2008 Brewers ZiPS Projection

[Robideaux]

I don't know that much about their projection methods, but I know some people use them as a tool. Thought some might find them interesting. www.baseballthinkfactory.org

 

Activated link - b19

[Robideaux]

I don't know that much about their projection methods, but I know some people use them as a tool. Thought some might find them interesting. www.baseballthinkfactory.org

 

Activated link - b19

[DuWayne Steurer]

Nothing too crazy, one way or the other there.

 

I think Weeks will have more than 65 walks given 500 plate appearances.

 

I certainly hope JJ won't regress to a sub .740 OPS.

 

A projection of .810 OPS for Hall, with 20 homeruns seems fair.

 

Almost an .800 OPS projected for Joe Dillon. I don't see it, but I wouldn't say it's not possible. (The projection has him at close to 400 PA's)

[DuWayne Steurer]

Nothing too crazy, one way or the other there.

 

I think Weeks will have more than 65 walks given 500 plate appearances.

 

I certainly hope JJ won't regress to a sub .740 OPS.

 

A projection of .810 OPS for Hall, with 20 homeruns seems fair.

 

Almost an .800 OPS projected for Joe Dillon. I don't see it, but I wouldn't say it's not possible. (The projection has him at close to 400 PA's)

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for linking that, Robideaux. I agree with RoCo's "nothing too crazy" sentiment. Also agree that they've got Weeks projected much lower in BBs, but I also felt across the board it was a tad conservative for him. If JJ & Rickie each only post 15 HR in 2008, I'll be really surprised (I know the projections likely don't take into account Rickie's wrist feeling better). I also have a sneaking feeling that Fielder will see more than 83 BBs.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for linking that, Robideaux. I agree with RoCo's "nothing too crazy" sentiment. Also agree that they've got Weeks projected much lower in BBs, but I also felt across the board it was a tad conservative for him. If JJ & Rickie each only post 15 HR in 2008, I'll be really surprised (I know the projections likely don't take into account Rickie's wrist feeling better). I also have a sneaking feeling that Fielder will see more than 83 BBs.

[TheBrewer]

On the offense:

-Fielder's numbers regress a little - .289-44HR-106RBI

-Hart's numbers don't improve - .289-25HR-85RBI-22SB

-Braun's numbers regress a little - .294-33HR-93RBI-15SB

-Rickie Weeks doesn't improve - .254-15HR-47RBI-23SB

-Billy Hall improves from last season - .270-20HR-69RBI-8SB

-Hardy declines a good amount - .264-15HR-54RBI-

 

I'm not sure how these work, but I've always taken a look at them to say the least. But in my opinion these numbers deffinatly regress from what the club did last season, and the improvements I thought they were making, and the improvements/experience they would have going into next season, I thought/think they'll be alot better than that.

 

While Fielder could wind up around there I don't doubt that, he's not going to hit 50HR's every season.. Hart I'm expecting he'll improve alot, Braun I think will be closer to 40HR's around there and more SB's. Rickie really did well the second half, and I'm hoping and thinking he'll be around .280/25-30HR/30-40SB. Hall I'm not the biggest fan of anymore but it's good to see better #'s than what he did this season, Hardy I don't think he'll hit 25HR's like he did this season, but I doubt his BA will decline, I think he'll be around .280-.290.

[TheBrewer]

On the offense:

-Fielder's numbers regress a little - .289-44HR-106RBI

-Hart's numbers don't improve - .289-25HR-85RBI-22SB

-Braun's numbers regress a little - .294-33HR-93RBI-15SB

-Rickie Weeks doesn't improve - .254-15HR-47RBI-23SB

-Billy Hall improves from last season - .270-20HR-69RBI-8SB

-Hardy declines a good amount - .264-15HR-54RBI-

 

I'm not sure how these work, but I've always taken a look at them to say the least. But in my opinion these numbers deffinatly regress from what the club did last season, and the improvements I thought they were making, and the improvements/experience they would have going into next season, I thought/think they'll be alot better than that.

 

While Fielder could wind up around there I don't doubt that, he's not going to hit 50HR's every season.. Hart I'm expecting he'll improve alot, Braun I think will be closer to 40HR's around there and more SB's. Rickie really did well the second half, and I'm hoping and thinking he'll be around .280/25-30HR/30-40SB. Hall I'm not the biggest fan of anymore but it's good to see better #'s than what he did this season, Hardy I don't think he'll hit 25HR's like he did this season, but I doubt his BA will decline, I think he'll be around .280-.290.

[TooLiveBrew]

I really am convinced that 2008 is going to be the year of Rickie. I agree, thebrewer - I think his power numbers that everyone's been waiting to see are going to be there like they were this past season after he got his wrist cleaned up. I'd expect JJ to take a bit of a dip, but not quite as extreme as the ZiPS project. For Hall to bounce back even slightly more than shown wouldn't surprise me one bit.

 

 

Player Spotlight - Ryan Braun

Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS

Optimistic (15%) .317 .377 .632 152 574 105 182 40 6 43 124 54 107 21 6

Mean .294 .332 .554 143 538 85 158 33 4 33 93 30 113 15 7

Pessimistic (15%) .274 .318 .505 114 430 59 118 23 2 24 62 28 97 9 6

 

I found this an interesting read, and a way to help understand the ZiPS a bit better. My guess, it seems, is that for Braun he'll be somewhere above the mean & below their "Optimistic." They don't show the "Optimistic" for Weeks, but whatever that is would probably be my guess on him.

 

Encouraging to see their projections on YoGa & some of our other pitchers, but frustrating (yet understandable) to see only 23 starts projected for Benny (27 in their optimistic projection). This team needs pitching, and badly, for 2008.

