Guess this is about the level of name we would hear... Randy Winn

[Robideaux]

I think that Winn is a upgrade over a platoon.

Why?

 

I can see a few arguments in favor of that.

1. Winn will outproduce Gross/Mench (I think that is unlikely)

 

2. Winn's defense makes us for a potential slight downgrade in offense? (I haven't looked at the numbers)

 

3. Yost doesn't know how to correctly platoon players, and Winn would save us all from 100+ largely unproductive

ABs by Mench against RHP

 

4. You don't like platoons

 

I am skeptical of 1 & 2. Argument #3 worries me (I'm still bitter about the Cub's game). Four is a pretty facile argument, but one that many hold.

[JohnBriggs12]

Remember with Winn, you'd get a replacement for both Jenkins and Mench, roughly $13 million in salary for just over $8 million.

 

Winn has been around long enough that he's likely to produce close to his career averages. His OBP in 2007 was .353 and career-wise it's .345. Those numbers are significantly better than what either Jenkins (.319) or Mench (.305) put up in 2007.

 

True, his worst season was 2006 but even that can be explained. He likely put a lot of pressure on himself after signing a $23.25 million contract prior to that season. It was also the year that Bonds missed a ton of games so Winn didn't have him protecting him in the lineup as much. In fact that year, Winn batted mostly leadoff, and he's more of a number 2 hitter. It's likely batting him second ahead of Braun and Fielder will affect him much the same as when Bonds batted behind him in SF.

 

The more I think of it, the more I'm warming to the idea. If they signed a guy who just batted from the left side alone, they might have to keep Mench, or go out and get another RH option assuming they don't trust Dillon in that role. With Winn, they get two players in one. That he doesn't quite hit like a corner OF doesn't bother me in the least with this lineup. We all know Hall has the ability to hit like a corner OF as does the entire infield. Besides, I think Winn will hit more HR in Miller Park than he hit in SF, and he did have 42 doubles last year.

[And That]

Remember with Winn, you'd get a replacement for both Jenkins and Mench, roughly $13 million in salary for just over $8 million.

Or, you keep Mench and Gross for $5 mil and save yourself $3 million on top of the $5 million and get virtually the same production. Not to mention what talent you'd have to give up to get Winn in the first place. The more I think about it, without some major salary relief from the Giants, this is a total non-starter.

 

[MoneyballMan]

Remember with Winn, you'd get a replacement for both Jenkins and Mench, roughly $13 million in salary for just over $8 million.

 

Winn has been around long enough that he's likely to produce close to his career averages. His OBP in 2007 was .353 and career-wise it's .345. Those numbers are significantly better than what either Jenkins (.319) or Mench (.305) put up in 2007.

 

True, his worst season was 2006 but even that can be explained. He likely put a lot of pressure on himself after signing a $23.25 million contract prior to that season. It was also the year that Bonds missed a ton of games so Winn didn't have him protecting him in the lineup as much. In fact that year, Winn batted mostly leadoff, and he's more of a number 2 hitter. It's likely batting him second ahead of Braun and Fielder will affect him much the same as when Bonds batted behind him in SF.

 

The more I think of it, the more I'm warming to the idea. If they signed a guy who just batted from the left side alone, they might have to keep Mench, or go out and get another RH option assuming they don't trust Dillon in that role. With Winn, they get two players in one. That he doesn't quite hit like a corner OF doesn't bother me in the least with this lineup. We all know Hall has the ability to hit like a corner OF as does the entire infield. Besides, I think Winn will hit more HR in Miller Park than he hit in SF, and he did have 42 doubles last year.

I agree - the more I read through this thread and think about it, the more I am warming to the idea (vs when I saw the title). It will all depend on what we have to give up to get him. It has to be more than Gwynn, but I'd hate to see them give up Parra. It's not a terrible option for the reasons you state above.

[homer]

Plus Winn played basketball at Santa Clara with Steve Nash which means.......almost nothing.

