Braun named Rookie of the Year in closest NL vote ever

[RoseBowlMtg]

As for Tulowitzki leading his team on improbable run, heck his September offensive numbers (.273/.341/.518) paled in comparison to 4 of his teammates, Holliday, Helton, Atkins, and Hawpe) while Braun was very good also playing in the heat of a playoff chase batting .308/.354/.644 for September.

JohnnyBriggs those are Tulo's September numbers but you should include his October numbers also where he went 4-7 scoring 3 runs with a double and triple.

 

Sept numbers: .273/.341/.518

Sept #'s + Oct 1st: .291/.354/.556

Braun's: .Sept #'s: 308/.354/ .644

 

I'm excited for Braun but you have to include Tulo's last game which was great in a game clincher.

[Invader3K]

The Brewers seem to be taking a "square peg in a round hole" approach to their defensive positioning, and it's a tad frustrating.

[Tbadder]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH...am I missing something? Braun is a better player--period. How could it be that close? The guy puts up HOF numbers his first year in the bigs and it's the closest vote ever--ever? Tulo has exactly two things: defense and durability. Braun has everything but defense (okay maybe he should BB a little more). What I'm saying is the the gap between their talent is what counts. And this better be a kick in Braun's pants. He puts up HOF numbers and almost loses out on Rookie of the Year vote. You better get the message kid--defense counts--do something about it now.

[Fatter than Joey]

Braun is a better player--period. How could it be that close?

 

Braun was likely the worst starting defender in all of MLB last year -- He was so bad the Brewers had to remove him from the

lineup in close games. The bottom line is -- If Braun could only play 3b, he would never make the HOF, because he wouldn't last

long enough in MLB.

 

You better get the message kid--defense counts--do something about it now.

 

I would hope that Ryan Braun has done all that he can to improve himself. I do not think he is apathetic towards his defense

I just don't think he can play 3b at the MLB level.

 

If the Brewers move him to the OF -- then we can start talking about MVPs/HOF.

[homer]

Braun is a better player--period. How could it be that close?

 

Because while Braun is obviously a much better hitter, Tulo is worlds away on defense.

[JJHardy7]

Does anyone know/heard Braun's off-season plans? I'm assuming/hoping he'll bust his tail to improve his defense.

 

I know there's been a ton of talk about moving Braun to the OF. I guess those that want to move him I have a question for you. Do you think Braun can physically/athletically not play 3B? Or he makes too many mental errors? This is just an honest question.

[patrickgpe]

was this the same hack who wrote on this topic before from denver?

 

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/mlb/article/0,2777,DRMN_23924_5745673,00.html

[homer]

That's not the same guy but he makes some good points.

 

My only problem is that he called Braun "one dimensional". So hitting for average and power is now one dimension?

[patrickgpe]

well my problem was that he basically said because braun had better fantasy stats, he won. I think Neyer's blog on espn.com makes the best case that the writers got it wrong.

neyer blog

 

but to completely dismiss the amazing offensive season Braun had is shortsided as well.

 

I think Tulo's most damning stat is his 250 road BA and 760 OPS. Braun as much more consistent.

[don1481]

I think Neyer's blog on espn.com makes the best case that the writers got it wrong.

I think Neyer's article fails to provide sufficient justification. The fact that Tulo hit like Craig Counsell away from Coors is a far bigger deal than what Neyer's making it out to be. Especially given the number of light-hitting, slick-fielding SS we've seen over the years (Royce Clayton/Craig Counsell, anyone?).

 

One of his two main metrics to support his argument is Win Shares and that since Tulo had 25 to Braun's 22, he should have won. Now... Russ and you other SABR folk out there... let's propose the following scenario:

 

1. Braun is up for the entire year (and therefore doesn't have a huge games-played hole to make up when comparing to Tulo).

2. Braun projects those additional games at a rate similar to his season numbers, both on offense and defense.

3. Milwaukee's W-L record is unchanged.

 

Should that affect Braun's Win Share total enough to put him ahead of Tulo, or am I completely out in left field (blatantly sidestepping any Braun-to-LF points that could be inserted here)?

EDIT:

 

I think Tulo's most damning stat is his 250 road BA and 760 OPS. Braun as much more consistent.

