The Future of Joe Dillon

[monty57]

I only mentioned Bay's name because I was listing the two players who ended up #s 13 & 14 last year. Based on his career's work I would love to have Jason Bay on the roster, no question about that. I think Bay is better than last year's numbers show, and I absolutely wasn't trying to make a comparison that Dillon = Bay.

 

After expanding my search to LFs who only had a minimum of 100 ABs, if Dillon could hit .750 as a RH part of a LF platoon, we would basically have... Kevin Mench (.746 OPS) for about $4.5MM less than Mench will make if the Brewers were to hang onto him. All the more reason to dump Mench, which at this time seems to be the odds on favorite to happen.

 

I think the Brewers are going to make every effort to pick up a LF via trade this offseason. As TooLiveBrew points out, Dillon doesn't have a track record that screams "give this man a starting job on a (hopefully) playoff bound team." The same can also be said of Gross, although he's got more history to go off of than Dillon. I believe they would both make good bats off the bench if an everyday LF can be found.

 

However, if Melvin can't find a suitable trading partner, the Brewers seem to be left with Dillon filling Mench's role as the RH part of a LF platoon with Gross. The added bonus will be that he can back up other positions on the field as well as playing LF.

[theavrock]

I have been to the baseballcube a few times. That is where I got his stats. I am well aware of what he did outside of last year at the MLB level. If you would have read my first post in this thread you would have seen that. He was a so so prospect until his injury, then came back and posted very good numbers in 04 05 and 07 and then continued that success at the big leagues. Prior to his abck injury he posted a .791 OPS and a .275 average with 10-15 HR's per year. Not amazing but decent especially considering three years of success most recently.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok, time to make some peace (hopefully)...

 

I only mentioned Bay's name because I was listing the two players who ended up #s 13 & 14 last year. Based on his career's work I would love to have Jason Bay on the roster, no question about that. I think Bay is better than last year's numbers show, and I absolutely wasn't trying to make a comparison that Dillon = Bay.

 

Ok, monty, sorry - it was pretty obvious to at least one other (and likely many more) viewers what you were getting at - sorry I missed that. Your note was and is very valid, and I simply misinterpreted.

 

I have been to the baseballcube a few times.

Cool, avrock. I apologize that I suggested that you haven't been there. Given the question you asked ("can we please get some explanations of why you guys think this and something that backs up those assumptions."), I guessed that you'd not seen his minor league work. My assumption for why I think he won't post an .890 OPS (or .850/.825, etc.) over more ABs is based on the fact that he didn't do anything north of .850 in the minors until he wasn't really a peer to most of his opponents anymore.

 

I think he's a fine player with a solid approach at the plate & the ability to play numerous positions capably. This, coupled with the fact that he's not had any sustained success at the plate yet in MLB, imho projects him to be an ideal supersub/PH/fill-in starter. Not only would starting him in LF (or the starting part of a platoon) degrade the value he brings in playing multiple positions, but it seems intuitively unlikely that he will keep his OPS north of .800 with expanded playing time.

 

If we want a proven commodity as one half of a LF platoon, all we have to do is re-sign Kevin Mench. Sure, we want better OBP, but if our worst-case in LF is Gross/Mench, that's not the end of the world. It's on the manager to not give either guy too many ABs against like-sided pitching.

[monty57]

No offense taken TLB. I pretty much agree with everything you're saying. You're probably correct that the Brewers would be better with Mench / Gross and Dillon as super sub on the bench. This is far from fact, but I've read that the Brewers are not planning on offering arby to Mench, as he would cost around $5MM (the article said they'd likely not offer arby to Wise either). If that's the case, I think Dillon could possibly post a similar OPS to Mench, albeit with less SLG and more OBP if he is used as the RH part of a platoon. As you mentioned, it would limit one of Dillon's assets, which is the ability to play multiple postions.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say Mench will not be offered arby and will become a free agent, as Melvin won't be able to find a trading partner for him (or he'll be a secondary part of a bigger trade). The money saved will be used to try to sign Cordero, which Melvin has said will be the Brewers' #1 goal this offseason. Melvin will make a trade involving some of our excess SP to acquire an everyday LF that has a year or two left in arby and one or two middle relievers. Gross will be the backup LF/RF (Hart will backup CF when Hall needs rest) and be the primary power LH bat off the bench (Counsell will be the "contact" LH hitter). Dillon will backup multiple positions, including OF and be the predominant RH hitter off the bench, which we lacked this season.

[Ennder]

I'd rather have Dillon on the team than Cirillo or Loretta and people seem to still want them back.

[TooLiveBrew]

This is far from fact, but I've read that the Brewers are not planning on offering arby to Mench, as he would cost around $5MM

 

$5 mil. for one-half of a really effective LF platoon - that's a bargain. I disagree with ya about our chances to re-sign CoCo, monty. While I think the Crew will make an offer fair to the Mil. budget, Cordero would be a fiscal fool to not play the open market. If the Brewers can go to $10 mil. AAV, I guarantee you a bigger market can go $12-15 mil. If the money freed up by not re-signing Mench is what makes us able to keep Cordero in Milwaukee, obviously I want that. I'm just not very optimistic we'll be able to ink CoCo.

