Trade for pitching....or trade it away? (Sheets discussion)

[Klements Bratwurst]

We are completing with the Mets. This trade makes them better and us worse. I can't imagine trading Sheets unless it is June and we are playing horrible. This is the year for the Brewers.

I whole-heartedly agree. I can't see Melvin waving the white flag by trading Sheets, unless you get a bonafide #1-2 back in return that is ready to step in right now. Gallardo is nice, but young, and I wouldn't want to pin my hopes on him getting us to the playoffs. A Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villy rotation in the playoffs would be better than subracting Sheets right off the top and bringing in a younger unproven player.

 

We are built for now. Maybe the Mets beat writers don't understand that.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I'd trade Sheets to the Mets... but here would be the deal. Billy Hall and Ben Sheets for David Wright.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don' think trading Sheets is giving up on the season. Heck where was he when he was needed last year? I don't think the Mets have enough to interest me though. Perhaps a 3 way deal where the Brewers end up with Dontrelle Willis/Aaron Heilman, the Mets with Ben Sheets/Derrick Turnbow, and the Marlins with some combo of Pelfrey/Humber/Gomez/Milledge.

[Fatter than Joey]

On paper, maybe, but I referenced the Mark Mulder/Dan Haren trade above because good deals can be made my moving proven big-league pitchers for unproven yet talented young pitchers that are on the cusp of making a significant mark at the big-league level.

 

I hear you...

 

A couple of differences though.

 

1.) The A's still had an anchor in their rotation in Zito -- I really doubt that they would have moved Mulder+Hudson in 2004 if Zito wasn't there. If we were talking about trading Sheets and Cappy (e.g.) was "an ace" -- I would certainly consider it.

 

2.) The A's took a big step backwards in 2005. They were still competitive and a good team -- but they were unable to hang with the Angels and WC teams. Of course they had a great 2006 (they still had Zito) and then they had a bad 2007.

[Fatter than Joey]

And not to beat a comparison to death, but Dan Haren also once profiled as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

 

Well -- If DM is convinced that Pelfrey/Humber could be solid in our rotation -- then I am happy -- however DM evaluating pitching makes me nervous.

 

I don' think trading Sheets is giving up on the season.

 

I don't either necessarily -- I just think we have to get guys that will immediately impact our rotation -- i.e. we can't trade Sheets for a OF+BP arm. (and expect to compete in 2008)

[bklynbrewcrew]

colbyjack I have seen Pelphrey pitch on several occasions and he is unimpressive to say the least. In my mind we need to receive a cant miss kind of guy if we are to trade Sheets and I just dont see Pelphrey as that kind of guy. Clayton Kershaw on the other hand is exactly the type of guy I would be willing to trade Sheets for.

[colbyjack]

Well -- If DM is convinced that Pelfrey/Humber could be solid in our rotation -- then I am happy -- however DM evaluating pitching makes me nervous.

 

Why's that? He's claimed Doug Davis, Derrick Turnbow and Matt Wise for practically nothing. He landed Capuano in the Sexson deal, who didn't seem to be viewed as a huge piece to that deal when it went down. Bush came in the Overbay trade, and while Vargas isn't anything too special, he was still a decent addition to a deal that focused on getting a better catcher than Damian Miller. He also landed the ultimate pitching nugget in Carlos Villanueva in what was supposed to be a relatively scrap-heap trade for Leo Estrella and Wayne Franklin. Since the organization hasn't been particularly good, at least not prior to this past year, at developing their own pitchers from within, Melvin has done an impressive job building a staff out of almost nothing.

[colbyjack]

colbyjack I have seen Pelphrey pitch on several occasions and he is unimpressive to say the least. In my mind we need to receive a cant miss kind of guy if we are to trade Sheets and I just dont see Pelphrey as that kind of guy. Clayton Kershaw on the other hand is exactly the type of guy I would be willing to trade Sheets for.

 

I'm not saying Pelfrey (would his name be Pelphrey if he pitched for the Phillies?) is the right match, I'm just saying that if DM were to make a move for someone like Pelfrey my money is on the organization feeling pretty good about what he can do, and that the Mets don't have the patience to find out the hard way since they obviously have more financial reserves to play with, not to mention a completely different level of expectations (not so much to win, but to spend wildly as if they intend to win). Pelfrey prior to this past year was impressing quite a few scouts across the country with his ability, and it isn't a stretch to think that he could return to form given past scouting reports on his potential ability and what he has shown on occasion (which used to be more frequently).

