Sheets for Crawford rumor

[KCBrewerfan34]

Guys you have to ask yourself, if we can't sign Sheets, now is the time to trade him, add Crawford to the offense (scary) and attempt to trade or sign another starter.

[TooLiveBrew]

I doubt I've won you over, but I think we can agree that his OBP won't be all that great, even if he is hitting .320.

 

Exactly - his physical/athletic abilities don't help him be a more patient hitter. The notion that we should trade Sheets for him straight up is one I don't think anyone here is realistically endorsing, so maybe this is all in vain. So, I'll say that in additon to the fact that Sheets for Crawfod is the definition of selling low, Crawford is not the final piece to our puzzle.

 

KCbf - what's scary about Crawford? His speed doesn't equal him being on base. I agree now is as good as any time to trade him, but not for an overrated player like Crawford.

 

the question, then, is whether you expect him to hit .275. I don't, especially moving from the AL East to the NL Central. By the time he'd be hitting .275, he'd be off with another team.

 

Sooner rather than later, joshjs. Given how frequently BABIP fluctuates, I'd be surprised if a .275 season doesn't come from him in the next 3 years. Do you think the AL East has superior pitching to the NL Central? If it does, it's not by much.

[PeaveyFury]

I'd do this deal for sure. It'd weaken the rotation to lose Sheets, but we'd possibly weaken it anyway when he left, without getting anything in return other than picks.

 

I think that it'd definitely require the Brewers to sign a couple free agent arms, though.

[Team Canada]

So here's a nightmare scenario: Brewers and NY meet in the WS, Sheets pitches the Yankees to victory and is hailed as the man who brought the title back to NY.

 

 

I think I would have to kill myself.

 

Obviously you do this deal with Cappy no questions, but I don't see NY being happy with that, and dealing Sheets makes me nervous.

[PeaveyFury]

I don't see us getting Crawford for Cappy. MAYBE Cappy+ something, but that something would have to be fairly valuable.

[Ennder]

You're absolutely right. But the question, then, is whether you expect him to hit .275. I don't, especially moving from the AL East to the NL Central. By the time he'd be hitting .275, he'd be off with another team.

 

I doubt I've won you over, but I think we can agree that his OBP won't be all that great, even if he is hitting .320. He's an .800 OPS guy, optimistically.

 

AVG is a variance stat, it jumps around year to year and varies a lot based on your singles rate for any given season which is driven by luck a lot. BB's are a relatively steady stat, they are much more dependable. That is why most people do not like relying on players who carry their value in the AVG stat.

[Katuluu]

I'd trade Sheets for Crawford and not get too worried about it. Crawford is ridiculously underpaid for the next two or three years, he still is two years away from hitting his prime which means he still has a high chance of significant improvement while he is still under contract, and the guy is outstanding defensively. He's the kind of player we should be targetting.

[dadofandrew]

He's an .800 OPS guy, optimistically.

 

Don't think a projection system is coming from you anytime soon.

 

He's entering his season of 26, and the past 3 years on the road, he's at .355/.495, already an 850 OPS guy, outside the St. Pete dome. Even all together, his numbers are .344/.472, meaning he's been an 816 OPS guy over the last 486 games.

 

Just to add, he is an OBP guy, but he is not a "walks" guy. There's a big difference there.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yea, it's BA driven. Which is something that can fluctuate quite a bit in any given year.

[billyhallfan]

I'd do this deal for sure. It'd weaken the rotation to lose Sheets, but we'd possibly weaken it anyway when he left, without getting anything in return other than picks.

 

me too, i would probably pee my pants if the brewers got crawford, but then again, it probably won't happen.

 

yost would bat him 8th anyway and take him out for defensive replacement...

[joshjs]

Al: You're right. I didn't take a very close look at the numbers. He's clearly an .825 guy, with potential to improve. (I also thought he was a bit older.)

 

Crawford also appears to be an above-average defender, which is something this team could use.

 

As a side note: Comments like "Don't think a projection system is coming from you anytime soon" are not in line with the spirit of this board. I'm just trying to get my head around things and contribute to the discussion, just like everybody else here. Please try not to be so mean-spirited in the future.

[bball123h2]

I think if you run really, really fast like Crawford, I'm more ok with your OBP being mainly BA driven, as I would think the ability to beat throws would make that BA more stable.

[TooLiveBrew]

Juan Pierre BA/OBP since 2003:

 

.305/.361 (age 25)

.326/.374 (26)

.276/.326 (27)

.292/.330 (28)

.293/.331 (29)

 

Just for a bit of comparison. I know they're different players.

[dadofandrew]

Josh, no harm meant, but to say he would regress made no sense. Getting off the turf would help Crawford a lot.

[joshjs]

Al: Thanks. I'm starting to think Crawford would be nice to have, even if it doesn't seem like all the pieces will fit to make it happen (and make it a net gain).

[bball123h2]

Good point that Pierre has not aged gracefully. Maybe Crawford's power numbers help in that regard? Pierre's OPS has always been pretty sad, while Crawford's have been more than respectable (though I should say I would not be expecting a power spike like many here do).

[Big Reed]

I can't believe you guys are cutting Crawford down just because he has a batting average over .300. You say his OBP based on batting average can fluctuate, but you have the stats right in front of you of what his batting average was for the past 5 years and by each month. how much did it actually fluctuate? the guy gets on base, he steals bases, he drives in runners, and he scores and he could also play center field. and his salary is about half as much as comparable players - take a look at what Bobby Abreu is being paid.