 

 

Player Spotlight - Ben Sheets

ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K

Optimistic (15%) 2.93 15 6 27 27 175 155 57 16 26 166

Mean 3.72 11 7 23 23 145 143 60 17 27 125

Pessimistic (15%) 4.62 7 8 19 19 117 126 60 17 28 95

 

Top Near-Age Comps: Bret Saberhagen, Scott Sanderson

 

 

That "Optimistic" line makes me drool. Please, Ben!

 

EDIT: Sorry I don't know how to make the charts pretty. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

I really am convinced that 2008 is going to be the year of Rickie. I agree, thebrewer - I think his power numbers that everyone's been waiting to see are going to be there like they were this past season after he got his wrist cleaned up. I'd expect JJ to take a bit of a dip, but not quite as extreme as the ZiPS project. For Hall to bounce back even slightly more than shown wouldn't surprise me one bit.

 

 

Player Spotlight - Ryan Braun

Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS

Optimistic (15%) .317 .377 .632 152 574 105 182 40 6 43 124 54 107 21 6

Mean .294 .332 .554 143 538 85 158 33 4 33 93 30 113 15 7

Pessimistic (15%) .274 .318 .505 114 430 59 118 23 2 24 62 28 97 9 6

 

I found this an interesting read, and a way to help understand the ZiPS a bit better. My guess, it seems, is that for Braun he'll be somewhere above the mean & below their "Optimistic." They don't show the "Optimistic" for Weeks, but whatever that is would probably be my guess on him.

 

Encouraging to see their projections on YoGa & some of our other pitchers, but frustrating (yet understandable) to see only 23 starts projected for Benny (27 in their optimistic projection). This team needs pitching, and badly, for 2008.

 

 

Player Spotlight - Ben Sheets

ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K

Optimistic (15%) 2.93 15 6 27 27 175 155 57 16 26 166

Mean 3.72 11 7 23 23 145 143 60 17 27 125

Pessimistic (15%) 4.62 7 8 19 19 117 126 60 17 28 95

 

Top Near-Age Comps: Bret Saberhagen, Scott Sanderson

 

 

That "Optimistic" line makes me drool. Please, Ben!

 

EDIT: Sorry I don't know how to make the charts pretty. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[joshjs]

Just chiming in to say I, too, have a good feeling about Rickie Weeks in 2008.

[joshjs]

Just chiming in to say I, too, have a good feeling about Rickie Weeks in 2008.

[Team Canada]

Both Weeks and Hardy seemed a bit low to me. Not that they couldn't end up with those numbers, but I'd definitely be disappointed if they did.

[Team Canada]

Both Weeks and Hardy seemed a bit low to me. Not that they couldn't end up with those numbers, but I'd definitely be disappointed if they did.

[SheetsCyYoung04]

Not a shocking revelation, but we arnt very close to having an even average bullpen next year. Of our only 2 average or slightly above-average relievers one had a 6+ era in the second half last season and one is rattled when he hits a guy in the face with a change-up- and goes on the DL from a salad tongs.

[SheetsCyYoung04]

Not a shocking revelation, but we arnt very close to having an even average bullpen next year. Of our only 2 average or slightly above-average relievers one had a 6+ era in the second half last season and one is rattled when he hits a guy in the face with a change-up- and goes on the DL from a salad tongs.

[dadofandrew]

Zips was very negative last year and it worked for them. However, they looked silly with Hart and Hardy's improvements.

[dadofandrew]

Zips was very negative last year and it worked for them. However, they looked silly with Hart and Hardy's improvements.

[TerraceReserved]

So Rickie gets 78 walks in 409 AB's but they have him at 65 in 465 AB? And Prince is expected for a dropoff in walks when he consistently walked better the whole year and is more of a power threat than ever? Eh, sounds very pessimistic and a bit off.

 

And why does it have a bunch of the slugging numbers decreasing? (besides that of Hardy) It has Braun, Fielder, and Hart dropping, eccspecially those Prince and Ryan. There's got to be a reason they were docked there, regressing to the mean a bit, but 50 points for Prince and 80 for Braun? Thats seems very unlikely to me.

[TerraceReserved]

So Rickie gets 78 walks in 409 AB's but they have him at 65 in 465 AB? And Prince is expected for a dropoff in walks when he consistently walked better the whole year and is more of a power threat than ever? Eh, sounds very pessimistic and a bit off.

 

And why does it have a bunch of the slugging numbers decreasing? (besides that of Hardy) It has Braun, Fielder, and Hart dropping, eccspecially those Prince and Ryan. There's got to be a reason they were docked there, regressing to the mean a bit, but 50 points for Prince and 80 for Braun? Thats seems very unlikely to me.

[Fatter than Joey]

Thats seems very unlikely to me.

 

Braun can't hit LHP like he did last year -- It is unsustainable.

[Fatter than Joey]

Thats seems very unlikely to me.

 

Braun can't hit LHP like he did last year -- It is unsustainable.

[dadofandrew]

I think Robert said once Zips is usually the most pessimistic and the most accurate. I would agree on both counts, though they almost always miss the breakouts, which to me, is why projections are made.

[dadofandrew]

I think Robert said once Zips is usually the most pessimistic and the most accurate. I would agree on both counts, though they almost always miss the breakouts, which to me, is why projections are made.

[TooLiveBrew]

Being pessimistic (or as they term it, "Mean"-istic) would seem to inherently miss breakout seasons. As a general rule, though, I like it - as it'd be more irresponsible imho for them to be projecting better than what many players end up doing.