Dayn Perry: Garland a good fit for Brewers

[JohnBriggs12]

"Garland is not Sheets"

 

Sheets is not Sheets. At least his spot in the rotation isn't as Sheets has missed roughly 40% of his starts over the past 3 seasons. Average in Sheets' numbers with the various guys who replaced him and I'd bet they don't equal Garland. Sure Garland doesn't have the stuff of a healthy Sheets, but we haven't seen that guy since 2004. Factor in not just the huge dropoff everytime he goes down but the negative emotional effect on the team, and it's even worse.

[Katuluu]

Evidently he's only going to get worse moving to the NL, Al. I'm not sure why he keeps getting called a similar pitcher to Suppan, who has been spectacularly average throughout his career, while Garland has been consistently above average in the AL, playing in a hitters park, and with a mediocre defense behind him. And he is still only going to be 28 next year.

[JohnBriggs12]

In 05-06, Garland went a combined 36-17 with a 4.00 ERA pitching in the same division as Detroit, Cleveland, and Minnesota. To call him a 4th or 5th starter really isn't accurate. He's a 2-3 at worst.

[endaround]

Evidently he's only going to get worse moving to the NL, Al. I'm not sure why he keeps getting called a similar pitcher to Suppan, who has been spectacularly average throughout his career, while Garland has been consistently above average in the AL, playing in a hitters park, and with a mediocre defense behind him. And he is still only going to be 28 next year.

Suppan's career FIP 4.84, Garland's career FIP 4.87. Suppan's 2007 FIP 4.38, Garland's 2007 FIP 4.32. Yeah not sure how the idea he's similar to Suppan would surface.

 

[PeaveyFury]

Of course, that fails to account for Park effects and the AL/NL difference.

 

2007 ERA+:

Suppan 97

Garland 112

[And That]

Their ERA+'s the previous 4 seasons, in descending order:

 

Suppan: 97, 108, 119, 103

Garland: 112, 105, 128, 97

 

Potato, potato.

 

Neither are strikeout pitchers, and rely on defense... notice what happened to Suppan's ERA+ when he came to the Brewers. Redrum for Garland's ERA would be nigh impending with Braun, Weeks, Fielder and Hall behind him.

[Katuluu]

Their ERA+'s the previous 4 seasons, in descending order:

 

Suppan: 97, 108, 119, 103

Garland: 112, 105, 128, 97

Are we ignoring age when comparing those as well? Or does that suddenly not matter?

 

[fondybrewfan]

I wouldnt mind trading for Garland to be our 4th or 5th starter. It his worse he would probably be better than Vargas and as good as Bush (At least last years Bush). It would also allow us to offer additional trading chips for an OBP guy.

 

A rotation of

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Villenueva

Suppan

Garland

 

Would give us the option of trading a combination of Bush, Vargas, Capuano, Parra. I could see Bush going to the pen but it was mentioned previously that Parra takes a long time to warm up so I dont see him as a long term bullpen man. Vargas could fill the Elmer Dessens role next year. However if Doug acquires even 3 adequate to good relievers via FA it makes 2 of those 4 expendable.

 

Bullpen of

Vargas

Shouse

Choate

Mahay

Bush

Turnbow

Riske

 

That leaves out Parra and Capuano who in my opinion would have the highest trade values of the 4 excess starting pitchers. Those two could be swung for a late inning guy to take over as closer because I wouldnt be confident in any of the above guys being our closer. But then again Todd Jones can do it why cant David Riske?

[dadofandrew]

I agree Kat, I see Garland being a notch above Suppan, who is a quality SP in his own right, and never mind the age. In fact, my big fear would be Garland's workload on a relatively young arm. Being as he only has a year left on his deal, I think, it would be a nice time to get him with limited risk, if only for '08.

[RockCoCougars]

No thank you. I agree that Garland has many similarities to Suppan both on the field and in the wallet. Pass.

[Tbadder]

I don't mind Garland if the package includes prospects like Ford, Brantley, Vargas, Jeffress (the key player obviously). But I don't think the Sox would go for it. Garland is also, I assume, be worth a couple of high draft choices if he left after a year.

[logan82]

Garland has a career 4ish ERA in the AL, doesn't he? That's a #2 SP at worst.

In front of an average or better defense he is a #2 starter. In front of our defense he is just #2.

 

Seriously though, he has to many similaities to Suppan in style for us to think he can come in and make a big difference even with defensive improvement from our young infield.

[And That]

Are we ignoring age when comparing those as well? Or does that suddenly not matter?

Garland would be mediocre with the Brewers' defense behind him, and cost $12 million dollars, but since he's 4.5 years younger than Suppan, he'd be mediocre with more youthful vigor?

 

[brewerfan82]

Does anyone have any statistics to show that the White Sox were significantly better on defense than the Brewers last year? What's a good site to see some of the more in-depth defensive analysis that is being done with statistics?

 

Just a quick look at some basic (and I know, flawed) defensive statistics, I don't see the huge difference between what the two teams threw out there last season:

 

ESPN - Team Defense

 

The White Sox had one less error than the Brewers (both had a .982 FPCT) and the Brewers had 11 more putouts in 63 fewer chances.

 

I'll concede that the Brewers probably have a worse fielding team than the White Sox (especially with a full season of Braun at 3rd), but I'm not sure I'm convinced that the difference is so great that it outweighs the move from the AL to the NL and more specifically from the AL Central (where rival teams averaged 781 Rs in the season) to the NL Central (where rival teams averaged 741 Rs in the season).

[dadofandrew]

In no way was the defense worth a half a run a game, the normally accepted ERA difference between the AL and NL. It's an overreaction.

[danzig6767]

I do think many here do underrate Garland, but putting a sinkerball pitcher with our very poor infield defense obviously isn't ideal. If we did trade Sheets though, i wouldn't be against trying to acquire Garland. It's not like if we did trade Sheets, another No.1 quality starter will be out there for the Brewers to get.