[Zycho32]

I'd only take Loretta to be the full-time 3B and bump Braun to LF, but that's never gonna happen. Cirillo I can understand- Dillon's versatility makes him more valauble than Jeff.

 

I'm contending a Gross/Dillon platoon will offer a sufficient performance, not only in LF, but also at #2 in the batting order.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'm contending a Gross/Dillon platoon will offer a sufficient performance, not only in LF, but also at #2 in the batting order.

I agree with you, but if our bench guys are going to play LF then who will be on the bench? I would still like to see the Brewers sign/trade for a LF, so that when the inevitable injuries come, we can put Gross/Dillon in and still be competitive.

[dadofandrew]

Loretta would be a perfect complement to Counsell as a back up IF and a professional hitter off the bench.

[Zycho32]

Yeah, I can see Loretta being the backup MIF, I just think he's got enough remaining batting skills to play a proficent and professional #2 in the order, hence wanting him to start at 3B while Braun moves to LF.

[TooLiveBrew]

Doesn't it stink that the really valid "move Braun away from 3B" thoughts are essentially irrelevant? It's such an obvious way to improve the team, but it's not being seriously considered yet. I do think Braun will be slightly better in the field in 2008, if only due to normal variance. It'd be hard for him to not improve at least slightly.

[Zycho32]

I suspect it's due to the lack of available alternatives at 3B which are of the following;

 

1. Sufficient batting ability

2. Sufficient fielding ability

3. Easily available, and capable of taking the job long-term.

[theavrock]

What about Bill Hall???

[twobrewers]

Just adding the ZIPS has Dillon projected at .787 OPS - almost identical to what they had for Jenkins.

 

[Zycho32]

Indeed, what about Bill Hall? We move him to 3B, we need to do one of the following things.

 

1. Entrust CF to a Free Agent/Trade Acquisition, or a full season of Tony Gwynn jr.

2. Shift Corey Hart to CF, and acquire a Free Agent for RF.

3. Let the Gross/Dillon platoon take its licks at RF while Hart shifts to CF.

 

 

So far the only Free Agent acquistions in the batting side, that are reasonable, can fill potential weaknesses on the field, and can bat #2 are Kenny Lofton and Mark Loretta, at least from my point of view. Both are probably stopgaps who'll be here for one or two years, tying down a position until somebody better comes along.

 

You pick Lofton, he either takes LF until LaPorta comes along- which I guess is the best possible selling point- or he goes to CF, Hall goes to 3B, and Braun to LF.

 

You pick Loretta, you just move Braun to LF and wait from there.

 

I must be wearing Brewers Goggles then, because of Loretta's past experiences with the team. Hmm.

[theavrock]

I'd be more than happy to take the "licks" with #3. I think they would equal and possibly outproduce the Menchkins platoon we had last year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think they would equal and possibly outproduce the Menchkins platoon we had last year.

 

That'd be only based on Jenkins's disappointing year. Mench creamed lefties once again.

[theavrock]

Oh boy here we go again. Yeah he did, all while posting another anemic OBP year once again. We don't need guys like Mench in our lineup. His stat line looks good yes but we need more guys who will work the count and get on base in front of Ryan, Prince and Corey. These are things that Dillon and Gross do well. Small sample size yes but Dillon destroyed LHP. I cant see any reason (and no one on this board has provided one yet either) why he wont continue to hit Lefties well.

 

The guy hit over .550 and OPS 1.414. Obviously that is not sustainable over a long season but that does give some evidence that he can be servicable as the RH side of a platoon. Remember the RH side sees much less action than the LH side. And last but not least there is the money factor. Dillon will make much less than the $5 million estimated by others here that Mench will get bumped up to.

 

So in all no that would not only be based on Jenkin's dissapointing year.

[theavrock]

Oh and BTW Mench's ZiPS OPS projection comes in at a whopping .739 which is less than Dillon's. Looks like BBTF is seeing the same regression that I have over the last three years for Mench.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok, the point here which I have to concede as a given is Yost. Avrock, an OPS north of .900 v. LHP for the last three years is by no means a regression. It's a manager's fault for incorrectly utilizing a player. IF we could rely that Mench's ABs v. RHP would be minimal, then there's no problem. And what lineup do you have where Mench bats ahead of any of Braun, Fielder, or Hart? The highest he bats is 6th. And he slugs the crap outta the ball against LHP, which is precisely what you want (SLG) from your 6 hitter.

 

Oh and BTW Mench's ZiPS OPS projection comes in at a whopping .739 which is less than Dillon's. Looks like BBTF is seeing the same regression that I have over the last three years for Mench.

 

What regression is that? We need him to specialize v. LHP. Check the splits below (included 3-yr. splits for ya)

So in all no that would not only be based on Jenkin's dissapointing year.

