Play DM the GM

[colbyjack]

Last year I remember we had a thread in which everyone made a pitch for what they would do to improve the team. I'm going to take a relatively conversative approach, while stealing an idea from JohnBriggs (I hope you don't mind, it was one of the better suggestions I've read here).

 

Trade Chris Capuano and Derrick Turnbow to the Rockies for Brian Fuentes

As noted in the discussion that led to this proposal, the Rockies have quite a few free agents this offseason, particularly on their pitching staff, and the collective price between Capuano and Turnbow could be close to what Fuentes would receive in arbitration, so this truly is a two for one deal for them. Upon acquiring Fuentes, I would try to sign him to an extension in the 3-year, $20 million range ($5.5M in '08, $7M in '09, $7.5M in '10) making him the team's closer. The Rockies also have a young reliever that they selected in the first round last year named Casey Weathers that could make a case to make the big-league roster out of spring training, and in making this move I am allowing Cordero to leave, who IMO is likely going to anyway given the money he is poised to command. Capuano could be a good fit in Colorado with his fastball-changeup approach, not to mention the HRs he tends to give up with the Brewers may not be as magnified when he's on the road vs. division rivals such as the Padres and Dodgers. Turnbow is comparable to FA LaTroy Hawkins.

 

Sign Kenny Lofton

Lofton is the perfect stopgap for LF, can play any of the three OF positions, can leadoff to spell Weeks from time to time and would become the team's everyday #2 hitter with good on-base and efficient base-stealing skills. He made $5M this past year, so a one-year deal somewhere in the $5-6M range should make this happen fairly easily without trying to get fancy figuring out a way to land players such as Randy Winn, Ryan Church or even Carl Crawford.

 

Re-sign Scott Linebrink

I'm thinking a deal similar to Bobby Howry's 3-year, $12M deal should get this done, although the total package value may have to be closer to $14-15M to keep him in Milwaukee. Losing Cordero and Turnbow increases the need to keep Linebrink.

 

Tenders

I would also keep Kevin Mench, Johnny Estrada and Claudio Vargas. The team seems prepared to let Matt Wise go. We've talked about how unlikely it is to improve upon Estrada, unless you're set on finding a defensive stalwart to take him place. Mench has value off of the bench vs. LHPs, and Vargas provides nice pitching depth. To make things easy, I would also re-sign Damian Miller to a one-year, $2M contract, as he's a decent backup and I'm partial to the fact that he's a Wisconsin native.

 

Roster

I'm going to show the players projected salaries next to their names with the total below. Keep in mind, with so many arbitration-eligible players, many of the figures are my best guesses, so go easy on me if you disagree with the monetary amounts.

 

Starting Lineup (Total: $20.165M):

 

2B: Rickie Weeks ($2M)

LF: Kenny Lofton ($6M

3B: Ryan Braun ($415K)

1B: Prince Fielder ($500K)

RF: Corey Hart ($450K)

CF: Bill Hall ($4.8M)

SS: J.J. Hardy ($2M)

C: Johnny Estrada ($4M)

 

Bench (Total: $9.75M)

 

C: Damian Miller ($2M)

IF: Craig Counsell ($2.8M)

IF/OF: Joe Dillon ($500K)

OF: Kevin Mench ($3.5M)

OF: Gabe Gross ($950K)

 

Starting Rotation (Total: $23.45M):

 

SP1: Ben Sheets ($11M)

SP2: Jeff Suppan ($8M)

SP3: Yovani Gallardo ($400K)

SP4: Carlos Villanueva ($450K)

SP5: Claudio Vargas ($3.5M)

 

Bullpen (Total: $13.6M):

 

CL: Brian Fuentes ($5.5M)

RP: Scott Linebrink ($3M)

RP: Dave Bush ($1.25M)

RP: Manny Parra ($350K)

RP: Brian Shouse ($1.5M)

RP: Seth McClung ($1M)

RP: Spurling/Stetter/Aquino (take your pick, $1M allotted for this)

 

Total: $66.965M

 

I like the idea of keeping most of the pitching depth we have, particularly since the team won't have many/any promising starters at the AAA to call upon when/if needed. Some people may rather see Vargas or Villanueva in the bullpen as opposed to Bush, but that's easily interchangeable, and I like having a couple of guys in the bullpen that could start in a pinch, especially considering Ben Sheets hasn't exactly been reliable to pitch an entire season. Plus, they could be called upon to pitch more than just one inning+. I also see the Brewers continue to go with a 12-man pitching staff to try and keep the innings from piling up on some of the key relievers earlier in the season in an attempt to keep them stronger deeper into the season.

