Trade for pitching....or trade it away? (Sheets discussion)

[splitterpfj]

The Padres have discussed Jake Peavy with the Yankees, the Twins will begin fielding offers for Johan Santana if they decide they cannot re-sign him, Scott Kazmir is available, Tim Lincecum is a possibility, so is Erik Bedard, the A's are making up their minds on Joe Blanton, Dontrelle Willis can definitely had....free agent pitching is thin this year, and teams have needs to fill - better pitching than you think is likely to move via trades this winter.

 

With that being the case, should the Brewers -

 

1. Push hard to add a top-notch starting pitcher via trade.

 

2. Float Ben Sheets' name around the winter meetings to see what might be out there?

 

I'd like to hear your views on both questions. Thanks.

[trwi7]

Top notch starter would probably cost too much so I personally would not go after one. Like going after Peavy, that would probably cost Hart and Gallardo so while I love Peavy I don't think that makes the team better.

 

Sheets I'm not sure on. I like him, good pitcher but he gets the weirdest injuries. With his impending free agency as well as the thin crop of free agent pitching I might be tempted to dangle him and see what's out there.

[timothyw80]

This is something I have been bouncing around in my head for a few days myself. I suppose it depends on what kind of offers the Brewers would receive for Ben. Your opinion of his injury history, and how you would feel about the rotation without him in it. My guess is that it would look something like this...

 

1. Gallardo

2. Suppan

3. Villanueva

4. Bush

5. Parra/Capuano

 

Thats not horrible but it might lead to the same problem the Brewers had last season as far as stressing out the bullpen. I would definitely listen to offers and if the right one came along wouldn't have any problem pulling the trigger.

[And That]

This'll never happen, but...

 

If the Padres are serious about trading away Peavy, I would offer Sheets plus whatever player or two they wanted outside of Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Hart or Gallardo. As long as we got to talk extension with Jake beforehand, of course.

[sbrylski]

I highly doubt we'll be adding a SP via trade this offseason. The abundance of available SP in trades only tells me it'll take a while to trade Vargas.

[splitterpfj]

That's the sort of thing I was thinking too. If it was at all possible to get a guy like Peavy or Santana for Sheets and a kid or two, I think the Brewers should be all over it. If it's possible to get a guy like Kazmir or Bedard this winter, I'm for that too, but obviously I wouldn't offer as much.

[don1481]

What about trading some of our other starting pitching for high-level prospects? Keep replenishing the pitching prospects and that could allow the Brewers to not have an army of 4th-5th spot starters. Besides, that way you don't have to shell out tons of money right away (since they'll be young and cheap when they hit the rotation) and the Brewers can then decide over time who to keep long-term and who to trade away for other components. As a smaller-market team, the Brewers will always be dependent on a near-constant influx of young, cheap talent. And oftentimes this talent will be acquired via trades as well as the draft.

 

Rather than dumping Sheets, I'd consider a 3 year extension for Ben. Same base salaries as he's making, but include enough performance-based incentives that IF he lives up to his talent, he gets paid like a bona fide ace. Give a team option for a 4th year that automatically vests if he hits enough of the incentives over years 1-3.

 

One of the reasons why I like Sheet is that when he's healthy, he eats a TON of innings (for example, in 2004 he went 237 IP in 34 starts, for nearly 7 IP/start), which could help to lighten the workload on the bullpen.

[SoCalBrewfan]

This article was posted on Primer...says Brewers would 'contemplate' a Sheets deal.

 

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spmets1109,0,2952740.story

 

One interesting name to keep an eye on is Milwaukee's Ben Sheets. The same NL official said the Brewers could seriously contemplate a Sheets deal. Milwaukee has depth in its starting rotation and a need for bullpen help, and Sheets has only one year left on his contract (at $11 million), although he has a limited no-trade clause.

Though it should be noted that I'm inherently cynical when NY media report that other teams are willing to deal their best players to NY teams. Dunno who the 'NL official' might be, but perhaps this is a serious rumor.

[strawbossisevil]

Trading Sheets for Bullpen arms would be a horrible use of resources. Ugh.

[endaround]

I still have no reason to believe Kazmir and especially Bedard are available.