 

And while you're cutting somebody down because his stats don't measure up to your desires, when was the last time Sheets won 13 games? For as good as Sheets is supposed to be in the eyes of most brewer posters, his stats are rather mediocre. His career stats are nowhere near the hype brewer fans give him. however, yo u give him a blaket pass because he's a brewer. Why not cut him down just like you cut down opposing team's players?

 

Honestly, I think some of you would find fault in AROD's game.

[TooLiveBrew]

Big Reed, I'm not a fan of Crawford. Sorry if that's not "ok" with you.

For as good as Sheets is supposed to be in the eyes of most brewer posters, his stats are rather mediocre.

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif

[joshjs]

A-Rod could've batted more runs in, if you ask me. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[trwi7]

Big Reed, I'm not a fan of Crawford. Sorry if that's not "ok" with you.

I'm sort of the same way. I like Crawford but I feel he's overrated. I really don't like giving up Sheets for Crawford and not getting any pitching back, imo we'd need to get at least one starter back if we were to trade Sheets.

[brewers255]

I think alot of you guys are overrating Sheets. Sheets is 29, last year of his deal, he will want at least 12-13 mil per year. Why not get a guy like Crawford you is a perfect # 2 hitter. Sheets strikeouts has been on a decline since his big year. He had 1 season with more than 14 wins. He hasnt started 25 or more games in 3 years and he always gets hurt in someway. You loose salary gain a stud in Crawford, you loose about 4-5 mil with trading Sheets and accquiring Crawford. Sign Cordero, Sign Rogers or trade for Cliff Lee. and sign Mahay and your team is pretty much set. Crawford is 26, hes young improving, playing for a team with no one really good besides Delmon Young and Carlos Pena. Hes only going to get better and is signed cheap for 2-3 years.

 

Pitching Rotation

 

1. Yovani Gallarado

2. Cliff Lee or Kenny Rogers

3. Villy

4. Suppan

5. Capuano

 

Bullpen

 

Cordero, Turnbow, Mahay, Shouse, Wise, Parra.

 

C: Estrada

1B: Fielder

2B: Weeks

3B: Braun

SS: Hardy

LF: Crawford

CF: Hall

RF: Hart

 

Lineup

 

1. Weeks ®

2. Crawford (L)

3. Braun ®

4. Fielder (L)

5. Hart ®

6. Estrada (S)

7. Hall ®

8. Hardy ®

 

That is a very good team and you would have depth with Vargas, Bush.

[jlau20]

I love Sheets, but if there's any way to get any (reasonable) arm included in this somehow, I think the trade makes sense. I just don't get the feeling Sheets is ever going to have 'that' season. The part that's tough for me, is that if he ever does have 'that' season, I want it to happen in a Brewers uniform, preferably next year. I'd hate to trade him away only to see him play a full year with 215+ K's and 15+ wins on another team. I suppose the more I think about it, I'd rather just keep Sheets, hope that the fact that it's the last year of his deal keeps those bizarre injuries away and see what happens.

 

I don't think anyone can/is arguing that adding Crawford wouldn't be good for our team, but the fact of the matter is most of us are still holding out for 'that' year from Sheets, and I'd love nothing more than for it to be in '08, and while he's still in a Brewer uniform.

 

I know alot of people think '08 could be our year, myself included, but it Sheets doesn't work out this year and we decide to part ways, it's not like we don't have our young guys around for another few years after '08.

[trwi7]

Sheets strikeouts has been on a decline since his big year.

 

Not many people can keep up 10 strikeouts per 9 innings pace like Sheets did in 2004. In 2005 it went down to 8.1, in 2006 it jumped back up to 9.85 and in 2007 it dropped again.

 

He had 1 season with more than 14 wins.

 

Wins and losses are probably the worst thing you can use to judge a pitcher.

 

Sign Rogers or trade for Cliff Lee

 

What if Rogers only pitches 63 innings again this year? And Cliff Lee had a 6.29 ERA this year and got demoted to AAA. Later on you're suggesting he becomes our #2 starter.

 

playing for a team with no one really good besides Delmon Young and Carlos Pena.

 

Scott Kazmir, James Shields and B.J. Upton may have something to say about that.

 

I still don't like the pitching on that team. The bullpen is still weak and the starting pitching gets worse.

[paul253]

I still don't like the pitching on that team. The bullpen is still weak and the starting pitching gets worse.

 

I agree. I just don't like the idea of having Gallardo as our default ace in his first full season in the Bigs. That bullpen you suggested may be worse that the one we had this year, and there is no depth on the team. We still need to sign a utility infielder and work out our catching situation and we need to sign at the very least, 2 bullpen pitchers, probably more

[mothershipconnection]

and his salary is about half as much as comparable players - take a look at what Bobby Abreu is being paid.

 

But there are also several players above Crawford in OPS that are paid even less. Not that this makes Crawford expensive by any stretch of the imagination, but you can't point to an overpaid underperformer in an off year.

 

First, Abreu was signed to that deal when he was about to be a free agent, so he was more expensive than a player under team control for several years. He was still in his prime and dominating, so he got paid big-time. In hindsight, though, it has not looked like a great deal in the past few years. Lots of players were paid based on past performance and didn't justify the salary with their performance. Abreu is not being paid his salary because of his .814 OPS in 2007: he's paid to be a .900+ OPS player.

 

Second, Abreu was coming off seasons with an OPS of .906, .995, .970, .936, and .934. Not only were those great OPS numbers, but they were of the more valuable OBP-heavy variety. 2007 was the first full season for Abreu in which he posted an OPS lower than Crawford's carrer high of .830. Just because Abreu was overpaid on 2007 doesn't mean Crawford is a steal. Don't get me wrong - Crawford's deal is very team friendly, but you can't say one deal is greater just because some other team took a risk that didn't completely pan out.