Braun named Rookie of the Year in closest NL vote ever

[patrickgpe]

this seems to be such a polarizing topic coupled with that there homers on both sides who thinks there player should of won and everyone else has a deep opinion. I can't get past tulo's road splits and if you project it over a season without the benefit of coors field (even with the humidor). If he batted in the mid 200's over the course of the season he would of have no chance no matter what he did in the field, a .317 home average helps alot.

[milwaukeesportsfan]

First of all, congratulations to a well deserved ROY award, Braun!

 

Next, I just can't help but feel that there is still this mysterious anti-Milwaukee sentiment in the national media. For the sake of argument, if Ryno was on the Cubs, would the vote have been as close? The Yankees? Would everybody be making as big of a deal about his defensive shortcomings if he were in one of those markets, or would they be more focused on the historical rookie numbers that he put up?

 

How many times has a rookie of the year vote had so much based on a players defensive ability? Ferchryssakes, Roger Dorn (aka Ben Greive) won ROY once upon a time. Even Van Smack is on the Tulo-greatdefensiveshortstopswhohitforpowerarehardtocomeby-bandwagon. Gimmee a friggin break.

 

To me it comes down to what puts more butts in the seats, offense or defense?

[Fatter than Joey]

Braun had the worst fielding pct. since 1910 -- It gets people attention.

 

If Braun would have been simply below average, he probably wins this hands down -- instead Braun was historically awful.

 

I don't think that there is any "anti-Milwaukee" national media -- anymore than I think the media is "pro-Colorado".

 

It's nice to see writers looking at WARP, win-shares, BRAA and the such rather than just adding up RBIs and BA.

 

I think it is close and the vote reflected it -- simple as that, no conspiracies.

[TooLiveBrew]

Tulo had a .719 OPS on the road, there is no way to not take pause at that, I'm sorry if you think it is just luck but there just isn't enough sample to know what it was. Maybe he just got lucky at Coors and is really not as good as his stats last year, maybe he got unlucky on the road, who knows.

Yea, hard to tell. Let me put it this way - I don't think he's a .960 type of player, and I don't think he's a .720 type player. His minor leauge #s were around .800-.830. With the Coors Field advantage, and likely better performance away next year, I'd guesstimate him an .825-ish OPS guy. When you add superb D in that equation, you've got a very nice SS

[homer]

Funny, the Rockies fans are saying the media is anti-Colorado.

[Oldcity]

Press conference live on WSSP for anyone who's interested. Not much substance, as expected, but something to listen to.

[patrickgpe]

i really wish there was someway than to allow 30 sports writers 100% say in the official rookie of the year. Can't baseball develop a formula where players, executives, and writers have some say. Id say fans too, but then we would have the same problem has with the writers. Id feel better if people inside the game had some say, than just writers who have great bias. This is most proved that someone voted Kendrick over Braun on his ballot.

[TerraceReserved]

This is from the article patrickgpe posted:

 

And that is why Braun, a wonderful hitter and lousy fielder, beat Tulowitzki, a slightly less wonderful hitter and spectacular fielder at a more difficult position.

 

Huh? True, Braun is a wonderful hitter and lousy fielder, and Tulo is a spectacular fielder, but saying he's a slightly less wonderful hitter is insane. Bruan was histoically great, and Tulo was pretty good. Their offense is not even close, they're worlds apart. Could this guy at least try to be a bit more careful in his word choice? Tulo was 10 BRAA, Braun was 36. And this is with Coors inflating his stats by who knows how much, and with Bruan not even playing a whole season! What would it be without Coors, only 5 or 0 BRAA for Tulo?

 

I think a couple people have brought up WARP in this debate also. Can that even be used with any degree of reliability? It uses Fielding Runs (FRAA) which is the worst new age defensive metric, and distorts actual performance. FRAA has Tulo at +30 and Bruan at -27, a six win difference. As bad as Bruan was and as good as Tulo was, there is absolutely no way that is accurate. I don't know how to access it, but I remember someone posted that UZR had Bruan at about -18 or so, and Tulo at around + 20. That sounds a load more realitistic and accurate. All I'm going at here is that imo WARP should not be used to judge a player.

[endaround]

But FRAA matches up with everything else in this case. MGL had Braun at least at -28 runs (he never released the full number). Russ also linked to this

 

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfduzefA8-s0_iYw&gid=3

 

Which gives defensive numbers based off of hardball times RZR and OOZ ratings and it has Braun at -32.1 and Tulowitzki at 27.6. Thats a difference of 59.7 somewhere in the range of 6 to 8 win difference. Braun is just that bad.

[Tbadder]

Is there anyone here on this forum who would take Tulo over Braun? Come on out yourself! Braun is better--period. I'm not saying Tulo isn't good, but if Braun is really this good he's insane Pujos good. If defense really is this important why aren't we dumping half the team?