[pogokat]

adding randy winn makes the team better...i think the trade would be one of our glut of minor league outfielders and maybe a claudio vargas...

 

maybe capuano...something expendable though...

 

having winn in LF and gross and Mench on the bench would be great...it's kind of like the counselnino thing last year...yeah, it was a little expensive...but it will make th team better...

 

im definitely in favor of this, especially since we shouldn't realistically see Laporta in MKE before 2009...

 

yeah, they are talking it up right now, but i don't think he should be up until 2009...

[And That]

adding randy winn makes the team better

If you say we should keep Gross and Mench on the bench, yes Winn makes the team better because he's replacing Gwynn. But is it really worth spending $16.5 million plus talent to upgrade Tony Gwynn Jr.'s roster spot?

 

Getting a guy like Church or Kearns just makes so much more sense.

[pogokat]

i want kearns more, but it makes the team better...

 

Mark A.'s gonna spend some cash this offseason...randy winn's a better buy than kenny lofton or mike cameron for the same cash...he's gonna play a full season and he doesn't have to sit out the first month because he's a speed freak

[colbyjack]

I'm guessing the part about LaPorta as a long-shot to make the big-league club out of spring training is more of Rosenthal's creation based on his progression to date than anything the Brewers were actually considering. Just a guess, but outside of clancy, I don't think anyone seriously thought LaPorta was a candidate to fill LF as early as next year.

 

Both JohnBriggs and pogo make good points about Winn, who would make this a better team despite being older and despite having somewhat of a hefty price tag attached. As pogo noted, I still would like to have someone like Mench come off the bench, and Gross for that matter, and overpaying to have that kind of talent from top to bottom on the roster would go a long way in improving the Brewers chances of making the playoffs next year. And with two years of Winn the Brewers wouldn't feel the need to rush LaPorta.

 

And yes, it's possible that Winn reverts to his '06 numbers, but it is also possible that he replicates or even improves upon his '07 numbers. And as Briggs noted, he would make a perfect #2 hitter.

 

And I agree that he's going to cost more than Gwynn. He's a good hitter, and a good big-leaguer, and will take an equally good big-leaguer to make this trade happen. According to the other reports the Giants are after big bats, which may make Gamel a potential candidate whether you like it or not. I still would like to see the possible trade expanded to include one of the Giants bullpen arms.

 

I wouldn't trade Parra to get him though. Gamel yes, just because Gamel is more expendable considering he seems to be blocked at nearly every position he profiles to be able to play.

[And That]

Lofton would not cost the Brewers anywhere close to $16.5 million.

[colbyjack]

If you say we should keep Gross and Mench on the bench, yes Winn makes the team better because he's replacing Gwynn. But is it really worth spending $16.5 million plus talent to upgrade Tony Gwynn Jr.'s roster spot?

 

I wouldn't view it as upgrading Tony Gwynn, I would view it more as replacing Jenkins, and the $16.5 million isn't just for '08, it's for '09 as well, and as much as I would love to see Gwynn, he's going to have a hard time coming close to Winn's numbers.

 

I agree that I would prefer Kearns and possibly Church, but I don't think it's going to be any easier acquiring Kearns, and Church isn't going to come for free either.

[twobrewers]

Lofton would not cost the Brewers anywhere close to $16.5 million.

Or any prospects.

 

I think Winn would make our team better. I just think giving up young talent and taking on salary isn't worth the marginal increase he will provide us.

[And That]

I wouldn't view it as upgrading Tony Gwynn, I would view it more as replacing Jenkins

 

It may just be semantics, but I see Gross as sliding into Jenkins' roster spot and Gwynn sliding into Gross' at the moment. If they do nothing else, Gwynn makes the team. If they get another guy and don't get rid of anyone else, Gwynn doesn't make the team. Jenkins was at no point not going to make the team, which is moreso the case for Gross coming into '08 than Gwynn.

