The Future of Joe Dillon

[twobrewers]

I think Joe Dillon is going to play a large role this year in the success of the Brewers. He will likely be the backup at 1B, 2B, offensive backup at 3B, as well as a backup OF. His versitility will likely allow the Brewers to carry 12 pitchers - which hopefully will keep our bullpen from wearing down in 2008.

How does Joe project now that he has (apparently) but his injury ridden history behind him?

In 2004 while splitting time between AA and AAA for Florida he posted the following
520 AB 122 Runs 171 Hits 46 Double 7 Triple 39 HR 117 RBI 60 BB 114 K .329 .398 .669 1.067

In 2005 while playing entirely AAA he posted the following...
350 AB 80 Runs 126 Hits 21 Doubles 1 Triple 24 HR 72 RBI 57 BB 59 K .360 .459 .631 1.090

In 2007 while playing for Nashville he had the following AAA numbers...
319 AB 69 Runs 101 Hits 28 Doubles 2 Triples 20 HR 73 RBI 50 BB 34 K .317 .405 .605 1.010

And in 2007 while playing for the Brewers...
76 AB 12 Runs 26 Hits 8 Doubles 2 Triples 0 HR 10 RBI 5 BB 14 K . 342 .390 .500 .890

Those are some very impressive numbers - regardless of how old he was at the time. He has had an OBP of around .400 at every level. Is there any chance he works on OF in spring training and platoons with Gross? Or wins the job outright? How is he defensively in the IF - good enough to take over 3B or 2B and move Braun or Weeks?

How are the Brewers going to use him this year? How do you think he should be used this year? And what do you project statwise from him?

[Tbadder]

I just gotta believe that if Joe was as good as his numbers he'd already have logged lots of major league time. There's too much at stake for managers and GMs to whiff on minor leaguers talent. If those numbers, as impressive as they are, really meant something he'd be asking for millions in arbitiration already.

 

Now I understand your argument--you're projecting him as a valuable bench player--and there's merit there, but why not sooner for this guy--I'm suspicious that he can contribute during the course of a full year.

[sbrylski]

I'm hoping he's not penciled into any type of starting or platoon role, meaning we have people better. He's a perfect 13th man, his flexibility gives us the flexibility to carry what ever we want in the 25th spot. He should begin the year as a pure bench player.

 

Statistically, conservatively I'll hope for a .290 / .340 / .420 / .760 type line - but he definintely could post something into the 800s.

[TerraceReserved]

I think Joe could contribute next year being a utility guy, but how much is tough to tell. He had a .419 BABIP, so I think it's inevitable that his stats will regress to the mean next year and his .342 / .390 / .500 line will drop considerably. Marcels had him at a .737 OPS before the year, and he probably is a .750ish hitter in the bigs. It's definitely possible for him to get a low .800 OPS, and I hope he does, but it's not all that likely.

[pogokat]

those impressive minor league numbers all occcured when joe was in his late 20's and early 30's...so, he's at least as good as kevin orie...

 

i like the guy...but you just can't look t minor league numbers put up by a 31 year old and project that he's going to be a star in the majors...

 

if this was the case, we should definiteely bring RA Dickey back next year

[zurch1818]

By stricktly looking at the comparisons, does this hold true?

 

Joe Dillion > Trent Durrington for the 25th spot

[JJHardy7]

I don't think the original post was implying that Dillon would be a star in the majors. I would love to see RA Dickey back in AAA next year. He's a good safety net/emergency start guy to have and a good locker room presence in Nashville.

[theavrock]

Joe was drafted in the 7th round and had numbers that looked like any other prospect for a while. Struggled for the first year in A ball, then started to come on and was promoted to AA where he hit fairly well between AA and AAA. Then in 2001 he hurt his back and was hampered by that for '01 and '02. He retired to coach baseball at Texas Tech after that, then decided he didn't give himself a fair shot at playing pro ball and signed on with the Marlins farm teams. He bounced around between AA and AAA from '04 to '05 posting great numbers (as two brewers has already alluded to). Then in '06 was sold to the Yomiri Giants and played the whole season for the Tokyo team. I think we are all farmiliar with what he did in '07.