[joshjs]

If the Padres and Twins are considering trading their aces, it's because they're not sure if they can sign them to longer-term deals. They won't want to trade for a lesser ace who they may have the same problem with. Getting a mid-grade prospect in the deal might be nice for them, but they can likely do better. They should be looking for some price-controlled talent in return, like Hughes or Braun.

 

Also, if Santana and Peavy are really available in this market, it would drive the price for Sheets down. So we should hold onto Benny.

[mothershipconnection]

Both: you always go to the meetings looking to make the best possible move. I see no way we plausibly pick up a top of the rotation pitcher, but maybe a #3 with some serious upside could be had while we trade or excess SP's for bullpen help.

I also think that you shop Sheets. If re-signing him is out of the question and you could get a long-term corner OF solution for a guy who has been a bit of a health gamble, you have to consider it.

[TheBrewer]

If the right deal came yes. However Gallardo should not be counted on this season as being the ace. Remember how Weaver came up with the Angels two seasons ago I think he had like 2.56ERA 11 Wins etc, look what he did this past season. While I think Weaver will improve, it goes to show that young pitchers could always take a step back. In my opinion they should try to add a staff ace like a Kazmir maybe, but Kaz could be a Ben Sheets as Kaz has always been injured except this past year. Id trade sheets if it got me better players back or helped my club. But then if I dealt him I'd try to acquire a top SP.

[sheetswannabe]

Sheets, Hall, and Prospect for Peavy?

[JohnBriggs12]

Funny as listening to Peter Gammons talk about Santana this morning and how the Twins would like to sign him long term but won't be able to go to $20 million per year, it got me thinking on Sheets. If Santana is worth at least $100 million over 5 years, what is Sheets worth?

 

We've seen nothing from the Brewers regarding any negotiations on extending his contract beyond this year. That is very curious to me. Maybe the Brewers aren't interested in giving a lot of money to a guy who can't avoid ridiculous injuries or they know Sheets wants to test the market.

 

If I were the Brewers, I'd have to at least listen to offers. Gammons mentioned the Yankees don't want to give up Hughes or Chamberlain, but he didn't mention Ian Kennedy.

 

We all know Seattle is desperate for pitching too. Might they be willing to part with Jones or how about Clement and Ibanez for Sheets and Mench or Gross?

[colbyjack]

With so few starting pitching options on the free agent market, you have to believe that a few of these big name pitchers will get dealt this offseason. Sheet's contract situation definitely makes him a candidate, and I do wonder if the comments from the link that SoCal provided above have serious merit.

 

And the Mets may be a good trade partner. They don't seem to be patient enough (especially after the team crashed to end the '07 season) to see how a few talented young arms such as Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey develop, both of whom have had success at the AAA level with cups of coffee in the big leagues, and both could be a solid arm for the Brewers to target, similar to how the A's got Dan Haren from the Cardinals in return for Mark Mulder. I would talk to the Mets about a bullpen arm as well such as Aaron Heilman and one of their extra outfielders which includes Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez.

 

If Sheets does get dealt, at least one or two solid pitchers need to come back the Brewers way, otherwise I would be more inclined to stick with him and hope he puts together as full of a season as he can in his final year under contract. With the Mets, Sheets could do his best to make the Tom Seaver proud.

[Tbadder]

I'd trade Sheets for one of the following plus significant bullpen help:

 

1) a similar young stud "Gallardo" type

2) a can't miss young cathing stud to replace Johnny after next year

 

I just can't see Benny ever being healthy, and we need long term help. Next year I can't see the Crew contending, but the year after should be a big push year.

[yoyomayoma]

The rumor from Newsday saying the Mets might want Sheets intrigued me. If we were to trade with them, who would you want? Would it be Milledge and Pelfrey/Humber? Or would we be going more for top end pitching prospects?

[Patrick425]

I would be very hesitant about trading Sheets. Yes, he is very injury prone, but he is also the only proven ace on the staff. Yes, Gallardo has shown the potential for being a #1 or #2 pitcher some day, but until he logs in a few more innings, I don't think you can give him that label yet. IMHO Suppan, Cappy, Villanueva, Vargas, Bush, and Parra are #3 pitchers at best, more likely 4 or 5 spot guys (at least for Vargas, Bush, Parra and possibly Cappy and Villy).