 

I agree that I would prefer Kearns and possibly Church, but I don't think it's going to be any easier acquiring Kearns, and Church isn't going to come for free either.

 

I'm much more fine trading Gamel for Kearns (and maybe even Church). They are also both on the right side of 30. I don't love Kearns' contract, but at worst he's $2.5 mil less expensive than Winn and has a better OBP.

[sbrylski]

I second the Lofton or Grench>>>Winn, all things considered.

 

But - I'm not going to take this too seriously right now. Melvin has talked to nearly, if not every team in the league about their outfielders. We have more targets than Randy Winn. This is just one possibilty that the media caught wind of. I'll get worried when I start hearing non-speculation and actual names being thrown around on both sides. Worried, because Winn is not an improvement over what we have. If we give Capuano up for Winn, I'll be angry. I'm not saying that its not what it will take, just that its too high of a price for us to pay.

 

The good I see in Winn is that his RZR for RF last season in a very sizeable sample was .916 - which would have been good for best in the NL among all qualifiers had he gotten the few extra innings to qualify. RZR has him better than average in CF, and one of the best in the corners since he went to San Fransisco.

 

However - offensively, financially, and overall - not enthralled. More of a "we couldn't get the guys we really wanted, so we had to settle for Winn" type.

[MNBrew]

If a deal like the Vargas & a B prospect for Winn would work (Bush could be in there instead of Vargas, but I prefer to keep Bush), I think you could still pick up Lofton as your 4th starter, so to speak, and still be ahead dollars-wise.

 

add:

Winn = $8.25M

Lofton = $5M max, maybe more like $3.5M

TOTAL = ~$13M

 

subtract:

Jenkins = $9M

Mench = $4.5M or whatever

Vargas = ~$4M

TOTAL = $17.5M or so

 

For an realistic net savings of $4.5M, That would also leave Gross, Dillon, & Gwynn as your 5th - 7th outfielders. Maybe it's not the most likely, but it's at least quite favorable math and not the most ridiculous of the options out there. Ostensibly this would still leave some money and assets (as in personnel) leftover to address other needs (bullpen, bullpen, bullpen, and maybe my favorite Mark Loretta or Jeff Cirillo as an IF reserve, although I've rambled about that elsewhere).

 

Randy Winn isn't the most "sexy" name out there. But he's a pretty proven commodity, still a solid player, and a nice veteran presence. His appeal is not his pop but his overall approach to hitting -- making contact, getting on base, and I love his 42 doubles last year -- which is EXACTLY what the Brewers need to improve.

[bjkrautk]

Wynn's 3-year (2005-07) splits show a difference of .014 against RHP (.798) over LHP (.784). His Slugging % in the same sample is identical (.448). To me, that's not a whole lot of difference....but it's also not tremendous production for a corner OF spot. And given his age, he's more likely to put up a sub-.800 OPS than he is to overachieve.

 

He's not the player that I'd want, but is at least an option to replace Jenkins for 1-2 years. (This is an example of why I'd rather have just paid Jenkins the $9 mil. for next season, rather than try to acquire someone else for a short-term rental.) That said, I would assume that if the Brewers have to give up a prospect of any importance, the Giants will be eating a significant portion of that contract (a la the Koskie trade with Toronto).

 

ZacJack for Winn ( + NTBNL, cash)?

[brettac1]

I think guys along the lines of Jackson or Gwynn are all it would cost them, which really is nothing. I'd imagine the Giants kind of want to just get out of his contract. I'd bet they'll pick up at least some of the contract.

 

I'm not sure it's a great idea, but I truly do like the chances of a 33/34 year old Winn outproducing a 39/40 year old Lofton next season.

 

Kearns is the guy I want the most, and I think I'd rather take my chances on Gross/??? in a platoon than Winn, but there are worse things.

[MNBrew]

Maybe it's 'cause I'm not a stat-head (not meant derogatorily), but I hear a lot about the .800 OPS thing as an important performance point.

 

I just looked up Kearns, Church, and Crawford.

