Dayn Perry: Garland a good fit for Brewers

[homer]

This is based only on the writer's opinion. He lists 10 moves that make sense. I've pasted the two that have ties to the Crew:

8. Jon Garland to the Brewers

Given Ben Sheets' health issues, Dave Bush's struggles and Yovani Gallardo's youth, Milwaukee badly needs a regular in the rotation. Garland would give them that. In each of the past four seasons, Garland has worked at least 208.1 innings, and in each of the last three seasons he's posted a better-than-league-average ERA. Get him in the NL and out of hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular, and he'll look even better. Since the White Sox are starved for young talent, the Brewers should be able to accommodate. A package built around hitting prospect Mat Gamel figures to do the trick.

9. Geoff Jenkins to the Indians

With the expected departure of Trot Nixon and the uncertainty surrounding David Dellucci, the Tribe could use another lefty bat at the flank outfield positions. Jenkins would fit the bill. He's a career .288 AVG/.358 OBP/.525 SLG hitter against right-handed pitching, and manager Eric Wedge could platoon him with Jason Michaels in left or Franklin Gutierrez in right. There would still be a regular role for Jenkins even if Dellucci returns to form.

 

Full article:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7431662

[Chio151]

A package built around hitting prospect Mat Gamel figures to do the trick.

 

Make that happen Melvy.

[endaround]

Garland isn't that good. He's likely the #4 or 5 starter on the Brewers and his salary ($12m) would eat up almost all of the free budget space.

[billyhallfan]

i want nothing to do with garland, unless they eat almost all of his salary, and even then, I don't want Gamel going anywhere,

 

i think he will be something special.

[cooprules]

My only question with the Brewers holding on to Gamel is where will he play?

[brewerfan82]

Just for comparison sake:

 3-Year Splits
Overall *ERA+
Player Age B/T IP ERA WHIP SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 2007 2006 2005

SP Sheets, Ben 29 R/R 404.0 3.63 1.13 8.1 1.6 1.0 117 119 128
SP Gallardo, Yovani 22 R/R 110.1 3.67 1.27 8.2 3.0 0.7 122
SP Parra, Manny 25 L/L 26.1 3.76 1.41 8.9 4.1 0.3 119
SP Villanueva, Carlos 24 R/R 168.0 3.86 1.24 7.4 3.4 1.3 114 123

SP Garland, Jon 28 R/R 640.2 4.07 1.28 4.6 2.0 1.0 112 105 128

SP Suppan, Jeff 33 R/R 591.0 4.11 1.45 5.1 3.0 1.0 97 108 119
SP Capuano, Chris 29 L/L 590.1 4.28 1.36 7.3 2.9 1.2 88 113 107
SP Bush, Dave 28 R/R 532.2 4.68 1.26 6.3 1.9 1.2 88 103 99
SP Vargas, Claudio 30 R/R 434.1 5.04 1.47 6.7 3.2 2.1 88 98 84 

 

I like Garland and would love to have him on the team. I'd say Sheets is significantly better than him (when on the field), but the only other 'potentially' better pitchers are Gallardo, Villanueva and Parra and they don't have nearly the track record established that he does. His contract is pretty large ($12M), but it's only for one season and his addition would make it that much easier to trade off another pitcher or two. If Sheets does get dealt this offseason, acquiring a guy like Garland would be even more important.

[TooLiveBrew]

TooLiveBrew: Letter "Y" not a good fit in the name "Dan"

 

Garland is essentially like adding another Soup. John doesn't have a great K/BB ratio (or SLGA, for that matter), and seems to rely on the ground ball + INF defense, which would not play as well with our infield. If he were cheaper than $12 mil., he'd be worth a look for sure, but as it stands, let's worry about where Gamel is going to play when we get to that point. He can flat-out rake, and who knows how long Braun & Fielder, etc. will be in Milwaukee.

 

Keep those comparison charts comin', bf82. They're great for a quick resource. If I may, a suggestion would be to include FIP & xFIP - if space is an issue, they tend to be more reliable stats than ERA+. You're the chart boss, obviously. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[splitterpfj]

I agree that Garland is similar to Suppan, Garland is younger, and has pitched more innings in recent years (which may or may not prove to be a plus). I wouldn't be opposed to adding him, but he's a middle of the rotation guy - don't expect dominance. I certainly wouldn't go nuts trying to add Garland, but having him for a year wouldn't upset me.

[homer]

What's his GB:FB?

[Oldcity]

He's at least someone who can be depended on to eat innings, but his salary takes most of his value away. He probably would be better in the NL and by getting out of U.S. Cellular, but I'd really want the White Sox to eat a lot of salary.

[TooLiveBrew]

Agreed on that, Stevo.

 

Homer - here are his GB%s from 2004-'07:

 

2004 - 45.5%

2005 - 47.3%

2006 - 42.1%

2007 - 39.4%

 

Interestingly, it seems to be trending lower, while his K/BB rate got worse in 2007. One other interesting trend in that timespan - His HR/FB rate has dipped

 

'04 - 12.3%

'05 - 12.1%

'06 - 9.4%

'07 - 7.4%

 

I wonder if that's simple variance, but it doesn't really look that way.

[JohnBriggs12]

Garland would be an excellent replacement for Sheets if he's traded. The difference in their salaries is minimal. Garland would be a Type A FA also next winter, and bring a high draft pick that would somewhat offset the loss of Gamel, who has defensive concerns.