 

Pray tell, what's disappointing about this line?: .314/.343/.558/.901 (3-yr. split of .305/.361/.558/.919)

Compare that with Jenkins v. RHP: .262./326/.482/.808

 

I was talking about splits in a platoon. Sure, .808 isn't bad, but clearly the superior portion of the LF platoon was Mench - including a better OBP. Quite frankly, the player that needs to prove he can hit MLB LHP over more ABs is Dillon. Check out his minor league stats, and what you'll find is a player that was average to good before being way older than most of his peers in the minors.

 

Don't get me wrong, I love having Dillon as a solid second choice. But no way he's superior to Mench v. LHP. Is he better overall? Quite likely. But there's a place on our bench for both these guys. Mench just happens to be the better (& proven) option v. LHP.

[theavrock]

TLB I think we are going to have to agree to disagree.

 

Mench's OPS Has been trending downwards (for both vs. LHP and total) since '04 when he posted a 1.034 OPS vs LHP (all three factors that go into this stat have also been going down as well Slugging and OBP and average). I would post the stats but I am sure you know where to find them. I am not saying his numbers when given favorable matchups are not good because they are. I am arguing that Dillon will produce those same numbers at a fraction of the cost. I would much rather spend $5 million on the bullpen when Dillon can play more positions, hits righties better and is way cheaper. Especially when all other things are considered equal ( I am considering this, you are not)

 

I have no lineup that bats Mench 2nd. I do however know that a weakness of our team last year was OBP. That is where a Dillon/Gross platoon would excel vs. a Mench and anybody platoon.

 

As far as the Jenkins vs. Mench line. I was not arguing that Mench had a worse year than Jenkins. I was simply saying that Dillon also destroys LHP. My statement that Dillon/Gross would outproduce Mench and Jenkins had nothing to do with Jenkins. If all four players were still to be with the team I would be saying the same thing.

 

Lastly looking at his stats from the minors I see a guy who put up Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder type numbers for most of three seasons without the name recognition (I am not comparing the players, but their minor league numbers are the same if thats what you want me to look at). Age has nothing to do with it. If that were the case everyone who simply stays in the minors for a long time would be lighting up the Pacific Coast League.

 

Let me break it down really simply for you.

 

1. Dillon kills LHP, Mench kills LHP (they both do

2. Dillon is much cheaper

3. Dillon is a much more flexible player

4. Dillon's significant advantage in OBP is more than enough to make up for any shortcomings you are arguing he may have as the RH side of a platoon.

 

Your argument if I am correct

1. Mench is better because he has been in the big leagues longer (even though his numbers have declined since '04).

2. Dillon isnt as good because he took advantage of being older than everyone in the minors.

3. Mench in the 6 spot is exactly what we need.

 

Maybe I am wrong if those are not your points, but that is what I gather from your posts. If I am wrong please tell me. If I am not then there is no way I see Mench as "simply" the better option against LHP.

[JJHardy7]

avrock, the main thing I agree with in your post is the cost. $5 million for Mench vs. a cheap Dillon...I'll take Dillon and shore up other areas. I don't think there is that big of a swing either way for these guys, so why not save $5 million?

[Fatter than Joey]

Don't get me wrong, I love having Dillon as a solid second choice. But no way he's superior to Mench v. LHP. Is he better overall?

 

I think that the problem with Mench is that he is probably going to get a 1 to 1 ratio (roughly) of bats against LHP v. RHP -- Therefore

while he mashes LHP you have to deal with his ~.560 OPS against RHP. So for every solid AB you almost have to trade an automatic out.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd trade Ned Yost for an automatic out. Guess in admitting this was a shortcoming intially in my post, I should have realized I can't dream it away.

 

TLB I think we are going to have to agree to disagree.

 

Sounds good.

 

Dillon's significant advantage in OBP is more than enough to make up for any shortcomings you are arguing he may have as the RH side of a platoon.

 

No way to disagree with this.

 

The one thing I don't agree with is the trending downward. I'm purely focusing on numbers v. LHP, that seems to be one fundamental difference in our approaches. V. LHP, Mench actually posted higher than his .877 v. LHP from 2006. Any decline would seem to correlate with his age.

 

Your point about OBP is very good.

[theavrock]

I thought that with age the players got better and could take advantage of the younger players http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

2004 was Mench's career year vs LHP when he posted

.319 .390.646 OPS of 1.036

 

then in 2005

.296 .380 .600 OPS of .980

 

then in 2006

.303 .360 .513 OPS of .877

 

(his BA is higher but look at the drop in OBP even with a higher OBP. This is where MEnch starts to show that his OBP is heavily tied to his BA never a good sign, think Jaun Pierre)

 

last year in '07

.314 .343 .558 OPS of .901

 

you are right he is not going down in every category. It was late at night when I was reading his stat line. I do still see a downward trend for him in the area we need most OBP. More importantly I see someone whose OBP is tied heavily into his BA, meaning if he doesnt get hits he isn't getting on base (not taking his walks), while his slugging is also coming down.

 

Its just that I see an option that will post similar numbers, give us more defensive flexibility and will be the role player (good OBP) we need. All for a fraction of the cost. I am not saying Mench is not a good option as a platoon player I am just saying that we have a better option.