 

Just thought everyone should know his history before he is written off. He looked like a decent prospect and then hurt his back. He retired when he probably shouldn't have and then has been posting solid numbers in the minors ever since. Not only that but he looked great when he was in the big leagues. Yeah he has taken an unusual route to get here, but he has an established track record. This isnt someone old guy who has toiled in the minors and had one good season when called up.

 

I think he should be penciled in as the right handed part of a platoon with Gabe Gross and spell other players as needed. I see him getting a little more playing time than Mench did last year and more if he continues to prove he is worthy of it. He is the perfect stop gap until LaPorta is ready in '09. Who knows maybe he will just keep getting better. He hits for average and some power, takes walks and plays solid D. The Brewers need as many guys like that as they can get.

[trwi7]

By stricktly looking at the comparisons, does this hold true?

 

Joe Dillion > Trent Durrington for the 25th spot

 

Yeah although Dillon would have to make me love him like I love Durrington. I don't recall Dillon ever hitting a game tying homerun like Durrington did against the Dodgers. I was at that game, Ned got ejected and I was close enough to the field to hear him yelling. Good stuff.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[JohnBriggs12]

Dillon should have inside track for roster spot that was occupied by Graffanino last year. There's no reason to think he can't do as well as Graf.

[Invader3K]

Joe Dillon would be a very good utility player, if he continues to play like he performed last year (granted, only in 76 MLB ABs). I don't think he should really be a viable option as a starter or platoon player, though.

[TooLiveBrew]

Joe Dillon will provide quality depth for us in 2008, but not start any more than a fill-in basis. His approach at the plate is a welcome addition to the squad. I'd guess along the lines of the .750 OPS that others have postulated. He could end up over .800, but not likely.

[dadofandrew]

The Brewers would carry 12 pitchers regardless. Dillon looked good in many ways, but he will never improve. He might be a platoon guy at best, nice reserve though.

[And That]

Dillon has the club made right now. The only way he doesn't make it is if someone like Callix Çrabbe has such a good spring, they can't send him down, or if they for some reason sign a Dillon duplicate, and he outplays Dillon.

 

I like his swing, and don't see him as anything close to a liability on the bench, though I see his starting ability being limited to second base at best.

 

It's really nice to see a guy like Joe make it, because for every one of him, there are dozens who don't get the opportunity.

[Baldkin]

I love Crazy Joe Dillon.

 

Why is he Crazy Joe? I don't know. My friends and I started calling him that when he got called up.

 

I see him working a lot in the OF in the off season, being a righty bat off the bench, and a guy who can spell Rickie and Prince when they need it.

[sbrylski]

Crazy Joe Dillon is likely a play off Crazy Joe Davola...maybe subconsiously?

 

http://www.siyumhaseinfeld.com/images/chars/crazyjoe.jpg

 

I know you badmouthed me to the execs at NBC, put the kibosh on my deal. Now I'm gonna put the kibosh on you. You know I've kiboshed before, and I will kibosh again.

[twobrewers]

So, the general consensus seems to be that he will likely be a pretty good bench player capable of hitting around a .750 OPS and maybe have a good year and post a .800 OPS.

And yet everyone seems to act as though it were no big deal?

Craig Counsell has a career OPS of .689
Rickie Weeks just had his best OPS this past year and only had a .807

And looking at outfield replacements for Menchkins...
Kenny Lofton has a career OPS of .794
Randy Winn has an OPS of .769
Austin Kearns has a career OPS of .810

My point is, if he is capable of putting up around a .750 OPS - why can't he play in our outfield on a regular basis or be a starter? That certainly sounds like a better option to me than giving up prospects and overpay for Randy Winn.

Last year, before offering Graffy arbitration we thought some team would swoop in and make him an offer to be their starting 2B. Seems to me Dillon is a lot cheaper and likely to produce equal to that of Graffy. I think Dillon might end up being one of Doug's little gems.

[logan82]

I think he would be a good bench player, but that's about it. It would be nice to have a good backup to Prince so he could get a couple more days off here and there.

To be honest I am not sure how much that extra pitcher would help though. It would be a Dessens quality pitcher and that isn't what we need.

[twobrewers]

It would be a Dessens quality pitcher and that isn't what we need.

For the record, I think we could use a Dessen quality pitcher. Part of the problem last year was we didn't use him enough when games were out of hand.

 

Instead we started using Villanueva and Wise to pick up too many extra innings - wearing both of them out.