 

If the Brewers could manage to deal Sheets for Kershaw, that too would make me happy, but Kershaw isn't going to be ready to pitch in the big-leagues next year, at least not to open the 2008 season (at least he shouldn't after the Dodgers aggressively promoted him to AA from the Midwest League, and keep in mind a similar aggressive promotion to an equally promising lefty a few years ago, Greg Miller, didn't work out so well for them), while Pelfrey just needs a chance at the big-league level to show what he's capable of.

 

And let me be clear, I'm not saying I'm for trading Sheets. I also would lean towards keeping him, hoping to sign him to an extension and further hoping that he finds a way to be on the field for a full season. However, considering that he hasn't been able to stay on the field and that he is entering his final year in his current deal, he very well be a candidate to be dealt without the team taking a step back in doing so, especially since the FA market is so thin which could enhance his value. If the Brewers were to extend Sheets and he were to continue to miss significant playing time to a variety of injuries, that deal could end up looking like a few other ones that have bitten the Brewers badly in the past (Teddy Higuera's stands out the most).

[Fatter than Joey]

Why's that?

 

See his tenure in TX.

 

He's claimed Doug Davis, Derrick Turnbow and Matt Wise for practically nothing.

 

He extended Turnbow.

 

He landed Capuano in the Sexson deal, who didn't seem to be viewed as a huge piece to that deal when it went down.

 

Really? -- I always thought the deal centered around Cappy, I can't imagine it was for Spivey/Moeller/Counsell.

 

Carlos Villanueva

 

Yep that was a good one.

 

Melvin has done an impressive job building a staff out of almost nothing.

 

I would argue the word "impressive" -- certainly he hasn't been terrible -- but pitching is not his strong suit IMO.

 

If the Brewers were to extend Sheets and he were to continue to miss significant playing time to a variety of injuries, that deal could end up looking like a few other ones that have bitten the Brewers badly in the past

 

This is a good point -- there is nothing guaranteed about extending Sheets either.

[TooLiveBrew]

Gammons mentioned the Yankees don't want to give up Hughes or Chamberlain, but he didn't mention Ian Kennedy.

 

Well, in regards to a potential offseason deals (meaning, essentially, Miguel Cabrera), Hank Steinbrenner (at least I think it was him, not Hal) came out & said they wouldn't include Hughes, Chamberlin, or Kennedy.

 

The notion of trading Sheets is enticing, but the whole thing (as with any debate/consideration of Benny) centers on his health. If we trade him, and then he throws 175+IP, it sucks for us. If we trade him, he only posts 145 IP, we come out great. If we keep him & he gives us enough innings, we'd have been idiots to trade him - and if he misses significant time again, we were idiots not to.

 

I'd say that given the fact his injuries haven't really been arm-related, ride out 2007 with Ben as a Brewer. If a deal comes along that's too good to pass up, you obviously pull the trigger - whether that be at the deadline, this winter, etc. But as has been mentioned, when Sheets is on the hill, you don't want him anywhere but on your team.

[pogokat]

sexson deal was centered around overbay and spivey...capuano was a throw in...

[colbyjack]

I'm not going to base Melvin's history of collecting arms based on his history with the Rangers. After all, that is history, and no one has been very good at collecting arms in Texas (and Melvin is still the only GM for the Rangers that guided them to the playoffs IIRC, and assembled a decent enough pitching staff, including some decent trades to acquire guys like Darren Oliver, Todd Stottlemyre, John Burkett and Aaron Sele).

 

Extending Turnbow wasn't an absolutely horrible move, as it hasn't exactly handcuffed the team from making other moves. You still don't seem to give him credit for grabbing those guys off the scrap heap, all of whom have had good seasons with the Brewers (including Turnbow's impressive '05 season).

 

As for the Sexson deal, check out BA's Jim Callis' wrap-up of the deal after it went down. Capuano is the last player covered. This isn't necessarily the way Melvin looked at the deal, but at the time Capuano was a huge question mark despite having some upside as a once former somewhat top prospect. I include BA's take since they tend to have a better perspective on both the big-leaguers and prospects included in deals:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/031201sexson.html

[MNBrew]

The Sexson deal was based on Overbay and the tandem of young starters, Capuano & de la Rosa. Spivey was an important part, with Moeller & Counsell also decent parts. At the time, other than Overbay taking over 1B for Sexson, all the guys we got were talent upgrades (at the time) over what we had. But part of what made the deal work was Swinging the (Schilling?) trade with Boston so that de la Rosa could then be included from AZ in the Sexson trade. Melvin wanted both young pitchers, and Capuano made the Brewers out of spring training that first year. He was hardly a throw-in. Certainly the Brewers didn't consider him a throw-in.