If Cappy had been more consistent last year and pitched more like a true #2 pitcher, I would feel a bit more comfortable about trading Sheets. However, I don't like the thought of a team that wants to contend going into the season with their "#1" pitcher being someone who just came off his rookie year.

When it comes to August and Sept and the playoffs, pitching and defense are key. I'm not sure that trading pitching for anything other than more pitching would make a whole lot of sense.

[Fatter than Joey]

The rumor from Newsday saying the Mets might want Sheets intrigued me. If we were to trade with them, who would you want? Would it be Milledge and Pelfrey/Humber?

 

I guess it depends to me.

 

If we trade him in the off-season -- I think we have to get someone we can plug into our rotation and get immediate results from. If we are

not competing -- then I am happy with other prospects. -- I guess though I don't feel like Humber/Pefrey are going to be that great in 2008,

while Sheets is a given.

 

I guess I don't see how we can subtract Sheets from our rotation and expect to compete. -- If we are conceding 2008 then trading Sheets makes a lot of sense.

 

I certainly understand the Mets targeting Sheets though.

[twobrewers]

I guess I don't see how we can subtract Sheets from our rotation and expect to compete. -- If we are conceding 2008 then trading Sheets makes a lot of sense.

I think talent wise the trade would make sence (Milledge and Humber/Pelfrey), but at Joey pointed out - that would be waiving a white flag for the season. IMO

 

We are completing with the Mets. This trade makes them better and us worse. I can't imagine trading Sheets unless it is June and we are playing horrible. This is the year for the Brewers.

[lukevan]

I can't imagine trading Sheets unless it is June and we are playing horrible. This is the year for the Brewers.

 

Ditto. I'd rather let Sheets walk after the season than trade him now. Of course I'd rather take don's suggestion and extend him for 3 more years also.

[Fatter than Joey]

Of course I'd rather take don's suggestion and extend him for 3 more years also.

 

Yes -- I agree -- That front has been quiet though.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The Mets system doesnt have what we would need to trade Sheets. Humber and Pelphrey are 4th starters at best. If we trade Sheets which I am against we need to target a guy like Kershaw from LA. Humber and Pelphrey are second tier prospects and Milledge is not the kind of guy we want in the clubhouse. Personally I would rather sign Sheets to a 5 year deal and keep him.

[colbyjack]

I guess I don't see how we can subtract Sheets from our rotation and expect to compete. -- If we are conceding 2008 then trading Sheets makes a lot of sense.

 

On paper, maybe, but I referenced the Mark Mulder/Dan Haren trade above because good deals can be made my moving proven big-league pitchers for unproven yet talented young pitchers that are on the cusp of making a significant mark at the big-league level. The A's traded both Tim Hudson and Mulder before the 2005 season, and on paper I don't think many people gave them much of a chance, but of course Haren was better than many to most expected and the A's finished in 2nd place in 2005 behind a very tough Angels club. If the Brewers feel they can get that kind of player in someone like Mike Pelfrey, or even Philip Humber, it could not only be a move to sustain success in 2008, but also improve the chances for success beyond 2008.

 

All in theory of course, but a deal definitely can be done without putting the 2008 season in jeopardy.

 

EDIT: Humber and Pelphrey are 4th starters at best.

 

Pelfrey was rated among the top 20-25 overall prospects overall last year according to Baseball America, and that was after his first full year pitching in professional baseball. He seemed to take a step back this year, but the guy has only two years of professional baseball under his belt, and also has one of the nastier sinking fastballs in all of baseball. I'm not sure if he will rebound, but he has more potential than that of a 4th starter. He actually reminds me quite a bit of Roy Halladay, another big-bodied pitcher with nasty stuff that soared through the minors (as a HS draftee) only to experience a few bumps when he first arrived to the big-leagues.

 

And not to beat a comparison to death, but Dan Haren also once profiled as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

 

Humber I'm less sold on given his TJ surgery two years ago, of which he never recovered his once impressive velocity (he still has a good curve).

 

Somewhat related, the Mets top prospects were just unveiled this morning on BA's front page.