 

Once the game is pretty well out of reach, I just want to save arms for future use.

[clancyphile]

Mench could get us a bit better than Dessens, I think.

 

Dillon as a backup at second, third, first, and left is a good option.

 

What sort of bench are we talking about, though? Assuming Gross is the 3rd OF, that leaves:

Dillon, Gwynn, and Counsell so far, with Rivera and Rottino the other front-runners.

[monty57]

I've never been good at projections, but if Dillon could post a .750 OPS, as many here seem to believe, he would be the 14th best OPS LF in baseball, behind Luis Gonzalez and ahead of Jason Bay. If he platoons with Gross, who hit .787 vs. righties, they could have an above average left field platoon.

 

I still think they'll fill their LF and relief pitching holes by trading SP. I also believe Mench will either be traded or simply let go, as they don't seem to be willing to pay him $5MM+ for his part-time work. Therefore, I believe Dillon and Gross will be the 4/5 OF & primary LH and RH bats off the bench. However, if Melvin can't find a solid everyday LF in trade, I wouldn't hate seeing a Dillon/Gross platoon, freeing up money for other positions.

[TooLiveBrew]

if Dillon could post a .750 OPS, as many here seem to believe, he would be the 14th best OPS LF in baseball, behind Luis Gonzalez and ahead of Jason Bay.

Keep in mind, especially with your inclusion of Jason Bay, that it's just one season. If Dillon would have been able to sustain a .750 OPS over full-time ABs (something I personally doubt) in 2007, then yes, he would have posted the 14th best LF OPS.

 

What I consider when discussing Dillon is that he'll benefit from not being an everyday or full-time platoon player, so we should utilize him in that way. Imho the best use for Dillon is as a super-sub, a la Hall. He can play 2B, along with a serviceable LF & 3B (iirc), and it'd help keep his ABs down & keep him free for PH appearances - his approach fits PH very well.

[dadofandrew]

Dillon can play 1B/2B/3B/LF/RF all capably, and SS as well, though I'm sure his range would be Loretta like.

[theavrock]

"Keep in mind, especially with your inclusion of Jason Bay, that it's just one season. If Dillon would have been able to sustain a .750 OPS over full-time ABs (something I personally doubt) in 2007, then yes, he would have posted the 14th best LF OPS."

Why do you doubt this? He has done nothing but for average and power since 2004. Yes most of that was in the minors but when he was called up he produced. instead of everyone here just saying that he wont do this that or the other thing, can we please get some explanations of why you guys think this and something that backs up those assumptions. Also he stated Jason Bay because thats the guy he was directly ahead of. He wasnt comparing him to Bay just saying thats where he would have ranked if had a .750 OPS.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why do you doubt this? He has done nothing but [hit] for average and power since 2004. Yes most of that was in the minors but when he was called up he produced. instead of everyone here just saying that he wont do this that or the other thing, can we please get some explanations of why you guys think this and something that backs up those assumptions.

At age 24 (2000) in the PCL (a hitter's league), Dillon mustered only a .766 OPS with KC's AAA affiliate. He spent the entirety of 2001 (age 25) at KC's AA - .838 OPS. 2002 he spent all but 18 ABs (AAA) at Texas's AA affiliate - .778 OPS.

 

Then he had his injury-related shortly lived retirement, and returned with Florida's organization. Only after this return did he start posting impressive numbers - in his age 28 & 29 seasons in AA & AAA. He fizzled in his cup with the Marlins, and spent 2006 in Japan. He returned to success in Nashville in 2007, but are you saying we now know more about Dillon from three seasons in the minors over the age of 25 combined with 76 ABs with the Crew?

 

It's not just an elitist (not your word, I know) projection to say he's not going to post an .890 OPS or even an .800 OPS again in ML. If you want to really know about a player beyond his MLB years, thebaseballcube.com is a good starting point resource. It's pretty easy to look up guys and form your own opinion(s) there.

 

EDIT: It should probably be noted that Dillon's production skyrocketed in his late 20s, following an injury... sound familiar? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif His best HR/AB ratio prior to 2004 was 15/268 from his first professional season (1997). 2004 - 39/520. 2005 - 25/386. 2007 - 20/395 (all 20 came in his 319 ABs @ Nashville).