 

In the NL, Garland is likely a half to three quarters of a run per 9 innings worse than Sheets, but if he posted a 4.20 ERA with over 200 innings, you could put him down for 15 wins on this team and that's more than Sheets has ever won.

 

I can't see the need to get Garland to go with Sheets though. That would allocate too much for the starting rotation and take money needed for bullpen help. It might work but you would have to deal both Capuano and Vargas for prospects only to save their salaries.

[homer]

Garland had a better defense behind him which, given his low K numbers, he'd need to be successful. Don't count on him replicating or improving on his number with the Brewers.

[endaround]

Right, if Sheets is traded Garland would be ok to be added but that's a large step down. And if Sheets isn't traded you basically have to trade Vargas and Capuano. But then Garland will be gone in a year any way and you'll need to find a replacement for his spot. And the difference in results between Capuano, Bush, and Garland next year are going to be incredibly small anyway. Basically its a lot of movement for little if any gain. If you can get him cheap and have a good deal for Capuano sure. But otherwise its spinning your wheels.

[logan82]

If he is only here one year it would be a terrible trade to give up one of our starters for him. Especially when most of our starters are a lot less reliant on GB out than Garland.

I am not that big on "guys who eat innings" after watching Suppan and Vargas this last year. We found out first hand that it is a nice way to say "they kind of suck and I can't find anything better to say about them." Also found out "making every start" and "200 innings per year" means a short 5-6 inning start almost every time out with an occasional 7+ inning start thrown in.

[And That]

Garland's alright, but he's not replacing Sheets, and we don't need him @ $12 mil. If the White Sox were to eat >50% of his salary, we'd definitely need to give up Gamel to get him, and why would we give up Gamel to get yet another #4-type rotation guy?

[Ennder]

It would not surprise me if Garland was the 6th best SP on the team if we traded for him. Those peripherals in 2007 were really ugly and while they would improve a little bit going to the NL I'm not sure it offsets going to a terrible fielding team like the Brewers.

[brewerfan82]

If he is only here one year it would be a terrible trade to give up one of our starters for him. Especially when most of our starters are a lot less reliant on GB out than Garland.

 

I am not that big on "guys who eat innings" after watching Suppan and Vargas this last year. We found out first hand that it is a nice way to say "they kind of suck and I can't find anything better to say about them." Also found out "making every start" and "200 innings per year" means a short 5-6 inning start almost every time out with an occasional 7+ inning start thrown in.

 

 

To be fair, here are the stats on Suppan and Garland's outings from last season:

Suppan (34 starts)

11 > 6.0 IP (32.3%)

26 > 5.0 IP (76.5%)

8 <= 5.0 IP (23.5%)

 

Garland (32 starts)

22 > 6.0 IP (68.8%)

28 > 5.0 IP (87.5%)

4 <= 5.0 IP (12.5%)

 

And compare those to Johan Santana's numbers:

 

Santana (33 starts)

20 > 6.0 IP (60.6%)

30 > 5.0 IP (90.9%)

3 <= 5.0 IP (9.1%)

 

 

While Suppan could definitely stick in games longer, it seems unfair to lump Garland into that category just because he pitches a lot of innings...

[endaround]

But thats the AL. Garland never has to be pulled for pinch hitter. And he played in front of a better defense allowing for more innings.

[TooLiveBrew]

We found out first hand that it is a nice way to say "they kind of suck and I can't find anything better to say about them." Also found out "making every start" and "200 innings per year" means a short 5-6 inning start almost every time out with an occasional 7+ inning start thrown in.

Thanks for the chuckle, logan.

[dadofandrew]

Garland at $12M is more than fair in today's market, no way he would not get $15M per if he were a FA. His name sure has come up a lot in relation to the Crew, first in a Hall swap, and now this.

 

It's eerie that Capuano keeps getting mentioned as well, while we've heard nothing about Bush or Vargas as well. Usually, this is a sign that while not always accurate, talks of some sort have been had.

[splitterpfj]

Honestly, if you look at what they produced, vs what they'd always been, I don't think the Brewers have a right to complain about Suppan and Vargas. Suppan has a career ERA of 4.61 - in 07 he was at 4.62, he had averaged 191 IP over the prior three years, he threw 206 - he is who he is.

 

Vargas is a career #5 starter, who entered last season with career highs of 12 wins and 123 Ks, with an ERA in the 4.9's. He won 11, K'd 107. and had an ERA of 5.09, which is about what you should expect.

 

The problem was not those two guys being who they'd always been, the problem was, Sheets got hurt again, Bush did not take the expected step up, and Capuano completely disappeared. If those three guys had met expectations, Gallardo could have replaced Vargas in the rotation at midseason, and then you've got a much different story.

 

I think Garland is along the lines of Suppan, Capuano, Bush, etc - I do not think he's a clear step up from any of them. Like Suppan, he's been durable, which is a nice plus, but if you deal for Garland, you only make this team better if he's replacing Vargas, and perhaps if he's allowing Bush to help out as a reliever. Garland is Suppan, he is not Sheets.

[DHonks]

Garland would be a good addition. Contrary to what others have said, he wouldn't kill the budget. As of now we are expecting some combination of Jenkins, Koskie, Miller, Graffanino, Mench, Wise, Linebrink, Tbow, Vargas, Cappy, and Cordero to be gone. That means that pretty much no matter how it plays out, you're looking at shaving $10-20 million off the payroll.

[logan82]

Like other people have said though, why do we need another 4th or 5th quality starter?

[dadofandrew]

Garland has a career 4ish ERA in the AL, doesn't he? That's a #2 SP at worst.