 

The overall total doesn't seem that high compared to what it was this past year (around $70M), but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Brewers make an attempt at offering Prince Fielder a contract to extend him through his arby years (of which I believe he's only one year away). Offering him more money for next year may help convince Fielder and his agent, Scott Boras, who typically takes arby cases year-to-year to sign longer term, and possibly getting him signed through his arby years and one year of free agency. Payroll flexibility will be key as this young team could get very pricey very soon.

 

Also, I'm sure some of my arby figures are off, so these numbers add some flexibility for that as well. Plus, the team could use a little extra money (roughy $2M) since they will have two extra, early draft picks to sign in this scenario by losing Cordero.

 

You may see there is no mention of Tony Gwynn Jr. He too would provide good depth back at AAA and would likely be the first bat called up, and may even be an option to replace one of the pitchers if the team goes with a 11-man staff. Six OFs on the roster may not be ideal, but Gwynn could have value late in games as a versatile pinch-running specialist of sorts. He also could be used as trade bait.

 

Defensively I'm not proposing anything drastic, because based on the comments from Doug Melvin it doesn't seem as though he plans on changing things, instead hoping that the young players he does have improve, even if some seem as though they need more improvement than what would seem possible for them to even pass as average.

 

Finally, while I'm open to having this scrutinized and torn apart, I would only asked that if you do so please what your ideal plan of attack would be this offseason for the sake of discussion. Fire away.

[TooLiveBrew]

As usual, nice post cj. If Mench can be had for under $5 mil. (and by all accounts it appears so), the Brewers would be fools to pass. Another random comment - would a package of TBow & Cappy net a throw-in type player from Colorado - like another reliever?

 

I am very much on-board with Lofton as a stop-gap in LF to pair with Mench (Menchton? Lonch?), too - especially if he's $6-8 mil. for 2008. A change I'd make would be Vargas in the 'pen with Bush as a SP. As for the "take your pick" RP, it might be time to see what value Stetter could offer as the low-leverage guy - and an additional LHP.

[craigharmann]

Hey Colby, not trying to rip on you here, but Corey Dillon was the running back for the Bengals and Patriots.....I'm thinking you were looking at JOE Dillon for the bench...I think you're right on track with your plans. Not really a whole lot of change needs to happen for me. I'd even go with Mench and Gross as the LF platoon if another suitable bat cannot be found.

[colbyjack]

Thanks for pointing that out Craig, I'll make that switch. Unless you think Corey Dillon can make the switch to MLB a la Brian Jordan http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[dadofandrew]

Colby, I feel your plan would pretty well match mine, so I will not bother making a separate one, but I would also try and sign Coco and Mark Loretta. I would offer Mench arby and then try and trade him for a RP.

 

Also, isn't Bush arby eligible? He seems like a super 2.

[And That]

Picking up Mench's option and paying him $3.5-$4 mil so he can have 160-190 great PAs against lefties and another 140 poor PAs against righties doesn't strike me as the best use of resources. I'd rather Dillon (or someone else presently outside the organization, and cheaper) take over Mench's LHP-hitting duties and spend the money elsewhere. The Brewers have spent $4 mil in much worse ways over the years, but I'd rather have a reliever and Dillon for the same amount of money.

 

Edit: Furthermore!, having Mench on the roster tempts Yost to use him against righties. Melvin needs to make this roster as Yost-proof as possible.

[EbbaStClaire]

I posted some GM thoughts earlier today on the Major League thread primarily because I proposed no trades. Maybe someone who knows how to move the psotings around could move mine over here.

[edod]

I'd like to see Rottino on the bench instead of Mench or perhaps instead of the 12th pitcher. He provides a lot of options and I think he will be a valuable bat off the bench, assuming he doesn't become the third catcher in Yost's eyes and never gets used. The difference money spent (if in place of Mench) could go a long way.

