely.

[trwi7]

Weeks proves it, though many change the subject to say Rickie still isn't good...but, he has improved nicely.

Nobody is saying Weeks hasn't improved. However you're only comparing him from what he was to what he is now, you should be comparing him to the rest of the league.

[Fatter than Joey]

The average 22 year-old simply is not as good as the average 27 year-old.

 

Of course you realize that Braun won't be 27 next year.

 

Al's point presumes a gradual/incremental improvement from 22 to 27. Where Al's point fails,

is that next year you are only likely to see see a smallish improvement. It is not if 27 year old

Ryan Braun with 3+ season in MLB will be playing next year.

 

This is what Danzig said:

 

It possibly could work, but if it doesn't, it will cost the team games next year.

 

Then Al said this --

 

Weeks proves it, though many change the subject to say Rickie still isn't good...but, he has improved nicely.

 

I agree with Al that Weeks proves Danzig's concerns valid... It has taken Weeks 3 seasons to go from the worst 2b in the NL

to a below average 2b in the NL, If we want to use Weeks as a benchmark, that is fine, but then let's keep in mind

that Weeks' improvement has been over the space of 3 seasons, and incremental.

 

There is a very real risk that the Brewers will take if they keep Braun at 3rd in 2008.