 

None of them have a career OPS over .800. All are somewhere in the .780 ballpark. Recent years have seen them each slightly over .800, but not anywhere close to .850. For the most part they're not 20+ HR/yr. hitters or 100 RBI guys. Other than Kearns (70+ in '07), none of them seem to be base-on-balls machines, either.

 

Yet in other parts of this & other similar discussions, we hear about the "corner OF production." None of those guys fit that stereotype. And so far the message from Command Central in Milwaukee is that neither Hall nor Braun are going to LF.

 

Somewhere in all of this I'm not connecting all these dots. Or maybe they're all frequently heard perspectives but not necessarily all complementary. Can someone help me out here? And, tying it back to this thread, other than age and some degree of salary, how are any of these guys that much better than Randy Winn? I don't ask critically. I hear the various points. I'm trying to understand if and how they all fit together.

[sbrylski]

Brew, Kearns and Church have been playing in a pitcher friendly ballpark. Their road splits are better and could be more indicative of their future preformance in neutral Miller Park. Winn also plays in a pitcher park, but his splits since '05 are quite balanced.

 

Also, age and salary are huge factors. Those are the main reasons they are better than Winn.

[brettac1]

Kearns is also an elite defensive RF, using most metrics.

[reillymcshane]

Winn would be fine - I like that he's a switch hitter. His OPS over the past three years is .798 as a lefthanded hitter, .784 as a righty. He'd be a good, professional hitter. Is he worth $8 million/year? No. But he's a solid player with skills the team could use. The key is if we give up something quality, we have to get substantial $$$ relief. If we have to pay the salary, we shouldn't have to give up a lot.

 

I would like to see him play CF, however, and move Hall to 3B, with Braun going to a corner OF slot. Or we move Cory to CF and have Winn play LF, with Braun in RF.

 

I'd rather break Braun in as an OF in 2008 than 2009. Perhaps the team thinks he's still going to be a legit third baseman, but I just don't see that. But if we leave him at 3B in 2008, and he stinks, we'll have to move him in 2009. And if LaPorte breaks in around 2009 as people seem to think he will, then we could potentially have Braun in RF in 2009 for the first time, and LaPorte in LF - who's going to be learning the position next year for the first time. It could be a really bad OF with both guys so new to the position. I think Braun will be fine out there in a year, as he's fast and athletic. I don't see LaPorte as being much more than a passable OF - at best. Maybe I'm underselling him, however.

 

Honestly, I think Gross and Mench could handle LF okay next year, but a guy like Winn wouldn't be a bad option. I can see both arguments.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Interesting...in the recent past most teams would be likely to give up Winn for almost nothing just to get out from his contract. But this is the Giants, who aren't most teams, who are losing Bonds and his contract, and who frankly mystify me in many of their personnel priorities. I think Winn is still a very good defender, and likely to be adequate offensively...he fits the 'professional hitter' profile to some extent.

 

I'd guess that they want major league talent or guys who are ready, rather than A-ball prospects, which probably means something from the pool including Bush, Capuano, Gwynn, though to my eyes they need hitters way more than they need pitchers or slick defenders. I'd guess that they'd love to have Bill Hall, and it seems to me his name came up elsewhere with respect to the Giants.

[sbrylski]

Kearns is also an elite defensive RF, using most metrics.

I was going to bring it up, but RZR has Winn as better than even Kearns in RF.

[brettac1]

Wow, I guess I didn't even bother to look him up. Laziness on my part, slipping in my old age.

 

Still, age and salary are two really good reasons in their own right.

[DHonks]

First off, I wanted Winn several years ago as a AAA outfielder for the DRays. He plays good defense, walks some, gets some homers, and hits plenty of doubles.

 

Secondly, I like Winn cause he went to SCU, and played collegiate basketball alongside Steve Nash.

 

Thirdly, Brett, Lofton will be having his 40/41 season next year. Not a big correction, but just pointing out that he'll open the season at 40 years old.