[colbyjack]

The Brewers can afford to overpay Mench at this juncture given their payroll flexibility. I wouldn't want to swap him with Rottino personally because Rottino is largely unproven at the MLB level, and few crush lefties as well as Mench does, and the Brewers do have plenty of versatility from other players (such as Counsell and Dillon). It's a pricey luxury, but manageable.

 

When the team needs the kind of money to keep players like Fielder, Braun and Gallardo around, Mench is one of the first players to go, and overall the team will need to spend less while being more creative to put together an effective bench, both in terms of production and payroll.

 

Although I do agree with (and enjoy) Toby's comments about Yost-proofing the roster. I would hope picking up a player like Lofton in my scenario (which also could be accomplished with players like Winn, Church, Scott, and other frequently discussed OF possibilities) would lessen the possibility of Mench seeing time against RHPs if it is known from day one that the everyday OF alignment should be Lofton-Hall-Hart.

 

As for Bush, he is arby eligible, and I did give him a modest pay increase. He may command more, although I openly admitted that my guesses may be off.

[dadofandrew]

First year arby salary starts at about $1.75M, and goes up to the $3M range. Bush may well be about $2.5M.

[brewerfan82]

Here's my stab at it. I'm mostly in agreement with you colby, with a few tweaks for guys I prefer.

 

Trade Chris Capuano, Derrick Turnbow and Zach Jackson (or other B level prospect) to the Nationals for Chad Cordero

Not sure what it would take to get him, but I would love this guy closing for us over the next couple seasons. If he costs too much I'd be on board to acquire Fuentes as colby suggested, but I think it'd be foolish to dish out the money for CoCo that he's going to get.

 

Trade Claudio Vargas and [b level prospect] to the Astros for Luke Scott

I really don't like Vargas and I really do like Scott. So if something like this is possible and it happens, I will jump for joy!

 

Sign Jeff Cirillo

I'm still not sold on Joe Dillon and I'd love to see Captain RBI back with the team. Hopefully a $2mil offer would suffice.

 

Sign David Riske

I know a lot of people think this is buying high, but the guy's been pretty darn good over the past few seasons. 3.04 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the past three seasons. A deal averaging out $3.5 mil per would be nice if doable.

 

Re-sign Scott Linebrink

See 'Sign David Riske'. Dudes have been pretty similar over the past three seasons (3.03 ERA, 1.20 WHIP for Linebrink).

 

Starting Lineup (Total: $10.315M):

 

2B Weeks, Rickie ($2M)

LF Scott, Luke ($500K)

3B Braun, Ryan ($415K)

1B Fielder, Prince ($500K)

RF Hart, Corey ($450K)

CF Gross, Gabe ($950K)

SS Hardy, JJ ($1.5M)

C Estrada, Johnny ($4M)

 

Bench (Total: $15.1M):

 

C Miller, Damian ($2M)

SS Counsell, Craig ($2.8M)

3B Cirillo, Jeff ($2M)

CF Hall, Bill ($4.8M)

LF Mench, Kevin ($3.5M)

 

Starting Rotation (Total: $21.85M):

 

SP Sheets, Ben ($11M)

SP Gallardo, Yovani ($400K)

SP Suppan, Jeff ($8M)

SP Villanueva, Carlos ($450K)

SP Bush, Dave ($2M)

 

Bullpen (Total: $16.39M):

 

CL Cordero, Chad ($5M)

RP Linebrink, Scott ($3.5M)

RP Riske, David ($3.5M)

RP Wise, Matt ($1.5M)

RP Shouse, Brian ($1.5M)

RP Parra, Manny ($390K)

RP McClung, Seth ($1M)

 

Total: $63.655M

[And That]

The thing about having Mench and Lofton on the same roster is that I'd worry about someone Lofton's age breaking down more than I would a Luke Scott or Austin Kearns. If Lofton broke down and Mench was still kicking the dugout steps, you know he's the option Yost would first go to. I'd have less of a problem with Mench and Scott/Kearns, but that's still $3.5-$4 mil I'd rather not spend on Kevin Mench. You say payroll flexibility, I say better spend elsewhere.

[RobertR]

Fine, I'll play along.

 

Trade Sheets, Capuano, and Iribarren to New York for Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera

Cano's defense makes it worthwhile. I move Weeks to 3B and Braun to LF

 

Trade Melky Cabrera and Alcides Escobar to Texas for Joaquin Benoit

Meet your new closer.

 

Resign Linebrink

3 years, $12 million is my guess.