Patrick, you're being generous. Per ESPN.com, it's a .720 OPS. That's Jack Wilson-esque.

[endaround]

Braun would have surpassed Tulo in Win shares but still be far behind in WARP by a whole lot.

[berniebrewer4life]

Jack Wilson has a .683 OPS in Coors.

 

I think you missed my point. By comparing him to JW, i was saying he is just another no hit, great glove SS when he plays games outside of coors.

[homer]

I think what people are missing is just how awful Braun was in the field. Neyer's blog points it out: second worst fielding percentage by a third baseman since 1910. That's unbelievably craptastic.

[don1481]

Braun would have surpassed Tulo in Win shares but still be far behind in WARP by a whole lot.

Right, which I suspected. But that takes away Neyer's point of saying that BOTH of those stats point in favor of Tulo. As I said before, Neyer's article fails to provide sufficient justification, especially with the games played difference affecting Win Shares.

 

I just think that ESPN continues to have a strong bias against the Brewers because of ESPN's bitterness towards Bud Selig, for whatever reason. It's not like the team's even owned by the Seligs anymore.

 

Neyer's article actually was worse IMO than a Prince of Darkness article. Astonishing, I know.

 

EDIT:

 

I think what people are missing is just how awful Braun was in the field. Neyer's blog points it out: second worst fielding percentage by a third baseman since 1910. That's unbelievably craptastic.

Right, but Neyer also points out that Win Shares takes that into account (in Bill James' own convoluted way), and as I pointed out previously, the difference in Win Shares between the two is easily written off by the difference in games played. And therefore half of Neyer's attempt at a statistical argument is essentially negated.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think you missed my point. By comparing him to JW, i was saying he is just another no hit, great glove SS when he plays games outside of coors.

 

This is starting to get blown way out of proportion.

 

Here are some NL SS's OPS at Coors Field (Last 3 years)

 

Loretta -- .583

Furcal -- .531

Vizquel -- .684

Hardy -- .375

Wilson -- .683

Eckstein -- .486

Drew -- .494

 

Tulo -- .960

 

If you want to say Tulo got an assist playing at Coors in 2006 -- That is fine -- but with only 300 ABs on the road, I am betting that some of the variance is due

to statistical small samples. If Coors was such an advantage I would think one of those SS Tulo is getting compared to, would have been able

to put up a +.700 OPS. Its not as if anyone playing at Coors gets to add .250 OPS points automatically.

 

I have no problem with the argument that Braun should have won the 2006, ROY -- but there is no reason to start calling anyone Jack Wilson at this point.

[whizkid]

I can't remember the last time there were so many really good rookies in one league.

 

Braun, Tulo, Pence (who very well might have won if he had not have gotten injured), Young, Hamilton, Gallardo, Kendrick, etc.

 

How about last year when Prince finished 7th. ROY voting:

 

1 Hanley Ramirez

2 Ryan Zimmerman

3 Dan Uggla

4 Josh Johnson

5 Matt Cain

5 Andre Ethier

7 Prince Fielder

7 Takashi Saito

9 Russell Martin

9 Scott Olsen

9 Anibal Sanchez

9 Josh Willingham

[homer]

Right, but Neyer also points out that Win Shares takes that into account (in Bill James' own convoluted way), and as I pointed out previously, the difference in Win Shares between the two is easily written off by the difference in games played. And therefore half of Neyer's attempt at a statistical argument is essentially negated.

Well it wouldn't really affect the WARP at all which Tulo wins hands down. So if you want to negate win shares that's fine but WARP still remains well in Tulo's favor.

[don1481]

Here are some NL SS's OPS at Coors Field (Last 3 years)

 

Loretta -- .583

Furcal -- .531

Vizquel -- .684

Hardy -- .375

Wilson -- .683

Eckstein -- .486

Drew -- .494

 

Tulo -- .960

 

If you want to say Tulo got an assist playing at Coors in 2006 -- That is fine -- but with only 300 ABs on the road, I am betting that some of the variance is due

to statistical small samples. If Coors was such an advantage I would think one of those SS Tulo is getting compared to, would have been able

to put up a +.700 OPS. Its not as if anyone playing at Coors gets to add .250 OPS points automatically.