[dadofandrew]

Capuano was a very good prospect until he got hurt. They got 4 solid players, plus Moeller & Counsell, who each improved roster spots. I thought Moeller would be better than he was as well.

[brewers255]

These are my thoughts. As much as I would hate trading Sheets, he has been hurt the past 3-4 seasons. I mean he was out the whole season due to a ear infection. He is injury prone. I would rather get Humber or Pelfrey and have a young combo of Gallarado-Humber-Villy. Lets face it, Sheets would not resign with Milwaukee. He will want 12-13 million per year as it would be his last big free agency. So I say lets get Milledge/Humber or Pelfrey or maybe offer him to the Dodgers for Kemp/Broxton type. Brewers will not spend 13 million on a injury prone pitcher so get something out of Sheets now. Trading him is not giving up. This would also allow us to go after other FA's and maybe add a good player in the trade market.

[dadofandrew]

I mean he was out the whole season due to a ear infection. He is injury prone.

 

Fast and loose with the facts. I guess Koskie has been out a year plus with a headache?

 

I worked with someone who had vertigo issues after a car accident, and she considered suicide during that stretch. It's far from an "ear infection", and it's simply wrong to call it that.

[twobrewers]

A WSSP news update just reported a rumor out there that Sheets is on the trading block... Take it as you will.

The above was posted in the rumor thread.

The more I think about it, maybe this makes sense. I mentioned before that I couldn't imagine the Brewer's trading Sheets as they would need to get back MLB-ready starting pitching back. And why would any team trade a starter for an injured starter? I also mentioned that next year the Brewers have a legitimate chance to compete - and can't trade away a potential #1 ace.

However, that is a little short sighted. We do have a legitimate chance next year if Sheets remains healthy. But what if we were able to get back a good young pitcher (or two) to take his place next year or the year after. The truth is, we have Prince, Braun, Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Hall, and Gallardo under contract for a few more years. Next year doesn't have to be an all or nothing year.

In other words, if trading Sheets (who I think we would likely lose in free agency) makes us a better team for 2009 & 2010 - I think I could get on board.

[brewers255]

Fast and loose with the facts. I guess Koskie has been out a year plus with a headache?

Koskie had a concussion, you see a lot of players who have been out a year with a post concussion syndrome. You see maybe 1-2 people who are out 4-5 months with a ear infection.

[MNBrew]

Al's point, 225, is that vertigo is not an ear infection, even if it may be an INNER ear infection which precipitated it, just like a concussion is a whole lot more than a headache.

[Fatter than Joey]

sexson deal was centered around overbay and spivey

 

I don't believe that -- as the Brewers had Prince and Weeks just about ready to go -- about the only guys who had a long term plan with the Brewers in

that trade were perhaps the pitchers and maybe Moeller, who as Al pointed out, was a bit of a letdown.

 

Spivey and Overbay were placeholders.

[Fatter than Joey]

You still don't seem to give him credit for grabbing those guys off the scrap heap, all of whom have had good seasons with the Brewers (including Turnbow's impressive '05 season).

 

I never said he never did anything well -- I just am not overly impressed with DM's ability to put together a pitching staff.

[dadofandrew]

Overbay and Spivey were put right into the lineup, so they were counted on to contribute right away, and both were solid everyday players, though Spivey fell off a cliff soon thereafter.

[TooLiveBrew]

Was that a vertigo-related fall? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Fatter than Joey]

Overbay and Spivey were put right into the lineup, so they were counted on to contribute right away, and both were solid everyday players, though Spivey fell off a cliff soon thereafter.

 

Sure -- no one is debating that, but with Prince and Weeks on the horizon, Cappy (or JDLR) was the only guy in that deal that had a long-term future

[twobrewers]

I am pretty sure De La Rosa was widely considered the biggest part of the Sexson deal. He was once the highest rated prospect in the Red Sox organization.

 

Spivey and Overbay were major players, but as pointed out - they were merely placeholders.

 

Capuano was mainly a throw-in. So I would think you could argue that Melvin missed on De La Rosa and struck gold in Capuano.