 

I'll figure out the cash later, but...

 

Starting Lineup

3B Weeks

2B Cano

LF Braun

1B Fielder

RF Hart

CF Hall

C Estrada

SS Hardy

 

Bench

Member of the Backup Catcher's Union

Gross

Dillon

Counsell

Free Agent Utility Man (preferably one that can backup 1B) Hinske?

 

Starting Rotation

Gallardo

Suppan

Villanueva

Parra

Bush

 

Bullpen

RP Vargas

RP McClung

RP Stetter

RP Shouse

RP Turnbow

RP Linebrink

CL Benoit

 

Robert

[dadofandrew]

I have no interest in Cirillo as long as Loretta is on the market. He is a good 3B, but just competent at 2B and can barely play SS. Lo can play any IF spot (would be nice to play 1B once a month versus a LHP, though Jeff would too) though has poor range at SS, his offense makes him just a bit below average.

 

Jeff simply struggles versus RHP. Considering 80% of all pitchers are rightys, that makes for a poor PH.

[TooLiveBrew]

The ironic thing about the 'Yost-proofing' comment is that Melvin has had the chance for quite some time now to 'Yost-proof' the Brewers, and instead decided to continue onward.

[trwi7]

Trade Sheets, Capuano, and Iribarren to New York for Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera

Cano's defense makes it worthwhile. I move Weeks to 3B and Braun to LF

 

Starting Rotation

Gallardo

Suppan

Villanueva

Parra

Bush

 

Bullpen

RP Vargas

RP McClung

RP Stetter

RP Shouse

RP Turnbow

RP Linebrink

CL Benoit

Yikes two starting pitchers for a weak hitting center fielder and a nice but not great 2B? Our pitching is pretty bad after this.

[TooLiveBrew]

Robert, no offense intended, but isn't the superior defensive player Melky Cabrera?

[dadofandrew]

Robert, you dealt a lot of our SP depth and ended up with Cano. Benoit is a step down from Coco. Cano is a defensive upgrade, but Weeks has never played 3B, what happens if he can't? I don't see that team as being better than the '07 version.

 

Linebrink will have a dozen teams offering him $4M per. The team that gets him will pay $5-6M, or be near his home.

[DHonks]

I think I like the idea of adding Loretta, but that's also greed, since he and Cirillo have been my favorite Brewers since Molitor retired. Loretta has also played some OF. He'd be a very nice contact guy. I like Dillon, but if we can add Loretta instead, I'd do it.

[RobertR]

I ended up with Cano, Benoit, and a lot of cash to maneuver with. And a much better defense.

 

Using ERA+, Benoit had a better year than Cordero as well.

 

Robert

[trwi7]

I ended up with Cano, Benoit, and a lot of cash to maneuver with. And a much better defense.

Yeah also traded our best pitcher+ another starting pitcher to get them. And you don't know ofr sure that the defense will be better. For all we know Weeks could be worse at 3rd than Braun.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'd rather let Linebrink go than Cordero.

[RobertR]

I ended up with Cano, Benoit, and a lot of cash to maneuver with. And a much better defense.

Yeah also traded our best pitcher+ another starting pitcher to get them. And you don't know ofr sure that the defense will be better. For all we know Weeks could be worse at 3rd than Braun.

 

Is that possible? Then fine, 2009, Weeks moves to CF and Hall moves to 3B. 2B will be much better in the meantime. Maybe as much as 3 wins defensively.

 

It's also possible that Weeks will be right at home at 3B with above average range and quickness. Moving players to the easier part of the defensive spectrum works pretty regularly. Cirillo started out as a second baseman. So did Molitor.

 

And, really, the rumor is Sheets and Capuano for Crawford. If they're considering that, they should also consider another part of the rumor.

 

Robert

[trwi7]

And, really, the rumor is Sheets and Capuano for Crawford. If they're considering that, they should also consider another part of the rumor.

It's not Sheets AND Capuano, it's one or the other.

[RobertR]

Well if it's Sheets or Capuano, then I'll pretend that the target shifts from Crawford to Cano. The rationale was just a variation on what DM is apparently considering.

 

Heck, take that $11 million and turn it around into Cordero and go ahead and try to trade for Benoit as a setup man as well. And I'd still target Fuentes if I had another starter to bargain with.

 

Robert