[TooLiveBrew]

Pujols is a good fielder and doesn't negate the vast majority of his offensive production, though. Offense is just sexier & easier to count.

[Tbadder]

So Tulo is better?

[TooLiveBrew]

That's a good question, and I'm not sure. Given that half of his stats are from Coors Field, it's really hard to tell. Personally I think I peg him as an .800/.825ish OPS guy, with some give & take. Coupled with great D at the premium defensive position, and it'd be hard to argue that he isn't better at this point. Then again, if Brauny can improve even slightly in the field, his offense would obviously carry more value.

 

Basically, unless Tulo were playing in a more neutral field, there's really no easy answer to which one is better imho.

[Tbadder]

fair enough, maybe I'm too much of a homer on this one.

[Baldkin]

Best SLG % by rookies, all time:

 

1. Mark McGwire-.618 (1987,1)

2. Wally Berger-.614 (1930)

3. Albert Pujols-.610 (2001)

4. Ted Williams-.609 (1939,4)

5. Hal Trosky-.588 (1934,4)

6. Walt Dropo-.583 (1950,2)

7. Dale Alexander-.580 (1929,5)

8. Johnny Mize-.577 (1936,3)

9. Joe DiMaggio-.576 (1936)

10. Mike Greenwell-.570 (1987)

11. Fred Lynn-.566 (1975,1)

12. Mike Piazza-.561 (1993,4)

13. Frank Robinson-.558 (1956,4)

14. Dick Allen-.557 (1964,3)

15. Tony Oliva-.557 (1964,3)

16. Rico Carty-.554 (1964,4)

17. Jason Bay-.550 (2004)

Everyone talks about how great Tulo is defensively. Braun had the best SLG for a rookie EVER!

EVER!

 

And barely won it.

[endaround]

He barely won it because he had the worst defense of any 3B ever, rookie or no, in the live ball era

[Fatter than Joey]

Is there anyone here on this forum who would take Tulo over Braun?

 

With Braun in LF no, at 3b probably.

 

If defense really is this important why aren't we dumping half the team?

 

I think because there are better options than dumping Weeks/Braun -- namely moving them to the OF.

 

Braun had a great season, but the Brewers lost more than they won after Braun's arrival. You have to wonder

even with the infusion of Braun's bat how did they not win more. -- The bad defense makes the pitching

worse, etc.

 

Defense is really this important.

[homer]

People keep talking about Braun having the best slugging percentage ever but he had the SECOND WORST FIELDING PERCENTAGE SINCE 1910. That negates a lot of his offense. I'm not saying he shouldn't have won the award, but if anyone thinks Braun 'deserved' it or that Tulo was 'overrated' you are sorely mistaken.

[Mass Haas]

Taking a break from the statistical aspect of the vote, there's a minor league thread that provides some interesting background on the route to maturity Braun took on his path to the Brewers:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=9290

 

Separate from the voting analysis, so a different thread, different forum...

[JJHardy7]

I honestly don't think it's a big deal either way. I'd rather make the playoffs and not win a single regular season award. We'll see if Braun's defense improves and if Tulo is a good hitter outside of Coors in the coming years. They'll both be fun to watch, but it's only a rookie of the year award.

[pitchleague]

somebody mentioned that Braun is Albert Pujols good and I agree with that. I can not look it up at work, but didn't Pujols play 3B (and some OF and 1B) during his rookie season? If I remember correctly, he wasn't that great of a fielder at the hot corner, either. Once he was given a full-time position (1B) he really took off.

[JJHardy7]

I don't know if this is the right word...but shouldn't Braun get a little credit for being able to swing the bat so well while struggling in the field? Maybe credit is the wrong word, but it's not uncommon to see a player bring defensive struggles into the offensive area.

[craigharmann]

DM, just on WTMJ right now said that Braun told him that he feels that he could play either 3rd or Left and will do what is best for the team. The question was about Braun staying on 3rd, and Melvin seemed to say that he, as well as Braun, was open to the possibility if they can sign a free agent or trade for a guy to play 3rd. Good stuff!

[trwi7]

DM, just on WTMJ right now said that Braun told him that he feels that he could play either 3rd or Left and will do what is best for the team. The question was about Braun staying on 3rd, and Melvin seemed to say that he, as well as Braun, was open to the possibility if they can sign a free agent or trade for a guy to play 3rd. Good stuff!

 

Great news. I'm glad to hear that Braun will do what is best for the team even if he doesn't want to be moved off of 3rd. I still think Hart should be the everyday CF'er next year. He played well there.

[craigharmann]

DM made it sound like Braun approached him after the ROY press conference. I'm excited by that. An outfield of Braun, Hall and Hart isn't bad at all!