And in each of those cases they had far fewer than 300 ABs in those 3 years:

 

Furcal: 78 ABs

Hardy: 16 ABs

Vizquel: 93 ABs

Wilson 41 ABs

 

I think one would be far more likely to observe trends in a sample size of 300 ABs over one season than in fewer than 100 ABs spread out over 3.

 

And Tulo's not the only COL player to have such drastic splits over the years. It's not uncommon among COL hitters to have large home/road split differences like Tulo's.

Well it wouldn't really affect the WARP at all which Tulo wins hands down. So if you want to negate win shares that's fine but WARP still remains well in Tulo's favor.

Right, which is why I said half of the argument (Win Shares). I'm more than willing to concede WARP, especially given how it's calculated.

[endaround]

But you're saying Braun should get credit for games he didn't actually play. Win Shares, which has terrible defensive metrics, still has Braun nearly a win worse over the time he did play.

[don1481]

But you're saying Braun should get credit for games he didn't actually play. Win Shares, which has terrible defensive metrics, still has Braun nearly a win worse over the time he did play.

 

What I am saying is that if Neyer's going to focus hard on stats like Win Shares he needs to realize that it's not a terribly balanced calculation for comparison for someone who wasn't in the bigs until what, around Memorial Day, especially if he's comparing to someone who was the starting SS from day one.

 

Given the fact that Braun was able to essentially match all of Tulo's counting stats (i.e. hits, RBI) in a far shorter timespan should show just exactly how much heads-over-heels better offensively Braun was than Tulo. Coupled with Tulo's Royce Clayton-esque offensive output away from Coors and I say this is pretty much a case of a COL player getting overinflated stats from playing 81 games at Coors. If Tulo was on any other team we'd be calling him an "all glove, no hit SS."

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for linking that homer article, Patrickgpe. Do sportswriters in Denver really just not recognize that Coors Field does indeed tend to have a dramatic impact on players' splits? It's like it never even crosses their minds from what I've read.

Ok, so if he'd been more lucky, and posted a .770 OPS away from Coors (luck is basically all it would've taken), is anyone still calling Tulowitzki a light hitting SS who benefits from Coors? Gah.

[Ennder]

Tulo had a .719 OPS on the road, there is no way to not take pause at that, I'm sorry if you think it is just luck but there just isn't enough sample to know what it was. Maybe he just got lucky at Coors and is really not as good as his stats last year, maybe he got unlucky on the road, who knows.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think one would be far more likely to observe trends in a sample size of 300 ABs over one season than in fewer than 100 ABs spread out over 3.

 

Sure -- I agree-- but I think 300 ABs is lousy for trends as well -- which is really my point. Really all you are doing is taking 300 Away ABs and spreading them

over 18 other parks -- and then you get some data like 1 for 12 at Camden or a 1-11 at Dolphin Stadium skewing the data.

 

And Tulo's not the only COL player to have such drastic splits over the years. It's not uncommon among COL hitters to have large home/road split differences like Tulo's.

 

Right -- and that is what "Park Factor" is for, and I think it is entirely far to dock his home stats by the park factor. You can't just simply take a guys Home - Road = park factor over 600 ABs.

 

I am not at all contending that he didn't get help from Coors -- but I think it is way to early in his career to be calling him Jack Wilson.

 

EDIT: Maybe he just got lucky at Coors and is really not as good as his stats last year, maybe he got unlucky on the road, who knows.

I agree with this -- In the context of the year 2006 and the ROY award -- I think it is fair to point out his road struggles -- on the other hand though

it seems very arbitrary to ignore "park factor" which is a pretty solid number -- and ignore everything he did at home up and beyond park factor.

 

My major beef is qualifying Tulo as a "good field no hit" player at this point in his career. It is just too early to tell.

[jason21nl]

throughout the season it was really too close to call, and the final vote shows that. I can't believe that there are people saying the wrong person won. Its not like Braun isn't worthy of being ROY. He had one of the greatest offensive rookie seasons of all time. Since every player starts out as a rookie, thats saying something. Tulo can flat out field the ball and isn't a bum with the bat. If he would have won it, I would have been bummed but I wouldn't have said Braun got jobbed. If neither braun or tulo won and someone else did, then there would have been some discussion on who got jobbed.

[jason21nl]

for whats its worth, Jim Rome will be talking about this in a few min. Some here like rome, some don't just wanted to throw it out there.